• Title/Summary/Keyword: Market Instability

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Stock market stability index via linear and neural network autoregressive model (선형 및 신경망 자기회귀모형을 이용한 주식시장 불안정성지수 개발)

  • Oh, Kyung-Joo;Kim, Tae-Yoon;Jung, Ki-Woong;Kim, Chi-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.335-351
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    • 2011
  • In order to resolve data scarcity problem related to crisis, Oh and Kim (2007) proposed to use stability oriented approach which focuses a base period of financial market, fits asymptotic stationary autoregressive model to the base period and then compares the fitted model with the current market situation. Based on such approach, they developed financial market instability index. However, since neural network, their major tool, depends on the base period too heavily, their instability index tends to suffer from inaccuracy. In this study, we consider linear asymptotic stationary autoregressive model and neural network to fit the base period and produce two instability indexes independently. Then the two indexes are combined into one integrated instability index via newly proposed combining method. It turns out that the combined instability performs reliably well.

Adjusting Patterns of Production Fluctuation and Trade Transmission Effect of Major Soybean Production Countries on World Market (주요 콩 생산국의 생산변동 조정유형과 무역전이효과 분석)

  • Im, Jeong-bin;An, Dong-hwan;Jang, Suk-Jin
    • Journal of agriculture & life science
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    • v.44 no.2
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    • pp.85-96
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    • 2010
  • In this paper, we tried to investigate the adjusting patterns of production fluctuation of major soybean production countries. In particular, we focus our attention on the trade transmission effect of major soybean production countries on world market. We found that the instability of world market for soybean is likely to be increased mainly due to the production fluctuation and trade transmission effect of major production countries, e.g. Brazil, Paraguay, and Canada. Most of the major production countries have adjusted the production fluctuation through consumption and trade rather than inventory management, and hence the instability of world market for soybean tends to be more instable. Therefore we need to develop the effective policy measures for making domestic soybean market more stable such as a plan for keeping domestic production, a valid inventory management strategy, a use of futures market, and a strategy to diversify import market as a large importing country.

The Impact of COVID-19 on the Volatility of Bangladeshi Stock Market: Evidence from GJR-GARCH Model

  • GOLDER, Uttam;RUMALY, Nishat;SHAHRIAR, A.H.M.;ALAM, Mohammad Jahangir;BISWAS, Al Amin;ISLAM, Mohammad Nazrul
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.29-38
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    • 2022
  • The enormous sway of COVID-19 on the international financial market has been felt across the globe. The financial markets of Bangladesh have also been similarly affected by the global epidemic and experienced a significant increase in volatility. To scrutinise the connection between COVID-19 and the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) indices' return and instability, this study uses data of the DSE from February 2014 to September 2021. A comparative examination of the return and instability of the stock indices of the DSE has also been done considering the outbreak of the current COVID-19 situation. After using the GJR-GARCH (1,1) model, this review uncovers that the outbreak of COVID-19 has a statistically positive noteworthy association with the DSE stock indices' instability, which increases the market's volatility. Traders' fear and the rising frequency of COVID-19 reported patients could cause this. Besides, according to this study, COVID-19 shows a substantial positive linkage with stock market returns that increases the market's return. An appealing valuation, lower interest rates in the banking channel, economic rebound following the closure to prevent coronavirus transmission, improved remittance inflows, and a return of export revenues could all have contributed to this outcome. In addition, the findings also reveal that all market indices are in a mean-reverting phase.

Job Instability in the Korean Labor market: Comparison before and after the IMF Economic Crisis (외환위기 전후의 노동시장 불안정성에 대한 연구)

  • Keum, Jaeho;Cho, Joonmo
    • Journal of Labour Economics
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.35-66
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    • 2001
  • This study first attempted to measure the job instability of Korean labor market by exploiting the data sets of 1998 and 1999 Korean Labor Panels. In order to compare the degrees of job instability of Korea with the one of U.S., we followed the same empirical methods used by Jaeger and Stevens(1999), Neumark et al.(1999), Bemhardt et al.(1999) recently published in the Journal of Labor Economics (vol. 17). Our empirical results suggest that the job retention rate of the Korean labor market during the IMF economic crisis was decreased to the level that the U.S. labor market has never experienced during the past two decades. One noticeable point regarding our estimated four year retention rate is that it takes a form of plateau peaked around 9 and 15 tenure year, which is in sharp contrast with the four year retention rate of u.S. showing a monotonically decreasing tendency over tenure periods. The comparison of 2-year retention rates before and after the economic crisis suggests that job stabilities has been conspicuously aggravated especially for cohorts of long tenure, irregular job, old age, service and sales jobs.

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Analysis of Factors Driving the Participation of Small Scale Renewable Power Providers in the Power Brokerage Market (소규모 재생발전사업자의 중개시장참여 촉진요인 분석)

  • Li, Dmitriy;Bae, Jeong Hwan
    • New & Renewable Energy
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.32-42
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    • 2022
  • Rapid spread of intermittent renewable energy has amplified the instability and uncertainty of power systems. The Korea Power Exchange (KPX) promoted efficient management by opening the power brokerage market in 2019. By combining small-scale intermittent renewable energy with a flexible facility through the power brokerage market, the KPX aims to develop a virtual power plant system that will allow the conversion of existing intermittent renewable energy into collective power plants. However, the participation rate of renewable power owners in the power brokerage market is relatively low because other markets such as the small solar power contract market or the Korea Electric Power Corporation power purchase agreement are more profitable. In this study, we used a choice experiment to determine the attributes affecting the participation rate in the power brokerage market for 113 renewable power owners and estimate the value of the power brokerage market. According to the estimation results, a low smart meter installation cost, low profit variations, long contract periods, and few clearances increased the probability of participation. Moreover, the average value of the power brokerage market was estimated to be 2.63 million KRW per power owner.

Analyzing the Market Structure of International Construction Contracts : Focusing on Korean Construction Firms (국내 건설기업의 해외건설 계약실적 구조 분석)

  • Lee, Kang-Wook
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.124-132
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    • 2019
  • Notwithstanding the crucial contribution of international construction industry in the national economy, previous studies on international construction contracts had mainly focused either on trend investigation or market share analysis at a point of time. Fundamentally, the international construction industry is fragmented due to its project-based nature, is heterogeneous that has to involve different firms from diverse fields, and tends to be dynamic according to macroeconomic conditions. Therefore, the combination of static and dynamic analyses is necessary to understand its underlying structure. This study analyzes the market structure of international construction contracts using the data of 9,173 projects awarded by Korean construction firms from 2000 to 2017. Industry-level performance data is analyzed both in static (market concentration) and dynamic (market mobility and instability) methods, and detailed methodology is also provided. Consequently, the static analysis result shows that the competition among Korean construction firms has been more intensified, and the dynamic analysis result indicates that market positions of Korean construction firms are unstable and vulnerable in most of the regions and the sectors. The combination of static and dynamic indices is found to be helpful to understand the underlying aspects of market structure and can be utilized as an effective strategic reference in the highly competitive market.

An Analysis on Determinants for China Market Entry Type of the Korean Company (한국기업의 중국시장 진출유형에 따른 결정요인 분석)

  • Lee, Je-Hong
    • International Commerce and Information Review
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.223-242
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    • 2010
  • Since the reopening of official relations in 1992, Korean and China have become major trading partners, apart from myriad exchanges in culture and other aspects of society. The subject of this study is to analysis on determinants for China market entry type of the Korean company. This article measure the effects on Korea exporter interests of Korea's trade with china. This paper investigates the determinants of export and FDI referring in entry type in the China's market of Korea company. There are 250 samples and 130 returns, 170 of them are analyzed for a entry competitiveness. This paper has there main a parts, Multiple regression result shows that the export entry competitiveness are positively affected by the product character and market character. However, The enterprise character and location character does not affect in the export competitiveness. Also, the direct investment entry competitiveness are positively affected by the market character and location character. However, The enterprise character and product character does not affect in the direct investment. Logit analysis result show that the direct investment entry does positively affected in CEO international mind and export entry does affect in more than rival competitive products. In addition, the export entry does positively affected in the customer taste diversity, political risk and economical risk, market environment instability.

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Microsatellite Instability and p53, k-ras c-myc Oncoprotein Expression in Non-Small Cell Lung Carcinoma (비소세포 폐암에서의 Microsatellite Instability와 p53. K-ras, c-myc 암단백의 발현)

  • 나석주;곽문섭
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.60-67
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    • 2000
  • Background: Microsatellites are short-tandem repeated uncleotide sequences present throughout the human genome. Alterations of microsatellites have been termed microsatellite instability(MI). It has been generally known that microsatellite instability detected in hereditary non-polyposis colorectal cancer (HNPCC) reflects genetic instability that is caused by impairments of DNA mismatch repair system regarding as a novel tumorigenic mechanism. A number of studies reported that MI occurred at varying frequencies in non-small cell lung carcinoma (NSCLC). However It has been unproven whether MI could be a useful market of genetic instability and have a clinical significance in NSCLC. Material and Method : We have examined whether MI can be observed in thirty NCSLC using polymerase chain reaction whether such alterations are associated with other molecular changes such as p53, K-ras and c-myc oncoproteins expression detected by immunohistochemical stain,. Result: MI(+) was observed in 16.6%(5/30) and MI(-) was 83.3% (25/30) Average age was 50$\pm$7.5 year-old in MI(+) group and 57$\pm$6.6 year-old in MI(-) group. Two year survival rate in MI(=) group (20% 1/5) was worse than MI(-) group (64% 16/25) with a statistic difference. (P=0.04) The positive rate of K-ras oncoprotein expression and simultaneous expression of 2 or 3 oncoproteins expression were higher in MI(+) group than MI(-) group with a statistic difference(P=0.05, P=0.01) Conclusion: From, these results the authors can conclude that MI is found in some NSCLC and it may be a novel tumorigenic mechanism in some NSCLC. We also conclude that MI could be used as another poor prognostic factor in NSCLS.

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A Comparative Study on Precarious Labor Market in Korea and Japan: Gender and Occupational Division of Precarious work (한국과 일본의 불안정노동시장 비교연구: 불안정노동의 젠더적·직업계층적 분절)

  • Back, Seung Ho;AN, Juyoung;Lee, Sophia Seung-yoon
    • 한국사회정책
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.1-29
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    • 2017
  • This study compares and analyzes precarious labor market in Korea and Japan in terms of gender and occupational class. Previous studies have analyzed precarious labor limited to the level of employment type such as non-standard workers. This study reconceptualizes precarious labor in terms of the combination of employment relations and income level. In addition. we analyzed whether there are differences in the characteristics of precarious labor between Korea and Japan. In order to analyze the labor market precariousness in Korea. we used data from the 17th Korea Labor Panel Survey (2014) and for Japan. we used the 9th (2012) data from the Keio Household Panel Survey. As a result. we could confirm the feminization of labor market precariousness and horizontal division by occupation in both Korea and Japan. Also. ordered logistic regression analysis showed that the more women. and those in their 60s or older. the less skilled service workers. or the manufacturing workers are likely to face labor market instability in both Korea and Japan. The results of this analysis reflect the fact that Korea and Japan have experienced similar changes in the labor market structure with institutionalized employment protection system based on male workers.

Comparative Analysis for Real-Estate Price Index Prediction Models using Machine Learning Algorithms: LIME's Interpretability Evaluation (기계학습 알고리즘을 활용한 지역 별 아파트 실거래가격지수 예측모델 비교: LIME 해석력 검증)

  • Jo, Bo-Geun;Park, Kyung-Bae;Ha, Sung-Ho
    • The Journal of Information Systems
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.119-144
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    • 2020
  • Purpose Real estate usually takes charge of the highest proportion of physical properties which individual, organizations, and government hold and instability of real estate market affects the economic condition seriously for each economic subject. Consequently, practices for predicting the real estate market have attention for various reasons, such as financial investment, administrative convenience, and wealth management. Additionally, development of machine learning algorithms and computing hardware enhances the expectation for more precise and useful prediction models in real estate market. Design/methodology/approach In response to the demand, this paper aims to provide a framework for forecasting the real estate market with machine learning algorithms. The framework consists of demonstrating the prediction efficiency of each machine learning algorithm, interpreting the interior feature effects of prediction model with a state-of-art algorithm, LIME(Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanation), and comparing the results in different cities. Findings This research could not only enhance the academic base for information system and real estate fields, but also resolve information asymmetry on real estate market among economic subjects. This research revealed that macroeconomic indicators, real estate-related indicators, and Google Trends search indexes can predict real-estate prices quite well.