• Title/Summary/Keyword: Market Risk

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MODELLING OF THE RISKS FACED BY INDIAN CONSTRUCTION COMPANIES ASSESSING INTERNATIONAL OPPORTUNITIES

  • M.N. Devaya;N.K. Jha
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2007.03a
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    • pp.140-149
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    • 2007
  • Indian construction companies have only 0.05% market share in the 3-4 trillion dollar global construction business and only two Indian construction companies figure in the ENR "Top 225 Global Contractors 2006" list. Hence, while enormous scope for growth exists, international construction experience is limited. This study explores the risks as perceived by Indian companies venturing abroad since risks in international construction differ from home market risks. Literature survey identified a number of risk factors that were evaluated by the experts, highlighting fourteen important risk factors. Interpretive Structural Modelling (ISM) was used to develop a hierarchical model showing the relationships between the different risk factors, thus helping to focus on the key risks for effective risk management. The study shows that poor project management is a key risk forming the hub of the system, while political instability has maximum influence. The results of the study can be used by managers to visualise the risks in perspective and prioritise the mitigation effort.

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Effect of Risk Factors on the Management of Working Capital in Hospital Management (병원경영의 위험요인이 운전자본 관리에 미치는 영향)

  • Ha, Au-Hyun
    • Journal of Convergence for Information Technology
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    • v.10 no.8
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    • pp.187-193
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    • 2020
  • This study analyzed how risk factors in management affect the management of working capital in general hospitals in Korea. The data used accounting information for three years (2016~2017 and 2018) of 271 general hospitals using the medical institution accounting information disclosure system. The independent variables were the working capital level and the cash conversion cycle, The dependent variables were operational risk and market risk, Control variables were selected as components of working capital(cash, accounts receivable, inventory assets, accounts payable). According to the study, the lower the operational risk, the higher the level of working capital hospitals in Korea. Working capital decisions were confirmed to be attributable to operating risks, cash, inventory assets and accounts payable. And the lower the market risk (Operating Margin), the higher the cash conversion cycle. Therefore, it is necessary to review appropriate management measures of operational risks, cash, inventory assets and accounts payable identified as operating capital determinants so that medical institutions can also have economic response capabilities in consideration of the specificity of their operations.

The Policy Impact of Renewable Energy Subsidies on Solar PV: The Case of Renewable Portfolio Standard in Korea (국내 태양광 발전 보조금 제도의 정책 효과: 공급의무화제도 사례를 중심으로)

  • Kwon, Tae-Hyeong
    • Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.59-69
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    • 2017
  • In 2012, Korea introduced a Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) scheme, replacing the Feed-in Tariff (FIT) scheme as a market support policy of renewable energy in the electricity market. RPS is to allocate obligatory quota of renewable energy sources for electricity suppliers, whereas FIT is to guarantee high prices for electricity from renewable energy sources. This study examines the effect of this policy change on solar photovoltaic market. According to the study, solar PV market grew fast under FIT as well as under RPS. However, under RPS the size of subsidy for solar PV suppliers was shrunk substantially. In addition, market risk increased severly under RPS due to the volatility of price of renewable energy certificate (REC) as well as of the electricity market price. The small and medium suppliers of solar PV were suffered the most severly from these policy effects. Therefore, the policy reform of RPS is needed to alleviate the market risk of small and medium suppliers of solar PV.

Capital Market Volatility MGARCH Analysis: Evidence from Southeast Asia

  • RUSMITA, Sylva Alif;RANI, Lina Nugraha;SWASTIKA, Putri;ZULAIKHA, Siti
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.11
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    • pp.117-126
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    • 2020
  • This paper is aimed to explore the co-movement capital market in Southeast Asia and analysis the correlation of conventional and Islamic Index in the regional and global equity. This research become necessary to represent the risk on the capital market and measure market performance, as investor considers the volatility before investing. The time series daily data use from April 2012 to April 2020 both conventional and Islamic stock index in Malaysia and Indonesia. This paper examines the dynamics of conditional volatilities and correlations between those markets by using Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (MGARCH). Our result shows that conventional or composite index in Malaysia less volatile than Islamic, but on the other hand, both drive correlation movement. The other output captures that Islamic Index in Indonesian capital market more gradual volatilities than the Composite Index that tends to be low in risk so that investors intend to keep the shares. Generally, the result shows a correlation in each country for conventional and the Islamic index. However, Internationally Indonesia and Malaysia composite and Islamic is low correlated. Regionally Indonesia's indices movement looks to be more correlated and it's similar to Malaysian Capital Market counterparts. In the global market distress condition, the diversification portfolio between Indonesia and Malaysia does not give many benefits.

Optimal ESS Investment Strategies for Energy Arbitrage by Market Structures and Participants

  • Lee, Ho Chul;Kim, Hyeongig;Yoon, Yong Tae
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.51-59
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    • 2018
  • Despite the advantages of energy arbitrage using energy storage systems (ESSs), the high cost of ESSs has not attracted storage owners for the arbitrage. However, as the costs of ESS have decreased and the price volatility of the electricity market has increased, many studies have been conducted on energy arbitrage using ESSs. In this study, the existing two-period model is modified in consideration of the ESS cost and risk-free contracts. Optimal investment strategies that maximize the sum of external effects caused by price changes and arbitrage profits are formulated by market participants. The optimal amounts of ESS investment for three types of investors in three different market structures are determined with game theory, and strategies in the form of the mixed-complementarity problem are solved by using the PATH solver of GAMS. Results show that when all market participants can participate in investment simultaneously, only customers invest in ESSs, which means that customers can obtain market power by operating their ESSs. Attracting other types of ESS investors, such as merchant storage owners and producers, to mitigate market power can be achieved by increasing risk-free contracts.

Risk of Material Misstatement in the Stage of Audit Planning: Empirical Evidence from Vietnamese Listed Enterprises

  • NGUYEN, Hoan;NGO, Thi Kieu Trang;LE, Thi Tam
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.137-148
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study is to investigate factors influencing risk assessment of material misstatement in Vietnamese enterprises listed on stock market. Expert interview method was conducted to discover the scales for three variables including information system, trademark, and risk assessment of material misstatement. Survey method was used to examine the impacts of eight factors on risk assessment of material misstatement. Data is collected from 317 auditors who have excellent experience in auditing financial statements of companies listed on stock market. Then, data is processed by descriptive statistics, reliability analysis, factor extracted analysis, correlative regression analysis, and analysis variance of residual change. The research findings showed that business characteristic, stakeholder pressure, and economic environment have positive relationships with risk assessment of material misstatement. Three variables including operation control and monitor, control environment, and information system negatively affect to risk assessment. Specially, business characteristic and information system, which are elements in internal control, have strongest impact on risk assessment. One the other hand, assessment of internal control plays an important role not only in the audit plan stage but also throughout the stages of the audit implementation and ending. Therefore, appropriate solutions are proposed to carry out all audit stages.

Modeling Stock Price Volatility: Empirical Evidence from the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange in Vietnam

  • NGUYEN, Cuong Thanh;NGUYEN, Manh Huu
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.19-26
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    • 2019
  • The paper aims to measure stock price volatility on Ho Chi Minh stock exchange (HSX). We apply symmetric models (GARCH, GARCH-M) and asymmetry (EGARCH and TGARCH) to measure stock price volatility on HSX. We used time series data including the daily closed price of VN-Index during 1/03/2001-1/03/2019 with 4375 observations. The results show that GARCH (1,1) and EGARCH (1,1) models are the most suitable models to measure both symmetry and asymmetry volatility level of VN-Index. The study also provides evidence for the existence of asymmetric effects (leverage) through the parameters of TGARCH model (1,1), showing that positive shocks have a significant effect on the conditional variance (volatility). This result implies that the volatility of stock returns has a big impact on future market movements under the impact of shocks, while asymmetric volatility increase market risk, thus increase the attractiveness of the stock market. The research results are useful reference information to help investors in forecasting the expected profit rate of the HSX, and also the risks along with market fluctuations in order to take appropriate adjust to the portfolios. From this study's results, we can see risk prediction models such as GARCH can be better used in risk forecasting especially.

Modeling and Forecasting Saudi Stock Market Volatility Using Wavelet Methods

  • ALSHAMMARI, Tariq S.;ISMAIL, Mohd T.;AL-WADI, Sadam;SALEH, Mohammad H.;JABER, Jamil J.
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.11
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    • pp.83-93
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    • 2020
  • This empirical research aims to modeling and improving the forecasting accuracy of the volatility pattern by employing the Saudi Arabia stock market (Tadawul)by studying daily closed price index data from October 2011 to December 2019 with a number of observations being 2048. In order to achieve significant results, this study employs many mathematical functions which are non-linear spectral model Maximum overlapping Discrete Wavelet Transform (MODWT) based on the best localized function (Bl14), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models. Therefore, the major findings of this study show that all the previous events during the mentioned period of time will be explained and a new forecasting model will be suggested by combining the best MODWT function (Bl14 function) and the fitted GARCH model. Therefore, the results show that the ability of MODWT in decomposition the stock market data, highlighting the significant events which have the most highly volatile data and improving the forecasting accuracy will be showed based on some mathematical criteria such as Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Absolute Scaled Error (MASE), Root Means Squared Error (RMSE), Akaike information criterion. These results will be implemented using MATLAB software and R- software.

A Study for risk management on Documentary Collection(D/P, D/A) Payment (추심결제(D/P, D/A)방식에서의 위험관리에 관한 연구)

  • Kwak, Su-Young
    • International Commerce and Information Review
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.283-304
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    • 2008
  • According to globalization and localization of world economics international trade payment method was also changed. A traditional payment was Letter of Credit basis, however it is being increased to various methods such as remittance, documentary collection(D/P, D/A) and open account. In order to acquire a secure export payment, exporters prefer to L/C basis which is guaranteed by a reliable bank. However, the L/C should bear a security so that importers would rather documentary collection than L/C. The reasons for the preference of collection payment rather than L/C are a low commission cost, the conversion of buyer's market from seller's market due to severe competition in the world market, transaction increase between main office and branches and a right to control the goods until executing the payment by exporters. Besides of them, collection payment can handle safer and faster than open account basis. However, the collection payment has a risk which it isn't guaranteed by bank for the payment so that I would suggest countermeasures to minimize the payment risk utilizing the collection basis as follows; using export credit insurance system, a large domestic credit report provider such as D&B for absolutely fresh and new information, a collection proxy service for overseas deferred credit and suggestion specifying to order B/L not straight one on consignee in order to transfer the right of ownership with endorsement without problem.

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A Study on the Quantification of Market-Government Response for Import Interruption Risk of Base Metal in Korea (베이스메탈 수입중단에 대한 민관 대응 리스크 물량 산정 연구)

  • Kim, Yujeong
    • Resources Recycling
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    • v.30 no.5
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    • pp.3-9
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    • 2021
  • In Korea, base metals such as lead, zinc, copper, tin, nickel, and aluminum have a polarized supply and demand structure. Despite the presence of world-class producers of lead, zinc, and copper, and their production is insufficient. And there are no domestic producers of tin, nickel, and aluminum, Thus, most of the domestic demand is dependent on imports. Therefore, it is necessary to prepare for the risk of supply interruption, such as the disruption of the import of base metals or interruption of domestic production. In this study, we estimated the quantity required to respond to the risk of import disruption, the quantity to which the market can respond, and the quantity to which the government needs to respond for six base metals (copper, lead, zinc, aluminum, nickel, and tin).