• 한국도로학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2009.11a
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• pp.297-302
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• 2009

• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.13-20
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• 2016

Microsimulation model has aimed to simulate the impact of policy at the level of individual and household. Recently, microsimulation model has been widely accepted in OECD countries for evaluating their economic and social policies. For improving the availability of microsimulation model, the population data which shows good accordance with the official statistics should be required. In this paper, we generate Korean synthetic populations by using the iterative proportional updating method. For the validation of Korean synthetic populations, we compute the difference between the generated synthetic populations and the summary table of Korean census. Then, we confirm that it shows good accordance with the summary table.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.155-163
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• 2021

The study aims to investigate the effect on Philippine occupational choice of House Bill No.7787, also known as the National Wage Law, which was filled by the Philippine Congress that mandates the implementation of an across the board minimum daily wage of Php750.00 to all workers in the Philippines. This study had used the Computable General Equilibrium-Top-Down Behavioral Microsimulation approach to determine the effect of National Wage Law on occupational choice. The results of the study revealed that the implementation of said National Wage Law would affect the distribution of labor force across occupational classification such as wage workers, entrepreneurial farming activities workers, and entrepreneurial non-farming activities workers. This has resulted from a higher utility that will be derived from the wage working sector once the National Wage Law will be implemented. Further, among regions in the Philippines, the Calabarzon, National Capital Region, and Central Luzon had recorded the highest number of workers who prefer the wage income sector. The findings of the study also suggest that the Philippine agricultural sector will be greatly affected by the National Wage Law due to the preference of workers to shift from the entrepreneurial farming sector to belong to the wage sector.

• Health Policy and Management
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.185-194
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• 2016

Background: The purpose of this study is to forecast changes in the prevalence of chronic diseases and health expenditure by age group. Methods: Based on the Future Elderly Model, this study projects the size of Korean population, the prevalence of chronic diseases, and health expenditure over the 2014-2040 period using two waves (2012, 2013) of the Korea Health Panel and National Health Insurance Service database. Results: First, the prevalence of chronic diseases increases by 2040. The population with hypertension increases 2.04 times; the diabetes increases 2.43 times; and the cancer increases 3.38 times. Second, health expenditure on chronic diseases increases as well. Health expenditure on hypertension increases 4.33 times (1,098,753 million won in 2014 to 4,760,811 million won in 2040); diabetes increases 5.34 times (792,444 million won in 2014 to 4,232,714 million won in 2040); and cancer increases 6.09 times (4,396,223 million won in 2014 to 26,776,724 million won in 2040). Third, men and women who belong to the early middle-aged group (44-55 years old) as of 2014, have the highest increase rate in health spending. Conclusion: Most Korean literature on health expenditure estimation employs a macro-simulation approach and does not fully take into account personal characteristics and behaviors. Thus, this study aims to benefit medical administrators and policy makers to frame effective and targeted health policies by analyzing personal-level data with a microsimulation model and providing health expenditure projections by age group.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.305-336
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• 2022

This study applied the macro-micro simulation model (i.e., what-if analysis) to investigate the impact of transport related to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on poverty and income inequality in Laos. We selected Laos as a case study of a developing country. We used the standard GTAP model with the GTAP database (version 10) for the macrosimulation, whereas we used the household model with the latest Lao household data from 2019 for the microsimulation. Our findings revealed that the output of the Lao economy was anticipated to increase by up to 0.3%, while the poverty rate was anticipated to decline from 17.0% to 15.7%. However, there would be winners and losers in industries and groups of households in different areas. In particular, rich households with a comparative socioeconomic advantage, such as in education, engagement in nonfarm business, and infrastructure access, would mostly gain benefits; consequently, this would lead to higher inequality in Laos. Therefore, the inequality index (i.e., the Gini coefficient) would increase from 41.2 to 60.1. After a simulation of BRI transport, we also found that some nonpoor households, which are mainly associated with farm activities and lower educational levels, would fall into poverty.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.12 no.4
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• pp.33-43
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• 2013

Comparing to the constant-increasing number of vehicles, road facilities supply such as road construction has already reached the uppermost limit. As one of the most serious issues that the public would personally deal with every day, such is some road traffic problem to be solved instantly. Median exclusive bus lane is now being conducted as a way to enhance efficiency of the public transportation system in Transportation System Management, and with a main arterial that connects Kyeryong-ro (Wolpyeong 3~West Daejeon 4, 6.3km) and Daedeok-daero (Daedeok Bridge 4~Kyeryong 4, 2.6km) in Daejeon adopted as a research target, the study analyzed effects of the arterial by VISSIM the microsimulation. During the analysis, the study focused on figuring out effects of owner-drivers' transport mode choice to take a bus a public transit. According to the simulation results, as people take a bus at the median exclusive bus lane not crb bus lane, traffic for general vehicles has been negatively effected with less drive ways for the vehicles. However, when it comes to the bus traffic, the new transport mode choice appeared to have a quite positive influence after all. A binary logit model analysis reported that owner-drivers might take a bus more often when they earn lower incomes, when they do not travel far, when poor parking is expected and lastly, when they are familiar with using the median exclusive bus lane.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.257-286
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• 2017

This paper estimates the effects of imaginary repeated increases in excise duties on fuel oil consumption and on their income redistribution according to changes in consumer price index, if the inflation indexation system was introduced right after the second Energy Tax Reform ended in July, 2007 in Korea. In fact, nominal excise rates have not been adjusted since 2007. As a result, the real excise rates on fuel oils have been diminished inversely proportional to the consumer price index. Own- and cross-price elasticities of fuel oils such as gasoline and diesel oil are estimated under the general equilibrium framework based on the linear expenditure system. Counterfactual analyses through microsimulation in a static model are adopted to estimate the effects of introducing inflation indexation into the fuel tax in 2007 when the second Energy Tax reform ended on the fuel consumption and income redistribution in 2014. Microsimulations suggest that its introduction could have reduced the consumption of gasoline and diesel oil by 8.8% and 5.4%, respectively, ending up with increased excise revenue by 11.9%. The revenue increase in spite of decreased consumption is mainly because their demands are price inelastic. It could also have increased positive income redistributive effect by 0.01%p (from 0.12% to 0.13%), which is measured in terms of percentage decrease in Gini coefficient. In other words, the fuel excise on the two fuel oils decreased by 0.13% the Gini coefficient of before and after fuel tax income in 2014. This implies that the inflation indexation could have enlarged the income redistributive effect up to 0.13% in 2014, if it is introduced in 2007.

• 한국사회정책
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.3-35
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• 2018

This article critically reviews the arguments that deny the financial feasbility and effectiveness of universal basic income as an alternative to existing social security systems and makes some suggestions to design effective and efficient basic income schemes. Regarding the financial feasibility of universal basic income, I argue that replacement of the existing regressive tax expenditures with universal basic income without raising tax rates can effectively reduce tax burden or provide income support to a majority of people except the rich. Addition of basic income to the tax base and reduction of the number of beneficiaries of public assistance and the amount of cash payment for them can further help save money. Regarding the redistributive effect, I note that the targeting ability of the existing social security systems is not good and that "the paradox of redistribution" that universal-type programs tend to be more redistributive than selective programs applies to universal basic income as well. I demonstrate significant redistributive effect of a hypothetical revenue-neutral basic income scheme and reviews several empirical studies done in Korea and abroad to show that basic income can be more effective in redistribution than social insurances or public assistance programs. Lastly, I emphasize the need to construct a reliable tax-benefit microsimulation model to help researchers to study redistributive effects of basic income schemes and other taxes and social policies.