• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.54 no.2
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• pp.67-75
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• 2012

Different from other natural hazards including floods, drought advances slowly and spreads widely, so that the preparedness is quite important and effective to mitigate the impacts from drought. Evaluation and forecast the status of drought for the present and future utilizing the meteorological scenario for agricultural drought can be useful to set a plan for agricultural drought mitigation in agriculture water resource management. In this study, drought climate scenario model on the basis of historical drought records for preparing agricultural drought mitigation was developed. To consider dependency and correlation between various climate variables, this model was utilized the historical climate pattern using reference year setting of four drought levels. The reference year for drought level was determined based on the frequency analysis result of monthly effective rainfall. On the basis of this model, drought climate scenarios at Suwon and Icheon station were set up and these scenarios were applied on the water balance simulation of reservoir water storage for Madun reservoir as well as the soil moisture model for Gosam reservoir watershed. The results showed that drought climate scenarios in this study could be more useful for long-term forecast of longer than 2~3 months period rather than short-term forecast of below one month.

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2009.02b
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• pp.25-25
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• 2009

• Advances in environmental research
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• v.1 no.2
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• pp.125-142
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• 2012

Clean development mechanism (CDM) validity study was conducted to suggest better and more adaptable CDM scenario on water treatment plant (WTP). Potential four scenarios for CDM project; improvement of intake pumping efficiency, hydro power plant construction, solar panel construction and system optimization of mechanical mixing process were evaluated on S-WTP in Korea. Net present value (NPV) of each scenario was estimated based on sensitivity analysis with the variable factors to investigate the CDM validity percentile. Hydro power plant construction was the best option for CDM business with 97.76% validity and $1,127,069 mean profit by 9,813 $tonsCO_2e$/yr reduction. CDM validity on improvement of intake pumping efficiency was 90.2% with $124,305 mean profit by huge amount of $CO_2$ mitigation (10,347 $tonsCO_2e$/yr). System optimization of mechanical mixing process reduced 15% of energy consumption (3,184 $tonsCO_2e$/yr) and its CDM validity and mean profit was 77.25% and $23,942, respectively. Solar panel construction could make the effect of 14,094 $tonsCO_2$ mitigation annually and its CDM validity and mean profit was 64.68% and $228,487, respectively.

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2007.02a
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• pp.148-151
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• 2007

The Korea Meteorological Administration has been operating a tsunami warning system which is based on tsunami scenario database for the East Sea. Recently, the tsunami scenario database for the Yellow sea and the East China sea is also generated so that the tsunami warning system is extended to the whole Korean seas. Tsunami scenario database includes tsunami arrival times and heights generated by performing huge numbers of tsunami propagation simulations. A leap-frog method for shallow water equation is used for the simulation. The simulation code is parallellized via Message Passing Interface and has run on Cray X1E.

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2008.02a
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• pp.261-263
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• 2008

Determining the most likelihood earthquake scenario in one region is very important for performing an earthquake-resistant design. The most likelihood earthquake scenario can be selected by performing deaggregation, who classifies earthquakes that occur ground motion exceeding a specific acceleration as each distance and each earthquake magnitude. If earthquakes are classified, the most likelihood earthquake scenario can be selected. Earthquake hazard analysis method that have to be performed before deaggregation follows the method that Ministry of Construction & Transportation presented. As a result of performing deaggregation at longitude 127.35 and latitude 34.7, presentable seismic ground motion scenarios can be selected at each recurrence period.

• Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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• v.34 no.3
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• pp.177-188
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• 2012

This study was mainly focused on the development of GIS based decision support system to easily make mitigation scenarios and to conveniently simulate water quality for TMDL. The study area was the 31km section of upper Sapgyo stream in Geum river basin, and QUAL2E model was adopted. GIS DB was built through the collection of the data which includes point/non-point source attributes and various thematic maps. The amounts of discharged loads of BOD, T-N and T-P from unit watershed were estimated respectively. Finally, the system, which can operate water quality simulation through simply modifying their values, was developed. The hypothetical three mitigation scenarios were applied, thereby the most efficient mitigation scenario could be chosen by comparison of the results based on GIS. Therefore, it is expected that the developed system can facilitate the decision makers to select the best alternative through the analysis of the available BMPs. Also, it can be used to develop new scenarios using different methods and algorithms. In the future, more study need to be made to enhance its applicability in the perspective of developing mitigation scenarios through the management of individual pollutant sources and extending study areas.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.7 no.2
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• pp.71-82
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• 1998

This study focuses on one of the most typical energy-intensive industries, the steel industry. The two-fold purpose of the study is to develop a model to assess measures to alleviate sulfur dioxide($SO_2$) emissions from the steel industry and to propose a concrete $SO_2$ emission reduction measure from the steel industry. This study partially employed and modified AIM(Asia-Pacific Integrated Model) developed by Japan National Environmental Research Institute to develop AIM/KOREA SULFUR model for simulation. In the study, a base scenario, which is BAU(Business As Usual) scenario, and mitigation scenarios(a use of low-sulfur contain fuel, fuel conversion to cleaner energy, an induction of desulfurization systems, and energy saving) were employed. The results of the simulation are summarized below: The sulphur dioxide emission from the steel industry in 1992 was estimated to be 252,000 metric tons; however, according to BAU scenario, sulphur dioxide emission is expected to be increased to 586,000 metric tons, which is 2.3 times greater than that in 1992 by year 2020. To alleviate such increasement, simulation results under various 7scenarios proved that some degrees of reduction may be possible by an induction of desulfurization systems although there may be numerous ways to interpretate the simulation results; however, the bottom line is that it appears to be difficult to achieve the Korean Ministry of Environment's policy goal-a mitigation of sulphur dioxide concentration to 0.01ppm.

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2010.02a
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• pp.10-15
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• 2010

The performance analysis of water systems is very important to urban disaster mitigation. It will benefit the task of preparedness and emergency response through a more practical and more quantitative approach. In this research work, an overview of hydraulics of water system has been provided. A methodology for such implementation based on scenario simulation and hydraulic analysis has been developed. The water system of Taipei Water Department was selected as a test bed for case study. Its serviceability following a major earthquake around Taipei metropolitan area has been quantified.

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2009.02b
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• pp.13-24
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• 2009

This paper introduces various kinds of applications of the scenario-based seismic risk assessment in Taiwan. Seismic scenario simulation (SSS) is a GIS-based technique to assess distribution of ground shaking intensity, soil liquefaction probability, building damages and associated casualties, interruption of lifeline systems, economic losses, etc. given source parameters of an earthquake. The SSS may integrate with rapid earthquake information release system to obtain valuable information and to assist in decision-making processes to dispatch rescue and medical resources efficiently. The SSS may also integrate with probabilistic seismic hazard analysis to evaluate various kinds of risk estimates, such as average annual loss and probable maximum loss in one event, in a probabilistic sense and to help proposing feasible countermeasures.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.7 no.1
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• pp.85-93
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• 2016

This study the efficiency of greenhouse gas reduction of 'low carbon car collaboration fund' and its alternative 'control of average fuel efficiency and greenhouse gas', and 'improving driving behavior' were analyzed by using LEAP, long term energy analysis model. Total 4 scenarios were set, baseline scenario, without energy-saving activity, 'low carbon car collaboration fund' scenario, 'fuel efficiency improving scenario', and 'improving driving behavior' scenario. The contents of analysis were forecast of energy demand by scenario and application as well as reduction of greenhouse gas emission volume, and the period taken for analysis was every 1 year during 2015~2030. Baseline scenario, greenhouse gas emission volume in 2015 would be 7,935,697 M/T and 13,081,986 M/T in 2030, increased 64.8%. The analysis result was average annual increase rate of 3.4%. The expected average annual increase rate of other scenarios was, 'low carbon car collaboration fund' scenario 1.7%, 'fuel efficiency improving' scenario 3.0%. and 'improving driving behavior' scenario 3.4%. and these were each 1.7%, 0.3%. 0.3% reduce from baseline scenario. The largest reduction was 'low carbon car collaboration fund' scenario, and there after were 'fuel efficiency improving scenario', and 'improving driving behavior' scenario.