This study aims to offer basic data to effectively preserve and manage pine forests using more precise pine forests' distribution status. In this regard, this study predicts the geographical distribution change of pine forests growing in South Korea, due to climate change, and evaluates the spatial distribution characteristics of pine forests by age. To this end, this study predicts the potential distribution change of pine forests by applying the MaxEnt model useful for species distribution change to the present and future climate change scenarios, and analyzes the effects of bioclimatic variables on the distribution area and change by age. Concerning the potential distribution regions of pine forests, the pine forests, aged 10 to 30 years in South Korea, relatively decreased more. As the area of the region suitable for pine forest by age was bigger, the decreased regions tend to become bigger, and the expanded regions tend to become smaller. Such phenomena is conjectured to be derived from changing of the interaction of pine forests by age from mutual promotional relations to competitive relations in the similar climate environment, while the regions suitable for pine forests' growth are mostly overlap regions. This study has found that precipitation affects more on the distribution of pine forests, compared to temperature change, and that pine trees' geographical distribution change is more affected by climate's extremities including precipitation of driest season and temperature of the coldest season than average climate characteristics. Especially, the effects of precipitation during the driest season on the distribution change of pine forests are irrelevant of pine forest's age class. Such results are expected to result in a reduction of the pine forest as the regions with the increase of moisture deficiency, where climate environment influencing growth and physiological responses related with drought is shaped, gradually increase according to future temperature rise. The findings in this study can be applied as a useful method for the prediction of geographical change according to climate change by using various biological resources information already accumulated. In addition, those findings are expected to be utilized as basic data for the establishment of climate change adaptation policies related to forest vegetation preservation in the natural ecosystem field.
This study was aimed at looking into the distribution status and age structure of Abies holophylla population in Sudo-Am temple forest. It was found that a total of 302 individuals of Abies holophylla existed which were more than 2m in height within the study area. Furthermore the population size is one of the largest in the southern region of Korea. The CBH of Abies holophylla ranged from 1.5 cm to 500.8 cm. Age structure of Abies holophylla looks like a gourd-shaped bottle. This means that they have an unstable structure status and do not survive very long. This status results from a variety of factors including, vegetation succession, anthropogenic activities, and global warming. The environmental characteristics of Abies holophylla population was $931{\pm}64.5m$ in mean altitude, $19.2{\pm}8.7^{\circ}$ in mean slope in the northeastern and southeastern area of the slope direction, and $1,324,323{\pm}174,459wh\;m^{-2}$ in average of direct normal irradiation. Among the site environmental factors, the significant ones which influence the potential habitat for Abies holophylla distribution were chosen using the MaxEnt model. According to the results of this study, altitude and slope were found as the important factors. The average value of environmental conditions by ROC analysis were altitude 903.2 m, slope $20.04^{\circ}$, irradiation $1,352.248wh\;m^{-2}$, and the southeastern aspect.
This research aims at identifying the goshawk's possible and replaceable breeding ground by using the MaxEnt prediction model which has so far been insufficiently used in Korea, and providing evidence to expand possible protection areas for the goshawk's breeding for the future. The field research identified 10 goshawk's nests, and 23 appearance points confirmed during the 3rd round of environmental research were used for analysis. 4 geomorphic, 3 environmental, 7 distance, and 9 weather factors were used as model variables. The final environmental variables were selected through non-parametric verification between appearance and non-appearance coordinates identified by random sampling. The final predictive model (MaxEnt) was structured using 10 factors related to breeding ground and 7 factors related to appearance area selected by statistics verification. According to the results of the study, the factor that affected breeding point structure model the most was temperature seasonality, followed by distance from mixforest, density-class on the forest map and relief energy. The factor that affected appearance point structure model the most was temperature seasonality, followed by distance from rivers and ponds, distance from agricultural land and gradient. The nature of the goshawk's breeding environment and habit to breed inside forests were reflected in this modeling that targets breeding points. The northern central area which is about $189.5 km^2$(2.55 %) is expected to be suitable breeding ground. Large cities such as Cheongju and Chungju are located in the southern part of Chungcheongbuk-do whereas the northern part of Chungcheongbuk-do has evenly distributed forests and farmlands, which helps goshawks have a scope of influence and food source to breed. Appearance point modeling predicted an area of $3,071 km^2$(41.38 %) showing a wider ranging habitat than that of the breeding point modeling due to some limitations such as limited moving observation and non-consideration of seasonal changes. When targeting the breeding points, a specific predictive area can be deduced but it is difficult to check the points of nests and it is impossible to reflect the goshawk's behavioral area. On the other hand, when targeting appearance points, a wider ranging area can be covered but it is less accurate compared to predictive breeding point since simple movements and constant use status are not reflected. However, with these results, the goshawk's habitat can be predicted with reasonable accuracy. In particular, it is necessary to apply precise predictive breeding area data based on habitat modeling results when enforcing an environmental evaluation or establishing a development plan.
An, Jong-Bin;Sung, Chan Yong;Moon, Ae-Ra;Kim, Sodam;Jung, Ji-Young;Son, Sungwon;Shin, Hyun-Tak;Park, Wan-Geun
Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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v.35
no.2
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pp.154-163
/
2021
This study was carried out to present the habitat distribution status and the habitat distribution prediction of Sophora koreensis, which is the Korean Endemic Plant included in the EN (Endangered) class of the IUCN Red List. The habit distribution survey of Sophora koreensis confirmed 19 habitats in Gangwon Province, including 13 habitats in Yanggu-gun, 3 habitats in Inje-gun, 2 habitats in Chuncheon-si, and 1 habitat in Hongcheon-gun. The northernmost habitat of Sophora koreensis in Korea was in Imdang-ri, Yanggu-gun; the easternmost habitat in Hangye-ri, Inje-gun; the westernmost habitat in Jinae-ri, Chuncheon-si; and the southernmost habitat in Sungdong-ri, Hongcheon-gun. The altitude of the Sophora koreensis habitats ranged from 169 to 711 m, with an average altitude of 375m. The area of the habitats was 8,000-734,000 m2, with an average area of 202,789 m2. Most habitats were the managed forests, such as thinning and pruning forests. The MaxEnt program analysis for the potential habitat of Sophora koreensis showed the AUC value of 0.9762. The predictive habitat distribution was Yanggu-gun, Inje-gun, Hwacheon-gun, and Chuncheon-si in Gangwon Province. The variables that influence the prediction of the habitat distribution were the annual precipitation, soil carbon content, and maximum monthly temperature. This study confirmed that habitats of Sophora koreensis were mostly found in the ridge area with rich light intensity. They can be used as basic data for the designation of protected areas of Sophora koreensis habitat.
Hyeong Ju Seok;Chang Hun Lee;Choul-Hee Hwang;Young Ryun Kim;Daesun Kim;Moon Suk Lee
Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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v.29
no.7
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pp.802-811
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2023
Marine spatial planning (MSP) is a crucial element for rational allocation and sustainable use of marine areas. Particularly, Fishing Activity Protected Areas constitute essential zones accounting for 45.6% designated for sustainable fishing activities. However, the current assessment of these zones does not adequately consider future demands and potential values, necessitating appropriate evaluation methods and predictive tools for long-term planning. In this study, we selected key fish species (Scomber japonicus, Trichiurus lepturus, Engraulis japonicus, and Larimichthys polyactis) within the Fishing Activity Protected Area to predict their distribution and compare it with the current designated zones for evaluating the ability of the prediction tool. Employing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 6th Assessment Report scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5), we used species distribution models (such as MaxEnt) to assess the movement and distribution changes of these species owing to future variations. The results indicated a 30-50% increase in the distribution area of S. japonicus, T. lepturus, and L. polyactis, whereas the distribution area of E. japonicus decreased by approximately 6-11%. Based on these results, a species richness map for the four key species was created. Within the marine spatial planning boundaries, the overlap between areas rated "high" in species richness and the Fishing Activity Protected Area was approximately 15%, increasing to 21% under the RCP 2.6 scenario and 34% under the RCP 8.5 scenario. These findings can serve as scientific evidence for future evaluations of use zones or changes in reserve areas. The current and predicted distributions of species owing to climate change can address the limitations of current use zone evaluations and contribute to the development of plans for sustainable and beneficial use of marine resources.
Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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v.19
no.3
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pp.102-113
/
2016
This study analyzes the geographic information system (GIS) and machine learning models to understand the relationship between the appearance of hibernation sites and habitats in order to systematically manage the habitat of Asiatic Black Bear(Ursus thibetanus ussuricus) inhabiting Jirisan National Park, South Korea. The most important environmental factors influencing the hibernation sites was found to be the inclination(41.4%), followed by altitude(20.4%), distance from the trail(10.9%), and age group(7.7%) in the order of their contribution. A comparison between the hibernation habitat and the normal habitat of Asiatic Black Bear indicated that the average altitude of the hibernation sites was 63m, whereas the average altitude of the normal habitat was approximately 400m. The average inclination was found to be $7^{\circ}$, and a preference for the steeper inclination of $12-43^{\circ}$ was also observed. The average distance of the hibernation site from the road was approximately 300m; the range of separation distance was found to be 1,300-2,400m. This was thought to be the result of a safer selection of winter hibernation site by preventing human contact and outside invasion. This study analyzes the habitat environmental factors for the selection of hibernation sites that prevent severe cold and other threats during the hibernation period in order to provide fundamental data for hibernation ecology and habitat management of Asiatic Black Bear.
Kim, Dae-In;Park, Il-Kook;Bae, So-Yeon;Fong, Jonathan J.;Zhang, Yong-Pu;Li, Shu-Ran;Ota, Hidetoshi;Kim, Jong-Sun;Park, Daesik
Journal of Ecology and Environment
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v.44
no.1
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pp.33-40
/
2020
Background: Understanding the geographical distribution of a species is a key component of studying its ecology, evolution, and conservation. Although Schlegel's Japanese gecko (Gekko japonicus) is widely distributed in Northeast Asia, its distribution has not been studied in detail. We predicted the present and future distribution of G. japonicus across China, Japan, and Korea based on 19 climatic and 5 environmental variables using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) species distribution model. Results: Present time major suitable habitats for G. japonicus, having greater than 0.55 probability of presence (threshold based on the average predicted probability of the presence records), are located at coastal and inland cities of China; western, southern, and northern coasts of Kyushu and Honshu in Japan; and southern coastal cities of Korea. Japan contained 69.3% of the suitable habitats, followed by China (27.1%) and Korea (4.2%). Temperature seasonality (66.5% of permutation importance) was the most important predictor of the distribution. Future distributions according to two climate change scenarios predicted that by 2070, and overall suitable habitats would decrease compared to the present habitats by 18.4% (scenario RCP 4.5) and 10.4% (scenario RCP 8.5). In contrast to these overall trends, range expansions are expected in inland areas of China and southern parts of Korea. Conclusions: Suitable habitats predicted for G. japonicus are currently located in coastal cities of Japan, China, and Korea, as well as in isolated patches of inland China. Due to climate change, suitable habitats are expected to shrink along coastlines, particularly at the coastal-edge of climate change zones. Overall, our results provide essential distribution range information for future ecological studies of G. japonicus across its distribution range.
Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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v.24
no.6
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pp.35-48
/
2021
In Suwon, the overall hygiene of the city is threatened by the emergence of the rook(Corvus fugilegus) in the city. Rooks began to appear in November of 2016 and has continued to appear from November to March every year. In order to eradicate or to prepare an alternative habitat for rooks, this study aimed to identify the preferred habitat and specific environmental variables. Therefore, in this work, we aim to understand the predicted distribution of rooks in Suwon City with citizen science and through MaxENT, the most widely utilized habitat modeling using citizen science to analyze the preferred habitat of harmful tides appearing in urban areas. In this study, seven environmental variables were chosen: biotope group complex, building floor, vegetation, euclidean distance from farmland, euclidean distance from streetlamp, and euclidean distance from pole and DEM. Among the estimated models, after the time period of sunrise (08:00~18:00) the contribution percentage were as following: euclidean distance from arable land(39.2%), DEM(25.5%), euclidean distance from streetlamp(22.3%), euclidean distance from pole(7.1%), biotope group complex(4.9%), building floor(1%), vegetation(0%). In the time period after sunset(18:00~08:00) the contribution percentage were as following: biotope group complex(437.4%), euclidean distance from pole(26.8%), DEM(13.4%), euclidean distance from streetlamp(11.8%), euclidean distance from farmland(7.9%), building floor(1.4%), vegetation(1.3%).
Dong-Joo Kim;Yong Sung Kwon;Na-Yeon Han;Do-Hun Lee
Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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v.41
no.4
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pp.413-426
/
2023
Species distribution model (SDM) is used to preserve biodiversity and climate change impact. To evaluate biodiversity, various studies are being conducted to utilize and apply SDM. However, there is insufficient research to provide useful information by identifying the current status and recent trends of SDM research and discussing implications for future research. This study analyzed the trends and flow of academic papers, in the use of SDM, published in academic journals in South Korea and provides basic information that can be used for related research in the future. The current state and trends of SDM research were presented using philological methods and text-mining. The papers on SDM have been published 148 times between 1998 and 2023 with 115 (77.7%) papers published since 2015. MaxEnt model was the most widely used, and plant was the main target species. Most of the publications were related to species distribution and evaluation, and climate change. In text mining, the term 'Climate change' emerged as the most frequent keyword and most studies seem to consider biodiversity changes caused by climate change as a topic. In the future, the use of SDM requires several considerations such as selecting the models that are most suitable for various conditions, ensemble models, development of quantitative input variables, and improving the collection system of field survey data. Promoting these methods could help SDM serve as valuable scientific tools for addressing national policy issues like biodiversity conservation and climate change.
A reliability analysis method is proposed in this paper based on the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) principle in which constraints are specified in terms of the fractional moments instead of integer moments. Then a multiplicative dimensional reduction method (M-DRM) is introduced to compute the fractional moments. The method is applicable for both explicit and implicit limit state functions of complex structures. After two examples illustrate the accuracy and efficiency of this method in comparison to the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS), the method is used to analyze the flutter reliability of suspension bridge. The results show that the empirical formula method in which the limit state function is explicitly represented as a function of variables is only a too conservative estimate for flutter reliability analysis but is not accurate adequately. So it is not suitable for reliability analysis of bridge flutter. The actual flutter reliability analysis should be conducted based on a finite element method in which limit state function is implicitly represented as a function of variables. The proposed M-DRM provide an alternate and efficient way to analyze a much more complicated flutter reliability of long span suspension bridge.
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