• Title/Summary/Keyword: Models, statistical

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A Study of Anomaly Detection for ICT Infrastructure using Conditional Multimodal Autoencoder (ICT 인프라 이상탐지를 위한 조건부 멀티모달 오토인코더에 관한 연구)

  • Shin, Byungjin;Lee, Jonghoon;Han, Sangjin;Park, Choong-Shik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.57-73
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    • 2021
  • Maintenance and prevention of failure through anomaly detection of ICT infrastructure is becoming important. System monitoring data is multidimensional time series data. When we deal with multidimensional time series data, we have difficulty in considering both characteristics of multidimensional data and characteristics of time series data. When dealing with multidimensional data, correlation between variables should be considered. Existing methods such as probability and linear base, distance base, etc. are degraded due to limitations called the curse of dimensions. In addition, time series data is preprocessed by applying sliding window technique and time series decomposition for self-correlation analysis. These techniques are the cause of increasing the dimension of data, so it is necessary to supplement them. The anomaly detection field is an old research field, and statistical methods and regression analysis were used in the early days. Currently, there are active studies to apply machine learning and artificial neural network technology to this field. Statistically based methods are difficult to apply when data is non-homogeneous, and do not detect local outliers well. The regression analysis method compares the predictive value and the actual value after learning the regression formula based on the parametric statistics and it detects abnormality. Anomaly detection using regression analysis has the disadvantage that the performance is lowered when the model is not solid and the noise or outliers of the data are included. There is a restriction that learning data with noise or outliers should be used. The autoencoder using artificial neural networks is learned to output as similar as possible to input data. It has many advantages compared to existing probability and linear model, cluster analysis, and map learning. It can be applied to data that does not satisfy probability distribution or linear assumption. In addition, it is possible to learn non-mapping without label data for teaching. However, there is a limitation of local outlier identification of multidimensional data in anomaly detection, and there is a problem that the dimension of data is greatly increased due to the characteristics of time series data. In this study, we propose a CMAE (Conditional Multimodal Autoencoder) that enhances the performance of anomaly detection by considering local outliers and time series characteristics. First, we applied Multimodal Autoencoder (MAE) to improve the limitations of local outlier identification of multidimensional data. Multimodals are commonly used to learn different types of inputs, such as voice and image. The different modal shares the bottleneck effect of Autoencoder and it learns correlation. In addition, CAE (Conditional Autoencoder) was used to learn the characteristics of time series data effectively without increasing the dimension of data. In general, conditional input mainly uses category variables, but in this study, time was used as a condition to learn periodicity. The CMAE model proposed in this paper was verified by comparing with the Unimodal Autoencoder (UAE) and Multi-modal Autoencoder (MAE). The restoration performance of Autoencoder for 41 variables was confirmed in the proposed model and the comparison model. The restoration performance is different by variables, and the restoration is normally well operated because the loss value is small for Memory, Disk, and Network modals in all three Autoencoder models. The process modal did not show a significant difference in all three models, and the CPU modal showed excellent performance in CMAE. ROC curve was prepared for the evaluation of anomaly detection performance in the proposed model and the comparison model, and AUC, accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score were compared. In all indicators, the performance was shown in the order of CMAE, MAE, and AE. Especially, the reproduction rate was 0.9828 for CMAE, which can be confirmed to detect almost most of the abnormalities. The accuracy of the model was also improved and 87.12%, and the F1-score was 0.8883, which is considered to be suitable for anomaly detection. In practical aspect, the proposed model has an additional advantage in addition to performance improvement. The use of techniques such as time series decomposition and sliding windows has the disadvantage of managing unnecessary procedures; and their dimensional increase can cause a decrease in the computational speed in inference.The proposed model has characteristics that are easy to apply to practical tasks such as inference speed and model management.

A Study on the Buyer's Decision Making Models for Introducing Intelligent Online Handmade Services (지능형 온라인 핸드메이드 서비스 도입을 위한 구매자 의사결정모형에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Jong-Won;Yang, Sung-Byung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.119-138
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    • 2016
  • Since the Industrial Revolution, which made the mass production and mass distribution of standardized goods possible, machine-made (manufactured) products have accounted for the majority of the market. However, in recent years, the phenomenon of purchasing even more expensive handmade products has become a noticeable trend as consumers have started to acknowledge the value of handmade products, such as the craftsman's commitment, belief in their quality and scarcity, and the sense of self-esteem from having them,. Consumer interest in these handmade products has shown explosive growth and has been coupled with the recent development of three-dimensional (3D) printing technologies. Etsy.com is the world's largest online handmade platform. It is no different from any other online platform; it provides an online market where buyers and sellers virtually meet to share information and transact business. However, Etsy.com is different in that shops within this platform only deal with handmade products in a variety of categories, ranging from jewelry to toys. Since its establishment in 2005, despite being limited to handmade products, Etsy.com has enjoyed rapid growth in membership, transaction volume, and revenue. Most recently in April 2015, it raised funds through an initial public offering (IPO) of more than 1.8 billion USD, which demonstrates the huge potential of online handmade platforms. After the success of Etsy.com, various types of online handmade platforms such as Handmade at Amazon, ArtFire, DaWanda, and Craft is ART have emerged and are now competing with each other, at the same time, which has increased the size of the market. According to Deloitte's 2015 holiday survey on which types of gifts the respondents plan to buy during the holiday season, about 16% of U.S. consumers chose "homemade or craft items (e.g., Etsy purchase)," which was the same rate as those for the computer game and shoes categories. This indicates that consumer interests in online handmade platforms will continue to rise in the future. However, this high interest in the market for handmade products and their platforms has not yet led to academic research. Most extant studies have only focused on machine-made products and intelligent services for them. This indicates a lack of studies on handmade products and their intelligent services on virtual platforms. Therefore, this study used signaling theory and prior research on the effects of sellers' characteristics on their performance (e.g., total sales and price premiums) in the buyer-seller relationship to identify the key influencing e-Image factors (e.g., reputation, size, information sharing, and length of relationship). Then, their impacts on the performance of shops within the online handmade platform were empirically examined; the dataset was collected from Etsy.com through the application of web harvesting technology. The results from the structural equation modeling revealed that the reputation, size, and information sharing have significant effects on the total sales, while the reputation and length of relationship influence price premiums. This study extended the online platform research into online handmade platform research by identifying key influencing e-Image factors on within-platform shop's total sales and price premiums based on signaling theory and then performed a statistical investigation. These findings are expected to be a stepping stone for future studies on intelligent online handmade services as well as handmade products themselves. Furthermore, the findings of the study provide online handmade platform operators with practical guidelines on how to implement intelligent online handmade services. They should also help shop managers build their marketing strategies in a more specific and effective manner by suggesting key influencing e-Image factors. The results of this study should contribute to the vitalization of intelligent online handmade services by providing clues on how to maximize within-platform shops' total sales and price premiums.

A Study on the Determinants of Consumer-Oriented Nursing Service Quality;SERVQUAL Model based (소비자 중심의 간호서비스 질 결정요인에 관한 연구;SERVQUAL모형을 중심으로)

  • Joo, Mee-Kyoung
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing Administration
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.169-191
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    • 2002
  • As the tendency of the society is centralized into consumers and services, patients are getting to ask better medical services. The consumers influenced from various social surroundings became to have some expectation of nursing service. Compared with their expectation, the quality of the services which they virtually get may be recognized and evaluated. So it is necessary to know exactly what the consumers want in nursing services. The purpose of this study is to examine the determinants which can evaluate the quality of nursing services by researching into consumers' expectation and perception of the nursing services depending on the consumer-oriented attributions on the basis of the model of SERVQUAL. 1,144 of outpatients were selected as the subjects for this research. They used to continuously visit the same hospital after being hospitalized and nursed in 9 hospitals randomly selected among the second-level medical organizations in Seoul from January to February, 2001. The collected data are analyzed into the Descriptive Statistics, t-test, GLM and Multiple Regression through the SAS program. Delphi was used for the research tool and the results of the research are as follows; the determinants in evaluating the quality of nursing services consist of 5 categories such as Tangibility, Reliability, Responsiveness, Assurance, Empathy. The values of Cronbach' $\alpha$ appeared to be 0.96 in the expectation of nursing services, 0.94 in the perception of nursing services and 0.96 in the importance of nursing services. The determinants in the expectation of nursing services were ranged in the order of Assurance, Empathy, Reliability, Responsiveness and Tangibility. And those in the perception of nursing services were in the order of Assurance, Empathy, Reliability, Tangibility and Responsiveness. Those in the importance of nursing service were in the order of Empathy, Assurance, Reliability, Tangibility and Responsiveness. Finally, those in the quality of nursing service were in the order of Tangibility, Responsiveness, Empathy, Reliability and Assurance. Each expectation of nursing services appeared different depending on the subjects' age, gender, clinical department and reason for hospitalization. The hypothesis examined in this research shows that the group having higher personal needs shows meaningful differences in the expectation of nursing services, and the subjects who have had external communication show higher perception of nursing service than uncommunicative ones. After all, we can see that the statistical differences in the perception of nursing services depend on whether the subjects have external communications or not. The determinants in the expectation of nursing services can explain the quality of nursing service up to 14.96%. The statistically meaningful determinants in the expectation could be arranged in the order of Reliability, Assurance and Tangibility. And the more expectation brings about the lower evaluation of the quality of nursing services. The determinants in the perception of nursing service can explain the quality of nursing services up to 29.85%. The statistically meaningful determinants in the perception could be arranged in the order of Responsiveness, Reliability, Tangibility, Empathy, and Assurance. And the more perception brings about the higher evaluation of the quality of nursing services. According to the result of the above research, I would like to propose as follows. As long as this research is oriented to get knowledge of the consumer-oriented nursing services, it should be continued to draw the other elements determining the quality of the nursing services. Furthermore, this research is based upon the Parasuraman, A., et al.'s SERVQUAL Model(1991), which deals only expectation, perception and quality of consumer-oriented nursing services, so it will be necessary to inspect and verify it through the other models containing the offerers of nursing services in the future. On the other hand, as this research evaluates the actual quality of nursing services based on the expectation and perception of nursing services, it can be utilized as fundamental data to develop the marketing strategies and to estimate the qualities as well. I hope this research will be periodically estimated to be the useful data to develop the marketing strategies in the nursing service area.

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Climate Change Impact on Korean Forest and Forest Management Strategies (기후변화가 한국 산림에 미치는 영향과 관리 전략)

  • Kim, Moonil;Yoo, Somin;Kim, Nahui;Lee, Wona;Ham, Boyoung;Song, Cholho;Lee, Woo-Kyun
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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    • v.35 no.3
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    • pp.413-425
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    • 2017
  • This manuscript describes the relationship between climate change and forest growth, forest species, carbon stocks, and tree mortality. 1) In the aspect of forest growth, the growth of major coniferous species, including Pinus densiflora, had a negative correlation with temperature. On the other hand, major deciduous oak species, including Quercus variabilis and Quercus mongolica, had a positive correlation with temperature. 2) When considered in the aspect of the forest species distribution, various models commonly showed a decrease in the distribution of coniferous species and an increase in oak species due to climate change in the medium to long term. 3) From the carbon stock perspective, there was a difference in the estimation according to the status of forest management. Most of Korean forests will mature to become over-matured forest after year 2030 and are estimated to produce approximately 410 million ton forest biomass until 2090 with the current cutting regulations for sustainable forest management announced by the Korean Forest Service. 4) In the forest mortality, the mortality rate of the major coniferous species showed a clear tendency to increase higher temperatures while it decreased for the oak species with no verification of statistical significance. Moreover, the mortality of the subalpine coniferous species was projected to progress rapidly. considering the overall impacts described above, there should be a management strategy for coniferous species that are relatively vulnerable to climate change. Moreover, a sustainable forest plan in the aspect of ecosystem services, carbon sequestration and storage, which is linked to global issues such as Sustainable Development Goals, ecosystem services and negative emission.

Association between Sleep Duration, Dental Caries, and Periodontitis in Korean Adults: The Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2013~2014 (한국 성인에서 수면시간과 영구치 우식증 및 치주질환과의 관련성: 2013~2014 국민건강영양조사)

  • Lee, Da-Hyun;Lee, Young-Hoon
    • Journal of dental hygiene science
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.38-45
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    • 2017
  • We evaluated the association between sleep duration, dental caries, and periodontitis by using representative nationwide data. We examined 8,356 subjects aged ${\geq}19$ years who participated in the sixth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2013~2014). Sleep duration were grouped into ${\leq}5$, 6, 7, 8, and ${\geq}9$ hours. Presence of dental caries was defined as caries in ${\geq}1$ permanent tooth on dental examination. Periodontal status was assessed by using the community periodontal index (CPI), and a CPI code of ${\geq}3$ was defined as periodontitis. A chi-square test and multiple logistic regression analysis were used to determine statistical significance. Model 1 was adjusted for age and sex, model 2 for household income, educational level, and marital status plus model 1, and model 3 for smoking status, alcohol consumption, blood pressure level, fasting blood glucose level, total cholesterol level, and body mass index plus model 2. The prevalence of dental caries according to sleep duration showed a U-shaped curve of 33.4%, 29.4%, 28.4%, 29.4%, and 31.8% with ${\leq}5$, 6, 7, 8, and ${\geq}9$ hours of sleep, respectively. In the fully adjusted model 3, the risk of developing dental caries was significantly higher with ${\leq}5$ than with 7 hours of sleep (odds ratio, 1.23; 95% confidence interval, 1.06~1.43). The prevalence of periodontitis according to sleep duration showed a U-shaped curve of 34.4%, 28.6%, 28.1%, 31.3%, and 32.5%, respectively. The risk of periodontitis was significantly higher with ${\geq}9$ than with 7 hours of sleep in models 1 and 2, whereas the significant association disappeared in model 3. In a nationally representative sample, sleep duration was significantly associated with dental caries formation and weakly associated with periodontitis. Adequate sleep is required to prevent oral diseases such as dental caries and periodontitis.

Analysis of alveolar molding effects in infants with bilateral cleft lip and palate when treated with pre-surgical naso-alveolar molding appliance (양측성 순구개열 신생아 환자의 수술전 비치조 정형장치 치료에 의한 치조골 조형(molding) 효과의 분석)

  • Nahm, Dong-Seok;Yang, Won-Sik;Baek, Seung-Hak;Kim, Sukwha
    • The korean journal of orthodontics
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    • v.29 no.6 s.77
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    • pp.649-661
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    • 1999
  • The goals of this study were 1) to present pre-surgical naso-alveolar molding (PNAM) appliance for bilateral cleft lip and palate treatment and 2) to evaluate the effects of the PNAM appliance on the alveolar molding of the premaxilla and the lateral segments. Subjects consisted of 8 bilateral cleft lip and palate infants (7 males and 1 female, mean age at first visit = 61.6 days after birth) who were treated with PNAM appliances in Department of Orthodontics, Seoul National University Dental Hospital. Average alveolar cleft gap between the premaxilla and the lateral segment was $8.09{\pm}5.03mm$ and average duration of alveolar molding treatment was $8.8{\pm}3.1$ weeks. These patients' models were obtained at initial visit (T0) and after alveolar molding (T1). 20 linear and 14 angular variables were measured by using photometry and digital caliper, All statistical analyses were performed by Microsoft Excel 97 program. Paired t-test was used to discriminate the effect of alveolar molding by PNAM appliance. 1. Closure of the alveolar cleft gap in bilateral cleft cases by molding therapy was completed successfully, 2. Alveolar molding inhibited outward growth of lateral segments and produced inward bending of lateral segments. 3. By bending the anterior part of the vomer, the premaxilla could be rotated and moved. posteriorly via alveolar molding. Conclusion This appliance can be applied to bilateral cleft lip and palate infants with satisfactory results before cheiloplasty.

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Prevention of calcification in bovine pericardial bioprosthesis -pretreatment with surfactants- (우심낭편의 석회화 방지에 관한 연구 - 계면활성제 전처치 효과 -)

  • 안재호;한재진;박성수
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.31 no.6
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    • pp.560-566
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    • 1998
  • Background: Bovine pericardial bioprosthesis treated with glutaraldehyde (GA) is one of the most popular prosthetic materials, but late calcific degeneration after implantation is a problem that remains unsolved. For the purpose of mitigating the calcific degeneration, we added MgCl2 into the 0.625% GA solution to compete with calcium for binding to the free aldehyde from GA and pretreated with the surfactants like sodium dodecyl sulfate (SDS) and Triton X-100 before GA fixation for preventing the phospholipid infiltration into the pericardial tissue, the first step of the calcific degeneration. Material and Method: 40 square-shaped pieces of bovine pericardia were fixed in 0.625% GA solution with 4g/L MgCl2 6H2O as a control group (group 1). 40 pieces pretreated with 1% SDS were also fixed in the same GA solution (group 2) and other 40 pieces pretreated with 1% Triton X-100 were prepared with the same method (group 3). After 1 month of fixation these were implanted into the belly of 40 Sprague-Dawley subdermally and extracted 1 month, 2 months, 3 months and 6 months after implantation. With atomic absorption spectrophotometry we measured the deposited calcium amount. Result: 1 month after implantation we could not find any differences between the three groups, but by the 2nd month calcium deposition was 0.921$\pm$0.121 mg/g in group 1, 0.481$\pm$0.037 mg/g in group 2 and 1.369$\pm$0.200 mg/g in group 3. By the 3rd month it was 0.786$\pm$0.080 mg/g in group 1, 0.584$\pm$0.054 mg/g in group 2 and 1.139$\pm$0.188 mg/g in group 3, and on the 6th month 1.623$\pm$0.601 mg/g in group 1,0.501$\pm$0.043 mg/g in group 2 and 1.625$\pm$0.382 mg/g in group 3, with statistical significance in group 2(p<0.05). Conclusion: Pretreatment with SDS showed meaningful calcium mitigation effects on subcutaneously implanted bovine pericardium in the rat models but the neutral type surfactant, Triton X-100, had no positive mitigation effect in this experiment.

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Development of a Predictive Model Describing the Growth of Listeria Monocytogenes in Fresh Cut Vegetable (샐러드용 신선 채소에서의 Listerio monocytogenes 성장예측모델 개발)

  • Cho, Joon-Il;Lee, Soon-Ho;Lim, Ji-Su;Kwak, Hyo-Sun;Hwang, In-Gyun
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.25-30
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    • 2011
  • In this study, predictive mathematical models were developed to predict the kinetics of Listeria monocytogenes growth in the mixed fresh-cut vegetables, which is the most popular ready-to-eat food in the world, as a function of temperature (4, 10, 20 and $30^{\circ}C$). At the specified storage temperatures, the primary growth curve fit well ($r^2$=0.916~0.981) with a Gompertz and Baranyi equation to determine the specific growth rate (SGR). The Polynomial model for natural logarithm transformation of the SGR as a function of temperature was obtained by nonlinear regression (Prism, version 4.0, GraphPad Software). As the storage temperature decreased from $30^{\circ}C$ to $4^{\circ}C$, the SGR decreased, respectively. Polynomial model was identified as appropriate secondary model for SGR on the basis of most statistical indices such as mean square error (MSE=0.002718 by Gompertz, 0.055186 by Baranyi), bias factor (Bf=1.050084 by Gompertz, 1.931472 by Baranyi) and accuracy factor (Af=1.160767 by Gompertz, 2.137181 by Baranyi). Results indicate L. monocytogenes growth was affected by temperature mainly, and equation was developed by Gompertz model (-0.1606+$0.0574^*Temp$+$0.0009^*Temp^*Temp$) was more effective than equation was developed by Baranyi model (0.3502-$0.0496^*Temp$+$0.0022^*Temp^*Temp$) for specific growth rate prediction of L.monocytogenes in the mixed fresh-cut vegetables.

Prediction of the risk of skin cancer caused by UVB radiation exposure using a method of meta-analysis (Meta-analysis를 이용한 UVB 조사량에 따른 피부암 발생 위해도의 예측 연구)

  • Shin, D.C.;Lee, J.T.;Yang, J.Y.
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.31 no.1 s.60
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    • pp.91-103
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    • 1998
  • Under experimental conditions, UVB radiation, a type of ultra violet radiation, has shown to .elate with the occurrence of skin erythema (sun-burn) in human and skin cancer in experimental animal. Cumulative exposure to UVB is also believed to be at least partly responsible for the 'aging' process of the skin in human. It has also been observed to have an effect of altering DNA (deoxyribonucleic acid). UVB radiation is both an initiator and a promoter of non-melanoma skin cancer. Meta-analysis is a new discipline that critically reviews and statistically combines the results of previous researches. A recent review of meta-analysis in the field of public health emphasized its growing importance. Using a meta-analysis in this study, we explored more reliable dose-response relationships between UVB radiation and skin cancer incidence. We estimated skin cancer incidence using measured UVB radiation dose at a local area of Seoul (Shin chou-dong). The studies showing the dose-response relationships between UVB radiation and non-melanoma skin cancer incidence were searched and selected for a meta-analysis. The data for 7 reported epidemiological studies of three counties (USA, England, Australia) were pooled to estimated the risk. We estimated rate of incidence change of skin cancer using pooled data by meta-analysis method, and exponential and power models. Using either model, the regression coefficients for UVB did not differ significantly by gender and age. In each analysis of variance, non-melanoma skin cancer incidence after removing the gender and age and UVB effects was significant (p>0.01). The coefficients for UVB dose were estimated $2.07\times10^{-6}$ by the exponential model and 2.49 by the power model. At a local area of Seoul (Shinchon-Dong), BAF value were estimated 1.90 and 2.51 by the exponential and power model, respectively. The estimated BAP value were increased statistical power than that of primary studies that using a meta-analysis method.

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Estimation of the Superelevation Safety Factor Considering Operating Speed at 3-Dimensional Alignment (입체선형의 주행속도를 고려한 편경사 안전율 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Tae-Hoon;Kim, Joong-Hyo;Park, Je-Jin;Park, Ju-Won;Ha, Tae-Jun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.23 no.7 s.85
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    • pp.159-163
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    • 2005
  • The propriety between suppliers and demanders in geometric design is very important. Although the final purpose of constructing roads is to concern about the driver s comfort, unfortunately, it has not been considered so far. We've considered the regularity and quickness in considering driver's comfort but there should be considered the safety for the accident as well. If drivers are appeared to be more speeding than designer's intention, there will be needed some supplements to increase the safety rate for the roads. Even if both an upward and downward section are supposed to exist at the same time for solid geometry of the roads like this, it is true that the recent design for the 3-D solid geometry section has been done as flat 2-D and the minimum plane curve radius and the maximum cant have been decided just by calculating without considering operating speed between an upward and downward section at the same point. In this investigation, thus, I'd like to calculate the safety of the cant by considering the speed features of the solid geometry for the first lane of four lane rural roads. To begin with, we investigated the driving speed of the car, which is not been influenced by a preceding car to analyze the influence of the geometrical structure by using Nc-97. Secondly, we statistically analyzed the driving features of the solid geometry after comparing the 6 sections, that is, measuring the driving speed feature at 12 points and combining the influence of the vertical geometry and plane geometry to the driving speed of the plane curve which was researched before. Finally, we estimated the value of cant which considers the driving speed not by using it which has applied uniformly without considering it properly, though there were some differences between a designed speed and driving speed through the result of the basic statistical analysis but by introducing the new safety rate rule, a notion of ${\alpha}$. As a result of the research, we could see the driving features of the car and suggest the safety rate which considers these. For considering the maximum cant, if we apply the safety rate, the result of this experiment, which considers 3-D solid geometry, there'll be the improvement of the driver's safety for designing roads. In addition, after collecting and analyzing the data for the road sections which have various geometrical structures by expanding this experiment it is considered that there should be developed the models which considers 3-D solid geometry.