• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• 제12권6호
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• pp.2196-2207
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• 2017

This paper presents a two-stage market auction model in a pool-based electricity market, which explicitly takes into account the system network security. The security network-constrained market auction model considers the use of corrective control to yield economically efficient actions in the post-contingency state, while ensuring a certain security level. Under this framework, the proposed model shows not only for quantifying the correlation between secure system operation and efficient market operation, but also for providing transparent information on the pricing system security for market participants. The two-stage market auction procedure is formulated using Benders decomposition (BD). In the first stage, the market participants bid in the market for maximizing their profit, and the independent system operator (ISO) clears the market based on social welfare maximization. System network constraints incorporating post-contingency control actions are described in the second stage of the market auction procedure. The market solutions, along with the BD, yield nodal spot prices (NSPs) and nodal congestion prices (NCPs) as byproducts of the proposed two-stage market auction model. Two benchmark systems are used to test and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model.

• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제27권2호
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• pp.176-180
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• 2001

In Korea, the mobile telecommunication service market is expanding rapidly and becoming more competitive. For service providers in such a dynamic environment, it is very important to accurately forecast demand including market potential in order to work out marketing strategies. In this paper, we suggest a general approach to forecast the market potential using a multinomial logit model, which is applied to individual-level market survey data. Then we develop a dynamic market potential model that can adapt to changes in the external environment without requiring further market survey. The proposed model is applied to the mobile telecommunication service market in Korea.

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제51권4호
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• pp.691-700
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• 2023

Purpose: This study aims to analyze the diffusion pattern of the Mongolian mobile phone market. In particular, we used a generalized diffusion model to explore the factors affecting market potenial. Methods: We used three diffusion models to estimate the number of mobile subscribers in Mongolia. Based on the Logistic model with the best fitness, we introduced time-varying market potential and explored the influence of various independent variables such as GDP and inflation. Results: Among the basic diffusion models, the Logistic model was the best in terms of estimation performance and statistical significance. The estimation results of the Generalized Logistic model confirm that investment in the telecommunication sector has a significant positive effect on market potential. The estimation of the Generalized Logistic model effectively describes the continuous growth of the Mongolian telecommunications market until recently. Conclusion: We have analyzed the diffusion pattern of the Mongolian telecommunications market and found that the amount of investment in the sector leads to the growth of the market size. This study is original in terms of its subject - Mongolian telecommunications market and methodology - time-varying market potential.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 2007년도 추계학술대회 논문집 전력기술부문
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• pp.258-260
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• 2007

MAS based market simulator has attracted the attentions of people who are interested in using or developing electricity market simulator. MAS based approach makes it possible to model each market participant's strategic behaviors. Traditional market simulators have used optimization formulation to model market operation, which has been used since vertically integrated system. Optimization mainly uses cost minimization or welfare maximization of entire system. Therefore it is somehow difficult to model the independently strategic behaviors of market participants. MAS is one of AI technology based on distributed intelligence which makes it possible to model independently acting entities in competitive market. This paper proposes the method to model strategic participants in electricity market based on MAS.

• 정보통신설비학회논문지
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• 제8권4호
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• pp.157-162
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• 2009

This study's purpose is to forecast the market demand of UVS (u-Transportation Vehicle Sensor) OBU (On-board Unit) of the ubiquitous Transportation. Bass model, Logistic model, and Gompertz model were used for the forecasting market demand. Firstly, this research focused on the market size for the u-T OBU. All three models were used for the market size prediction and the average values were used. The Bass model were calibrated and the market demand for the UVS OBU of the u-Transportation system were estimated using this model.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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• 제6권2호
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• pp.95-116
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• 2005

The purpose of this study is to analyze the structure of renewable energy market in order to deploy more renewable energy in Korea on the basis of information asymmetry between suppliers and demanders. To attain this purpose we develop the model to analyze and simulate the renewable market using system dynamics. This model is developed not to forecast the accurate size of market but to learn more structure of market using our limited data, mental model and knowledge of market.

• KIEE International Transactions on Power Engineering
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• 제5A권4호
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• pp.403-411
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• 2005

At present, the Cournot model is one of the most commonly used theories to analyze the gaming situation in an oligopoly type market. However, several problems exist in the successful application of this model to the electricity market. The representative one is obtaining the inverse demand curve able to be induced from the relationship between market price and demand response. In the Cournot model, each player offers their generation quantity to obtain maximum profit, which is accomplished by reducing their quantity compared with available total capacity. As stated above, to obtain the probable Cournot equilibrium to reflect the real market situation, we have to induce the correct demand function first of all. Usually the correlation between price and demand appears over the long-term through statistical data analysis (for example, regression analysis) or by investigating consumer utility functions of several consumer groups classified as residential, industrial, and commercial. However, the elasticity has a tendency to change continuously according to the total market demand size or the level of market price. Therefore it should be updated as the trading period passes by. In this paper we propose a method for inducing and updating this price elasticity of demand function for more realistic market equilibrium.

• 디자인학연구
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• 제16권2호
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• pp.355-364
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• 2003

본 연구는 디자인의 프로세스를 2단계모델과 3단계모델로 구분하고 이들 각 모델의 효율성에 대하여 검증하였다. 2단계모델은 디자이너의 창의적인 마인드를 바탕으로 주관적이고 감각적으로 수행하는 디자인활동을 의미하며 반대로 3단계모델인 경우 객관적이고 논리적인 소비자 중심적자인 활동을 의미한다. 기존 연구에서는 이러한 두 가지 모델에 대하여 상대적으로 어떤 모델이 더 효과적인가에 대하여 의견의 일치를 이루어내지 못하였다. 본 연구에서는 이들 두 모델에 대하여 시장선도전략(market leader strategy)과 시장탐색전략(market seeker strategy)의 개념을 통해 각각의 효율성을 제시하였다 즉, 실증분석을 통해 명성브랜드라면 2단계모델을 바탕으로 한 시장선도전략이 그리고 비명성브랜드인 경우에는 3단계 모델을 바탕으로 한 시장탐색전략이 더 효율적이라는 상황적 입장을 제시하였으며 다만 어떤 상황에서 어떤 모델이 더 효율적인지에 대한 다각적인 검토가 더 필요하다고 제안하고 있다.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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• 제9권2호
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• pp.27-43
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• 2008

This study investigates market barriers in increasing the market share of Alternative Fuel Vehicles (AFVs). In particular, this study first conceptualizes the AFVs market model with the aid of generic system archetypes suggested by Wolstenholme. Among four generic system archetypes suggested by Wolstenholme, the market structure of AFVs can be explained by the 'relative achievement' archetype. Starting from the generic system archetype, this study extends the model boundary step by step to take account of various model assumptions necessary to simulate the model numerically. If there is a significant network effect on vehicle operating costs, it is difficult to achieve the shift to AFVs even in the long term without a policy intervention because the car market is locked into the current structure. There are several possible policy options to break the 'locked-in' structure of the car market, such as subsidies on vehicles, subsidies on fuels, and a niche management policy.

• 디지털융복합연구
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• 제18권2호
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• pp.205-211
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• 2020

미래 예측의 방법은 기술적 특성 또는 기술적 성능으로 예측이 가능할 수 있다. 그러므로 기술예측은 경제적, 사회적 이익을 산출해 낼 수 있는 전략적 연구 분야에서 활용되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 이러한 기술적 특성으로 미래를 예측하는 방법의 연구를 통하여 미래 시장을 예측하였다. 특별한 제품의 수요 욕구에 따라 시장을 점유하는 시점의 예측을 통해 미래 예측 방법을 연구하였다. 시장수요 예측을 위하여 대표적인 계량적 분석 방법인 연평균성장률(CAGR) 모형, BASS 모형, Logistic 모형, 곰페르츠 성장모형(Gompertz Growth Curve) 등의 비교를 통해 미래시장의 수요예측 모형을 제안하였다. 본 연구는 Rogers의 혁신확산 이론을 접목하여 제품이 시장에 확산되는 시점을 예측하였다. 연구결과로 특별한 제품이 시장을 점유하기 위한 다양한 요인들의 확산 시점을 통해 특별한 상품이 미래 시장에서 성숙하는 시점을 예측할 수 있는 방법론을 개발하였다. 그러나 시장을 예측하기 위한 전문가 판단에 대한 오류를 줄이는 것은 한계점이 있다.