• Title/Summary/Keyword: Management Simulation

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Estimation of Reference Crop Evapotranspiration Using Backpropagation Neural Network Model (역전파 신경망 모델을 이용한 기준 작물 증발산량 산정)

  • Kim, Minyoung;Choi, Yonghun;O'Shaughnessy, Susan;Colaizzi, Paul;Kim, Youngjin;Jeon, Jonggil;Lee, Sangbong
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.61 no.6
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    • pp.111-121
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    • 2019
  • Evapotranspiration (ET) of vegetation is one of the major components of the hydrologic cycle, and its accurate estimation is important for hydrologic water balance, irrigation management, crop yield simulation, and water resources planning and management. For agricultural crops, ET is often calculated in terms of a short or tall crop reference, such as well-watered, clipped grass (reference crop evapotranspiration, $ET_o$). The Penman-Monteith equation recommended by FAO (FAO 56-PM) has been accepted by researchers and practitioners, as the sole $ET_o$ method. However, its accuracy is contingent on high quality measurements of four meteorological variables, and its use has been limited by incomplete and/or inaccurate input data. Therefore, this study evaluated the applicability of Backpropagation Neural Network (BPNN) model for estimating $ET_o$ from less meteorological data than required by the FAO 56-PM. A total of six meteorological inputs, minimum temperature, average temperature, maximum temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and solar radiation, were divided into a series of input groups (a combination of one, two, three, four, five and six variables) and each combination of different meteorological dataset was evaluated for its level of accuracy in estimating $ET_o$. The overall findings of this study indicated that $ET_o$ could be reasonably estimated using less than all six meteorological data using BPNN. In addition, it was shown that the proper choice of neural network architecture could not only minimize the computational error, but also maximize the relationship between dependent and independent variables. The findings of this study would be of use in instances where data availability and/or accuracy are limited.

Evaluation of the Positional Uncertainty of a Liver Tumor using 4-Dimensional Computed Tomography and Gated Orthogonal Kilovolt Setup Images (사차원전산화단층촬영과 호흡연동 직각 Kilovolt 준비 영상을 이용한 간 종양의 움직임 분석)

  • Ju, Sang-Gyu;Hong, Chae-Seon;Park, Hee-Chul;Ahn, Jong-Ho;Shin, Eun-Hyuk;Shin, Jung-Suk;Kim, Jin-Sung;Han, Young-Yih;Lim, Do-Hoon;Choi, Doo-Ho
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.155-165
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    • 2010
  • Purpose: In order to evaluate the positional uncertainty of internal organs during radiation therapy for treatment of liver cancer, we measured differences in inter- and intra-fractional variation of the tumor position and tidal amplitude using 4-dimentional computed radiograph (DCT) images and gated orthogonal setup kilovolt (KV) images taken on every treatment using the on board imaging (OBI) and real time position management (RPM) system. Materials and Methods: Twenty consecutive patients who underwent 3-dimensional (3D) conformal radiation therapy for treatment of liver cancer participated in this study. All patients received a 4DCT simulation with an RT16 scanner and an RPM system. Lipiodol, which was updated near the target volume after transarterial chemoembolization or diaphragm was chosen as a surrogate for the evaluation of the position difference of internal organs. Two reference orthogonal (anterior and lateral) digital reconstructed radiograph (DRR) images were generated using CT image sets of 0% and 50% into the respiratory phases. The maximum tidal amplitude of the surrogate was measured from 3D conformal treatment planning. After setting the patient up with laser markings on the skin, orthogonal gated setup images at 50% into the respiratory phase were acquired at each treatment session with OBI and registered on reference DRR images by setting each beam center. Online inter-fractional variation was determined with the surrogate. After adjusting the patient setup error, orthogonal setup images at 0% and 50% into the respiratory phases were obtained and tidal amplitude of the surrogate was measured. Measured tidal amplitude was compared with data from 4DCT. For evaluation of intra-fractional variation, an orthogonal gated setup image at 50% into the respiratory phase was promptly acquired after treatment and compared with the same image taken just before treatment. In addition, a statistical analysis for the quantitative evaluation was performed. Results: Medians of inter-fractional variation for twenty patients were 0.00 cm (range, -0.50 to 0.90 cm), 0.00 cm (range, -2.40 to 1.60 cm), and 0.00 cm (range, -1.10 to 0.50 cm) in the X (transaxial), Y (superior-inferior), and Z (anterior-posterior) directions, respectively. Significant inter-fractional variations over 0.5 cm were observed in four patients. Min addition, the median tidal amplitude differences between 4DCTs and the gated orthogonal setup images were -0.05 cm (range, -0.83 to 0.60 cm), -0.15 cm (range, -2.58 to 1.18 cm), and -0.02 cm (range, -1.37 to 0.59 cm) in the X, Y, and Z directions, respectively. Large differences of over 1 cm were detected in 3 patients in the Y direction, while differences of more than 0.5 but less than 1 cm were observed in 5 patients in Y and Z directions. Median intra-fractional variation was 0.00 cm (range, -0.30 to 0.40 cm), -0.03 cm (range, -1.14 to 0.50 cm), 0.05 cm (range, -0.30 to 0.50 cm) in the X, Y, and Z directions, respectively. Significant intra-fractional variation of over 1 cm was observed in 2 patients in Y direction. Conclusion: Gated setup images provided a clear image quality for the detection of organ motion without a motion artifact. Significant intra- and inter-fractional variation and tidal amplitude differences between 4DCT and gated setup images were detected in some patients during the radiation treatment period, and therefore, should be considered when setting up the target margin. Monitoring of positional uncertainty and its adaptive feedback system can enhance the accuracy of treatments.

The Smartphone User's Dilemma among Personalization, Privacy, and Advertisement Fatigue: An Empirical Examination of Personalized Smartphone Advertisement (스마트폰 이용자의 모바일 광고 수용의사에 영향을 주는 요인: 개인화된 서비스, 개인정보보호, 광고 피로도 사이에서의 딜레마)

  • You, Soeun;Kim, Taeha;Cha, Hoon S.
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.77-100
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    • 2015
  • This study examined the factors that influence the smartphone user's decision to accept the personalized mobile advertisement. As a theoretical basis, we applied the privacy calculus model (PCM) that illustrates how consumers are engaged in a dynamic adjustment process in which privacy risks are weighted against benefits of information disclosure. In particular, we investigated how smartphone users make a risk-benefit assessment under which personalized service as benefit-side factor and information privacy risks as a risk-side factor accompanying their acceptance of advertisements. Further, we extend the current PCM by considering advertisement fatigue as a new factor that may influence the user's acceptance. The research model with five (5) hypotheses was tested using data gathered from 215 respondents through a quasi-experimental survey method. During the survey, each participant was asked to navigate the website where the experimental simulation of a mobile advertisement service was provided. The results showed that three (3) out of five (5) hypotheses were supported. First, we found that the intention to accept advertisements is positively and significantly influenced by the perceived value of personalization. Second, perceived advertisement fatigue was also found to be a strong predictor of the intention to accept advertisements. However, we did not find any evidence of direct influence of privacy risks. Finally, we found that the significant moderating effect between the perceived value of personalization and advertisement fatigue. This suggests that the firms should provide effective tailored advertisement that can increase the perceived value of personalization to mitigate the negative impacts of advertisement fatigue.

Comparison of Natural Flow Estimates for the Han River Basin Using TANK and SWAT Models (TANK 모형과 SWAT 모형을 이용한 한강유역의 자연유출량 산정 비교)

  • Kim, Chul-Gyum;Kim, Nam-Won
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.45 no.3
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    • pp.301-316
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    • 2012
  • Two models, TANK and SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) were compared for simulating natural flows in the Paldang Dam upstream areas of the Han River basin in order to understand the limitations of TANK and to review the applicability and capability of SWAT. For comparison, simulation results from the previous research work were used. In the results for the calibrated watersheds (Chungju Dam and Soyanggang Dam), two models provided promising results for forecasting of daily flows with the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency of around 0.8. TANK simulated observations during some peak flood seasons better than SWAT, while it showed poor results during dry seasons, especially its simulations did not fall down under a certain value. It can be explained that TANK was calibrated for relatively larger flows than smaller ones. SWAT results showed a relatively good agreement with observed flows except some flood flows, and simulated inflows at the Paldang Dam considering discharges from upper dams coincided with observations with the model efficiency of around 0.9. This accounts for SWAT applicability with higher accuracy in predicting natural flows without dam operation or artificial water uses, and in assessing flow variations before and after dam development. Also, two model results were compared for other watersheds such as Pyeongchang-A, Dalcheon-B, Seomgang-B, Inbuk-A, Hangang-D, and Hongcheon-A to which calibrated TANK parameters were applied. The results were similar to the case of calibrated watersheds, that TANK simulated poor smaller flows except some flood flows and had same problem of keeping on over a certain value in dry seasons. This indicates that TANK application may have fatal uncertainties in estimating low flows used as an important index in water resources planning and management. Therefore, in order to reflect actually complex and complicated physical characteristics of Korean watersheds, and to manage efficiently water resources according to the land use and water use changes with urbanization or climate change in the future, it is necessary to utilize a physically based watershed model like SWAT rather than an existing conceptual lumped model like TANK.

Fate Analysis and Impact Assessment for Vehicle Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) Emitted from Metropolitan City Using Multimedia Fugacity Model (다매체거동모델을 이용한 대도시 자동차 배출 Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) 거동 해석 및 영향평가)

  • Rhee, Gahee;Hwangbo, Soonho;Yoo, ChangKyoo
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.56 no.4
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    • pp.479-495
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    • 2018
  • This study was carried out to research the multimedia fate modeling, concentration distribution and impact assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) emitted from automobiles, which are known as carcinogenic and mutation chemicals. The amount of emissions of PAHs was determined based on the census data of automobiles at a target S-city and emission factors of PAHs, where multimedia fugacity modeling was conducted by the restriction of PAHs transfer between air-soil at the impervious area. PAHs' Concentrations and their distributions at several environmental media were predicted by multimedia fugacity model (level III). The residual amounts and the distributions of PAHs through mass transfer of PAHs between environment media were used to assess the health risk of PAHs at unsteady state (level IV), where the sensitivity analyses of the model parameter of each variable were conducted based on Monte Carlo simulation. The experimental result at S-city showed that Fluoranthene among PAHs substances are the highest residual concentrations (60%, 53%, 32% and 34%) at all mediums (atmospheric, water, soil, sediment), respectively, where most of the PAHs were highly accumulated in the sediment media (more than 80%). A result of PAHs concentration changes in S-city over the past 34 years identified that PAHs emissions from all environmental media increased from 1983 to 2005 and decreased until 2016, where the emission of heavy-duty vehicle including truck revealed the largest contribution to the automotive emissions of PAHs at all environment media. The PAHs concentrations in soil and water for the last 34 years showed the less value than the legal standards of PAHs, but the PAHs in air exceeded the air quality standards from 1996 to 2016. The result of this study is expected to contribute the effective management and monitoring of toxic chemicals of PAHs at various environment media of Metropolitan city.

Estimation of Growing Stock and Carbon Stock based on Components of Forest Type Map: The case of Kangwon Province (임상도 특성에 따른 임목축적 및 탄소저장량 추정: 강원도를 중심으로)

  • Kim, So Won;Son, Yeong Mo;Kim, Eun Sook;Park, Hyun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.103 no.3
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    • pp.446-452
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    • 2014
  • This research aimed to provide a method to estimate growing stock and carbon stock using the characteristics of forest type map such as the age-class, DBH class and crown density class. We transformed the growing stock data of national forest inventory (mainly Kangwon-do province) onto those of time when the forest type map was established. We developed a simulation model for the growing stock using the transformed data and the characteristics of forest type map by the quantification method I. By comparing partial correlation coefficient, we found that quantification of growing stock was largely affected by age-class followed by crown density class, forest type and DBH class. The growing stock, was estimated as minimum in the broadleaved forest with age-class II, DBH class 'Small', and crown density class 'Low' as $20.0m^3/ha$, whereas showed maximum value in the coniferous forest with age-class VI, DBH class 'Large', and crown density class 'High' as $305.0m^3/ha$. The growing stock for coniferous, broadleaved, and mixed forest were estimated as $30.5{\sim}305.0m^3/ha$, $20.0{\sim}200.4m^3/ha$, and $23.8{\sim}238.1m^3/ha$, respectively. When we compared the carbon stock by forest type, the carbon stock by age class based on growing stock was maximum when DBH class was 'Large' and crown density class was 'High' regardless of forest type. This estimation of growing stock by using characteristic of forest type can be used to estimate the changes in growing stock and carbon stock resulting from deforestation or natural disaster. In addition, we hope it provide a useful advice when forest officials and policy makers have to make decisions in regard to forest management.

Analysis of Emerging Geo-technologies and Markets Focusing on Digital Twin and Environmental Monitoring in Response to Digital and Green New Deal (디지털 트윈, 환경 모니터링 등 디지털·그린 뉴딜 정책 관련 지질자원 유망기술·시장 분석)

  • Ahn, Eun-Young;Lee, Jaewook;Bae, Junhee;Kim, Jung-Min
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.53 no.5
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    • pp.609-617
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    • 2020
  • After introducing the industry 4.0 policy, Korean government announced 'Digital New Deal' and 'Green New Deal' as 'Korean New Deal' in 2020. We analyzed Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources (KIGAM)'s research projects related to that policy and conducted markets analysis focused on Digital Twin and environmental monitoring technologies. Regarding 'Data Dam' policy, we suggested the digital geo-contents with Augmented Reality (AR) & Virtual Reality (VR) and the public geo-data collection & sharing system. It is necessary to expand and support the smart mining and digital oil fields research for '5th generation mobile communication (5G) and artificial intelligence (AI) convergence into all industries' policy. Korean government is suggesting downtown 3D maps for 'Digital Twin' policy. KIGAM can provide 3D geological maps and Internet of Things (IoT) systems for social overhead capital (SOC) management. 'Green New Deal' proposed developing technologies for green industries including resource circulation, Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage (CCUS), and electric & hydrogen vehicles. KIGAM has carried out related research projects and currently conducts research on domestic energy storage minerals. Oil and gas industries are presented as representative applications of digital twin. Many progress is made in mining automation and digital mapping and Digital Twin Earth (DTE) is a emerging research subject. The emerging research subjects are deeply related to data analysis, simulation, AI, and the IoT, therefore KIGAM should collaborate with sensors and computing software & system companies.

Analysis of Trading Performance on Intelligent Trading System for Directional Trading (방향성매매를 위한 지능형 매매시스템의 투자성과분석)

  • Choi, Heung-Sik;Kim, Sun-Woong;Park, Sung-Cheol
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.187-201
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    • 2011
  • KOSPI200 index is the Korean stock price index consisting of actively traded 200 stocks in the Korean stock market. Its base value of 100 was set on January 3, 1990. The Korea Exchange (KRX) developed derivatives markets on the KOSPI200 index. KOSPI200 index futures market, introduced in 1996, has become one of the most actively traded indexes markets in the world. Traders can make profit by entering a long position on the KOSPI200 index futures contract if the KOSPI200 index will rise in the future. Likewise, they can make profit by entering a short position if the KOSPI200 index will decline in the future. Basically, KOSPI200 index futures trading is a short-term zero-sum game and therefore most futures traders are using technical indicators. Advanced traders make stable profits by using system trading technique, also known as algorithm trading. Algorithm trading uses computer programs for receiving real-time stock market data, analyzing stock price movements with various technical indicators and automatically entering trading orders such as timing, price or quantity of the order without any human intervention. Recent studies have shown the usefulness of artificial intelligent systems in forecasting stock prices or investment risk. KOSPI200 index data is numerical time-series data which is a sequence of data points measured at successive uniform time intervals such as minute, day, week or month. KOSPI200 index futures traders use technical analysis to find out some patterns on the time-series chart. Although there are many technical indicators, their results indicate the market states among bull, bear and flat. Most strategies based on technical analysis are divided into trend following strategy and non-trend following strategy. Both strategies decide the market states based on the patterns of the KOSPI200 index time-series data. This goes well with Markov model (MM). Everybody knows that the next price is upper or lower than the last price or similar to the last price, and knows that the next price is influenced by the last price. However, nobody knows the exact status of the next price whether it goes up or down or flat. So, hidden Markov model (HMM) is better fitted than MM. HMM is divided into discrete HMM (DHMM) and continuous HMM (CHMM). The only difference between DHMM and CHMM is in their representation of state probabilities. DHMM uses discrete probability density function and CHMM uses continuous probability density function such as Gaussian Mixture Model. KOSPI200 index values are real number and these follow a continuous probability density function, so CHMM is proper than DHMM for the KOSPI200 index. In this paper, we present an artificial intelligent trading system based on CHMM for the KOSPI200 index futures system traders. Traders have experienced on technical trading for the KOSPI200 index futures market ever since the introduction of the KOSPI200 index futures market. They have applied many strategies to make profit in trading the KOSPI200 index futures. Some strategies are based on technical indicators such as moving averages or stochastics, and others are based on candlestick patterns such as three outside up, three outside down, harami or doji star. We show a trading system of moving average cross strategy based on CHMM, and we compare it to a traditional algorithmic trading system. We set the parameter values of moving averages at common values used by market practitioners. Empirical results are presented to compare the simulation performance with the traditional algorithmic trading system using long-term daily KOSPI200 index data of more than 20 years. Our suggested trading system shows higher trading performance than naive system trading.

A Study on Significance Testing of Driver's Visual Behavior due to the VMS Message Display Forms on the Road (도로상 VMS 표출방식별 운전자 유의성 검증에 관한 연구)

  • Kum, Ki-Jung;Son, Young-Tae;Bae, Deok-Mo;Son, Seung-Neo
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.7 no.4 s.26
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    • pp.151-162
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    • 2005
  • Variable Message Sign (VMS), which provides drivers with direct information about state of traffic congestion and for prevent an accident, is the most effective method among the methods of providing information in Advanced Transportation Management System. Currently establishment and the VMS which is operated foundation lets in Guidelines on the use of Variable message sign (a book of the VMS) of 1999 November the Ministry Construction & Transportation, these contents mean main viewpoint on physical part such as message special quality variable (font, character size and line space, word interval) and position mainly among standard about establishment in general. But, it is true that using without effect verification on the character of VMS display and that using mode of stationary-centered. In this paper, it executed significance test to effort verification on the character of VMS display for more practical and effective information transmission based on the driver viewpoint For the researches; develop 3D-Simulation, select characteristics of driver's visual cognition behavior (the conspicuity, the legibility and the comprehensibility), evaluation each issue (day or night, 80km/h or 100km/h). Especially, that used the Eye Marker Recorder to measure of reading-time (legibility) thus, confirmed objectivity and reduce an observational error. The results showed that the conspicuity is Flashing> Stationary>Scroll. The legibility is not deference that Flashing between stationary form. Also the comprehensibility result showed that Flashing> Stationary>Stroll form.

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Context Prediction Using Right and Wrong Patterns to Improve Sequential Matching Performance for More Accurate Dynamic Context-Aware Recommendation (보다 정확한 동적 상황인식 추천을 위해 정확 및 오류 패턴을 활용하여 순차적 매칭 성능이 개선된 상황 예측 방법)

  • Kwon, Oh-Byung
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.51-67
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    • 2009
  • Developing an agile recommender system for nomadic users has been regarded as a promising application in mobile and ubiquitous settings. To increase the quality of personalized recommendation in terms of accuracy and elapsed time, estimating future context of the user in a correct way is highly crucial. Traditionally, time series analysis and Makovian process have been adopted for such forecasting. However, these methods are not adequate in predicting context data, only because most of context data are represented as nominal scale. To resolve these limitations, the alignment-prediction algorithm has been suggested for context prediction, especially for future context from the low-level context. Recently, an ontological approach has been proposed for guided context prediction without context history. However, due to variety of context information, acquiring sufficient context prediction knowledge a priori is not easy in most of service domains. Hence, the purpose of this paper is to propose a novel context prediction methodology, which does not require a priori knowledge, and to increase accuracy and decrease elapsed time for service response. To do so, we have newly developed pattern-based context prediction approach. First of ail, a set of individual rules is derived from each context attribute using context history. Then a pattern consisted of results from reasoning individual rules, is developed for pattern learning. If at least one context property matches, say R, then regard the pattern as right. If the pattern is new, add right pattern, set the value of mismatched properties = 0, freq = 1 and w(R, 1). Otherwise, increase the frequency of the matched right pattern by 1 and then set w(R,freq). After finishing training, if the frequency is greater than a threshold value, then save the right pattern in knowledge base. On the other hand, if at least one context property matches, say W, then regard the pattern as wrong. If the pattern is new, modify the result into wrong answer, add right pattern, and set frequency to 1 and w(W, 1). Or, increase the matched wrong pattern's frequency by 1 and then set w(W, freq). After finishing training, if the frequency value is greater than a threshold level, then save the wrong pattern on the knowledge basis. Then, context prediction is performed with combinatorial rules as follows: first, identify current context. Second, find matched patterns from right patterns. If there is no pattern matched, then find a matching pattern from wrong patterns. If a matching pattern is not found, then choose one context property whose predictability is higher than that of any other properties. To show the feasibility of the methodology proposed in this paper, we collected actual context history from the travelers who had visited the largest amusement park in Korea. As a result, 400 context records were collected in 2009. Then we randomly selected 70% of the records as training data. The rest were selected as testing data. To examine the performance of the methodology, prediction accuracy and elapsed time were chosen as measures. We compared the performance with case-based reasoning and voting methods. Through a simulation test, we conclude that our methodology is clearly better than CBR and voting methods in terms of accuracy and elapsed time. This shows that the methodology is relatively valid and scalable. As a second round of the experiment, we compared a full model to a partial model. A full model indicates that right and wrong patterns are used for reasoning the future context. On the other hand, a partial model means that the reasoning is performed only with right patterns, which is generally adopted in the legacy alignment-prediction method. It turned out that a full model is better than a partial model in terms of the accuracy while partial model is better when considering elapsed time. As a last experiment, we took into our consideration potential privacy problems that might arise among the users. To mediate such concern, we excluded such context properties as date of tour and user profiles such as gender and age. The outcome shows that preserving privacy is endurable. Contributions of this paper are as follows: First, academically, we have improved sequential matching methods to predict accuracy and service time by considering individual rules of each context property and learning from wrong patterns. Second, the proposed method is found to be quite effective for privacy preserving applications, which are frequently required by B2C context-aware services; the privacy preserving system applying the proposed method successfully can also decrease elapsed time. Hence, the method is very practical in establishing privacy preserving context-aware services. Our future research issues taking into account some limitations in this paper can be summarized as follows. First, user acceptance or usability will be tested with actual users in order to prove the value of the prototype system. Second, we will apply the proposed method to more general application domains as this paper focused on tourism in amusement park.