• Atmosphere
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• v.29 no.4
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• pp.451-461
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• 2019

Medium-range forecast is highly dependent on ensemble forecast data. However, operational weather forecasters have not enough time to digest all of detailed features revealed in ensemble forecast data. To utilize the ensemble data effectively in medium-range forecasting, representative weather patterns in East Asia in this study are defined. The k-means clustering analysis is applied for the objectivity of weather patterns. Input data used daily Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) anomaly of the ECMWF ReAnalysis-Interim (ERA-Interim) during 1981~2010 (30 years) provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Using the Explained Variance (EV), the optimal study area is defined by 20~60°N, 100~150°E. The number of clusters defined by Explained Cluster Variance (ECV) is thirty (k = 30). 30 representative weather patterns with their frequencies are summarized. Weather pattern #1 occurred all seasons, but it was about 56% in summer (June~September). The relatively rare occurrence of weather pattern (#30) occurred mainly in winter. Additionally, we investigate the relationship between weather patterns and extreme weather events such as heat wave, cold wave, and heavy rainfall as well as snowfall. The weather patterns associated with heavy rainfall exceeding 110 mm day^-1 were #1, #4, and #9 with days (%) of more than 10%. Heavy snowfall events exceeding 24 cm day^-1 mainly occurred in weather pattern #28 (4%) and #29 (6%). High and low temperature events (> 34℃ and < -14℃) were associated with weather pattern #1~4 (14~18%) and #28~29 (27~29%), respectively. These results suggest that the classification of various weather patterns will be used as a reference for grouping all ensemble forecast data, which will be useful for the scenario-based medium-range ensemble forecast in the future.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.27 no.7
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• pp.804-815
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• 2006

Meteorologists define a drought as a period of common dry weather. This may sound straightforward, but it is not so in reality. In this study, we attempted to identify meteorological drought conditions over South Korea. To evaluate the temporal and spatial variability of drought, we calculated two commonly used drought indices, the percent of normal precipitation (PNP) and the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) calculated from fifty-eight meteorological stations below the Korean Meteorological Administration (KMA). The yearly precipitation has been growing gradually, and the amplitude between maximum and minimum also grow more explicitly from 1960's. According to the analysis of percentile anomaly of monthly precipitation, major drought duration was $1927{\sim}1929,\;1937{\sim}1939,\;1942{\sim}1944,\;1967{\sim}1968,\;1976{\sim}1977,\;1982{\sim}1983,\;1988,\;and\;1994{\sim}1995$. The severe drought occurred most frequently in Mokpo, Daegu, Jeonju, Busan, and Gangneung; it tended to occur more frequently in south sector than in mid sector of Korea and in south west sector than in south east sector. According to the analysis of seasonal distribution, extreme droughts occurred frequently in winter at Seoul, Gangneung, Jeonju, Daegu, and Busan. Severe droughts in summer were formed frequently at Seoul, Gangneung, and Mokpo, while that for spring at Jeonju, Daegu, and Busan. The results of PDSI distribution for the $1994{\sim}1995$ drought period were one of the most severe and widely spreaded droughts; it occurred most frequently in the south sector of South Korea. The comparison of time series between PDSI and Normal Percent showed that they exhibit a strong compatibility for the entire study period; it implies that both drought indices are useful method to indicate drought severity.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.43 no.1
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• pp.1-19
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• 2008

This study intends to clarify the characteristics and causes of current changes in wintertime precipitation in Korea and to predict the future directions based on surface observational $(1973/04\sim2006/07)$ and modeled (GFDL 2.1) climate data. Analyses of surface observation data demonstrate that without changes in the total amount of precipitation, snowfall in winter (November-April) has reduced by 4.3cm/decade over the $1973\sim2007$ period. Moreover, the frequency and intensity of snowfall have decreased; the duration of snow season has shortened; and the snow-to-rain day ratio (STDR) has decreased. These patterns indicate that the type of wintertime precipitation has changed from snow to rain in recent decades. The snow-to-rain change in winter is associated with the increases of air temperature (AT) over South Korea. Analyses of synoptic charts reveal that the warming pattern is associated with the formation of a positive pressure anomaly core over northeast Asia by a hemispheric positive winter Arctic Oscillation (AO) mode. Moreover, the differentiated warming of AT versus sea surface temperature (SST) under the high pressure anomaly core reduces the air-sea temperature gradient, and subsequently it increases the atmospheric stability above oceans, which is associated with less formation of snow cloud. Comparisons of modeled data between torrent $(1981\sim2000)$ and future $(2081\sim2100)$ periods suggest that the intensified warming with larger anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission in the $21^{st}$ century will amplify the magnitude of these changes. More reduction of snow impossible days as well as more abbreviation of snow seasons is predicted in the $21^{st}$ century.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.43 no.5
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• pp.701-714
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• 2008

This study examines the prevailing synoptic-scale mechanisms favorable for long-lived summer Persistent Positive Temperature Anomalies (PPTAs) as well as winter PPTAs in the United States. Such long-lived PPTAs usually occur in the south-central region of the United States in summer, but in the southwestern part of the United States in winter. Composite analyses of surface and pressure level data demonstrate that the formation of both winter and summer PPTAs is closely related to the movement of subtropical high pressure systems in the Pacific Ocean and Atlantic Ocean, respectively. The occurrence of long-lived summer PPTAs usually coincides with an extremely stable atmospheric condition caused by persistent blocking by mid- to upper-tropospheric anticyclones. Significant surface forcing is also easily identified through relatively high Bowen ratios at the surface. Warm air advection is, however, weak and appears to be an insignificant element in the formation of long-lived summer PPTAs. On the other hand, synergistic warming effects associated with adiabatic heating under an anticyclonic blocking system as well as significant warm air advection characterize the favorable synoptic environments for long-lived winter PPTAs. However, the impact of surface forcing mechanisms on winter PPTAs is insignificant.

• Atmosphere
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.457-467
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• 2018

This study investigated the variability of spring (March-May) forest fire risk in Korea for the period 1991~2017 and analyzed its relationship with large-scale climate factors. The Forest Weather Index (FWI) representing the meteorological risk for forest fire occurrences calculated based on observational data and its relationship with large-scale climate factors were analyzed. We performed the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis on the spring FWI. The leading EOF mode of FWI accounting for about 70% of total variability was found to be highly correlated with total number of forest fire occurrences in Korea. The high FWI, forest fire occurrence risk, in Korea, is associated with warmer atmosphere temperature in midwest Eurasia-China-Korea peninsula, cyclonic circulation anomaly in northeastern China-Korea peninsula-northwest pacific, westerly wind anomaly in central China-Korea peninsula, and low humidity in Korea. These are further related with warmer sea surface temperature and enhanced outgoing longwave radiation over Western Pacific, which represents a typical condition for a La $Ni\tilde{n}a$ episode. This suggests that large-scale climate factors over East Asia and ENSO could have a significant influence on the occurrence of spring forest fires in Korea.

• Atmosphere
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.283-301
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• 2014

In 2010, only 14 tropical cyclones (TCs) were generated over the western North Pacific (WNP), which was the smallest since 1951. This study summarizes characteristics of TCs generated in 2010 over the WNP and investigates the causes of the record-breaking TC genesis. A long-term variation of TC activity in the WNP and verification of official track forecast in 2010 are also examined. Monthly tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly data reveal that El Ni$\tilde{n}$o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event in 2010 was shifted from El Ni$\tilde{n}$o to La Ni$\tilde{n}$a in June and the La Ni$\tilde{n}$a event was strong and continued to the end of the year. We found that these tropical environments leaded to unfavorable conditions for TC formation at main TC development area prior to May and at tropics east of $140^{\circ}E$ during summer mostly due to low SST, weak convection, and strong vertical wind shear in those areas. The similar ENSO event (in shifting time and La Ni$\tilde{n}$a intensity) also occurred in 1998, which was the second smallest TC genesis year (16 TCs) since 1951. The common point of the two years suggests that the ENSO episode shifting from El Ni$\tilde{n}$o to strong La Ni$\tilde{n}$a in summer leads to extremely low TC genesis during La Ni$\tilde{n}$a although more samples are needed for confidence. In 2010, three TCs, DIANMU (1004), KOMPASU (1007) and MALOU (1009), influenced the Korean Peninsula (KP) in spite of low total TC genesis. These TCs were all generated at high latitude above $20^{\circ}N$ and arrived over the KP in short time. Among them, KOMPASU (1007) brought the most serious damage to the KP due to strong wind. For 14 TCs in 2010, mean official track forecast error of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) for 48 hours was 215 km, which was the highest among other foreign agencies although the errors are generally decreasing for last 10 years, suggesting that more efforts are needed to improve the forecast skill.

• Atmosphere
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.277-290
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• 2017

Characteristics of precipitation in South Korea during the 2016 Changma period (6/18~7/30) are analyzed in great details. El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$-induced tropical Indian Ocean (IO) basin-wide warming lasts from spring to early summer and induces the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) circulation anomaly through an equatorial Kelvin wave during the 2016 Changma period. Along the northern edge of the WNPSH, strong precipitation occurred, in particular, over eastern China and southern Japan. During the Changma period, South Korea had the near-normal mean precipitation amount (~332 mm). However, about 226 mm of rain fell in South Korea during 1 July to 6 July, which amounts to 67% of total Changma precipitation in that year. Upper-level synoptic migratory lows and low-level moisture transport played an essential role, especially from 1 July to 3 July, in triggering an abrupt development of fronts over the Korean Peninsula and the eastern continent China. The front over the eastern China migrates progressively eastward, which results in heavy rainfall over the Korean peninsula from 1 to 3 July. In contrast, from 4 to 6 July, the typhoon (NEPARTAK) affected an abrupt northward advance of the North Pacific subtropical high (NPSH). The northward extension of the NPSH strengthens the Changma front and induces the southerly flows toward the Korean peninsula, giving rise to an increase in heavy rainfall. The NEPARTAK is generated due to interaction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), equatorial Rossby wave and Kelvin waves.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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• v.19 no.11
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• pp.2569-2575
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• 2015

Network RTK generally uses a linear interpolation method by using the corrections from reference stations. This minimizes the spatial decorrelation error caused by the increase of distance between the reference station's baseline and user's baseline. However, tropospheric delay, a function of the meteorological data can cause a spatial decorrelation characteristic among reference stations within a network by local meteorological difference. A non-linear characteristic of tropospheric delay can deteriorate Network RTK performance. In this paper, the modeling of tropospheric delay irregularity is made from the data when the typhoon is occurred. By using this modeling, analyzing the effect of meteorological difference between reference stations on correction is performed. Finally, we analyze an effect of non-linear characteristics of tropospheric delay among reference stations to Network RTK user.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.7 no.1
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• pp.31-39
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• 2016

In this study, the time series of the number of days with $25^{\circ}C$ or higher temperatures in the Jeju region were analyzed and they showed a strong trend of increase until recently. To determine the existence of a climate regime shift in this time series, the statistical change-point analysis was applied and it was found that the number of days with $25^{\circ}C$ or higher temperatures in the Jeju region increased sharply since 1993. Therefore, in order to examine the cause of the sharp increase of the days with $25^{\circ}C$ or higher temperatures in the Jeju region, the differences between the averages of 1994~2013 and the averages of 1974~1993 were analyzed for the large-scale environment. In the Korean Peninsula including the Jeju region, precipitable water and total cloud cover decreased recently due to the intensification of strong anomalous anticyclones near the Korean Peninsula in the top, middle and bottom layers of the troposphere. As a result of this, the number of days with $25^{\circ}C$ or higher temperatures in the Jeju region could increase sharply in recent years. Furthermore, in the analysis of sensible heat net flux and daily maximum temperatures at 2 m, which is the height that can be felt by people, the Korean Peninsula was included in the positive anomaly region. In addition, the frequency of typhoons affecting the Korean Peninsula decreased recently, which reduced the opportunities for air temperature drops in the Jeju region.

• Atmosphere
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.449-454
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• 2012

This study presents the long-term variability of spring precipitation over the Korean peninsula. It is found that the significant interdecadal change in the spring precipitation has occurred around year 1991. Over the Korean peninsula the precipitation for the post-1991 period increased by about 30 mm per year in CMAP and station-measured data compared to the precipitation prior to year 1991. Due to an increased baroclinicity during the later period, the low-level negative pressure anomaly has developed with its center over northern Japan. Korea is situated at the western end of the negative pressure anomaly, receiving moisture from westerly winds and producing more precipitation. Also, we estimate the change in the near future (years 2020~2040) spring precipitation using six best performing Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3 (CMIP3) models. These best model ensemble mean shows that spring precipitation is anticipated to increase by about 4% due to the strengthened westerlies accompanied by the northwestern enhancement of the North Pacific subtropical high.