• Title/Summary/Keyword: Mann-Kendall trend test

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Development of Drought Vulnerability Index Using Delphi Method Considering Climate Change and Trend Analysis in Nakdong River Basin (낙동강 유역의 기후변화를 고려한 경향성 분석과 Delphi 기법을 이용한 가뭄 취약성 지수 개발)

  • Yang, Jeong-Seok;Kim, Il-Hwan
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.2245-2254
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    • 2013
  • A vulnerability index was developed for drought by using trend analysis and Delphi method. Twelve indicators were selected based on three groups, i.e., hydrological, meteorological, and humanistic groups. Data were collected from Nakdong river watershed. Three trend tests, i.e., Mann-Kendall, Hotelling-Pabst, and Sen's trend tests, were performed for standardizing the indicators and Delphi method was used to estimate the weights for individual indicators. The drought vulnerability index was calculated for seven regions in the Nakdong watershed and Hapcheon turned out to be the most vulnerable region among the study regions. The drought vulnerability index developed in this study can be applied to other regions in Korea for establishing national water resources management plan.

Identification of Meteorological Threats by Climate Change in the Cheongmicheon Basin (기후변화로 인한 청미천유역의 기상학적 위협요인 규명)

  • Lee, Cheol-Eung;Kim, Sang Ug
    • Journal of Industrial Technology
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    • v.35
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    • pp.23-30
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    • 2015
  • In recent, the various methods to predict the hydrological impacts due to climate change have been developed and applied. Especially, the variability of the meteorological factors such as rainfall, temperature, and evaporation can impact on the ecosystem in a basin. The variability caused by climate change on the meteorological factors can be divided by a gradual and abrupt change. Therefore, in this study, the gradual change is detected by simple linear regression and Mann-Kendall trend test. Also, the abrupt change is detected by Bayesian change point analysis. Finally, the result using these methods can identify the meteorological threats in the Cheongmicheon basin.

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Trend Analysis of Earthquake Researches in the World (전세계의 지진 연구의 추세 분석)

  • Yun, Sul-Min;Hamm, Se-Yeong;Jeon, Hang-Tak;Cheong, Jae-Yeol
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.42 no.1
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    • pp.76-87
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    • 2021
  • In this study, temporal trend of researches in earthquake with groundwater level, water quality, radon, remote sensing, electrical resistivity, gravity, and geomagnetism was searched from 2001 to 2020, using the journals indexed in Web of Science, and the number of articles published in international journals was counted in relation to the occurrences of earthquakes (≥Mw 5.0, ≥Mw 6.0, ≥Mw 7.0, ≥Mw 8.0, and ≥Mw 9.0). The number of articles shows an increasing trend over the studied period. This is explained by that studies on earthquake precursor and seismic monitoring becomes active in various fields with integrated data analysis through the development of remote sensing technology, progress of measurement equipment, and big data. According to Mann-Kendall and Sen's tests, gravity-related articles exhibit an increasing trend of 1.30 articles/yr, radon-related articles (0.60 articles/yr), groundwater-related articles (0.70 articles/yr), electrical resistivity-related articles (0.25 articles/yr), and remote-sensing-related articles (0.67 articles/yr). By cross-correlation analysis of the number of articles in each field with removing trend effect and the number of earthquakes of ≥Mw 5.0, ≥Mw 6.0, ≥Mw 7.0, ≥Mw 8.0, and ≥Mw 9.0, radon and remote sensing fields exhibit a high cross-correlation with a delay time of one year. In addition, large-scale earthquakes such as the 2004 and 2005 Sumatra earthquake, the 2008 Sichuan earthquake, the 2010 Haiti earthquake, and the 2010 Chile earthquake are estimated to be related with the increase in the number of articles in the corresponding periods.

Water quality evaluation research through long-term water quality monitoring in Seohwa Stream Watershed (서화천유역 장기 수질모니터링을 통한 수질평가 연구)

  • Kal, Byungseok;Park, Jaebeom;Mun, Hyunsaing;Cho, Sohyun;Joo, Yongeun;Min, Kyeongok
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.256-267
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    • 2022
  • This study analyzed the current status and trend of water quality using long-term water quality monitoring data measured over the past 5 years in the Seohwacheon Basin, located upstream of Daecheong Lake. In the Seohwacheon Basin, a project is underway to reduce the occurrence of algal blooms in the Daecheong Lake and to improve water quality, and continuous management is required for water quality management. The current water quality evaluation aims to identify the water quality management point, and the good water grade and the integrated water quality index (WQI) were used. For trend evaluation, the effect of the water quality improvement project was evaluated using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's Slope. As a result of the evaluation, the current water quality index was used to identify the watersheds and when to manage water quality, and the effect of the improvement project was confirmed through trend analysis. Through this study, it is possible to review the water quality status and improvement effect using long-term water quality monitoring data, so it is expected to be applicable to similar types of watersheds in the future.

Analysis on the Change in the Pan Evaporation Rate in the Coastal Zone (우리나라 연안의 팬증발량 변화 양상 분석)

  • Lee, Khil-Ha;Oh, Nam-Sun;Jeong, Shin-Taek
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.244-252
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    • 2007
  • A long-term change in the evaporation rate have an influence on the hydrologic processes at the interface between the land surface-air and crop yield. Several previous studies have reported declines in pan evaporation rate, while actual evaporation rate is expected to increase due to anthropogenic global change in the future. The decreasing trend of pan evaporation rate might be involved with global warming and accordingly the trend of annual pan evaporation rate also needs to be checked here in Korea. In this study, 14 points of pan evaporation observation are intensively studied to investigate the trend of pan evaporation for the time period of 1970-2000. Annual pan evaporation is decreasing at the rate of 1.6mm/yr, which corresponds to approximately 50mm for 30 years. Annual pan evaporation rate is larger by $\sim10%$ at the coastal area and decreasing rate is faster as -2.46 mm/yr per year, while that is -0.82 mm/yr per year at the in-land area. The results of the Mann-Kendall trend test shows 4 points are decreasing and 10 points are unchanged with 95% confidence interval. But national annual average values show the decreasing trend of pan evaporation rate as a whole, which corresponds to general trend all over the world. This study will contribute to a variety of studies on water resources, hydrology, agricultural engineering, meteorology, and coastal engineering in association with future global climate change.

The analysis of groundwater table variations in Sylhet region, Bangladesh

  • Zafor, Md. Abu;Alam, Md. Jahir Bin;Rahman, Md. Azizur;Amin, Mohammad Nurul
    • Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.369-376
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    • 2017
  • The trend analysis of the study was acquired by selecting multiyear monthly groundwater table data and monitors the wells in each sub-district under the study area. The intention of this research was to analyze the outcome of the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test at greater than the significance level which is 95% of groundwater level in Sylhet. The aptitude is effective at two conjunctures where the confidence bounds are 95% and it meets the estimate line of Sen's. To calculate and assess the spatial differences in the inanition of groundwater table, geostatistical methods was applied based on data from 27 groundwater wells during the period from January 1975 to December 2011 which were obtained from a secondary source, Bangladesh Water Development Board. The geographic information system was used to assess the spatial change in order to find the level of groundwater. Cross-validation errors were found within an advisable level in estimating the groundwater depth with different interpolation models of ordinary kriging methods. Finally, surface maps were generated with the best-fitted model. The southeast region was found highly vulnerable from groundwater level point of view. Northern region was detected highest hazard prone area for diverge groundwater using kriging method.

Yearly and Monthly Trend Analysis of Air Temperature in South Korea (남한지역 기온 변화의 연 추세 및 월 추세 분석)

  • Kim, Gwang-Seob;Hwangbo, Jung-Do
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2005.05b
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    • pp.920-923
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    • 2005
  • 우리나라의 기온변화의 연 추세 및 월 추세를 분석하기 위해서 현재 기상청에서 운영중인 지상기상관측소 76개소 자료를 사용하였다. Mann-Kendall 검정을 이용하여 자료의 추세를 분석하였다. 그 결과는 기온의 전체적으로 상승추세를 볼 수 있었고, 비도시 지역에 비하여 도시 지역의 증가율이 크게 나타났고 100년간의 자료를 가진 지점인 인천, 부산 지점에서 최근 30년간의 기온증가가 지난 100년간의 기온증가에 대부분을 차지함을 볼 수 있다. 또한 월별 추세를 분석한 결과 우기인 7, 8월 동안에는 기온의 상승추세가 강우 현상 등 임의성에 의해 통계적 유의성을 가진 상승 추세가 약화됨을 보여준다.

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Development of Drought Vulnerability Index Using Trend Analysis (경향성 분석을 통한 가뭄취약성 지수의 개발)

  • Yang, Jeong-Seok;Park, Jin-Hyuck;Kim, Nam-Ki
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.32 no.3B
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    • pp.185-192
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    • 2012
  • Drought vulnerability index was developed by selecting drought-related indicators with trend test. Study areas were determined by considering the weir locations from the four major rivers restoration project in Nakdong and Geum river watersheds. Ten indicators were selected and they were categorized into three groups, water resources, precipitation pattern, and social aspects. Annual average surface water level, annual minimum surface water level, annual average groundwater level, and annual minimum groundwater level data sets were collected for water resources aspects. The number of non-rainy days, rainfall concentration ratio, and rainfall deviation were considered for precipitation pattern category. The amount of water available per capita, financial soundness for water resources, and water usage equity were related to social aspects. Mann-Kendall, Hotelling-Pabst, and Sen trend tests were performed for the ten indicator data sets and the results were scored for the drought vulnerability index. The results shows Gumi, Sangjoo, and Hapcheon weirs are relatively vulnerable to drought. The indices were relatively low for the regions in Geum river watershed compared to those in Nakdong river watershed.

A Non-parametric Trend Analysis of Water Quality Using Water Environment Network Data in Nakdong River (낙동강수계 물환경측정망 자료를 이용한 비모수적 수질 경향 비교 및 분석)

  • Kim, Jungmin;Jeong, Hyungi;Kim, Hyeran;Kim, Yongseok;Yang, Deukseok
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.61-77
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    • 2020
  • In South Korea, major public waters have been systematic management under national level. Water environment network has been continuous monitoring for change of aquatic ecosystem, river and reservoir. In Water Quality Monitoring Networks, the data have been generally monitored Per eight days or month, while in Automatic Water Quality Monitoring Network the data have been monitored at daily intervals. Therefore, we were compared and analyzed water quality data between the networks using statistic method for same water quality item. Mann-kendall test results confirm that all points in Water Temperature (WT) and DO were not statistically significant. In particular, the result revealed that there is significant variation of TOC in the four different sites, TN in two different sites, TP in three different sites, WT in seven different sites, pH in two different sites between Water Quality Monitoring Network and Automatic Water Quality Monitoring Network. As a result firm LOWESS, TOC and pH clearly shows different trend. Among different sites, the water quality show the significantly positive correlations between at Sinam-Sangju2 and Namgang-Namgang4. Negative correlation significantly appeared in TP (ADD_Lower-AD1 site), TOC (DG-SG site), pH (GR-GR site), TP (JP-CN) and TN, TP, pH, EC, DO (GC-GC2-1 site).

Characteristics and Trends of Spatiotemporal Distribution of Frost Occurrence in South Korea for 21 Years (21년간 한국의 서리발생 시·공간 분포 특성과 경향)

  • Jo, Eunsu;Kim, Hae-Min;Shin, Ju-Young;Kim, Kyu Rang;Lee, Yong Hee;Jee, Joonbum
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.83-94
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    • 2022
  • In order to actively prepare to frost damage that occurs in the process of growing crops, the spatial and temporal distribution of frost occurrence in South Korea was derived using frost observation data from 20 regions over the past 21 years (2000~2020). The main products are the number of frost days, first frost day, and last frost day by region. And the climatic trends of these results were identified by performing the Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen's slope estimator. In South Korea, a lot of frost occurs in the inland area to the west of the Taebaek and Sobaek Mountains. Relatively closer to the coastal area, the number of frost days is small, the first frost day is slow, and the last frost day is early. The east coast region has fewer frost days, the first frost day is later, and the last frost day is earlier than the west coast region. The southern sea, the southeastern sea region, and the island region rarely experience frost. As a result of the annual time series trend analysis, although South Korea is a country where climate warming is progressing, there was no trend in reducing the number of frost days and slowing the first frost day, and it was found that the last frost day is delayed by 0.5 days per year.