• Title/Summary/Keyword: Model over-fitting

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RELATIONSHIPS OF THE SOLAR WIND PARAMETERS WITH THE MAGNETIC STORM MAGNITUDE AND THEIR ASSOCIATION WITH THE INTERPLANETARY SHOCK

  • OH SU YEON;YI YU
    • Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.151-157
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    • 2004
  • It is investigated quantitative relations between the magnetic storm magnitude and the solar wind parameters such as the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (hereinafter, IMF) magnitude (B), the southward component of IMF (Bz), and the dynamic pressure during the main phase of the magnetic storm with focus on the role of the interplanetary shock (hereinafter, IPS) in order to build the space weather fore-casting model in the future capable to predict the occurrence of the magnetic storm and its magnitude quantitatively. Total 113 moderate and intense magnetic storms and 189 forward IPSs are selected for four years from 1998 to 2001. The results agree with the general consensus that solar wind parameter, especially, Bz component in the shocked gas region plays the most important role in generating storms (Tsurutani and Gonzales, 1997). However, we found that the correlations between the solar wind parameters and the magnetic storm magnitude are higher in case the storm happens after the IPS passing than in case the storm occurs without any IPS influence. The correlation coefficients of B and $BZ_(min)$ are specially over 0.8 while the magnetic storms are driven by IPSs. Even though recently a Dst prediction model based on the real time solar wind data (Temerin and Li, 2002) is made, our correlation test results would be supplementary in estimating the prediction error of such kind of model and in improving the model by using the different fitting parameters in cases associated with IPS or not associated with IPS rather than single fitting parameter in the current model.

ON ESTIMATION OF NEGATIVE POLYA-EGGENBERGER DISTRIBUTION AND ITS APPLICATIONS

  • Hassan, Anwar;Bilal, Sheikh
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.81-95
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    • 2008
  • In this paper, the negative Polya-Eggenberger distribution has been introduced by compounding negative binomial distribution with beta distribution of I-kind which generates a number of univariate contagious or compound (or mixture of) distributions as its particular cases. The distribution is unimode, over dispersed and all of its positive and negative integer moments exist. The difference equation of the proposed model shows that it is a member of the Ord's family of distribution. Some of its interesting properties have been explored besides different methods of estimation been discussed. Finally, the parameters of the proposed model have been estimated by using a computer programme in R-software. Application of the proposed model to some data, available in the literature, has been given and its goodness of fit demonstrated.

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A Superior Description of AC Behavior in Polycrystalline Solid Electrolytes with Current-Constriction Effects

  • Lee, Jong-Sook
    • Journal of the Korean Ceramic Society
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    • v.53 no.2
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    • pp.150-161
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    • 2016
  • The conventional brick-layer model is not satisfactory either in theory or in practice for the description of dispersive responses of polycrystalline solid electrolytes with current-constriction effects at the grain boundaries. Parallel networks of complex dielectric functions have been shown to successfully describe the AC responses of polycrystalline sodium conductors over a wide temperature and frequency range using only around ten model parameters of well-defined physical significance. The approach can be generally applied to many solid electrolyte systems. The present work illustrates the approach by simulation. Problems of bricklayer model analysis are demonstrated by fitting analysis of the simulated data under experimental conditions.

Predicting Early Retirees Using Personality Data (인성 데이터를 활용한 조기 퇴사자 예측)

  • Kim, Young Park;Kim, Hyoung Joong
    • Journal of Digital Contents Society
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.141-147
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    • 2018
  • This study analyzed the early retired employees who stayed in company no longer than 3 years based on a certain company's personality evaluation result data. The predicted model was analyzed by dividing into two categories; the manufacture group and the R&D group. Independent variables were selected according to the stepwise method. A logistic regression model was selected as a prediction model among various supervised learning methods, and trained through cross-validation to prevent over-fitting or under-fitting. The accuracy of the two groups were confirmed by the confusion matrix. The most influential factor for early retirement in the manufacture group was revealed as "immersion," and for the R&D group appeared as "antisocial." In the past, people concentrated on collecting data by questionnaire and identifying factors that are highly related to the retirement, but this study suggests a sustainable early retirement prediction model in the future by analyzing the tangible outcome of the recruitment process.

The Applicability Assesment of the Short-term Rainfall Forecasting Using Translation Model (이류모델을 활용한 초단시간 강우예측의 적용성 평가)

  • Yoon, Seong-Sim;Bae, Deg-Hyo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.43 no.8
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    • pp.695-707
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    • 2010
  • The frequency and size of typhoon and local severe rainfall are increasing due to the climate change and the damage also increasing from typhoon and severe rainfall. The flood forecasting and warning system to reduce the damage from typhoon and severe rainfall needs forecasted rainfall using radar data and short-term rainfall forecasting model. For this reason, this study examined the applicability of short-term rainfall forecast using translation model with weather radar data to point out that the utilization of flood forecasting in Korea. This study estimated the radar rainfall using Least-square fitting method and estimated rainfall was used as initial field of translation model. The translation model have verified accuracy of forecasted radar rainfall through the comparison of forecasted radar rainfall and observed rainfall quantitatively and qualitatively. Almost case studies showed that accuracy is over 0.6 within 4 hours leading time and mean of correlation coefficient is over 0.5 within 1 hours leading time in Kwanak and Jindo radar site. And, as the increasing the leading time, the forecast accuracy of precipitation decreased. The results of the calculated Mean Area Precipitation (MAP) showed forecast rainfall tend to be underestimated than observed rainfall but the correlation coefficient more than 0.5. Therefore it showed that translation model could be accurately predicted the rainfall relatively. The present results indicate that possibility of translation model application of Korea just within 2 hours leading forecasted rainfall.

Optimal Forecasting for Sales at Convenience Stores in Korea Using a Seasonal ARIMA-Intervention Model (계절형 ARIMA-Intervention 모형을 이용한 한국 편의점 최적 매출예측)

  • Jeong, Dong-Bin
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.14 no.11
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    • pp.83-90
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    • 2016
  • Purpose - During the last two years, convenient stores (CS) are emerging as one of the most fast-growing retail trades in Korea. The goal of this work is to forecast and to analyze sales at CS using ARIMA-Intervention model (IM) and exponential smoothing method (ESM), together with sales at supermarkets in South Korea. Considering that two retail trades above are homogeneous and comparable in size and purchasing items on off-line distribution channel, individual behavior and characteristic can be detected and also relative superiority of future growth can be forecasted. In particular, the rapid growth of sales at CS is regarded as an everlasting external event, or step intervention, so that IM with season variation can be examined. At the same time, Winters ESM can be investigated as an alternative to seasonal ARIMA-IM, on the assumption that the underlying series shows exponentially decreasing weights over time. In case of sales at supermarkets, the marked intervention could not be found over the underlying periods, so that only Winters ESM is considered. Research Design, Data, and Methodology - The dataset of this research is obtained from Korean Statistical Information Service (1/2010~7/2016) and Survey of Service Trend of Korea Statistics Administration. This work is exploited time series analyses such as IM, ESM and model-fitting statistics by using TSPLOT, TSMODEL, EXSMOOTH, ARIMA and MODELFIT procedures in SPSS 23.0. Results - By applying seasonal ARIMA-Intervention model to sales at CS, the steep and persisting increase can be expected over the next one year. On the other hand, we expect the rate of sales growth of supermarkets to be lagging and tied up constantly in the next 2016 year. Conclusions - Based on 2017 one-year sales forecasts for CS and supermarkets, we can yield the useful information for the development of CS and also for all retail trades. Future study is needed to analyze sales of popular items individually such as tobacco, banana milk, soju and so on and to get segmented results. Furthermore, we can expand sales forecasts to other retail trades such as department stores, hypermarkets, non-store retailing, so that comprehensive diagnostics can be delivered in the future.

Improvement of Active Shape Model for Detecting Face Features in iOS Platform (iOS 플랫폼에서 Active Shape Model 개선을 통한 얼굴 특징 검출)

  • Lee, Yong-Hwan;Kim, Heung-Jun
    • Journal of the Semiconductor & Display Technology
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.61-65
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    • 2016
  • Facial feature detection is a fundamental function in the field of computer vision such as security, bio-metrics, 3D modeling, and face recognition. There are many algorithms for the function, active shape model is one of the most popular local texture models. This paper addresses issues related to face detection, and implements an efficient extraction algorithm for extracting the facial feature points to use on iOS platform. In this paper, we extend the original ASM algorithm to improve its performance by four modifications. First, to detect a face and to initialize the shape model, we apply a face detection API provided from iOS CoreImage framework. Second, we construct a weighted local structure model for landmarks to utilize the edge points of the face contour. Third, we build a modified model definition and fitting more landmarks than the classical ASM. And last, we extend and build two-dimensional profile model for detecting faces within input images. The proposed algorithm is evaluated on experimental test set containing over 500 face images, and found to successfully extract facial feature points, clearly outperforming the original ASM.

System Response of Automotive PEMFC with Dynamic Modeling under Load Change (차량용 PEMFC 동적 모델을 이용한 시스템 부하 응답 특성)

  • Han, Jaeyoung;Kim, Sungsoo;Yu, Sangseok
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Automotive Engineers
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.43-50
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    • 2013
  • The stringent emission regulation and future shortage of fossil fuel motivate the research of alternative powertrain. In this study, a system of proton exchange membrane fuel cell has been modeled to analyze the performance of the fuel cell system for automotive application. The model is composed of the fuel cell stack, air compressor, humidifier, and intercooler, and hydrogen supply which are implemented by using the Matlab/Simulink(R). Fuel cell stack model is empirical model but the water transport model is included so that the system performance can be predicted over various humidity conditions. On the other hand, the model of air compressor is composed of motor, static air compressor, and some manifolds so that the motor dynamics and manifold dynamics can be investigated. Since the model is concentrated on the strategic operation of compressor to reduce the power consumption, other balance of components (BOP) are modeled to be static components. Since the air compressor model is empirical model which is based on curve fitting of experiments, the stack model is validated with the commercial software and the experiments. The dynamics of air compressor is investigated over unit change of system load. The results shows that the power consumption of air compressor is about 12% to 25% of stack gross power and dynamic response should be reduced to optimize the system operation.

Classification of Hyperspectral Images based on Gravity type Model (중력모델에 기반한 하이퍼스텍트럴 영상 분류)

  • Byun, Young-Gi;Lee, Jeong-Ho;Kim, Yong-Min;Kim, Yong-Il
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry, and Cartography Conference
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    • 2007.04a
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    • pp.183-186
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    • 2007
  • Hyperspectral remote sensing data contain plenty of information about objects, which makes object classification more precise. Over the past several years, different algorithms for the classification of hyperspectral remote sensing images have been developed. In this study, we proposed method based on absorption band extraction and Gravity type model to solve hyperspectral image classification problem. In contrast to conventional methods that are based on correlation techniques, this method is simple and more effective. The proposed approach was tested to evaluate its effectiveness. The evaluation was done by comparing the results of preexiting SFF(Spectral Feature Fitting) classification method. The evaluation results showed the proposed approach has a good potential in the classification of hyperspectral images.

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Simulation of the Loudness Recruitment using Sensorineural Hearing Impairment Modeling (감음신경성 난청의 모델링을 통한 라우드니스 누가현상의 시뮬레이션)

  • Kim, D.W.;Park, Y.C.;Kim, W.K.;Doh, W.;Park, S.J.
    • Proceedings of the KOSOMBE Conference
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    • v.1997 no.11
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    • pp.63-66
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    • 1997
  • With the advent of high speed digital signal processing chips, new digital techniques have been introduced to the hearing instrument. This advanced hearing instrument circuitry has led to the need or and the development of new fitting approach. A number of different fitting approaches have been developed over the past few years, yet there has been little agreement on which approach is the "best" or most appropriate to use. However, when we develop not only new hearing aid, but also its fitting method, the intensive subject-based clinical tests are necessarily accompanied. In this paper, we present an objective method to evaluate and predict the performance of hearing aids without the help of such subject-based tests. In the hearing impairment simulation (HIS) algorithm, a sensorineural hearing impairment model is established from auditory test data of the impaired subject being simulated. Also, in the hearing impairment simulation system the abnormal loudness relationships created by recruitment was transposed to the normal dynamic span of hearing. The nonlinear behavior of the loudness recruitment is defined using hearing loss unctions generated from the measurements. The recruitment simulation is validated by an experiment with two impaired listeners, who compared processed speech in the normal ear with unprocessed speech in the impaired ear. To assess the performance, the HIS algorithm was implemented in real-time using a floating-point DSP.

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