• Title/Summary/Keyword: Mission Reliability Prediction

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A Study on the Aircraft Mission Reliability Prediction (항공기 임무신뢰도 예측 방안 연구)

  • Lee Joon-Woo;Ju Hyun-Joon;Lee Min-Koo
    • Journal of Applied Reliability
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.115-134
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    • 2006
  • This paper deals with OO aircraft mission reliability prediction. To demonstrate user-required mission reliability, it is calculated with use general formulae which are used in reliability engineering. The mission reliability of OO aircraft is calculated in considering conversion factor (CF) on the each subsystems' MTBF. The prediction results are explained only the state at present time. Because these data are not real data in operational environments. Therefore, in the case of OO aircraft, it has to be needed collecting the real and renewal data which are operational and empirical. After that, continuing the data upgrading, it is easily closed to the more exact reliability value.

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A Study on the Improvement of Reliability Prediction Model for Guided Missile (유도탄의 신뢰도 예측 모델 개선에 관한 연구)

  • Seo, Yang Woo;Yoon, Jung Hwan;Kim, Hee Wook;Kim, Jung Tae
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Systems Engineering
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.9-17
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    • 2020
  • Currently, Storage Reliability is analyzed when predicting the reliability of guided missile. However, Mission Reliability and Logistics Reliability should be analyzed according to the definition of reliability in MIL-STD-785B. Therefore, it is necessary to accurately predict the reliability of guided missile based on the definition of reliability. In this paper, we proposed improved the reliability procedure and model for guided missile based on which the definition of reliability considering the mission profile. The proposed model can calculate the final failure rate by applying the ratio of the dormant and storage according to the mission profile. The proposed model has been confirmed to be more accurate than the existing model compared to the actual failure rate value. The results of this study can be useful for applying the reliability prediction to any guided missile.

Life Prediction of Failure Mechanisms of the CubeSat Mission Board using Sherlock of Reliability and Life Prediction Tools (신뢰성 수명예측 도구 Sherlock을 이용한 큐브위성용 임무보드의 고장 메커니즘별 수명예측)

  • Jeon, Su-Hyeon;Kwon, Yae-Ha;Kwon, Hyeong-Ahn;Lee, Yong-Geun;Lim, In-OK;Oh, Hyun-Ung
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.44 no.2
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    • pp.172-180
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    • 2016
  • A cubesat classified as a pico-satellite typically uses commercial-grade components that satisfy the vibration and thermal environmental specifications and goes into mission orbit even after undergoing minimum environment tests due to their lower cost and short development period. However, its reliability exposed to the physical environment such as on-orbit thermal vacuum for long periods cannot be assured under minimum tests criterion. In this paper, we have analysed the reliability and life prediction of the failure mechanisms of the cubesat mission board during its service life under the launch and on-orbit environment by using the sherlock software which has been widely used in automobile fields to predict the reliability of electronic devices.

Mission Reliability Prediction Using Bayesian Approach (베이지안기법에 의한 임무 신뢰도 예측)

  • ;;;Jun, C. H.;Chang, S. Y.;Lim, H. R.
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.71-78
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    • 1993
  • A Baysian approach is proposed is estimating the mission failure rates by criticalities. A mission failure which occurs according to a Poisson process with unknown rate is assumed to be classified as one of the criticality levels with an unknown probability. We employ the Gamma prior for the mission failure rate and the Dirichlet prior for the criticality probabilities. Posterior distributions of the mission rates by criticalities and predictive distributions of the time to failure are derived.

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Implementation and Test of the Automatic Flight Dynamics Operations for Geostationary Satellite Mission

  • Park, Sang-Wook;Lee, Young-Ran;Lee, Byoung-Sun;Hwang, Yoo-La;Galilea, Javier Santiago Noguero
    • Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.635-642
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    • 2009
  • This paper describes the Flight Dynamics Automation (FDA) system for COMS Flight Dynamics System (FDS) and its test result in terms of the performance of the automation jobs. FDA controls the flight dynamics functions such as orbit determination, orbit prediction, event prediction, and fuel accounting. The designed FDA is independent from the specific characteristics which are defined by spacecraft manufacturer or specific satellite missions. Therefore, FDA could easily links its autonomous job control functions to any satellite mission control system with some interface modification. By adding autonomous system along with flight dynamics system, it decreases the operator's tedious and repeated jobs but increase the usability and reliability of the system. Therefore, FDA is used to improve the completeness of whole mission control system's quality. The FDA is applied to the real flight dynamics system of a geostationary satellite, COMS and the experimental test is performed. The experimental result shows the stability and reliability of the mission control operations through the automatic job control.

Sensitivity Analysis for Reliability Prediction Standard: Focusing on MIL-HDBK-217F, RiAC-HDBK-217Plus, FIDES (신뢰도 예측 규격의 민감도 분석: MIL-HDBK-217F, RiAC-HDBK-217Plus, FIDES를 중심으로)

  • Oh, JaeYun;Park, SangChul;Jang, JoongSoon
    • Journal of Applied Reliability
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.92-102
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    • 2017
  • Purpose: Reliability prediction standards consider environmental conditions, such as temperature, humidity and vibration in order to predict the reliability of the electronics components. There are many types of standards, and each standard has a different failure rate prediction model, and requires different environmental conditions. The purpose of this study is to make a sensitivity analysis by changing the temperature which is one of the environmental conditions. By observing the relation between the temperature and the failure rate, we perform the sensitivity analysis for standards including MIL-HDBK-217F, RiAC-HDBK-217Plus and FIDES. Methods: we establish environmental conditions in accordance with maneuver weapon systems's OMS/MP and mission scenarios then predict the reliability using MIL-HDBK-217F, RiAC-HDBK-217Plus and FIDES through the case of DC-DC Converter. Conclusion: Reliability prediction standards show different sensitivities of their failure rates with respect to the changing temperatures.

L.E.O. Satellite Power Subsystem Reliability Analysis

  • Zahran M.;Tawfik S.;Dyakov Gennady
    • Journal of Power Electronics
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.104-113
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    • 2006
  • Satellites have provided the impetus for the orderly development of reliability engineering research and analysis because they tend to have complex systems and hence acute problems. They were instrumental in developing mathematical models for reliability, as well as design techniques to permit quantitative specification, prediction and measurement of reliability. Reliability engineering is based on implementing measures which insure an item will perform its mission successfully. The discipline of reliability engineering consists of two fundamental aspects; $(1^{st})$ paying attention to details, and $(2^{nd})$ handling uncertainties. This paper uses some of the basic concepts, formulas and examples of reliability theory in application. This paper emphasizes the practical reliability analysis of a Low Earth Orbit (LEO) Micro-satellite power subsystem. Approaches for specifying and allocating the reliability of each element of the power system so as to meet the overall power system reliability requirements, as well as to give detailed modeling and predicting of equipment/system reliability are introduced. The results are handled and analyzed to form the final reliability results for the satellite power system. The results show that the Electric Power Subsystem (EPS) reliability meets the requirements with quad microcontrollers (MC), two boards working as main and cold redundant while each board contains two MCs in a hot redundant.

다목적실용위성 2호기 신뢰성 및 FMECA

  • Lee, Chang-Ho
    • Aerospace Engineering and Technology
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.44-53
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    • 2003
  • The purpose of reliability prediction is to estimate the basic reliability and basic reliability and mission reliability of system and to make a determination of whether these reliability requirements can be achieved with the proposed design. Also, potential design weakness can be identified through the FMECA process. This technical memo summarizes the KOMPSAT-2 reliability and FMECA analysis results.

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저궤도 상용위성의 시스템 수준 FMECA

  • Lee, Chang-Ho;Cho, Young-Jun
    • Aerospace Engineering and Technology
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.71-78
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    • 2005
  • The purpose of FMECA is to identify parts and design whose damage can effect the mission performance and to improve the spacecraft design using these data. In consequence of this analysis, each failure mode which can be happened during operation and manufacturing period is identified, and their effects on mission performance are reviewed. In this technical report, the FMECA procedures and results for the satellite which is now under development are showed.

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Bayesian estimation for Rayleigh models

  • Oh, Ji Eun;Song, Joon Jin;Sohn, Joong Kweon
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.875-888
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    • 2017
  • The Rayleigh distribution has been commonly used in life time testing studies of the probability of surviving until mission time. We focus on a reliability function of the Rayleigh distribution and deal with prior distribution on R(t). This paper is an effort to obtain Bayes estimators of rayleigh distribution with three different prior distribution on the reliability function; a noninformative prior, uniform prior and inverse gamma prior. We have found the Bayes estimator and predictive density function of a future observation y with each prior distribution. We compare the performance of the Bayes estimators under different sample size and in simulation study. We also derive the most plausible region, prediction intervals for a future observation.