• 보건행정학회지
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• 제3권1호
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• pp.146-168
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• 1993

The study was conducted to project supply and demand of the nurses till year 2010 based on analysis of supply and demand of nurses up to year 1991. Results of the study will provide invaluable information for nurses manpower planning as well as overall health manpower planning for the 21th century. It is projected that nurses will be oversupplied based on the current prductivity which is undesirable situation if the quality of care is considered, and undersupplied based on the the medical law as well as optimal productivity. Thus, it is desirable to increase active supply of nurses. One of the ways of increasing active supply would be increasing the size of training and education. But, considering low employment rate of nurses which is about 59% better way of solving problems related to nurses shortage would be improvement in nurses' employment rate. According to simulation study done as part of this study, if nurses' employment rate goes up to 80%, there is no need for increasing the size of training to meet the demand at the level of medical law.

• 보건행정학회지
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• 제9권3호
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• pp.33-52
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• 1999

The purpose of this study is to project the supply and demand for nurses till the year 2012 and to make recommendations for establishment of proper policies regarding them. To predict the supply of nurses. a baseline projection and demographic methods were employed. The derivative demand was used to forecast the demand of nurses. The results of this study provide us with valuable information on nursing manpower planning for the 21th century. Specifically. results indicate that there will be an oversupply of nurses in the near future based on the current productivity. Based on the medical law. there will be an undersupply of nurses till 2002 but an oversupply after that. Thus. the active supply of nurses must be decreased. One way to achieve this would be decreasing the size of training and education. Thus. we recommend that the number of entrances to 4 year programs will be reduced 20% in 2004. and a reduction of 20% by 2005 in 3 year programs. The results of this study suggest the following: First. a manpower bank for nurses who are trying to reenter the market must be established. Second, improvement of education and retraining is needed for the quality control of nurses. Further studies should take into consideration the above factors.

• 보건행정학회지
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• 제1권1호
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• pp.136-152
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• 1991

The study was conducted to project supply and demand of the physicians from year 1991 to year 2010 based on the analysis of supply and demand of the physicians up to year 1989. Results of the study will provide information for the physicians manpower planning of the 7th 5-year Economic Social Development Planning(1992-1996) and contribute to the overall health manpower planning for the 21the century. It is projected that physician will be oversupplied from the very near future based on the current productivity or underestimated based on the optimal productivity. Thus, it is desirable not to change size of training and education during the 7the 5-year planning period and re-examine the status of the physician manpower at the end of the 7th 5-year period taking into consideration medical services utilization pattern, patients' satisfaction, and physicians' productivity.

• 대한예방한의학회지
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• 제17권1호
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• pp.149-162
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• 2013

Objectives : This study was conducted to estimate the future demand and supply of physicians for korean medicine from 2016 year to 2026 year in order to make an adequate manpower policy in a way of keeping a balance between demand and supply. Methods : Baseline projection method and trend analysis(a polynomial log power equation model) were used in the estimation of future supply and demand respectively. We used data about the amount of oriental doctors from Ministry of Health and Welfare Statistics Yearbook and the treatment days from HIRA Statistics Yearbook. Results : It was projected that the total number of physician of Korean medicine will be 25,178 registered and 18,967 available in clinical setting. According to polynomial equation model which explained the trend of demand and had the highest score of $R^2$ among the equation models, 3,800~5,600 physician in Korean medicine will be oversupplied in 2016 year, 9,000~10,700 physicians in 2021 year and 15,700~17,000 persons in 2026 year depends on annual working days which is 265days, 255days or 239days. Log equation model also showed that overall excess supply of physician manpower in Korean medicine. Conclusions : Alternative manpower policies for Korean medicine doctors should be implemented in a way of both dwindling supplies and growing demand in Korean medical service in terms of Korean medical services utilization and improving physician's productivity.

• 한국응급구조학회지
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• 제7권1호
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• pp.55-64
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• 2003

The purposes of this study which was conducted by applying three projection formulae to the data from admission quota for paramedic of the Ministry of Education & Human Resources Development the number of ambulances the number of emergency medical centers of the Ministry of Health & Welfare and rate of successful candidates of annual report of the National Health Personnel Licensing Examination Board were to find out demand and supply of paramedic from 2002 to 2045 and to expand scope of practice of paramedic in Korea. The conclusions from this study were summarized as follows; (1) The simple formulae derived from the projection formula of the Economic Planning Board were applied under the present Emergency Medical Services Act including qualifying over 3-years experienced EMT-Basic for paramedic examinee, stationing paramedic or EMT-Basic or physician or nurse per ambulance, stationing paramedic or EMT-Basic per emergency medical center and under the amended Emergency Medical Services Act including qualifying only paramedic graduate for paramedic examinee, stationing 4.5 paramedics per ambulance, stationing 10 to 2 paramedics per emergency medical center. (2) It was estimated that on the American basis of 5.6 EMTs per 10,000 in 1996, the number of paramedics under the present act will reach the basis before 2020, the number of paramedics under the amended act will reach the basis about 2040. (3) It was estimated that on the basis of 22,000 paramedics demanded from the number of ambulances, the number of emergency medical centers in 2001, the number of paramedics under the present act will reach the basis before 2015, the number of paramedics under the amended act will reach the basis about 2030. (4) There was relationship between requirements for emergency medical centers scope of practice of paramedic in the act and demand-supply of paramedic, this necessitates surveys, studies, amendment of the act, legalization for expanded scope of practice of paramedic including EMD, instructor, teacher of safety. (5) This study which includes only expanded scope of practice of paramedic and projection for paramedic in the act needs complementary studies such as decision-making process in health manpower policy and so on.

• 성인간호학회지
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• 제15권4호
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• pp.585-595
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• 2003

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to suggest the projected manpower of hospice and palliative care nurses & APNs(advanced practice nurses)needed in the future. Method: Need model, ratio model and expert opinion were used for projecting the number of hospice and palliative care nurses & APNs. Result: 1. The number of Korean hospice facilities was 64 in 2002. The number of hospice nurses in 2001 was 194 and that of beds was 407. 2. The number of hospice target patients was estimated at a minimum of 16,415 to a maximum of 25,254 in 2002, 12,366 to 26,389 in 2005, and 14,057 to 30,000 in 2020. 3. The number of hospice and palliative nurses needed to meet the demands in 2002, 2005 and 2020 was estimated at a minimum of 1,136 to maximum of 1,748, 1,187 to 1,826, and 1,349 to 2,076, respectively. 4. The number of hospice & palliative care APNs needed to meet the demands in 2002, 2005 and 2020 was estimated at 232, 242, and 274, respectively. Conclusion: The legalization of hospice is expected to increase demands for hospice nurses and advanced practice hospice and palliative care nurses in the future.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제21권1호
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• pp.61-69
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• 1988

In this study, the number of physicians presently living in Korea was thoroughly estimated by several means and, on this basis, their productivity and level of supply were estimated. The results were as follows First, the number of physicians who did not notify the Korea Medical Association in May 1987 were 10,110, including 4,093 emigrant physicians(40.5%) ,861 military medical officers,745 public health doctors, and 107 deceased physicians. A total of 1,330 physicians could not be identified by any effort. Second, among the 34,897 registered physicians as of May 1987, 29,933(85.8%) were residing in Korea, 4,115 physicians(11.8%) had emigrated to other countries, and 849 physicians(2.4%) were deceased. Practicing physicians difined as those in Korea who were not retired, serving in the military, or completing residencies or internships, comprised 78.6%(27,414 physicians) of the total number of registered physicians. Third, it is estimated that in the year 2000 the number of registered physicians, physicians residing in Korea, and practicing physician will be 75,040, 64,038, and 57,655, respectively and these are increases of 115.0%, 113.9%, and 110.3%, respectively, compared to 1987. Fourth, the population physician ratio will be 759 to one physician in the year 2000. Fifth, the productivity of physicians, as calculated by relative values defining the productivity of 35 to 44 year-old male physicians as 10, will increase 110.7% in the year 2000 compare to that of 1987, and this increment is almost the same level as that of physician supply. From the results of the present analysis of physician manpower and supply projection, it can be recognized that the development of a regular notification system is necessary in order to identify precisely the number of physicians. Also a policy of physician supply is essential in order to adjust in advance the number of physicians, otherwise there will be surplus to the medical demand.

• 종양간호연구
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• 제4권1호
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• pp.49-61
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• 2004

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to suggest the projected manpower of oncology nurses & Advanced oncology certified nurses needed in the future. Method: Need models, ratio models and expert opinion were used for projecting the number of oncology nurses & Advanced oncology certified nurses. Resul: 1. The demand for the oncology nurses was estimated 6,043 in the year 2003, 6,548 in the year 2005, and 4,556 in the year 2010. 2. The demand range of the advanced oncology certified nurses centering on the number of hospitalized patients were estimated 358-538 in the year 2003, 388-583 in the year 2005, and 448-672 in the year 2010. 3. The demand range of the middle and long term advanced oncology certified nurses centering on the number of sickbed were estimated 507-787 in the year 2005, 523-810 in the year 2010, and 540-837 in the year 2020. 4. The demand range of the advanced oncology certified nurses centering on the number of organizations were estimated 374 in the year 2003, 399 in the year 2005, 410 in the year 2010. 5. The total demand range, concerning the numbers of hospitalized patients, hospital bed, and organizations are estimated 358-538 in the year 2003, 388-787 in the year 2005, 428-840 in the year 2010, and 540-837 in the year 2020. 6. In the demand of developed country's level oncology nurses are OCN's level 1,495, AOCN's level 102 in the year 2003, OCN's level 1,613, AOCN's level 111 in the year 2005, OCN's level 1,879, AOCN's level 128 in the year 2010 in case of the United States, and in case of Canada, 765 in the year 2003, 826 in the year 2005, and 956 in the year 2010.

• 대한임상검사과학회지
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• 제50권4호
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• pp.511-524
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• 2018

본 연구는 임상병리사 인력의 인력의 수급전망을 추계하여 인력계획 수립에 필요한 정책자료를 제공하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 공급은 기초추계(baseline projection) 모형에 근거한 인구학적 방법(demographic method)을 이용하여 추계하였으며, 수요추계는 임상병리사가 검사하는 임상병리검사 건수를 이용하는 의료수요에 의한 방법을 적용하였다. 전반적인 임상병리사 인력수급 추계결과는 생산성의 시나리오에 따라 공급이 과잉되기도 하고 부족하기도 할 것으로 전망되었다. 이렇게 임상병리사의 수급 비교 결과는 임상병리사의 생산성 가정에 따라 달라지지만, 어느 시나리오를 선택할 것인가는 궁극적으로 정부의 정책방향에 따라 달라진다. 즉 임상병리사의 생산성을 현재보다 높게 채택하는지 혹은 낮게 책정하는지는 보험재정 여건 등을 고려해야 하는 정부 정책에 달려있는 것이다. 이에 본 연구에서 정부의 정책방향이 고려되지 않은 2012년 현재의 생산성을 기준으로 한 '생산성 시나리오 3'을 살펴보면, ARIMA모델을 적용한 수요시나리오를 중심으로 보면 근무일수에 따라 2030년에는 2821명에서 4,530명의 임상병리사 공급이 과잉될 것으로 전망된다. 이러한 공급과잉은 전체에서 차지하는 비중이 10%미만이기 때문에 크게 문제가 되지 않을 것으로 판단된다. 그러나 임상병리사사 취업률이 60%대인 점을 감안하면 미취업자를 활용하는 정책도 함께 고려해야한다. 이러한 대책으로는 미취업인력에 대한 취업기회를 확대하는 방향으로 나아가야 할 것이고, 이를 위해서는 보건소 검사실의 기능강화 및 임상병리사 정원증원 및 신분보장, 통원치료 환자를 위한 상설 검사체제 확립, 산업재해 분야 및 의원급 검사기능 강화, 무면허 검사요원의 통제, 해외인력수출 확대 등이 필요할 것으로 사료된다.

• 대한한의학회지
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• 제20권2호
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• pp.27-36
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• 1999

This study was performed to investigate the supply and demand of the oriental medical doctor(OMD) based on the supply and demand analysis of OMD up to the year 1997. The baseline projection and demographic methods were considered to examine the supply of OMD. On the contrary, for the demand analysis, two different approaches were conducted with the nonlinear regression model. The findings of this study indicate that the OMD will be oversupplied before the year 2012 with decreasing rate. However, when we consider the demand of OMD in the future. it is anticipated that the demand of oriental medicine will be increased rapidly with two major aspects. The first is the expansion of insurance benefits. The second is the increasing number of adult diseases because of the aging of the population structure. Therefore, the effective cooperation system and mutual exchange between western and oriental medicine is required for the future. Also. it is necessary to make the oriental medicine of the pharmaceutical services in more scientific way for the appropriate policy of the demand and supply of OMD. For the future study, the students who study abroad, especially China should be considered. These students will be the key element for the future supply of OMD.