• 대한토목학회논문집
• /
• 제28권5B호
• /
• pp.485-493
• /
• 2008

한반도 영역을 대상으로 RDAPS모형의 수치예보자료, AWS의 관측강수, 상층기상관측(upper-air sounding)의 관측자료를 이용하여 권역별 강수발생확률을 예측할 수 있는 인공신경망 모형을 제시하였다. 사용된 자료의 기간은 2001년 7, 8월과 2002년 6월로 홍수기를 대상으로 하였다. 500/750/1000 hPa에서의 지위고도, 500-1000 hPa에서의 층후(thickness), 500 hPa에서의 X와 Y방향 바람성분, 750 hPa에서의 X와 Y방향 바람성분, 표면풍속, 500/750 hPa/표면에서의 온도, 평균해면기압, 3시간 누적 강수, AWS관측소에서 관측된 RDAPS모형 실행전의 6시간과 12시간동안의 누적강수, 가강수량, 상대습도등을 신경망의 예측인자로 사용하였다. 신경망의 구조는 3층 MLP(Multi Layer Perceptron)로 구성하여 역전파알고리즘(Back-propagation)을 학습방법으로 사용하였다. 신경망예측결과 한반도전체에 대한 예측성과의 개선은 H가 6.8%상승하였고, 특히 TS와 POD는 각각 99.2%와 148.1% 상승함으로서 강수예측에 대한 신경망모형이 효과적인 도구가 될 수 있음을 확인하였다. KSS 역시 92.8% 개선됨으로서 RDAPS 예측에 비하여 뚜렷이 개선된 결과를 보여주고 있다.

• 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국신재생에너지학회 2010년도 추계학술대회 초록집
• /
• pp.181.1-181.1
• /
• 2010

기후변화의 주요인이 되는 온실가스 감축을 목표로 화석연료를 대체하기 위한 대체 에너지 개발을 위한 많은 노력이 진행되고 있다. 풍력 에너지와 같은 신재생에너지는 이러한 하나의 해결 수단이 될 수 있으며 풍력 에너지 사업의 활성화를 위해서는 정확한 풍력 정보 제공이 우선이다. 풍력-기상자원지도는 풍력 발전에 유용한 정보 제공을 위한 목적으로 중규모 수치 모델을 이용하여 작성된다. 본 연구에서는 중규모 수치 모델의 정확도 향상을 위한 자료동화 방법으로써 Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation (FDDA) 방법을 이용한다. 풍력-기상자원지도는 공간분해능 1 km 해상도로 개발된다. 풍력-기상자원지도는 1998-2008년까지의 평균적인 상태에 대하여 모의를 하기 위하여 통계적인 방법으로 11년 기간의 평균과 유사한 기간을 선정하였다. 풍력-기상자원지도는 연 평균, 월 평균 풍속과 주 풍향, 주풍향 발생 비율 등의 정보를 제공한다. 우리나라 풍속의 평균 분포는 내륙 산악지역, 남해안, 제주도에서 강풍이 발생하며 주 풍향은 대체로 북서풍이다. 주 풍향의 발생비율은 산악 지역과 남 동해안에서 높아 풍력 발전의 최적지 정보를 제공한다. 1 km 해상도의 모델과 관측의 오차는 서해안 등의 해안지역보다 강원 산악지역에서 오차가 더욱 증가하였다. 이러한 산악 지역의 오차는 복잡한 지형에서는 1km 미만의 수 백 m 해상도 수치모의가 필요함을 지시한다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 WRF-LES 모형을 이용하여 333m 해상도의 기상자원지도를 개발한다. 333m 해상도의 자원지도 영역은 강원도 지역에 대하여 모의되었다. 333m 해상도의 풍속 분포는 1km 해상도의 풍속 분포와 비교하였을 때 풍속의 분포가 보다 세밀하게 표현되었다. 정량적인 검증을 하였을 때 관측소에 따라 차이는 있었으나 1km 해상도에서 과대 모의된 풍속의 분포가 현저히 개선이 되었으며, 시간적인 경향도 잘 일치함을 보였다.

• 콘크리트학회논문집
• /
• 제18권1호
• /
• pp.37-46
• /
• 2006

재료구성관계의 범위에서의 강성 성능저하의 스펙트럼 특성을 기본 유한요소법을 이용하여 개별 유한요소와 그의 조합행렬에 대한 스펙트럼 분석을 상호 비교하여 수치적인 의미를 확인하고자 한다. 본 논문의 주 관심부분은 탄성 강성특성의 저하로 인한 콘크리트 재료의 손상정도를 다양한 스펙트럼 특성인 최소고유치의 변화, 유효계수의 변화 등의 시나리오를 가지고 해의 유일성 여부, 특이성의 표현 여부 그리고 변분유계와의 근접여부 등을 관찰하였다. 1차원 및 2차원 예제가 제시되었으며 강성이 서로 다른 혼입재를 가진 2상복합체의 형식으로 콘크리트의 골재, 매트릭스를 표현하고 상호연관성 및 기하학적 영향을 고려하였다. 더불어 2차원 탄성계면요소를 이용하여 골재와 매트릭스 사이에 존재하는 약한 고리인 계면을 묘사하고 이들 계면의 탄성계수의 성능저하로 인한 전체 구조계의 영향 등을 분석, 비교하였다.

• 한국대기환경학회지
• /
• 제25권3호
• /
• pp.196-210
• /
• 2009

The land surface precesses is very important to predict urban meteorological conditions. Thus, the latest land use data set to reflect the rapid progress in urbanization was applied to simulate urban thermal environment in Daegu. Because use of the U.S geological Survey (USGS) 25-category data, currently in the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5), does not accurately described the heterogeneity of urban surface, we replaced the land use data in USGS with the latest land-use data of the Korea Ministry of Environment over Daegu. The single urban category in existing 24-category U.S. Geological survey land cover classification used in MM5 was divided into 5 classes to account for heterogeneity of urban land cover. The new land cover classification (MC-LULC) improved the capability of MM5 to simulate the daytime part of the diurnal temperature cycle in the urban area. The 'MC-LULC' simulation produced the observed temperature field reasonably well, including spatial characteristics. The warm cores in western Daegu is characterized by an industrial area.

• 한국환경과학회지
• /
• 제25권7호
• /
• pp.1017-1028
• /
• 2016

Wind information is one of the major inputs for the prediction of urban air flow using computational fluid dynamic (CFD) models. Therefore, the numerical characteristics of the wind data formed at their mother domains should be clarified to predict the urban air flow more precisely. In this study, the formation characteristics of the wind data in the Seoul region were used as the inlet wind information for a CFD based simulation and were analyzed using numerical weather prediction models for weather research and forecasting (WRF). Because air flow over the central part of the Korean peninsula is often controlled not only by synoptic scale westerly winds but also by the westerly sea breeze induced from the Yellow Sea, the westerly wind often dominates the entire Seoul region. Although simulations of wind speed and air temperature gave results that were slightly high and low, respectively, their temporal variation patterns agreed well with the observations. In the analysis of the vertical cross section, the variation of wind speed along the western boundary of Seoul is simpler in a large domain with the highest horizontal resolution as compared to a small domain with the same resolution. A strong convergence of the sea breeze due to precise topography leads to the simplification of the wind pattern. The same tendency was shown in the average vertical profiles of the wind speed. The difference in the simulated wind pattern of two different domains is greater during the night than in the daytime because of atmospheric stability and topographically induced mesoscale forcing.

• 한국환경과학회지
• /
• 제16권8호
• /
• pp.921-928
• /
• 2007

The objective of this work is the air quality modeling according to the scenarios of emission on complex terrain. The prognostic meteorological fields and air quality field over complex areas of Seoul, Korea are generated by the PSU/NCAR mesoscale model (MM5) and the Third Generation Community Multi-scale Air Quality Modeling System (Models - 3/CMAQ), respectively. The emission source was driven from the Clean Air Policy Support System of the Korea National institute of Environmental Research (CAPSS), which is a 1 km x 1 km grid in South Korea during 2003. In comparison of air quality fields, the simulated averaged $PM_{10},\;NO_2,\;and\;O_3$ concentration on complex terrain in control case were decreased as compared with base case. Particularly $PM_{10}$ revealed most substantial localized differences by $(18{\sim}24{\mu}g/m^3)$. The reduction rate of $PM_{10},\;NO_2,\;and\;O_3$ is respectively 18.88, 13.34 and 4.17%.

• 대기
• /
• 제17권1호
• /
• pp.69-86
• /
• 2007

The characteristics of the dual-Doppler wind retrieval method based on a three dimensional variational (3DVAR) conception were investigated from the following four points of view; the sensitivity of the number of iteration, the effect of the weak constraint term, the effect of the smoothness term, and the sensitivity of the error mixing ratio of the radial velocities. In the experiment, the radial velocities relative to the Gosan and Jindo radar sites of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) were calculated from the forecasting of the WRF (Weather Research and Forecast; Skamarock, 2004) model at 1330 UTC 30 June 2006, which is the one and half hour forecast from the initial time, 1200 UTC on that day. The results showed that the retrieval performance of the horizontal wind field was robust, but that of the vertical wind was sensitive to the external conditions, such as iteration number and the on/off of the weak constraint term. The sensitivity of error mixing ratio was so large that even the horizontal wind retrieval efficiency was reduced a lot. But the sensitivity of the smooth term was not so large. When we applied this method to the real mesoscale convective system (MCS) between the Gosan and Jindo radar pair at 1430 UTC 30 June 2006, the wind structure of the convective cells in the MCS was consistently retrieved relative to the reflectivity factor structure. By comparing the vertical wind structure of this case with that of 10 minutes after, 1440 UTC 30 June 2006, we got the physical consistency of our method.

• 한국대기환경학회지
• /
• 제24권4호
• /
• pp.423-438
• /
• 2008

BEIS2 (Biogenic Emissions Inventory System version 2) and BEIS3.12 (BEIS version 3.12) were used to estimate hourly biogenic emissions over South Korea using a set of vegetation and meteorological data simulated with the MM5 (Mesoscale Model version 5). Two biogenic emission models utilized different emission factors and showed different responses to solar radiations, resulting in about $10{\sim}20%$ difference in the nationwide isoprene emission estimates. Among the 11-vegetation classes, it was found that mixed forest and deciduous forest are the most important vegetation classes producing isoprene emissions over South Korea comprising ${\sim}90%$ of the total. The simulated isoprene concentrations over Seoul metropolitan area show that diurnal and daily variations match relatively well with the PAMS (Photochemical Air Monitoring Station) measurements during the period of June 3${\sim}$June 10, 2004. Compared to BEIS2, BEIS3.12 yielded ${\sim}35%$ higher isoprene concentrations during daytime and presented better matches to the high peaks observed over the Seoul area. This study showed that the importance of vegetation data and emission factors to estimate biogenic emissions. Thus, it is expected to improve domestic vegetation categories and emission factors in order to better represent biogenic emissions over South Korea.

• 한국대기환경학회지
• /
• 제25권1호
• /
• pp.1-14
• /
• 2009

Wind energy has been recognized as one of the most important and fastest growing energy resources without emission of air pollutant. Thus, it is necessary to predict wind speed and direction accurately both in time and space toward the efficient usage of wind energy. Numerical simulation experiments using the Fifth-Generation Mesoscale Model (MM5) are carried out to clarify the impact of surface observation data assimilation on the estimation of wind energy resources. The EXP_Radius run was designed with respect to the radius of influence in the Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation (FDDA), and the EXP_Impact run was made by changing the nudging coefficient that determines the relative magnitude of the nudging term. The simulation period covers a clear-sky event on 3 - 5 June 2007 and another is on 2 - 4 December 2006. It is found that the simulated results are very sensitive to the radius of influence and nudging parameters in the FDDA. The further analysis of the results shows that the impact of the radius of influence tends to be stronger in weak synoptic flow episode than that in strong synoptic flows episode. The nudging factor is also sensitive to the intensity of the synoptic flows.

• 한국환경과학회지
• /
• 제15권5호
• /
• pp.417-430
• /
• 2006

We focused on improvement in simulation of wind fields for the complex coastal area. Local Analysis and Prediction System(LAPS) was used as a data assimilation method to improve initial conditions. Case studies of different LAPS inputs were performed to compare improvement of wind fields. Five cases have been employed : I) non data assimilation, II) all available data, III) AWS, buoy, QuikSCAT, IV) AWS, buoy, wind profiler, V) AWS, buoy, AMEDAS. Data assimilation can supplement insufficiency of the mesoscale model which does not represent detailed terrain effect and small scale atmospheric flow fields. Result assimilated all available data showed a good agreement to the observations rather than other cases and estimated veil the local meteorological characteristics including sea breeze and up-slope winds. Result using wind profiler data was the next best thing. This implies that data assimilation with many high-resolution sounding data could contribute to the improvements of good initial condition in the complex coastal area. As a result, these indicated that effective data assimilation process and application of the selective LAPS inputs played an important role in simulating wind fields accurately in a complex area.