• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2019.05a
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• pp.390-390
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• 2019

Application of Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to the hydrological time series would be an innovative way to identify extreme rainfall events in a series. Even though the optimum number of hidden states can be identify based on maximizing the log-likelihood or minimizing Bayesian information criterion. However, occasionally value for the log-likelihood keep increasing with the state which gives false identification of the optimum hidden state. Therefore, this study attempts to identify optimum number of hidden states for Colombo station, Sri Lanka as fundamental approach to identify frequency and percentage of extreme rainfall events for the station. Colombo station consisted of daily rainfall values between 1961 and 2015. The representative station is located at the wet zone of Sri Lanka where the major rainfall season falls on May to September. Therefore, HMM was ran for the season of May to September between 1961 and 2015. Results showed more or less similar log-likelihood which could be identified as maximum for states between 4 to 7. Therefore, measure of central tendency (i.e. mean, median, mode, standard deviation, variance and auto-correlation) for observed and simulated daily rainfall series was carried to each state to identify optimum state which could give statistically compatible results. Further, the method was applied for the second major rainfall season (i.e. October to February) for the same station as a comparison.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.62-77
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• 1976

One of the most important tasks of planned forest management is the determination of the allowable cut. There are therefore many methods of forest regulation which have been applied by the various administrations of Germany, France, and other countries. However, most of the older methods of forest regulation have little or no application in Europe. In this paper, a new method of forest regulation is introduced. It has been developed mainly by Dr. T. Suzuki who is a prefessor of Nagoya University. It is felt that the material covered in this paper is appropriate for use in forest management courses at the senior or first-year-graduate level.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.687-698
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• 1997

In this paper, a Variation of Blast with Go-Back-N(V-BGBN) protocol is proposed, which differs from Blast with Go-Back-N(BGBN) and Blast with Full Retransmission on Error(BFRE) protocols in the retransmission strategy of packets. Performances of these three protocols under correlated packet errors are analyzed. Throughput efficiency of an arbitrary packet is obtained under the assumption that the round trip delay and the packet length are respectively constant. Recursive formula and difference equations are used as analytical tools. Correlation of packet errors is modelled by a two state Markov chain. The throughput efficiencies under these protocols are compared. V-BGBN protocol is shown to be superior to other two protocols in high speed network.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.97-109
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• 1998

In this paper, we propose a new approach to solve stochastic fluid flow models applied to the analysis of ceil loss of an ATM multiplexer. Existing stochastic fluid flow models have been analyzed by using linear differential equations. In case of large state space, however. analyzing stochastic fluid flow model without numerical errors is not easy. To avoid this numerical errors and to analyze stochastic fluid flow model with large state space. we develope a new computational algorithm. Instead of solving differential equations directly, this approach uses iterative and numerical method without calculating eigenvalues. eigenvectors and boundary coefficients. As a result, approximate solutions and upper and lower bounds are obtained. This approach can be applied to stochastic fluid flow model having general Markov chain structure as well as to the superposition of heterogeneous ON-OFF sources it can be extended to Markov process having non-exponential sojourn times.

• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 1995.09a
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• pp.99-107
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• 1995

The Phase-type(PH) distribution, defined as a distribution of the time until the absorption in a finite continuous-time Markov chain state with one absorbing state, has been widely used for various stochastic modelling. But great computational burdens often make us hesitate to apply PH methods. In this paper, we propose a seemingly efficient approximation method for phase type distributions. We first describe methods to bound the first passage time distribution in continuous-time Markov chains. Next, we adapt these bounding methods to approximate phase-tupe distributions. Numerical computation results are given to verify their efficiency.

• Bulletin of the Korean Mathematical Society
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• v.43 no.3
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• pp.657-669
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• 2006

In this paper, we analyze a leaky bucket (LB) scheme with queue length dependent arrival rates. In other words, if the queue length exceeds an appropriate threshold value on buffer, the arrivals need to be controlled. In ATM networks, if the congestion occurs, the input traffics must be controlled (reduced) for congestion resolution. By the bursty and correlated properties of traffics, the arrivals are assumed to follow a Markov-modulated Poisson process (MMPP). We derive the loss probability and the waiting time distribution for arbitrary cell. The analysis is done by using the embedded Markov chain and supplementary variable method. We also present some numerical examples to show the effects of our proposed LB scheme.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2005.07a
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• pp.226-228
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• 2005

This paper deals with power system stabilization problem using a network control system in which the control is applied through a communication channel in feedback form. Analysis and synthesis issues are investigated by modeling the packet delivery characteristics of the network as a Bernoulli random variable, which is described by a two state Markov chain. This model assumption yields an overall system which is described by a discrete-time Markov jump linear system. These employ the norm to measure the performance of the system, and they compute the norm via a necessary and sufficient matrix inequality condition.

• ETRI Journal
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.13-25
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• 1997

In this paper, we propose a new queuing model, MMDP/MMDP/1/K, for an asynchronous transfer mode(ATM) multiplexer with multiple quality of service(QoS) variable bit rate (VBR) traffic in broadband-integrated services digital network (B-ISDN). We use the Markov Modulated Deterministic Process(MMDP) to approximate the actual arrival process and another MMDP for service process Using queuing analysis, we derive a formula for the cell loss probability of the ATM multiplexer in terms of the limiting probabilities of a Markov chain. The cell loss probability can be used for connection admission control in ATM multiplexer and the calculation of equivalent bandwidth for arrival traffic, The major advantages of this approach are simplicity in analysis, accuracy of analysis by comparison of simulation, and numerical stability.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.52 no.3
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• pp.560-567
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• 2020

The complexity of safety critical systems of Nuclear Power Plant continues to increase rapidly due its transition from analog to digital systems. It has thus become progressively more imperative to model these systems prior to their implementation in order to meet the high performance, safety and reliability requirements. Timed Petri Nets (TPNs) have been widely used to model such systems for non-functional analysis. The paper presents a novel methodology for the analysis of the performance metrics using PN modeling. The paper uses the isomorphism property of the TPNs and the Markov chains for the performance analysis of the safety critical systems. The presented methodology has been validated on a Shutdown System of a Nuclear Power Plant.

• Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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• v.22 no.1_2
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• pp.523-533
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• 2006

We analyze two finite buffers queueing system with priority scheduling dependent upon queue length. Customers are classified into two types ( type-l and type-2 ) according to their characteristics. Here, the customers can be considered as traffics such as voice and data in telecommunication networks. In order to support customers with characteristics of burstiness and time-correlation between interarrival, the arrival of the type-2 customer is assumed to be an Markov- modulated Poisson process(MMPP). The service order of customers in each buffer is determined by the queue length of two buffers. Methods of embedded Markov chain and supplementary variable give us information for queue length of two buffers. Finally, performance measures such as loss and mean delay are derived.