• Title/Summary/Keyword: Mean Curve

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Estimation of growth curve parameters and analysis of year effect for body weight in Hanwoo (한우의 성장곡선의 모수추정과 연도별 효과 분석)

  • 조광현;나승환;최재관;서강석;김시동;박병호;이영창;박종대;손삼규
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.48 no.2
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    • pp.151-160
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    • 2006
  • This study was conducted to investigate the genetic characteristics of growth stages in Hanwoo, to provide useful information in farm management decisions. Data were taken from the nucleus herds of three farms, Namwon, Daegwalyong and Seosan, comprising 27,647 cows, 14,744 bulls, and 1,290 steers in between 1980 and 2004. According to the growth curve by year, the residuals for cows and bulls were 68.49 and 54.29, respectively, under the Gompertz model. The values were lower than in other years. Parameters, A, b and k were estimated as 423.6±5.8, 2.387±0.064 and 0.0908±0.0033 in cows and 823.3±15.3, 3.584±0.070, 0.1139±0.0032 in bulls, respectively. The fitness was higher under the Gompertz model than under the logistic model: monthly and daily estimation for cows were 379.3±7.509, 2.499±0.057, 0.114±0.0045 and 367.1±1.9003, 2.3983±0.012, 0.004±0.00003, respectively. Estimated residual mean squares were 31.85 and 998.4 in their respective models. Monthly and daily estimation of bulls were 834.6±22.00, 3.319±0.062, 0.104±0.0037 and 796.0±6.128, 3.184±0.014, 0.003±0.00003, respectively. Estimated residual mean square were 66.18 and 2106.5. Monthly and daily estimation of steers were 1049.1±144.2, 3.024±0.008, 0.067±0.0096 and 1505.1±176.6, 2.997±0.067, 0.001±0.0001, relatively. Squares, 186.0 and 1119.1. In terms of growth characteristic estimated by Gompertz model, body weight for cows and bulls were 139.53kg and 307.03kg, and the daily gains were 0.52kg and 1.04kg, respectively. Body weight for steers was 385.94kg at the inflection point. Body weight gain was 0.84kg in both models. Our results showed that cows had lower mature weight and daily weight gain, and reached the inflection point earlier than bulls or steers.

An Estimation of Flood Quantiles at Ungauged Locations by Index Flood Frequency Curves (지표홍수 빈도곡선의 개발에 의한 미 계측지점의 확률 홍수량 추정)

  • Yoon, Yong-Nam;Shin, Chang-Kun;Jang, Su-Hyung
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2005
  • The study shows the possible use of the index flood frequency curves for an estimation of flood quantiles at ungauged locations. Flood frequency analysis were made for the annual maximum flood data series at 9 available stations in the Han river basin. From the flood frquency curve at each station the mean annual flood of 2.33-year return period was determined and the ratios of the flood magnitude of various return period to the mean annual flood at each station were averaged throughout the Han river basin, resulting mean flood ratios of different return periods. A correlation analysis was made between the mean annual flood and physiographic parameters of the watersheds i.e, the watershed area and mean river channel slope, resulting an empirical multiple linear regression equation over the whole Han river basin. For unguaged watershed the flood of a specified return period could be estimated by multiplying the mead flood ratio corresponding the return period with the mean annual flood computed by the empirical formula developed in terms of the watershed area and river channel slope. To verify the applicability of the methodology developed in the present study the floods of various return periods determined for the watershed in the river channel improvement plan formulation by the Ministry of Construction and Transportation(MOCT) were compared with those estimated by the present method. The result proved a resonable agreement up to the watershed area of approximately 2,000k $m^2$. It is suggested that the practice of design flood estimation based on the rainfall-runoff analysis might have to be reevaluated because it involves too much uncertainties in the hydrologic data and rainfall-runoff model calibration.

Learning Curve of the Direct Anterior Approach for Hip Arthroplasty (직접전방 접근법을 통한 인공 고관절 치환술의 학습곡선)

  • Ham, Dong Hun;Chung, Woo Chull;Choi, Byeong Yeol;Choi, Jong Eun
    • Journal of the Korean Orthopaedic Association
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    • v.55 no.2
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    • pp.143-153
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    • 2020
  • Purpose: To evaluate the timing of the improvement in surgical skills of the direct anterior approach for hip arthroplasty through an analysis of the clinical features and learning curve in 58 cases. Materials and Methods: From November 2016 to November 2018, 58 patients, who were divided into an early half and late half, and underwent hip arthroplasty by the direct anterior approach, were enrolled in this retrospective study. The operation time and complications (fracture, lateral femoral cutaneous nerve injury, heterotopic ossification, infection, and dislocation) were assessed using a chi-square test, paired t-test, and cumulative sum (CUSUM) test. Results: The mean operation times in total hip arthroplasty (26 cases) and bipolar hemi-arthroplasty were 132.1 minutes and 79.7 minutes, respectively, demonstrating a significant difference between the two groups. CUSUM analysis based on the results revealed breakthrough points of the operation time, decreasing to less than the mean operation time because of the 16th case in total hip arthroplasty and 14th case in bipolar hemiarthroplasty. Complications were encountered in the early phase and late phase: five cases of fractures in the early phase, no case in the late phase; eight and two cases of lateral femoral cutaneous nerve injury, respectively; three and two cases of heterotopic ossification, respectively; and one case of dislocation, one case of infection and three cases of others in the early phase. The CUSUM chart for the fracture rate during operation in the early phase revealed the following: five cases fracture (17.2%) in the early phase and no case in the late phase (0%). This highlights the learning curve and the need for monitoring the inadequacy of operation based on the complications. Conclusion: Hip arthroplasty performed by the direct anterior approach based on an anatomical understanding makes it difficult to observe the surgical field and requires a learning curve of at least 30 cases.

Parameter Estimation of Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curve Using Genetic Algorithm (I): Comparison Study of Existing Estimation Method (유전자알고리즘을 이용한 강우강도식 매개변수 추정에 관한 연구(I): 기존 매개변수 추정방법과의 비교)

  • Kim, Tae-Son;Shin, Ju-Young;Kim, Soo-Young;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.40 no.10
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    • pp.811-821
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    • 2007
  • The intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves by Talbot, Sherman and Japanese type formulas are widely used in South Korea since the parameters are easily estimated. However, these IDF curves' accuracies are relatively worse than those of the IDF curves developed by Lee et al. (1993) and Heo et al. (1999), and different parameters for the given return periods should be computed. In this study, parameter estimation method for the IDF curve by Heo et al. (1999) is suggested using genetic algorithm (GA). Quantiles computed by at-site frequency analysis using the rainfall data of 22 rainfall gauges operated by Korea Meteorological Administration are employed to estimate the parameters of IDF curves and minimizing root mean squared error (RMSE) and relative RMSE (RRMSE) of observed and computed quantiles are used as objective functions of GA. The comparison of parameter estimation methods between the empirical regression analysis and the suggested method show that the IDF curve in which the parameters are estimated by GA using RRMSE as an objective function is superior to the IDF curves using RMSE.

An Objective Procedure to Decide the Scale Factors for Applying Land-form Classification Methodology Using TPI (TPI 응용에 의한 산악지형 분류기법의 적용을 위한 scale factor 선정방법 개발)

  • Jang, Kwangmin;Song, Jungeun;Park, Kyeung;Chung, Joosang
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.98 no.6
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    • pp.639-645
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    • 2009
  • The objective of this research was to introduce the TPI approach for interpreting land-forms of mountain forests in South Korea. We develop an objective procedure to decide the scale factor as a basic analytical unit in land-form classification of rugged mountain areas using TPI. In order to determine the scale factor associated with the pattern of slope profiles, the gradient variance curve was derived from a revised hypsometric curve developed using the relief energy of topographic profiles. Using the gradient variance curve, found was the grid size with which the change in relief energy got the peak point. The grid size at the peak point was determined as the scale factor for the study area. In order to investigate the performance of the procedure based on the gradient variance curve, it was applied to determination of the site-specific scale factors of 3 different terrain conditions; highly-rugged, moderately-rugged and relatively less-rugged. The TPI associated with the corresponding scale factors by study site was, then, determined and used in classifying the land-forms. According to the results of this study, the scale factor gets shorter with more rugged terrain conditions. It was also found that the numbers of valleys and ridges estimated with TPI show almost the same trends as those of the observed and the scale factors tends to approach to the mean distance of ridges.

Improving the Accuracy of Early Diagnosis of Thyroid Nodule Type Based on the SCAD Method

  • Shahraki, Hadi Raeisi;Pourahmad, Saeedeh;Paydar, Shahram;Azad, Mohsen
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.1861-1864
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    • 2016
  • Although early diagnosis of thyroid nodule type is very important, the diagnostic accuracy of standard tests is a challenging issue. We here aimed to find an optimal combination of factors to improve diagnostic accuracy for distinguishing malignant from benign thyroid nodules before surgery. In a prospective study from 2008 to 2012, 345 patients referred for thyroidectomy were enrolled. The sample size was split into a training set and testing set as a ratio of 7:3. The former was used for estimation and variable selection and obtaining a linear combination of factors. We utilized smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD) logistic regression to achieve the sparse optimal combination of factors. To evaluate the performance of the estimated model in the testing set, a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was utilized. The mean age of the examined patients (66 male and 279 female) was $40.9{\pm}13.4years$ (range 15- 90 years). Some 54.8% of the patients (24.3% male and 75.7% female) had benign and 45.2% (14% male and 86% female) malignant thyroid nodules. In addition to maximum diameters of nodules and lobes, their volumes were considered as related factors for malignancy prediction (a total of 16 factors). However, the SCAD method estimated the coefficients of 8 factors to be zero and eliminated them from the model. Hence a sparse model which combined the effects of 8 factors to distinguish malignant from benign thyroid nodules was generated. An optimal cut off point of the ROC curve for our estimated model was obtained (p=0.44) and the area under the curve (AUC) was equal to 77% (95% CI: 68%-85%). Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive values for this model were 70%, 72%, 71% and 76%, respectively. An increase of 10 percent and a greater accuracy rate in early diagnosis of thyroid nodule type by statistical methods (SCAD and ANN methods) compared with the results of FNA testing revealed that the statistical modeling methods are helpful in disease diagnosis. In addition, the factor ranking offered by these methods is valuable in the clinical context.

Study on the Characteristics of Height Growth by PHV Age -Using longitudinal data of age 7 to 18- (PHV 연령별 신장 발육의 특징에 관한 연구 -7~18세의 종단적 자료를 이용하여-)

  • Park, Ju-Mi;Kim, Myung
    • Korean Journal of Health Education and Promotion
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.74-86
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    • 1991
  • This study tried to clear the characteristics of height growth pattern depending on Peak Height Velocity age in early, average and late groups. And in it, height growth tendency of girl students in age 7 to 18 years old was compared and investigated in order to know influencing factors, menarcheal age relation. The samples were senior girl students at high school in Seoul. Longitudinal data and survey data were collected in August, 1990. The results could be summarized as follows: 1. On distance curve, the height growth line in early group tended to be the highest and in late group the lowest. On the other hand, on velocity curve late group showed the highest peak and early group showed the lowest peak. In late group, velocity curve was too steep. Of course, these early, average and late groups were classified by PHV age. 2. In these three groups, late group showed the most growth amount per year. However, on distance curve, early group showed higher line than late group. Perhaps this means that peak growth amount in late group might have an effect on mean. 3. Growth amount of adolescence spurt age in these three groups was 6.86cm at age 9(early group), 7.27cm at l1(average group) and 7.65cm at 13(late group). In early group, because. PHV age came too early, it was difficult to find exact adolescence spurt period. In early group, the adolescence spurt period is considered to come at about age 7 to 9. In average group, at 9 to 11 and at 12 to 13 in late group. Especially, spurt of late group was remarkable. 4. When the growth amount of PA, before PA and after PA was compared, growth amount of PA in all three groups was about 20%. In early group, growth amount of APV tended to be large and in late group, that of APV tended to be large and in late group, that of BPV was large. In average group, growth amount of BPV was larger than that of APV. 5. For the purpose of comparing total height growth amount of these groups at age 18, the height growth was assumed to be over. And then, the difference of three groups was studied but it's not significant. 6. Although the difference between height growth and family environment, dietary habits, exercise, disease history in these three groups was investigated, only the income was significant. The significance of all the other factors was not approved. 7. When menarcheal age was compared with PA, generally we know menarche appeared after 1∼2 years of PHV age. But in case of early group, the difference between PHV age and menarcheal age was 5.34 years. In average group, 2.45 years and 0.82 years in late group.

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EVALUATION MODEL OF GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT IN PEDIATRIC DENTISTRY (한국인 소아의 성장 발육 평가 자료 제작에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Young-Jae;Lee, Shin-Jae;Kim, Jung-Wook;Jang, Ki-Taeg;Lee, Sang-Hoon;Hahn, Se-Hyun;Kim, Chong-Chul
    • Journal of the korean academy of Pediatric Dentistry
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.173-180
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    • 2006
  • Knowledge of growth and development is essential for pediatric dentistry treating growing patients. The data from the pediatric growth curve being used today does not reflect the growth transition of modern times, nor does it match the age range required for dental purposes. The present study, therefore, aims to introduce the process of producing a growth curve and growth rate curve based on data which represents a more accurate description of the present situation. The original data used in this study were from the 5th nationwide survey, SIZE KOREA 2004 study carried out by the Technology and Standards Policy Division, Department of Technology and Standards Planning, Ministry of Commerce, Industry. and Energy. Processing and rearranging the produced data with variations divided into the three quartiles and the 1st, 5th, 95th and 99th percentiles were included to produce a growth observation chart according to sex, height and weight differences. In the same way, a growth rate curve based on the geometric mean value was produced. The resulting growth charts can be used as an index for growth and development, and used for better communication between the pediatric dentist, patients or their parents.

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Estimate of Wave Overtopping Rate on Vertical Wall Using FUNWAVE-TVD Model (FUNWAVE-TVD 모델을 이용한 직립구조물의 월파량 산정)

  • Kwak, Moon Su;Kobayashi, Nobuhisa
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.257-264
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    • 2021
  • This study established a numerical model capable of calculating the wave overtopping rate of coastal structures by nonlinear irregular waves using the FUNWAVE-TVD model, a fully nonlinear Boussinesq equation model. Here, a numerical model was established by coding the mean value approach equations of EurOtop (2018) and empirical formula by Goda (2009), and adding them as subroutines of the FUNWAVE-TVD model. The verification of the model was performed by numerically calculating the wave overtopping rate of nonlinear irregular waves on vertical wall structures and comparing them with the experimental results presented in EurOtop (2018). As a result of the verification, the numerical calculation result according to the EurOtop equation of this model was very well matched with the experimental result in all relative freeboard (Rc/Hmo) range under non-impulsive wave conditions, and the numerical calculation result of empirical formula was evaluated slightly smaller than the experimental result in Rc/Hmo < 0.8 and slightly larger than the experimental result in Rc/Hmo > 0.8. The results of this model were well represented in both the exponential curve and the power curve under impulsive wave conditions. Therefore, it was confirmed that this numerical model can simulate the wave overtopping rate caused by nonlinear irregular waves in an vertical wall structure.

Assessing the resilience of urban water management to climate change

  • James A. Griffiths
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2023.05a
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    • pp.32-32
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    • 2023
  • Incidences of urban flood and extreme heat waves (due to the urban heat island effect) are expected to increase in New Zealand under future climate change (IPCC 2022; MfE 2020). Increasingly, the mitigation of such events will depend on the resilience of a range Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) used in Sustainable Urban Drainage Schemes (SUDS), or Water Sensitive Urban Design (WSUD) (Jamei and Tapper 2019; Johnson et al 2021). Understanding the impact of changing precipitation and temperature regimes due climate change is therefore critical to the long-term resilience of such urban infrastructure and design. Cuthbert et al (2022) have assessed the trade-offs between the water retention and cooling benefits of different urban greening methods (such as WSUD) relative to global location and climate. Using the Budyko water-energy balance framework (Budyko 1974), they demonstrated that the potential for water infiltration and storage (thus flood mitigation) was greater where potential evaporation is high relative to precipitation. Similarly, they found that the potential for mitigation of drought conditions was greater in cooler environments. Subsequently, Jaramillo et al. (2022) have illustrated the locations worldwide that will deviate from their current Budyko curve characteristic under climate change scenarios, as the relationship between actual evapotranspiration (AET) and potential evapotranspiration (PET) changes relative to precipitation. Using the above approach we assess the impact of future climate change on the urban water-energy balance in three contrasting New Zealand cities (Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch and Invercargill). The variation in Budyko curve characteristics is then used to describe expected changes in water storage and cooling potential in each urban area as a result of climate change. The implications of the results are then considered with respect to existing WSUD guidelines according to both the current and future climate in each location. It was concluded that calculation of Budyko curve deviation due to climate change could be calculated for any location and land-use type combination in New Zealand and could therefore be used to advance the general understanding of climate change impacts. Moreover, the approach could be used to better define the concept of urban infrastructure resilience and contribute to a better understanding of Budyko curve dynamics under climate change (questions raised by Berghuijs et al 2020)). Whilst this knowledge will assist in implementation of national climate change adaptation (MfE, 2022; UNEP, 2022) and improve climate resilience in urban areas in New Zealand, the approach could be repeated for any global location for which present and future mean precipitation and temperature conditions are known.

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