• Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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• v.53 no.4
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• pp.423-429
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• 2017

As invigoration plan of the marine tourism, Busan City has the plan to operate the cruise ship inside of the harbor, but the area has narrow water way with heavy traffic. As a result it is requested to evaluate the safety for the preparation of actual navigation. In this study, the Ship Handling Simulation (SHS) Assessment was conducted, which is regulated by the Maritime Traffic Safety Audit Scheme (MTSAS) in compliance with the Marine Safety Law and the Maritime Traffic Risk Assessment System based on the Electronic Chart Display and Information System (ECDIS). The proximity assessment, control assessment and subjective assessment were implemented, which is enacted by the Marine Safety Law by using the SHS. In the case of proximity assessment, the probability of trespass was not analyzed. As the control assessment, the swept path was measured at 11.7 m and 11.5 m for port entry and port departure respectively, which exceeded the width of the model vessel, 10.4 m over; it was considered as a marginal factor. As a result of the subjective evaluation of the navigator, there would be no difficulty on ship maneuvering by paying particular attention to the mooring vessel nearby the Busan Bridge and Yeongdo Bridge as well as the coming vessel from the invisible sea area when the vessel is entering and departing the port. The Marine Traffic Risk Assessment System analyzed as [Cautious] level until the vessel passed the Busan bridge and the curved area at 5 kts and it became to [Dangerous] level from where it left 75 m to the Busan Bridge. When the vessel passed the Busan Bridge and the curved area at 10 kts and entered the narrow area, it indicated the [Dangerous] level and became to [Very dangerous] level from where it left 410 m to the Busan bridge. In conclusion, the vessel should maintain at the speed of 5 kts to reduce the risk when it passes this area.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.46 no.4
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• pp.425-437
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• 2013

This study performed the bivariate drought frequency analysis for duration and severity of drought, using copula functions which allow considering the correlation structure of joint features of drought. We suggested the confidence intervals of duration-severity-frequency (DSF) curves for the given drought duration using stochastic scheme of monthly rainfall generation for 57 sites in Korea. This study also investigated drought risk via illustrating the largest drought events on record over 50 and 100 consecutive years. It appears that drought risks are much higher in some parts of the Nakdong River basin, southern and east coastal areas. However, such analyses are not always reliable, especially when the frequency analysis is performed based on the data observed over relatively short period of time. To quantify the uncertainty of drought frequency curves, the droughts were filtered by different durations. The 5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, and 95% confidence intervals of the drought severity for a given duration were estimated based on the simulated rainfall time series. Finally, it is shown that the growing uncertainties is revealed in the estimation of the joint probability using the two marginal distributions since the correlation coefficient of two variables is relatively low.