• Title/Summary/Keyword: Meteorological models

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Evaluation of the East Asian Summer Monsoon Season Simulated in CMIP5 Models and the Future Change (CMIP5 모델에 나타난 동아시아 여름몬순의 모의 성능평가와 미래변화)

  • Kwon, Sang-Hoon;Boo, Kyung-On;Shim, Sungbo;Byun, Young-Hwa
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.133-150
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    • 2017
  • This study evaluates CMIP5 model performance on rainy season evolution in the East Asian summer monsoon. Historical (1986~2005) simulation is analyzed using ensemble mean of CMIP5 19 models. Simulated rainfall amount is underestimated than the observed and onset and termination of rainy season are earlier in the simulation. Compared with evolution timing, duration of the rainy season is uncertain with large model spread. This area-averaged analysis results mix relative differences among the models. All model show similarity in the underestimated rainfall, but there are quite large difference in dynamic and thermodynamic processes. The model difference is shown in horizontal distribution analysis. BEST and WORST group is selected based on skill score. BEST shows better performance in northward movement of the rain band, summer monsoon domain. Especially, meridional gradient of equivalent potential temperature and low-level circulation for evolving frontal system is quite well captured in BEST. According to RCP8.5, CMIP5 projects earlier onset, delayed termination and longer duration of the rainy season with increasing rainfall amount at the end of 21st century. BEST and WORST shows similar projection for the rainy season evolution timing, meanwhile there are large discrepancy in thermodynamic structure. BEST and WORST in future projection are different in moisture flux, vertical structure of equivalent potential temperature and the subsequent unstable changes in the conditional instability.

The Joint Frequency Function for Long-term Air Quality Prediction Models (장기 대기확산 모델용 안정도별 풍향·풍속 발생빈도 산정 기법)

  • Kim, Jeong-Soo;Choi, Doug-Il
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.95-105
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    • 1996
  • Meteorological Joint Frequency Function required indispensably in long-term air quality prediction models were discussed for practical application in Korea. The algorithm, proposed by Turner(l964), is processed with daily solar insolation and cloudiness and height basically using Pasquill's atmospheric stability classification method. In spite of its necessity and applicability, the computer program, called STAR(STability ARray), had some significant difficulties caused from the difference in meteorological data format between that of original U.S. version and Korean's. To cope with the problems, revised STAR program for Korean users were composed of followings; applicability in any site of Korea with regard to local solar angle modification; feasibility with both of data which observed by two classes of weather service centers; and examination on output format associated with prediction models which should be used.

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A Short-term Forecasting of Water Supply Demands by the Transfer Function Model (Transfer Function 모형을 이용한 수도물 수요의 단기예측)

  • Lee, Jae-Joon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.88-103
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    • 1996
  • The objective of this study is to develop stochastic and deterministic models which could be used to synthesize water application time series. Adaptive models using mulitivariate ARIMA(Transfer Function Model) are developed for daily urban water use forecasting. The model considers several variables on which water demands is dependent. The dynamic response of water demands to several factors(e.g. weekday, average temperature, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, humidity, cloudiness, rainfall) are characterized in the model by transfer functions. Daily water use data of Kumi city in 1992 are employed for model parameter estimation. Meteorological data of Seonsan station are utilized to input variables because Kumi has no records about the meteorological factor data.To determine the main factors influencing water use, autocorrelogram and cross correlogram analysis are performed. Through the identification, parameter estimation, and diagnostic checking of tentative model, final transfer function models by each month are established. The simulation output by transfer function models are compared to a historical data and shows the good agreement.

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Development on Crop Yield Forecasting Model for Major Vegetable Crops using Meteorological Information of Main Production Area (주산지 기상정보를 활용한 주요 채소작물의 단수 예측 모형 개발)

  • Lim, Chul-Hee;Kim, Gang Sun;Lee, Eun Jung;Heo, Seongbong;Kim, Teayeon;Kim, Young Seok;Lee, Woo-Kyun
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.193-203
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    • 2016
  • The importance of forecasting agricultural production is receiving attention while climate change is accelerating. This study suggested three types of crop yield forecasting model for major vegetable crops by using downscaled meteorological information of main production area on farmland level, which identified as limitation from previous studies. First, this study conducted correlation analysis with seven types of farm level downscaled meteorological informations and reported crop yield of main production area. After, we selected three types of meteorological factors which showed the highest relation with each crop species and regions. Parameters were deducted from meterological factor with high correlation but crop species number was neglected. After, crop yield of each crops was estimated by using the three suggested types of models. Chinese cabbage showed high accuracy in overall, while the accuracy of daikon and onion was quiet revised by neglecting the outlier. Chili and garlic showed differences by region, but Kyungbuk chili and Chungnam, Kyungsang garlic appeared significant accuracy. We also selected key meteorological factor of each crops which has the highest relation with crop yield. If the factor had significant relation with the quantity, it explains better about the variations of key meteorological factor. This study will contribute to establishing the methodology of future studies by estimating the crop yield of different species by using farmland meterological information and relatively simplify multiple linear regression models.

WRF Physics Models Using GP-GPUs with CUDA Fortran (WRF 물리 과정의 GP-GPU 계산을 위한 CUDA Fortran 프로그램 구현)

  • Kim, Youngtae;Lee, Yong Hee;Chung, Kwan-Young
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.231-235
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    • 2013
  • We parallelized WRF major physics routines for Nvidia GP-GPUs with CUDA Fortran. GP-GPUs are originally designed for graphic processing, but show high performance with low electricity for calculating numerical models. In the CUDA environment, a data domain is allocated into thread blocks and threads in each thread block are computing in parallel. We parallelized the WRF program to use of thread blocks efficiently. We validated the GP-GPU program with the original CPU program, and the WRF model using GP-GPUs shows efficient speedup.

Development of Web-GIS based SWAT Data Generation System (Web-GIS 기반 SWAT 자료 공급 시스템 구축)

  • Nam, Won-Ho;Choi, Jin-Yong;Hong, Eun-Mi;Kim, Hak-Kwan
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.51 no.6
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2009
  • Watershed topographical data is essential for the management for water resources and watershed management in terms of hydrology analysis. Collecting watershed topographical and meteorological data is the first step for simulating hydrological models and calculating hydrological components. This study describes a specialized Web-based Geographic Information Systems, Soil Water Assessment Tool model data generation system, which was developed to support SWAT model operation using Web-GIS capability for map browsing, online watershed delineation and topographical and meteorological data extraction. This system tested its operability extracting watershed topographical and meteorological data in real time and the extracted spatial and weather data were seamlessly imported to ArcSWAT system demonstrating its usability. The Web-GIS would be useful to users who are willing to operate SWAT models for the various watershed management purposes in terms of spatial and weather preparing.

The Modulation of Currents and Waves near the Korean Marginal seas computed by using MM5/KMA and WAVEWATHC-III model

  • Seo, Jang-Won;Chang, You-Soon
    • Proceedings of the Korean Environmental Sciences Society Conference
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    • 2003.11a
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    • pp.37-42
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    • 2003
  • We have analyzed the characteristics of the sea surface winds and wind waves near the Korean marginal seas on the basis of prediction results of the sea surface winds from MM5/KMA model, which is being used for the operation system at the Korea Meteorological observation buoy data to verify the model results during Typhoon events. The correlation coefficients between the models and observation data reach up to about 95%, supporting that these models satisfactorily simulate the sea surface winds and wave heights even at the coastal regions. Based on these verification results, we have carried out numerical experiments about the wave modulation. When there exist an opposite strong current for the propagation direction of the waves or wind direction, wave height and length gets higher and shorter, and vice versa. It is proved that these modulations of wave parameters are well generated when wind speed is relatively week.

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Internet-based RAMINS II as a Future Communication Framework for AgroMeteorological Information in Asia (아시아 지역 농업기상정보 공유를 위한 인터넷기반 기상정보 연동시스템)

  • Byong-Lyol Lee;G. Ali Kamali;Wang Shili
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.127-132
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    • 2002
  • All the countries in RA II (Asia Region in WMO) welcome the establishment of a Web site dedicated to agricultural meteorology, because it is believed that the best way to improve and speed up the flow of information is the use of the Internet and the establishment of a Web site. In providing recommendation for the promotion and improvement of the AgroMeteorological service in RA II, a couple of key suggestions were proposed: (a) Exchanges of data and AgroMeteorological knowledge between member countries and between RAs, (b) Exchanges of experts between member countries as a necessary way to share the knowledge, and (c) Joint research between member countries to solve common problems in AgroMeteorological affairs. In order to meet the above requirements for RA II, an AgroMeteorological information network will be the most critical and dynamic aspect in sustainable agriculture in this region. In addition, the establishment of a Core AgroMeteorological station, recommended by CAgM of WMO, will require its own information sharing systems for communication among member countries. Inevitable use of information technologies (IT) such as information networks, databases, simulation models, GIS, and RS for regional impact assessment of environmental change on AgroEcosystem will be enforced. Thus, the regional Internet-based Agrometeorological information network has been in place since 1999, though all contributions to it have been volunteered by individuals, institutes, universities, etc.

Applicability evaluation of aerodynamic approaches for evaporation estimation using pan evaporation data (증발접시 증발량자료를 이용한 공기동력학적 증발량 산정 방법의 적용성 평가)

  • Rim, Chang-Soo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.50 no.11
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    • pp.781-793
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    • 2017
  • In this study, applicabilities of aerodynamic approaches for the estimation of pan evaporation were evaluated on 56 study stations in South Korea. To accomplish this study purpose, previous researchers' evaporation estimation equations based on aerodynamic approaches were grouped into seven generalized evaporation models. Furthermore, four multiple linear regression (MLR) models were developed and tested. The independent variables of MLR models are meteorological variables such as wind speed, vapor pressure deficit, air temperature, and atmospheric pressure. These meteorological variables are required for the application of aerodynamic approaches. In order to consider the effect of autocorrelation, MLR models were developed after differencing variables. The applicability of MLR models with differenced variables was compared with that of MLR models with undifferenced variables and the comparison results showed no significant difference between the two methods. The study results have indicated that there is strong correlation between estimated pan evaporation (using aerodynamic models and MLR models) and measured pan evaporation. However, pan evaporation are overestimated during August, September, October, November, and December. Most of meteorological variables that are used for MLR models show statistical significance in the estimation of pan evaporation. Vapor pressure deficit was turned out to be the most significant meteorological variable. The second most significant variable was air temperature; wind speed was the third most significant variable, followed by atmospheric pressure.

Air Quality Impact Analysis for Point Sources Using Three-Dimensional Numerical Models (삼차원 수치모델을 이용한 점오염원의 대기환경영향 평가)

  • 김영성;오현선;김진영;강성대;조규탁;홍지형
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.331-345
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    • 2001
  • The increase of carbon monoxide in the ambient air due to the emissions from point sources without control was estimated using three -dimensional numerical models. The target area was Ulsan where one of the largest industrial complexes was located. As a typical example using numerical models for air quality impact analysis of criteria pollutants that will determine whether the air quality standards would be exceeded or not, the following approaches were suggested. They include: (1) investigation of pre-existing atmospheric conditions, (2) identification of major factors causing high concentrations, (3) selection of episode days. (4) preparation of three-dimensional meteorological data, (5) confirmation of agreement between measured and predicted concentrations in the emission conditions of episode days, and (6) estimation of the impact due to changes of the emission conditions. In the present work, daily meteorological conditions for the specific period were classified into four clusters of distinctive features, and the episode days were selected individually from each cluster. Emphasis was placed on the selection of episodes representing meteorological conditions conducive to high concentrations especially for point sources that were sensitive to the wind direction variations.

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