• 응용통계연구
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• 제34권3호
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• pp.347-373
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• 2021

지난 50여 년 동안 우리나라의 사망률 감소 패턴에 대한 탐색적 연구에 의하면 연령별 사망률이 모든 연령에서 감소했지만, 특정한 사망률이 개선되고 있는 패턴은 연령과 기간에 따라 다르다는 것을 알 수 있다. 여자가 남자보다 사망률 개선이 뚜렷하고 특히 시간이 지나면서 특정그룹에서의 사망률 개선이 두드러짐에 따라 전반적으로 사망 시간 추세에 구조적인 변화가 존재함을 확인하였다. 이에 본 연구에서는 우리나라 여자 사망률 자료를 이용하여 미래 사망률 예측을 위해 코호트 효과를 고려한 다양한 확률적 사망률 모형을 살펴보았다. 또한 분석 결과를 바탕으로 2067년까지 연령별 사망률과 예측기대수명을 작성하고 통계청(KOSIS)에서 제공하는 장래 연령별 사망률과 기대수명과 비교하였다. 자료이용기간에 따라 최적의 모형이 상이하나 적합력과 예측력을 전반적으로 고려했을 때 우리나라 여자 사망률은 코호트 효과를 고려한 PLAT 모형이 적절하다 볼 수 있을 것이다.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제14권3호
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• pp.2067-2070
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• 2013

Background/Aim: Stomach cancer is the second most common cause of death from all malignant tumors in the world (third in men, fifth in women), with a strong decreasing trend in most developed countries. The aim of this descriptive epidemiological study was to analyze mortality of stomach cancer in Serbia, excluding the Province of Kosovo, in the 1991-2009 period. Materials and Methods: In data analysis, we used mortality rates which were standardized directly using those of the world population as a standard. In order to analyze the mortality trend from stomach cancer, linear trend and regression analysis were used. Confidence intervals (CIs) for the average age-adjusted and age-specific mortality rates were assessed with 95% level of probability. Mortality data were derived from the data file of the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia. Results: During the 1991-2009 period, a significant downward trend in mortality of stomach cancer was recorded in Serbia (y=9.78 - 0.13x, p=0.000; average annual percent change was -6.3 (95%CI, -7.8 to - 4.8). During the same period, a significant decrease in mortality trend was found both in male (y=14.13 - 0.20x; p=0.000; % change was -7.7 (95%CI, -10.9 to -4.5) and female populations (y=6.27 - 0.08x; p=0.000; % change was - 4.4 (95%CI, -5.3 to -3.6). Conclusion: Decreasing trends in mortality from stomach cancer in Serbia are similar to those in most developed countries.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제28권6호
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• pp.611-626
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• 2021

Marital status has been identified as an important risk factor affecting adult mortality. Many studies have found that marriage has positive effects on mortality and increases life expectancy. Since most pension contracts providing retirement income are provided to married couples, mortality assumption for actuarial valuation based on the entire population is likely to overestimate the actual mortality of the group of beneficiaries specified in the contracts. This study considered the differences in mortality according to marital status to analyze the length and value of the payments of a typical pension contract for a married couple. The study quantified the effect on actuarial measurements of considering marital status in mortality assumptions with a multi-state model framework using Korean experience mortality data organized by marital status. The results of analysis indicate that considering marital status in mortality assumptions improves mortality risk management.

• 한국인구학
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• 제9권1호
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• pp.14-31
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• 1986

This study shows trends and age-sex patterns of mortality in Korea, based on adjusted death registration data during 1956∼1980. Description on the data-the types of errors and their methods of adjustment-are presented elsewhere (Kim, 1986). Crude death rates have declined in 20 years to 7.0 in 1976∼1980, almost half the level of 13.0 in 1956∼1960. Mortality of females declined faster than males, especially at older ages. Substantial differences in provincial mortality are observed based on the expectation of life at birth. The difference between the highest and the lowest provinces is 9.2 years for males and 8.3 years for females during 1976∼1980. This study presents two interesting features of age-sex patterns of mortality in Korea. One feature is higher female mortality than males during childhood periods. However, infant mortality is higher for males than for females throughout the period, though the difference is much smaller than is expected from various model life tables. Another feature is the rapid rise in mortality for males after age 40. This pattern is found to be existed throughout the period 1956∼1980. Further studies are recommended to establish its causal linkage to traditional sex role (as main bread winner) and health behavior (smoking and drinking) of males and recent rapid industrialization in Korea.

• Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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• 제59권5호
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• pp.485-491
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• 2016

Objective : The aims of the Korean Neuro-Trauma Data Bank System (KNTDBS) are to evaluate and improve treatment outcomes for brain trauma, prevent trauma, and provide data for research. Our purpose was to examine the mortality rates following traumatic brain injury (TBI) in a retrospective study and to investigate the sociodemographic variables, characteristics, and causes of TBI-related death based on data from the KNTDBS. Methods : From 2010 to 2014, we analyzed the data of 2617 patients registered in the KNTDBS. The demographic characteristics of patients with TBI were investigated. We divided patients into 2 groups, survivors and nonsurvivors, and compared variables between the groups to investigate variables that are related to death after TBI. We also analyzed variables related to the interval between TBI and death, mortality by region, and cause of death in the nonsurvivor group. Results : The frequency of TBI in men was higher than that in women. With increasing age of the patients, the incidence of TBI also increased. Among 2617 patients, 688 patients (26.2%) underwent surgical treatment and 125 patients (4.7%) died. The age distributions of survivors vs. nonsurvivor groups and mortality rates according the severity of the brain injury, surgical treatment, and initial Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) scores were statistically significantly different. Among 125 hospitalized nonsurvivors, 70 patients (56%) died within 7 days and direct brain damage was the most common cause of death (80.8%). The time interval from TBI to death differed depending on the diagnosis, surgical or nonsurgical treatment, severity of brain injury, initial GCS score, and cause of death, and this difference was statistically significant. Conclusion : Using the KNTDBS, we identified epidemiology, mortality, and various factors related to nonsurvival. Building on our study, we should make a conscious effort to increase the survival duration and provide rapid and adequate treatment for TBI patients.

• 보건교육건강증진학회지
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• 제23권2호
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• pp.109-119
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• 2006

Objectives: A number of studies in economically developed countries have shown occurrence of stroke and cardiovascular disease to be inversely related to socioeconomic class. The purpose of this study is to investigate socioeconomic differentials in stroke and cardiovascular disease mortality in Korea. Methods: Two data from two sources, registry data from National Health Insurance Corporation and death certification data from National Statistics Office, were used to calculate mortality rate for five socioeconomic classes. Poisson regression analysis was used to calculate relative indices of inequality as a measure of mortality differentials between socioeconomic classes. Results: For males, graded socioeconomic differentials in mortality were observed with higher mortality rates related to lower socioeconomic class for intracerebral hemorrhage, cerebral infarct, hypertension, ischemic heart disease, myocardial infarct, and arrhythmia. The relative index of inequality for stroke and cardiovascular disease was 1.61(95% CI=1.54-1.68). For females, these differentials were observed for arrhythmia and intracerebral hemorrhage. The relative index of inequality was 1.06(95% CI=1.02-1.11). Conclusions: This socioeconomic differential in mortality, consistent with the results of other studies performed in economically developed countries suggest that Socioeconomic class can influence mortality regardless of the developmental stage of the country.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제15권5호
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• pp.2201-2204
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• 2014

Russian rates for melanoma incidence and mortality are relatively low as compared to some other white populations but the tumor is of increasing importance. In this paper, data are based on a retrospective descriptive analysis of melanoma epidemiology and clinicopathological characteristics in Krasnoyarsk Territory belonging to the Siberian Federal District of the Russian Federation. The age-adjusted incidence and mortality rates for the period 1996-2009 were determined with subsequent retrospective analysis of clinicopathological data of 103 primary melanoma cases. Our results showed that incidence and mortality rates in the region under consideration match the Russian national trends and correspond to epidemiological data of the countries of Eastern Europe. Stratification of melanoma cases by age, sex, clinicopathological state and localization revealed a prevalence of lesions on the trunk and lower extremities. Most melanomas diagnosed were of superficial spreading type and the third Clark's level of tumor invasion and stage II according to AJCC. In spite of comparatively low rates of incidence and mortality the trend to increase of melanoma cases in the region under consideration obviously calls for more attention and further investigation.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제16권5호
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• pp.1959-1964
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• 2015

Purpose: To investigate the distribution of liver cancer mortality as well as its developing trend from 1991 to 2012, forecast the future five-year trend, and provide a basis for the comprehensive prevention and management. Materials and Methods: Mortality data for liver cancer in China from 1991 to 2012 were used to describe characteristics and distribution of liver cancer mortality. Trend surface analysis was used to study the geographical distribution of liver cancer mortality. Curve estimation, time series modeling, gray modeling (GM) and joinpoint regression were used to predict and forecast future trends. Results: The mortality rate of liver cancer has constantly increased in China since 1991. Rates in rural areas are higher than in urban areas, and in males are higher than in females. In addition, our data predicted that the trend will continue to increase in the next 5 years. The age-specific mortality of liver cancer increases with age and peaks in the group of 80-84 years old. Geographical analysis showed the liver mortality rate was higher in the southeast provinces, such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Guangdong, and southwest regions like Guangxi Province. Conclusions: The standardized mortality rate of liver cancer in China has consistently increased from 1991 to 2012, and the upward trend is predicted to continue in the future. Much better prevention and management of liver cancer is needed in high mortality areas (the southwestern and southeastern parts of China) and high mortality age groups (80- to 84-year-olds), especially in rural areas.

• 보건행정학회지
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• 제28권1호
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• pp.15-22
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• 2018

Background: Health is affected by various local factors. This study aims to investigate the age-standardized mortality variation of Seoul as well as the characteristics of the factors related to the mortality variation. Methods: The Korea Community Health Survey data, Seoul Survey data, Seoul statistics, and e-regional indicators of the National Statistical Office were used. To investigate the basic boroughs standardized mortality variation in Seoul, external quotient, coefficient of variation (CV), and systematic component of variation (SCV) values were suggested; correlation analysis and multiple regression analysis were conducted to investigate the characteristics related to standardized mortality rate. Results: The highest and the lowest standardized mortality rate of Seoul by boroughs had as much as 1.4 times difference; a low level of variation was shown in CV by 8.2; and was shown in SCV by 79. As a result of the multiple regression analysis of the factors that affect standardized mortality variation, the higher the rate of householders with college or higher, the lower the standardized mortality rate, and the higher the high-risk drinking rate, the higher the standardized mortality rate. Of the two, the rate of householder with a degree equivalent or higher than college was shown to have the biggest impact, followed by high-risk drinking rate. Conclusion: We found a variation in age-standardized mortality rate of boroughs in Seoul. The results suggest that policy makers should take into account socioeconomic environmental characteristics of community in developing community-based health promotion rather than focusing on lifestyle changes of residents.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제28권3호
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• pp.233-250
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• 2021

This paper studies if the accuracies of mortality models (LC model vs. 4-parametric model) are aggravated if a mortality structure changes due to the impact of COVID-19. LC model (LCM) uses dimension reduction for fitting to the log mortality matrix so that the performance of the dimension reduction method may not be good when the matrix structure changes. On the other hand, 4-parametric factor model (4-PFM) is designed to use factors for fitting to log mortality data by age groups so that it would be less affected by the change of the mortality structure. In fact, the forecast accuracies of LCM are better than those of 4-PFM when life-tables are used whereas those of 4-PFM are better when the mortality structure changes. Thus this result shows that 4-PFM is more reliable in performance to the structural changes of the mortality. To support the accuracy changes of LCM the functional aspect is explained by computing eigenvalues produced by singular vector decomposition