• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.31 no.5
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• pp.454-464
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• 2010

A probability prediction model for tropical cyclone (TC) genesis in the Northwestern Pacific area was developed using the logistic regression method. Total five predictors were used in this model: the lower-level relative vorticity, vertical wind shear, mid-level relative humidity, upper-level equivalent potential temperature, and sea surface temperature (SST). The values for four predictors except for SST were obtained from difference of spatial-averaged value between May and January, and the time average of Ni$\tilde{n}$o-3.4 index from February to April was used to see the SST effect. As a result of prediction for the TC genesis frequency from June to December during 1951 to 2007, the model was capable of predicting that 21 (22) years had higher (lower) frequency than the normal year. The analysis of real data indicated that the number of year with the higher (lower) frequency of TC genesis was 28 (29). The overall predictability was about 75%, and the model reliability was also verified statistically through the cross validation analysis method.

• Atmosphere
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.387-398
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• 2010

This study shows that frequency of tropical cyclone (TC) around Korea in summer (June-September) has positive relation with Arctic Oscillation (AO) in the preceding April. In a positive AO phase, each of anomalous cyclone and anomalous anticyclone is developed in low latitude and middle latitude regions of East Asia from the preceding April to summer. As a result, while anomalous southeasterly around Korea serves as a steering flow that TCs move toward this area is strengthened, northwesterly that reinforced in southeastern area of East Asia plays a role in preventing TCs from moving toward this area. In addition, due to this distribution of pressure systems developed in this AO phase, TCs tend to occur, move and recurve in further northeastern region in the western North Pacific than TCs in a negative AO phase. On the contrary, TCs in a negative AO phase mainly move westward toward southern China or Indochina Peninsula from Philippines. Eventually, intensity of TCs is weaker than those in a positive AO phase due to the terrain effect caused by high passage frequency of TCs in mainland China.

• Atmosphere
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.377-384
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• 2017

The effective management of call centers under special circumstances is critical to improve customer satisfaction. In order to effectively respond to call center counseling demand, this paper aims to identify factors having the greatest impact on the number of Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) call center counseling. To do so, we propose to combine call center data with severe weather announcement data and investigate how the severe weather announcement affects the number of KMA call center counseling. A time lag analysis is conducted and it is found that the severe weather announcement takes about an hour to be reflected in the number of KMA call center counseling. Based on the result of the time lag analysis, we conduct a comparative analysis according to time and season using the data collected from 1 January 2012, to 29 June 2016. The results show that the number of KMA call center counseling increases at lunchtime and decreases during nighttime, and the average rate of change in call center counseling demand tends to be larger under the severe weather announcement. For the comparative analysis according to the season, there are significant differences in the effect of severe weather announcement on the number of KMA call center counseling in spring, fall and winter.

• Atmosphere
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.13-21
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• 2013

In this study, the effects of atmospheric stability and surface temperature on the microscale local airflow are investigated in a hydrological suburban area using a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model. The model domain includes the river and industrial complex for analyzing the effect of water system and topography on local airflow. The surface boundary condition is constructed using a geographic information system (GIS) data in order to more accurately build topography and buildings. In the control experiment, it is shown that the topography and buildings mainly determine the microscale airflow (wind speed and wind direction). The sensitivity experiments of atmospheric stability (neutral, stable, and unstable conditions) represent the slight changes in wind speed with the increase in vertical temperature gradient. The differential heating of ground and water surfaces influences on the local meteorological factors such as air temperature, heat flow, and airflow. These results consequentially suggest that the meteorological impact assessment is accompanied by the changes of background land and atmospheric conditions. It is also demonstrated that the numerical experiments with very high spatial resolution can be useful for understanding microscale local meteorology.

• Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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• v.8 no.4
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• pp.213-220
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• 1992

Simple correlation analysis, factor analysis, and multi-variate analysis have been performed to analyze the relationship between air pollution and meteorological factors for air pollution and meteorological data measured at Kwanghwamun in Seoul during the period of one year(January 1990 $\sim$ December 1990). As a result of simple correlation and factor analysis, $SO_2$, TSP and CO concentrations have shown high negative correlation with temperature and among these indicating that these are related with pollutant emission trend based upon heating fuel usage. Ozone has a good corrleation with solar radiation and relative humidity to have a closed relation with $O_3$ generation reaction mechanism. The result of multi-variate correlation analysis shows that the concentration of $SO_2$ and CO are adequate for correlation model with ambient temperature and wind speed and $O_3$ concentrations are adequate for that with solar radiation and wind speed. $SO_2$ and CO levels are considered to be affected first of all by heating fuel usage as a emssion source and wind speed as a dispersion effect. The $SO_2$ concentration in the condition that the temperature fall below zero is explained by multilicative model with wind speed, only one variable.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.271-281
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• 2009

In order to reduce the uncertainties and improve the air flow field, objective analysis using observational data is chosen as a method that enhances the reality of meteorology. To improve the meteorological components, the radius influence and nudging coefficient of the objective analysis should perform a adequate value on complex area for the objective analysis technique which related to data reliability and error suppression. Several numerical experiments have been undertaken in order to clarify the impacts of the radius influence and nudging coefficient of the objective analysis on meteorological environments. By analyzing practical urban ground conditions, we revealed that there were large differences in the meteorological differences in each case. In order to understand the quantitative impact of each run, the Statistical analysis by estimated by MM5 revealed the differences by the synoptic conditions. The strengthening of the synoptic wind condition tends to be well estimated when using quite a wide radius influence and a small nudging coefficient. On the other hand, the weakening of the synoptic wind is opposite.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.20 no.5
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• pp.765-777
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• 2009

Our study aimed to illustrate long term trend in 10 micrometer particular matters excluding confounding effect. Daily 10 micrometer particular matters data were measured in 27 places and meteorological data (maximum temperature, humidity and maximum wind speed, solar radiation) were obtained from the national institute of environmental research for the period from January, 1996 to December 2000. To estimate the increasing and decreasing long term trend in a set of observed data, set up the model. The model included regression spline smooth function on the time and meteorological factors to capture the seasonal time trend and any possible nonlinear relationship. The result was estimated to decrease slightly after adjusting for meteorological factors and seasonal time trend.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.57 no.1
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• pp.45-51
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• 1982

The environmental influence on cone crop of Pinus koraiensis has been studied by means of correlation and regression analysis of number of 1-year-old cone and meteorological data. A positive effect on cone crop is brought about by low air temperature during the year of flower bud differentiation and much sunshine duration for the year and the winter before flower bud differentiation. The weather of June before flower bud differentiation is very important for cone production.

• Atmosphere
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.309-318
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• 2009

Vulnerability to heat was examined for populations of 6 major cities in South Korea (Seoul, Incheon, Daejeon, Gwangju, Daegu, and Busan). Daily excess mortality and maximum temperature from 1991 to 2005 were employed in this study. The results show that the standardized mortality increase associated with a $1^{\circ}C$ increase in daily maximum temperature above the city-specific threshold explains the heat acclimatization effect better than the threshold temperature itself. The estimated increase in mortality (standardized per 10 million population) associated with a $1^{\circ}C$ increase in temperature above the threshold is 4.8 in Incheon, 4.7 in Seoul, 4.3 in Daejeon, 2.8 in Gwangju, 2.4 in Daegu, and 1.5 in Busan, well reflecting the latitudinal locations and local climates of each city. Climate models project more frequent, more intense, and longer lasting heat waves in most land areas in both hemispheres in the 21st century under increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. In order to mitigate the adverse human health impacts due to excess heat, more detailed characteristics of acclimatization to heat need to be understood and quantified.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.30 no.2
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• pp.89-98
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• 2007

In this paper the economic value of weather forecasts is valuated for profit-oriented enterprise decision-making situations. Value is estimated in terms of monetary profits (or benefits) resulted from the forecast user's decision under the specific payoff structure, which is represented by a profit/loss ratio model combined with a decision function and a value score (VS). The forecast user determines a business-related decision based on the probabilistic forecast, the user's subjective reliability of the forecasts, and the payoff structure specific to the user's business environment. The VS curve for a meteorological forecast is specified by a function of the various profit/loss ratios, providing the scaled economic value relative to the value of a perfect forecast. The proposed valuation method based on the profit/loss ratio model and the VS is adapted for hypothetical sets of forecasts and verified for site-specific probability of precipitation forecast of 12 hour and 24 hour-lead time, which is generated from Korea meteorological administration (KMA). The application results show that forecast information with shorter lead time can provide the decision-makers with great benefits and there are ranges of profit/loss ratios in which high subjective reliability of the given forecast is preferred.