• 대한기계학회논문집A
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• 제26권8호
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• pp.1487-1494
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• 2002

In this study, to propose the prediction method of the crack growth under flight-simulation loading, crack growth tests are conducted on 2124-7851 aluminum alloy specimens. The prediction of crack growth under flight-simulation loading is performed by the stochastic crack growth model which was developed in previous study. First of all, to reduce the complex load history into a number of constant amplitude events, rainflow counting is applied to the flight-simulation loading wave. The crack growth, then, is predicted by the stochastic crack growth model that can describe the load interaction effect as well as the variability in crack growth process. The material constants required in this model are obtained from crack growth tests under constant amplitude loading and single tensile overload. The curves predicted by the proposed model well describe the crack growth behavior under flight-simulation loading and agree with experimental data. In addition, this model well predicts the variability of fatigue lives.

• Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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• 제32권3호
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• pp.280-290
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• 2016

Stem diameter variability is an essential inventory result that provides useful information in forest management decisions. Little has been done to explore the modelling potentials of standard deviation (SDD) and coefficient of variation (CVD) of diameter at breast height (dbh). This study, therefore, was aimed at developing and testing models for predicting SDD and CVD in stands of Pinus caribaea Morelet (pine) in south west Nigeria. Sixty temporary sample plots of size $20m{\times}20m$, ranging between 15 and 37 years were sampled, covering the entire range of pine in south west Nigeria. The dbh (cm), total and merchantable heights (m), number of stems and age of trees were measured within each plot. Basal area ($m^2$), site index (m), relative spacing and percentile positions of dbh at $24^{th}$, $63^{rd}$, $76^{th}$ and $93^{rd}$ (i.e. $P_{24}$, $P_{63}$, $P_{76}$ and $P_{93}$) were computed from measured variables for each plot. Linear mixed model (LMM) was used to test the effects of locations (fixed) and plots (random). Six candidate models (3 for SDD and 3 for CVD), using three categories of explanatory variables (i.e. (i) only stand size measures, (ii) distribution measures, and (iii) combination of i and ii). The best model was chosen based on smaller relative standard error (RSE), prediction residual sum of squares (PRESS), corrected Akaike Information Criterion ($AIC_c$) and larger coefficient of determination ($R^2$). The results of the LMM indicated that location and plot effects were not significant. The CVD and SDD models having only measures of percentiles (i.e. $P_{24}$ and $P_{93}$) as predictors produced better predictions than others. However, CVD model produced the overall best predictions, because of the lower RSE and stability in measuring variability across different stand developments. The results demonstrate the potentials of CVD in modelling stem diameter variability in relationship with percentiles variables.

• 한국신뢰성학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국신뢰성학회 2001년도 정기학술대회
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• pp.321-334
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• 2001

EPC seeks to minimize variability by transferring the output variable to a related process input(controllable) variable, while SPC seeks to reduce variability by detecting and eliminating assignable causes of variation. In the case of product control, a very reasonable objective is to try to minimize the variance of the output deviations from the target or set point. We compare three control systems; EPC, combined system with EWMA and EPC, and SPC. This paper shows through simulation that the performance of the integrated model of EPC and SPC is more preferable than that of EPC.

• 한국지구과학회지
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• 제44권1호
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• pp.1-12
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• 2023

해양의 파랑은 지구온난화 및 기후변화의 중요한 지표 중 하나로 인식되고 있다. 기후변화와 동아시아 몬순의 영향을 직접적으로 받는 황해 및 동중국해역에서의 유의파고 및 파향의 시공간 변동성 연구가 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 유럽중기예보센터(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts; ECMWF)에서 제공하고 있는 5세대 모델 재분석장 (ECMWF Reanalysis 5, ERA5) 자료를 활용하여 황해 및 동중국해역에서의 유의파고와 파향의 공간분포와 계절 및 경년변동을 포함하는 시공간 변동성을 분석하였다. 모델 재분석자료를 활용한 유의파고와 파향의 변동성 분석에 앞서 이어도 해양과학기지 관측 자료와의 비교를 통하여 정확도를 검증하였다. 평균 유의파고는 0.3-1.6 m의 범위를 보였으며 북쪽에 비해 남쪽이 높고 연안에 비해 황해 중심부에서 높은 공간분포 특성을 보였다. 유의파고의 표준편차 또한 평균과 유사한 양상을 나타내었다. 황해에서 유의파고와 파향은 뚜렷한 계절변동성을 보였다. 유의파고의 경우 전반적으로 겨울철에 가장 높았으며 늦봄 또는 초여름에 가장 낮았다. 파향은 계절풍의 영향으로 겨울철에는 주로 남쪽으로 전파되었으며 여름철에는 북쪽으로 전파되는 특성이 나타났다. 유의파고의 계절변동은 여름철 태풍 등의 영향으로 해마다 연 진폭의 큰 변화를 가진 강한 경년변동성을 보였다.

• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제29권3호
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• pp.111-127
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• 2004

We consider a supply chain model with a make-to-order production facility and a single supplier. The model we treat here is a special case of a two-echelon inventory model. Unlike classical two-echelon systems, the demand process at the supplier is affected by production process at the production facility as well as customer order arrival process. In this paper, we address that how the demand variability impacts on the optimal replenishment policy. To this end, we incorporate Erlang and phase-type demand distributions into the model. Formulating the model as a Markov decision problem, we investigate the structure of the optimal replenishment policy. We also implement a sensitivity analysis on the optimal policy and establish its monotonicity with respect to system cost parameters.

• 대기
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• 제26권4호
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• pp.687-696
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• 2016

The western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) in boreal summer has interannual and interdecadal variability, which affects East Asian summer monsoon variability. In particular, it is well known that the intensity of WNPSH is reversely related to that of summer monsoon in North East Asia in association with Pacific Japan (PJ)-like pattern. Many coupled climate models weakly simulate this large-scale teleconnection pattern and also exhibit the diverse variability of WNPSH. This study discusses the inter-model differences of WNPSH simulated by different climate models, which participate in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). In comparing with reanalysis observation, the 29 CMIP5 models could be assorted into two difference groups in terms of interannual variability of WNPSH. This study also discusses the dynamical or thermodynamics factors for the differences of two groups of the CMIP5 climate models. As results, the regressed precipitation in well-simulating group onto the Nino3.4 index ($5^{\circ}N-5^{\circ}S$, $170^{\circ}W-120^{\circ}W$) is stronger than that in poorly-simulating group. We suggest that this difference of two groups of the CMIP5 climate models would have an effect on simulating the interannual variability of WNPSH.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• 제20권1호
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• pp.19-28
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• 2020

The spatial variability of geotechnical properties can lead to the uncertainty of settlement for frozen soil foundation around the oil pipeline, and it can affect the stability of permafrost foundation. In this paper, the elastic modulus, cohesion, angle of internal friction and poisson ratio are taken as four independent random fields. A stochastic analysis model for the uncertain settlement characteristic of frozen soil foundation around an oil pipeline is presented. The accuracy of the stochastic analysis model is verified by measured data. Considering the different combinations for the coefficient of variation and scale of fluctuation, the influences of spatial variability of geotechnical properties on uncertain settlement are estimated. The results show that the stochastic effects between elastic modulus, cohesion, angle of internal friction and poisson ratio are obviously different. The deformation parameters have a greater influence on stochastic settlement than the strength parameters. The overall variability of settlement reduces with the increase of horizontal scale of fluctuation and vertical scale of fluctuation. These results can improve our understanding of the influences of spatial variability of geotechnical properties on uncertain settlement and provide a theoretical basis for the reliability analysis of pipeline engineering in permafrost regions.

• 대한전기학회논문지:시스템및제어부문D
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• 제52권9호
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• pp.547-553
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• 2003

In this paper, we designed the PC-based analyzer of the power spectral density that could estimate the heart rate variability from time series data of R-R interval. The power spectral density estimated that it applied the autoregressive model to the measured electrocardiogram during a short period. Also, the characteristics of the designed analyzer are that it could process of the signal filtering, the generation and recomposition of time series and the feature extraction at the same time. Especially the analyzer reconstructed which applied the lowpass filter of the time series composed by the linear interpolation so as to enhance the signal-to-noise feature. We could estimate the power spectral density that confirmed a variety of power peak with low frequency range and high frequency rang of autonomic nerve by the heart rate variability.

• 한국해안해양공학회지
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• 제6권3호
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• pp.298-308
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• 1994

북서태평양의 해수순환을 원시방정식 수처모형을 이용하여 재현하여 알라스카 만에서 관측된 해수순환의 경년변화에 대한 설명을 시도하였다. 모형 결과에 의하면 알라스카 gyre의 계절적 위치 변동은 없으며, 관측된 경년변화는 중규모 와류가 역학심도 계산에 영향을 미친 결과로 보인다. 이러한 중규모 와류는 수온 염분 관측, 부표추적 실험, 그리고 인공위성에 의한 해수면 관측에서도 관측되었다.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• 제17권6호
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• pp.565-572
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• 2019

Spatial variability is an inherent characteristic of soil, and auto-correlation length (ACL) is a very important parameter in the reliability or probabilistic analyses of geotechnical engineering that consider the spatial variability of soils. Current methods for estimating the ACL need a large amount of laboratory or in-situ experiments, which is a great obstacle to the application of random field theory to geotechnical reliability analysis and design. To estimate the ACL reasonably and efficiently, we propose a micro-structure based numerical simulation method. The quartet structure generation set algorithm is used to generate stochastic numerical micro-structure of soils, and scanning electron microscope test of soil samples combined with digital image processing technique is adopted to obtain parameters needed in the QSGS algorithm. Then, 2-point correlation function is adopted to calculate the ACL based on the generated numerical micro-structure of soils. Results of a case study shows that the ACL can be estimated efficiently using the proposed method. Sensitivity analysis demonstrates that the ACL will become stable with the increase of mesh density and model size. A model size of $300{\times}300$ with a grid size of $1{\times}1$ is suitable for the calculation of the ACL of clayey soils.