• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.1-20
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• 2009

The present contribution addresses uncertainty quantification and uncertainty propagation in structural mechanics using stochastic analysis. Presently available procedures to describe uncertainties in load and resistance within a suitable mathematical framework are shortly addressed. Monte Carlo methods are proposed for studying the variability in the structural properties and for their propagation to the response. The general applicability and versatility of Monte Carlo Simulation is demonstrated in the context with computational models that have been developed for deterministic structural analysis. After discussing Direct Monte Carlo Simulation for the assessment of the response variability, some recently developed advanced Monte Carlo methods applied for reliability assessment are described, such as Importance Sampling for linear uncertain structures subjected to Gaussian loading, Line Sampling in linear dynamics and Subset simulation. The numerical example demonstrates the applicability of Line Sampling to general linear uncertain FE systems under Gaussian distributed excitation.

• Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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• v.34 no.5
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• pp.316-324
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• 2020

This paper presents comparative studies of reliability analysis and meta-modeling using the sampling method of Monte Carlo simulation for the structure design of an automatic ocean salt collector (AOSC). The thickness sizing variables of structure members are considered as random variables. Probabilistic performance functions are selected from strength performances evaluated via the finite element analysis of an AOSC. The sampling methods used in the comparative studies are simple random sampling and Sobol sequences with varied numbers of sampling. Approximation methods such as the Kriging model is applied to the meta-model generation. Reliability performances such as the probability failure and distribution are compared based on the variation of the sampling method of Monte Carlo simulation. The meta-modeling accuracy is evaluated for the Kriging model generated from the Monte Carlo simulation and Sobol sequence results. It is discovered that the Sobol sequence method is applicable to not only to the reliability analysis for the structural design of marine equipment such as the AOSC, but also to Kriging meta-modeling owing to its high numerical efficiency.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.135-150
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• 1999

Latin hypercube sampling(LHS) introduced by McKay et al. (1979) is a widely used method for Monte Carlo integration. Stratified Latin hypercube sampling(SLHS) proposed by Choi and Lee(1993) improves LHS by combining it with stratified sampling. In this article it is shown that SLHS yields an asymptotically more accurate than both stratified sampling and LHS.

• Proceedings of the Korean Statistical Society Conference
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• 2000.11a
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• pp.135-140
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• 2000

베이지안 신경망 모형(Bayesian Neural Networks Models)에서 주어진 입력값(input)은 블랙 박스(Black-Box)와 같은 신경망 구조의 각 층(layer)을 거쳐서 출력값(output)으로 계산된다. 새로운 입력 데이터에 대한 예측값은 사후분포(posterior distribution)의 기대값(mean)에 의해 계산된다. 주어진 사전분포(prior distribution)와 학습데이터에 의한 가능도함수(likelihood functions)를 통해 계산되어진 사후분포는 매우 복잡한 구조를 갖게 됨으로서 기대값의 적분계산에 대한 어려움이 발생한다. 이때 확률적 추정에 의한 근사 방법인 몬테칼로 적분을 이용한다. 이러한 방법으로서 Hybrid Monte Carlo 알고리즘은 우수한 결과를 제공하여준다(Neal 1996). 본 논문에서는 Hybrid Monte Carlo 알고리즘과 기존에 많이 사용되고 있는 Gibbs sampling, Metropolis algorithm, 그리고 Slice Sampling등의 몬테칼로 방법들을 비교한다.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• v.11 no.8
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• pp.3889-3903
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• 2017

Fast and accurate localization of randomly deployed nodes is required by many applications in wireless sensor networks (WSNs). However, mobile nodes localization in WSNs is more difficult than static nodes localization since the nodes mobility brings more data. In this paper, we propose a Range-based Monte Carlo Box (RMCB) algorithm, which builds upon the Monte Carlo Localization Boxed (MCB) algorithm to improve the localization accuracy. This algorithm utilizes Received Signal Strength Indication (RSSI) ranging technique to build a sample box and adds a preset error coefficient in sampling and filtering phase to increase the success rate of sampling and accuracy of valid samples. Moreover, simplified Particle Swarm Optimization (sPSO) algorithm is introduced to generate new samples and avoid constantly repeated sampling and filtering process. Simulation results denote that our proposed RMCB algorithm can reduce the location error by 24%, 14% and 14% on average compared to MCB, Range-based Monte Carlo Localization (RMCL) and RSSI Motion Prediction MCB (RMMCB) algorithm respectively and are suitable for high precision required positioning scenes.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.49 no.6
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• pp.1172-1180
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• 2017

The application of Monte Carlo (MC) to large-scale fixed-source problems has recently become possible with new hybrid methods that automate generation of parameters for variance reduction techniques. Two common variance reduction techniques, weight windows and source biasing, have been automated and popularized by the consistent adjoint-driven importance sampling (CADIS) method. This method uses the adjoint solution from an inexpensive deterministic calculation to define a consistent set of weight windows and source particles for a subsequent MC calculation. One of the motivations for source consistency is to avoid the splitting or rouletting of particles at birth, which requires computational resources. However, it is not always possible or desirable to implement such consistency, which results in inconsistent source biasing. This paper develops an original framework that mathematically expresses the coupling of the weight window and source biasing techniques, allowing the authors to explore the impact of inconsistent source sampling on the variance of MC results. A numerical experiment supports this new framework and suggests that certain classes of problems may be relatively insensitive to inconsistent source sampling schemes with moderate levels of splitting and rouletting.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.65-85
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• 2024

The tail probability of a function of a multivariate random variable is not easy to estimate by the crude Monte Carlo simulation. When the occurrence of the function value over a threshold is rare, the accurate estimation of the corresponding probability requires a huge number of samples. When the explicit form of the cumulative distribution function of each component of the variable is known, the inverse transform likelihood ratio method is directly applicable scheme to estimate the tail probability efficiently. The method is a type of the importance sampling and its efficiency depends on the selection of the importance sampling distribution. When the cumulative distribution of the multivariate random variable is represented by a copula and its marginal distributions, we develop an iterative algorithm to find the optimal importance sampling distribution, and show the convergence of the algorithm. The performance of the proposed scheme is compared with the crude Monte Carlo simulation numerically.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.55 no.11
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• pp.4228-4237
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• 2023

The Improved Deterministic Truncation of Monte Carlo (iDTMC) is a powerful acceleration and variance reduction scheme in the Monte Carlo analysis. The concept of the iDTMC method and correlated sampling-based real variance estimation are briefly introduced. Moreover, the application of the iterative scheme to the correlated sampling is discussed. The iDTMC method is utilized in a 3-dimensional small modular reactor (SMR) model problem. The real variances of burnup-dependent criticality and power distribution are evaluated and compared with the ones obtained from 30 independent iDTMC calculations. The impact of the inactive cycles on the correlated sampling is also evaluated to investigate the consistency of the correlated sample scheme. In addition, numerical performances and sensitivity analysis on the real variance estimation are performed in view of the figure of merit of the iDTMC method. The numerical results show that the correlated sampling accurately estimates the real variances with high computational efficiencies.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• v.35 no.2
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• pp.157-166
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• 2006

This research proposes an efficient Monte Carlo algorithm for computing error probability in high performance digital communication st stems. It characterizes special features of the problem and suggests an importance sampling algorithm specially designed to handle the problem. It uses a shifted exponential density as the importance sampling density, and shows an adaptive way of choosing the rate and the origin of the shifted exponential density. Instead of equal allocation, an intelligent allocation of the samples is proposed so that more samples are allocated to more important part of the error probability. The algorithm uses the nested feature of the error space and avoids redundancy in estimating the probability. The algorithm is applied to an example data set and shows a great improvement in accuracy of the error probability estimation.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.49 no.6
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• pp.1199-1210
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• 2017

A new in-line method for sampling neutrons emitted in (${\alpha}$,n) reactions based on alpha particle source information has been developed for continuous-energy Monte Carlo simulations. The new method uses a continuous-slowing-down model coupled with (${\alpha}$,n) cross section data to precompute the expected neutron yield over the alpha particle lifetime. This eliminates the complexity and computational cost associated with explicit charged particle transport. When combined with an integrated alpha particle decay source sampling capability, the proposed method provides an efficient and accurate method for sampling (${\alpha}$,n) neutrons based solely on nuclide inventories in the problem, with no additional user input required. Results from several example calculations show that the proposed method reproduces the (${\alpha}$,n) neutron yields and energy spectra from reference experiments and calculations.