• 한국콘크리트학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국콘크리트학회 2009년도 춘계 학술대회 제21권1호
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• pp.301-302
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• 2009

콘크리트 구조물의 성능 저하 현상 증의 하나인 탄산화에 의한 내구성능 저하를 평가하는 방법으로 각 설계변수의 불확실성윤 고려하기 위하여 MCS(Monte Carlo Simulation) 기법을 적용하여 탄산화의 영향을 받는 철근콘크리트 구조물의 내구성 해석을 수행하고 그 결과를 분석하였다. 일반적인 경우 50년 경과시 부식확률 10%에 이르는 필요피복두께는 탄산화 속도계수가 4mm/$year^{0.5}$일 경우 최소 53mm가 요구되는 것으로 나타났다. 추후 설계변수의 통계적인 성질에 대한 추가적인 연구를 통하여 탄산화 과정의 불확실성윤 합리적으로 고려함 수 있는 내구성 해석방법을 정립할 수 있을 것이다.

• 한국전기전자재료학회논문지
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• 제14권2호
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• pp.169-174
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• 2001

The electron transport coefficients(the electron drift velocity, W, and the longitudinal and transverse diffusion coefficient, D$_{L}$ and D$_{T}$) in SiH$_4$-Ar mixtures containing 0.5% and 5.0% monosilane were calculated over the E/N range from 0.01 to 300 Td and over the gas pressure range 0.5, 1.0 and 1.5 Torr by the time-of-flight(TOF) method of the Boltzmann equation(BE.) and Monte-Carlo simulation(MCS). The electron energy distribution function in each SiH$_4$-Ar mixtures at E/N=10 Td and L=0.2 cm, which in equilibrium region in the mean electron enregy were compared.red.

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국방재학회 2008년도 정기총회 및 학술발표대회
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• pp.683-686
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• 2008

Flood damage has been increased due to the abnormal climate and extreme rainfall. So, quantitative and qualitative hydrologic data should be improved in oder to enhance accuracy of hydrologic forecast. However, research regarding hydrologic data have not been thorough enough. Therefore, in this study, monte carlo simulation was applied to rainfall runoff model to improve the reliability of runoff analysis and risk analysis. Rainfall-Stage-Discharge curve was developed as a consequence of MCS and it is possible to get correct rating curve for high water level.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제12권5호
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• pp.569-581
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• 2017

The Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) based seismic fragility analysis (SFA) approach allows defining more realistic relationship between failure probability and seismic intensity. However, the approach requires simulating large number of nonlinear dynamic analyses of structure for reliable estimate of fragility. It makes the approach computationally challenging. The response surface method (RSM) based metamodeling approach which replaces computationally involve complex mechanical model of a structure is found to be a viable alternative in this regard. An adaptive moving least squares method (MLSM) based RSM in the MCS framework is explored in the present study for efficient SFA of existing structures. In doing so, the repetition of seismic intensity for complete generation of fragility curve is avoided by including this as one of the predictors in the response estimate model. The proposed procedure is elucidated by considering a non-linear SDOF system and an existing reinforced concrete frame considered to be located in the Guwahati City of the Northeast region of India. The fragility results are obtained by the usual least squares based and the proposed MLSM based RSM and compared with that of obtained by the direct MCS technique to study the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

• 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
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• 제55권1호
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• pp.45-51
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• 2006

This paper proposes a method to evaluate the Total Transfer Capability (TTC) by considering uncertainty of weather conditions. TTC is limited not only by the violation of system thermal and voltage limits, but also restricted by transient stability limit. Impact of the contingency on the power system performance could not be addressed in a deterministic way because of the random nature of the system equipment outage and the increase of outage probability according to the weather conditions. For these reasons, probabilistic approach is necessary to realize evaluation of the TTC. This method uses a sequential Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). In sequential simulation, the chronological behavior of the system is simulated by sampling sequence of the system operating states based on the probability distribution of the component state duration. Therefore, MCS is used to accomplish the probabilistic calculation of the TTC with consideration of the weather conditions.

• 한국지형학회지
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• 제26권4호
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• pp.21-31
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• 2019

Timing of terrace formation is a key information for understanding the evolution of fluvial systems. In particular, dating strath terrace (i.e. timing of terrace abandonment) is more difficult than depositional terrace that is conventionally constrained by radiocarbon, OSL and other dating methods targeting samples within terrace deposit. Surface exposure dating utilizing cosmogenic ¹⁰Be provides more reliability because it can be applied directly to the surface of a fluvial terrace. Thus, this method has been increasingly used for alluvial deposits. As well as other geomorphic surfaces over the last decades. Some inherent conditions, however, such as post-depositional ¹⁰Be concentration (i.e. inheritance), surface erosion rate, and density change challenge the application of cosmogenic ¹⁰Be to depositional terrace surface against simple bedrock surface. Here we present the first application of ¹⁰Be depth profile dating to a thin-gravel covered strath terrace in Korea. Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) helped us in better constraining the timing of abandonment of the strath terrace, since which its surface stochastically denuded with time, causing unexpected change of ¹⁰Be production with depth. The age of the strath terrace estimated by MCS was 109 ka, ~4% older than the one (104 ka) calculated by simple depth profile dating, which yielded the best-fit surface erosion rate of 2.1 mm/ka. Our study demonstrates that the application of ¹⁰Be depth profile dating of strath terrace using MCS is more robust and reliable because it considers post-depositional change of initial conditions such as erosion rate.

• 한국조명전기설비학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국조명전기설비학회 2004년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.281-284
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• 2004

Mean energy of electrons in $SF_6-Ar$ Mixtures Gas used by MCS-BEq algorithm has been analysed over the E/N range $30{\sim}300[Td]$ by a two term Boltzmann equation and by a Monte Carlo Simulation using a set of electron cross sections determined by other authors, experimentally the electron swarm parameters for 0.2[%] and 0.5[%] $SF_6-Ar$, 0.1[%] and 5.0[%], $SF_6-Ar$ mixtures were measured by time-of-flight(TOF) method. The transport Coefficients for electrons in (100[%])$SF_6$. (100[%])Ar, (0.2[%])$SF_6-Ar$ and (0.5[%]) $SF_6-Ar$, (5.0[%]) $SF_6-Ar$, (0.1[%])$SF_6-Ar$ mixtures were measured by time-of-flight method, and the electron energy distribution function and the parameters of the velocity and the diffusion were determined by the variation of the collision cross-sections with energy. The results obtained from Boltzmann equation method and Monte Carlo simulation have been compared with present and previously obtained data and respective set of electron collision cross sections of the molecules.

• 한국조명전기설비학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국조명전기설비학회 2006년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.298-301
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• 2006

This paper describes the electron energy distribution function characteristics in $SF_6-Ar$ gas calculated for range of E/N values from $50\sim700[Td]$ by the Monte Carlo simulation(MCS) and Boltzmann equation(BE) method using a set of electron collision cross sections determined by the authors and the values of electron swarm parameters are obtained by time of flight(TOF) method. In this dissertation the results of the combined experimental and theoretical studies designed to understand and predict the spatial growth and transport coefficients for electrons in $SF_6$ and $SF_6-Ar$ mixtures have described. The ionization and attachment coefficients in pure $SF_6$ and $SF_6-Ar$ mixtures have been calculated over the range of 10$SF_6$ molecule and for Ar atom proposed by other authors. The results obtained in this work will provide valuable information on the fundamental behaviors of electrons in weakly ionized gases and the role of electron attachment in the choice of better gases and unitary gas dielectrics or electro negative components in dielectric gas mixtures.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제33권1호
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• pp.15-30
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• 2000

본 연구는 소규모 저수지의 위험도와 초기저수지 수위와의 관계를 설정하기 위하여 신뢰도 분석기법을 적용하였다. 저수지의 안전성을 평가하기 위해서는 변수들의 불확실성을 파악하여야 하며 기능 수행함수를 설정하여야 한다. 저수지의 위험도를 산정하는 절차는 우선 월류에 대한 기능수행함수의 위험도 기준을 설정한 후 변수들의 불확실성을 파악하고 적정한 신뢰도 분석기법에 의하여 위험도를 산정하게 된다. 적용된 신뢰도 분석기법은 MCS(Monte Carly simulation) 법과 MVFOSM (mean value first order second momet) 법이며 이를 이용하여 저수지의 위험도를 산정하였다. 이에 따라 설계 재현기간에 따른 위험도-초기 저수지 수위의 관계를 설정하였으며 이는 저수지의 운용에 유용하게 사용될 것으로 생각된다.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제71권4호
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• pp.329-339
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• 2019

Assessment of failure probability, especially for a complex structure, requires a considerable number of calls to the numerical model. Reliability methods have been developed to decrease the computational time. In this approach, the original numerical model is replaced by a surrogate model which is usually explicit and much faster to evaluate. The current paper proposed an efficient reliability method based on Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and multi-gene genetic programming (MGGP) as a robust variant of genetic programming (GP). GP has been applied in different fields; however, its application to structural reliability has not been tested. The current study investigated the performance of MGGP as a surrogate model in structural reliability problems and compares it with other surrogate models. An adaptive Metropolis algorithm is utilized to obtain the training data with which to build the MGGP model. The failure probability is estimated by combining MCS and MGGP. The efficiency and accuracy of the proposed method were investigated with the help of five numerical examples.