• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
• /
• 제44권4호
• /
• pp.79-108
• /
• 2022

This study examines the impact of sentiment shock, which is defined as a stochastic innovation to the Housing Market Confidence Index (HMCI) that is orthogonal to past housing price changes, on aggregate housing price changes and housing price volatility. This paper documents empirical evidence that sentiment shock has a statistically significant relationship with Korea's aggregate housing price changes. Specifically, the key findings show that an increase in sentiment shock predicts a rise in the aggregate housing price and a drop in its volatility at the national level. For the Seoul Metropolitan Region (SMR), this study also suggests that sentiment shock is positively associated with one-month-ahead aggregate housing price changes, whereas an increase in sentiment volatility tends to increase housing price volatility as well. In addition, the out-of-sample forecasting exercises conducted here reveal that the prediction model endowed with sentiment shock and sentiment volatility outperforms other competing prediction models.

• Asia Pacific Journal of Business Review
• /
• 제1권1호
• /
• pp.1-22
• /
• 2016

The prediction of prices of agricultural products in the agriculture IT sector plays a significant role in the economic life of consumers and anyone engaged in agricultural business, and as these prices fluctuate more often than do other prices, the prediction of these prices holds a great deal of research promise. For this reason, academic literature has provided studies on the factors influencing the prices of agricultural products and the price index. However, as these factors vary, they are difficult to predict, resulting in the challenge of acquiring quantitative data. China is one example of a country without a reliable prediction system for prices of agricultural products. Fortunately, disclosed heterogeneous data can be found on the Internet, which allows for the effective collection of factors related to the prediction of these product prices through the use of text mining. The data provided online is valuable in that they reflect the opinions of the general public in real-time. Accordingly, this study aims to use heterogeneous data from the Internet and suggest a model predicting the prices of agricultural products before functional analyses. Toward this end, data analyses were conducted on the Chinese agricultural products market, one of the largest markets in the world.

• 한국지능정보시스템학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국지능정보시스템학회 2003년도 춘계학술대회
• /
• pp.329-337
• /
• 2003

Stock market prediction is regarded as a challenging task of financial time-series prediction. There have been many studies using artificial neural networks in this area. Recently, support vector machines (SVMs) are regarded as promising methods for the prediction of financial time-series because they me a risk function consisting the empirical ewer and a regularized term which is derived from the structural risk minimization principle. In this study, I apply SVM to predicting the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI). In addition, this study examines the feasibility of applying SVM in financial forecasting by comparing it with back-propagation neural networks and case-based reasoning. The experimental results show that SVM provides a promising alternative to stock market prediction.

• 한국지능정보시스템학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국지능정보시스템학회 2001년도 춘계정기학술대회
• /
• pp.399-408
• /
• 2001

This paper presents a simultaneous optimization approach of case-based reasoning (CBR) using a genetic algorithm(GA) for the prediction of stock price index. Prior research suggested many hybrid models of CBR and the GA for selecting a relevant feature subset or optimizing feature weights. Most studies, however, used the GA for improving only a part of architectural factors for the CBR system. However, the performance of CBR may be enhanced when these factors are simultaneously considered. In this study, the GA simultaneously optimizes multiple factors of the CBR system. Experimental results show that a GA approach to simultaneous optimization of CBR outperforms other conventional approaches for the prediction of stock price index.

• 한국컴퓨터정보학회논문지
• /
• 제28권8호
• /
• pp.67-75
• /
• 2023

주가 예측은 금융시장에서 중요하게 다뤄지고 있는 주제이지만 영향을 미칠 수 있는 다수의 요소들로 인해 어려운 주제로 고려되고 있다. 본 논문에서는 시계열 예측 모델 (LSTM, GRU)과 데이터의 시간적 의존성을 고려하지 않는 비 시계열 예측 모델 (RF, SVR, KNN, LGBM)을 주가 예측에 적용하여 성능을 비교하고 분석하였다. 또한 주가 데이터와 기술적 분석 보조지표, 재무제표 지표, 매수매도 지표, 공매도, 외국인 지표 등 다양한 데이터를 조합 및 활용하여 최적의 예측 요소를 찾아내고 업종별로 주가 예측에 영향을 미치는 주요 요소들을 분석했다. 하이퍼파라미터 최적화 과정을 통해 알고리즘별 예측 성능을 향상 시키는 과정도 진행하여 성능에 영향을 주는 요인을 분석하였다. 변수 선택과 하이퍼 파라미터 최적화 과정을 거친 결과, 시계열 예측 알고리즘인 GRU, 그리고 LSTM+GRU의 예측 정확도가 가장 높은 것으로 나타났다.

• 스마트미디어저널
• /
• 제13권1호
• /
• pp.9-17
• /
• 2024

본 연구는 농산물의 품질, 수익 및 의사결정 효율성을 향상시키기 위한 통합적인 농업 유통망 관리시스템을 개발하는 데 목적이 있다. 우리는 YOLOX 객체 탐지 알고리즘을 기반으로 한 농작물 성숙도 체크와 Prophet 모델을 기반으로 한 시장 가격 예측이라는 두 가지 핵심 기술을 채택하였다. 객체 탐지 모델을 훈련함으로써, 다양한 성숙도 단계의 농작물을 정확하게 식별할 수 있게 되어 출하 시기를 최적화할 수 있었다. 동시에, 과거 시장 가격 데이터를 수집하고 Prophet 모델을 사용하여 가격을 예측함으로써, 출하시기 결정권자들에게 신뢰할 수 있는 가격 추세 정보를 제공하였다. 연구 결과에 따르면, 휴일 요소를 고려한 모델의 성능이 그렇지 않은 모델보다 두드러지게 우수하다는 것이 밝혀져서 휴일이 가격에 미치는 영향이 강함을 증명하였다. 이 시스템은 농민 및 농산물 유통 관리자에게 강력한 도구 및 의사결정 지원을 제공하여, 다양한 계절과 휴일 기간 동안 현명한 의사결정을 내릴 수 있게 도와준다. 아울러, 농산물 유통망을 최적화하고 농산물의 품질과 수익을 향상시킬 수 있다.

• 한국멀티미디어학회논문지
• /
• 제24권3호
• /
• pp.448-459
• /
• 2021

In this paper, we propose a method of predicting the next-day stock price fluctuations of 10 KOSDAQ-listed companies in 5G, autonomous driving, and electricity sectors by training SVM, XGBoost, and LightGBM models from macroeconomic·financial market indicators, technical indicators, social interest indicators, and daily positive indices extracted from online news. In the three experiments to find out the usefulness of social interest indicators and daily positive indices, the average accuracy improved when each indicator and index was added to the models. In addition, when feature selection was performed to analyze the superiority of the extracted features, the average importance ranking of the social interest indicator and daily positive index was 5.45 and 1.08, respectively, it showed higher importance than the macroeconomic financial market indicators and technical indicators. With the results of these experiments, we confirmed the effectiveness of the social interest indicators as alternative data and the daily positive index for predicting stock price fluctuation.

• Asia pacific journal of information systems
• /
• 제30권4호
• /
• pp.719-740
• /
• 2020

The stock market changes continuously as new information emerges, affecting the judgments of investors. Online news articles are valued as a traditional window to inform investors about various information that affects the stock market. This paper proposed new ways to utilize online news articles with technical indicators. The suggested hybrid model consists of three models. First, a self-attention-based convolutional neural network (CNN) model, considered to be better in interpreting the semantics of long texts, uses news content as inputs. Second, a self-attention-based, bi-long short-term memory (bi-LSTM) neural network model for short texts utilizes news titles as inputs. Third, a bi-LSTM model, considered to be better in analyzing context information and time-series models, uses 19 technical indicators as inputs. We used news articles from the previous day and technical indicators from the past seven days to predict the share price of the next day. An experiment was performed with Korean stock market data and news articles from 33 top companies over three years. Through this experiment, our proposed model showed better performance than previous approaches, which have mainly focused on news titles. This paper demonstrated that news titles and content should be treated in different ways for superior stock price prediction.

• 재무관리연구
• /
• 제15권2호
• /
• pp.369-399
• /
• 1998

주가가 과연 예측가능한가의 여부는 이론적으로나 실무적으로 매우 중요한 의미를 가져 이 부분에 대해 많은 연구가 이루어져 왔으나 많은 기존연구들은 주가가 예측 가능하다는 결론을 얻지 못하고 있으며, 예측 가능하다는 연구에서도 예측력이 크지 않게 나타나고 있다. 이러한 실증결과는 실증모형의 선택이 적절하지 못한데서 나타날 수 있다는 가능성을 배제할 수 없다. 기존연구들이 실증분석에서 선형모형을 사용했는데, 선형모형으로는 주가의 예측가능성을 정확히 검증하기 어려운 현실적 요인들이 존재할 수 있다. 증권시장에는 시장실패를 방지하기 위한 규제나 제도 및 시장의 불완전성으로 인해 주가움직임에 선형모형으로 추정하기 어려운 특이패턴이 발생할 수 있기 때문이다. 이 논문에서는 이러한 특이패턴이 존재한다는 가능성을 전제로 비모수적 모형, 그 중에서도 인공신경망모형을 이용하여 주가예측 가능성을 재검증해 보고자 한다. 특히 인공신경망모형을 이용한 예측성과를 동일한 구조를 가지는 선형모형의 성과와 비교함으로써 특이패턴의 고려가 주가예측에 어떤 개선을 제공할 수 있는지를 검증해 보고자 한다. 분석결과를 요약하면, 인공신경망모형이 예측력을 가질 수 있으며, 특히 유사한 구조를 가지는 선형모형보다 우월한 성과를 제공할 수 있다는 가능성을 발견하였다. 이는 선형모형으로 추정하기 어려운 특이패턴이 주가움직임에 존재하며, 따라서 이러한 패턴을 반영할 수 있는 인공신경망모형이 주가예측에 유용하게 사용될 수 있다는 것을 보이는 결과라 볼 수 있다.

• 한국컴퓨터정보학회논문지
• /
• 제22권11호
• /
• pp.111-116
• /
• 2017

This paper proposes a data mining approach to predicting stock price direction. Stock market fluctuates due to many factors. Therefore, predicting stock price direction has become an important issue in the field of stock market analysis. However, in literature, there are few studies applying data mining approaches to predicting the stock price direction. To contribute to literature, this paper proposes comparing single classifiers and ensemble classifiers. Single classifiers include logistic regression, decision tree, neural network, and support vector machine. Ensemble classifiers we consider are adaboost, random forest, bagging, stacking, and vote. For the sake of experiments, we garnered dataset from Korea Stock Exchange (KRX) ranging from 2008 to 2015. Data mining experiments using WEKA revealed that random forest, one of ensemble classifiers, shows best results in terms of metrics such as AUC (area under the ROC curve) and accuracy.