• 제목/요약/키워드: Make-to-forecast

검색결과 218건 처리시간 0.019초

특성 변동 관리에 기반한 지능적 수율관리 방안 (A new Intelligent Yield Management Methodology based on Feature Manipulation)

  • 이장희
    • 한국품질경영학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국품질경영학회 2004년도 품질경영모델을 통한 가치 창출
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    • pp.148-151
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    • 2004
  • This study presents a new intelligent yield management methodology which can forecast the yield level of a production unit based on features' behaviors. In this proposed methodology, we identify the existing features using C5.0 that are combination of nodes (i.e., variables) in the decision tree generated by C5.0, use SOM(Self-Organizing Map) neural networks in oder to extract the feature's patterns and classify, and then make features' control rules using C5.0.

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A Robust Energy Consumption Forecasting Model using ResNet-LSTM with Huber Loss

  • Albelwi, Saleh
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • 제22권7호
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    • pp.301-307
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    • 2022
  • Energy consumption has grown alongside dramatic population increases. Statistics show that buildings in particular utilize a significant amount of energy, worldwide. Because of this, building energy prediction is crucial to best optimize utilities' energy plans and also create a predictive model for consumers. To improve energy prediction performance, this paper proposes a ResNet-LSTM model that combines residual networks (ResNets) and long short-term memory (LSTM) for energy consumption prediction. ResNets are utilized to extract complex and rich features, while LSTM has the ability to learn temporal correlation; the dense layer is used as a regression to forecast energy consumption. To make our model more robust, we employed Huber loss during the optimization process. Huber loss obtains high efficiency by handling minor errors quadratically. It also takes the absolute error for large errors to increase robustness. This makes our model less sensitive to outlier data. Our proposed system was trained on historical data to forecast energy consumption for different time series. To evaluate our proposed model, we compared our model's performance with several popular machine learning and deep learning methods such as linear regression, neural networks, decision tree, and convolutional neural networks, etc. The results show that our proposed model predicted energy consumption most accurately.

Prediction of carbon dioxide emissions based on principal component analysis with regularized extreme learning machine: The case of China

  • Sun, Wei;Sun, Jingyi
    • Environmental Engineering Research
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    • 제22권3호
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    • pp.302-311
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    • 2017
  • Nowadays, with the burgeoning development of economy, $CO_2$ emissions increase rapidly in China. It has become a common concern to seek effective methods to forecast $CO_2$ emissions and put forward the targeted reduction measures. This paper proposes a novel hybrid model combined principal component analysis (PCA) with regularized extreme learning machine (RELM) to make $CO_2$ emissions prediction based on the data from 1978 to 2014 in China. First eleven variables are selected on the basis of Pearson coefficient test. Partial autocorrelation function (PACF) is utilized to determine the lag phases of historical $CO_2$ emissions so as to improve the rationality of input selection. Then PCA is employed to reduce the dimensionality of the influential factors. Finally RELM is applied to forecast $CO_2$ emissions. According to the modeling results, the proposed model outperforms a single RELM model, extreme learning machine (ELM), back propagation neural network (BPNN), GM(1,1) and Logistic model in terms of errors. Moreover, it can be clearly seen that ELM-based approaches save more computing time than BPNN. Therefore the developed model is a promising technique in terms of forecasting accuracy and computing efficiency for $CO_2$ emission prediction.

영동 지역에서 강설 특성 관측 및 이해 (Observation and Understanding of Snowfall Characteristics in the Yeongdong Region)

  • 김병곤;김미경;권태영;박균명;한윤덕;김승범;장기호
    • 대기
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    • 제31권4호
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    • pp.461-472
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    • 2021
  • Yeongdong has frequently suffered from severe snowstorms, which generally give rise to societal and economic damages to the region in winter. In order to understand its mechanism, there has been a long-term measurement campaign, based on the rawinsonde measurements for every snowfall event at Gangneung since 2014. The previous observations showed that a typical heavy snowfall is generally accompanied with northerly or northeasterly flow below the snow clouds, generated by cold air outbreak over the relatively warmer East Sea. An intensive and multi-institutional measurement campaign has been launched in 2019 mainly in collaboration with Gangwon Regional Office of Meteorology and National Institute of Meteorological Studies of Korean Meteorological Administration, with a special emphasis on winter snowfall and spring windstorm altogether. The experiment spanned largely from February to April with comprehensive measurements of frequent rawinsonde measurements at a super site (Gangneung) with continuous remote sensings of wind profiler, microwave radiometers and weather radar etc. Additional measurements were added to the campaign, such as aircraft dropsonde measurements and shipboard rawinsonde soundings. One of the fruitful outcomes is, so far, to identify a couple of cold air damming occurrences, featuring lowest temperature below 1 km, which hamper the convergence zone and snow clouds from penetrating inland, and eventually make it harder to forecast snowfall in terms of its location and timing. This kind of comprehensive observation campaign with continuous remote sensings and intensive additional measurement platforms should be conducted to understand various orographic precipitation in the complex terrain like Yeongdong.

인터렉티브 리얼 타임 3D 아트의 미학적 특성 (Aesthetics of Interactive Real-Time 3D)

  • 도순호
    • 한국게임학회 논문지
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    • 제5권2호
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    • pp.3-9
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    • 2005
  • 인터렉티브 리얼 타임 3D(Interactive real-time 3D)는 유저가 가상의 3차원 세계를 탐색하고 또한 몰입하는 폼의 컨텐츠를 경험할 수 있게 해준다. 다른 매체와는 다르게, 인터렉티브 리얼 타임 3D의 사용자(user)는, 디지털 3D의 구조에서의 작용과 반작용이 즉시 일어나는 "실시간"에서 진행되는 프로세스에서 능동적인 역할을 수행한다.

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저고도 운용 항공기를 위한 기상정보의 필요성에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Necessity of Weather Information for Low Altitude Aircraft)

  • 조영진;김수로
    • 한국항공운항학회지
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    • 제28권1호
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    • pp.45-58
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    • 2020
  • According to the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport press release ('18.12.21.) The amendment of the Aviation Business Act will reduce the capital requirements for aviation leisure operators and make it easier to enter aviation leisure businesses by improving regulations on small air transportation business. In addition, as the scale of the UAV(Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) sector is expected to increase globally, the dramatic increase in low altitude operating aircraft, including this, must be taken into account. The low altitude aircraft category is divided into small airplanes, helicopters, light aircrafts and ultra-light aircrafts, and instructors include school instructor pilots and student pilots, military and national helicopter pilots, and aviation leisure operators. In case of low altitude aircraft, there are cases of canceling operations due to low visibility and low clouds, and aircraft accidents due to excessive operation and sudden weather phenomenon. Therefore, in order to prevent low-altitude aircraft accidents, a safe flight plan based on weather conditions and weather forecasts and more accurate and local weather forecasts and weather forecast data are needed to prepare for the rapidly changing weather conditions.

데이터 탐색 기법 활용 전도현상 예측모형 (Data Driven Approach to Forecast Water Turnover)

  • 권세혁
    • 산업경영시스템학회지
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    • 제41권3호
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    • pp.90-96
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    • 2018
  • This paper proposed data driven techniques to forecast the time point of water management of the water reservoir without measuring manganese concentration with the empirical data as Juam Dam of years of 2015 and 2016. When the manganese concentration near the surface of water goes over the criteria of 0.3mg/l, the water management should be taken. But, it is economically inefficient to measure manganese concentration frequently and regularly. The water turnover by the difference of water temperature make manganese on the floor of water reservoir rise up to surface and increase the manganese concentration near the surface. Manganese concentration and water temperature from the surface to depth of 20m by 5m have been time plotted and exploratory analyzed to show that the water turnover could be used instead of measuring manganese concentration to know the time point of water management. Two models for forecasting the time point of water turnover were proposed and compared as follow: The regression model of CR20, the consistency ratio of water temperature, between the surface and the depth of 20m on the lagged variables of CR20 and the first lag variable of max temperature. And, the Box-Jenkins model of CR20 as ARIMA (2, 1, 2).

R&D Intensity and Regulation Fair Disclosure

  • Park, Jin-Ha;Shim, Hoshik
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제6권1호
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    • pp.281-288
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    • 2019
  • This study examines the relationship between R&D intensity and disclosure. R&D activities are essential in bringing innovation to companies. However, R&D activities are naturally uncertain and increase information asymmetry. Thus, firms with high R&D activities are more likely to have the incentive to communicate the potential of R&D investment to the market through voluntary disclosure and, concurrently, resolve information asymmetry. Meanwhile, incentives to less voluntary disclosure exist because of the proprietary cost and the risk of competitiveness loss. Furthermore, the uncertainties inherent in R&D activities caused the possible decrease in the information accuracy. For the two opposing views, this study investigates the relationship between R&D intensity and disclosure frequency using the Regulation Fair Disclosure data in Korea. Moreover, the relationship between R&D intensity and usefulness of the information disclosed is also examined. Using firm sample listed in the 2011-2016 Korea Stock Market, results show that firms with high R&D intensity make disclosures more frequent. Subsequently, the analysis using forecast sample shows that management forecast error is higher in firms with high R&D intensity. This research contributes to the existing literature by presenting evidence that R&D intensity is a significant factor affecting manager's disclosure behavior and information usefulness.

수치 예측 알고리즘 기반의 풍속 예보 모델 학습 (Learning Wind Speed Forecast Model based on Numeric Prediction Algorithm)

  • 김세영;김정민;류광렬
    • 한국컴퓨터정보학회논문지
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    • 제20권3호
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    • pp.19-27
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    • 2015
  • 대체 에너지 기술 개발을 위해 지난 20년 동안 풍력 발전에 관련한 기술들이 축적되어왔다. 풍력 발전은 자연적으로 부는 바람을 에너지원으로 사용하므로 환경 친화적이며 경제적이다. 이러한 풍력 발전의 효율적인 운영을 위해서는 시시각각 변하는 자연 바람의 세기를 정확도 높게 예측할 수 있어야 한다. 풍속을 평균적으로 얼마나 정확하게 잘 예측하는지도 중요하지만 실제 값과 예측 값의 절대 오차의 최댓값을 최소화시키는 것 또한 중요하다. 발전 운영 계획 측면에서 예측 풍속을 통한 예측 발전량과 실제 발전량의 차이는 경제적 손실을 가져오는 원인이 되므로 유연한 운영 계획을 세우기 위해 최대 오차가 중요한 역할을 한다. 본 논문에서는 풍속 예측 방법으로 과거 풍속 변화 추세뿐만 아니라 기상청 예보와 시기적인 풍속의 특성을 고려하기 위한 경향 값을 반영하여 수치 예측 알고리즘으로 학습한 풍속 예보 모델을 제안한다. 기상청 예보는 풍력 발전 단지를 포함하는 비교적 넓은 지역의 풍속을 예보하지만 풍속을 예측하고자 하는 국소지점에 대한 풍속 예측의 정확도를 높이는데 상당히 기여한다. 또한 풍속 변화 추세는 긴 시간동안 관측한 풍속을 세세하게 반영할수록 풍속 예측의 정확도를 높인다.

인공지능기법을 이용한 하천유출량 예측에 관한 연구 (Study on Streamflow Prediction Using Artificial Intelligent Technique)

  • 안승섭;신성일
    • 한국환경과학회지
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    • 제13권7호
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    • pp.611-618
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    • 2004
  • The Neural Network Models which mathematically interpret human thought processes were applied to resolve the uncertainty of model parameters and to increase the model's output for the streamflow forecast model. In order to test and verify the flood discharge forecast model eight flood events observed at Kumho station located on the midstream of Kumho river were chosen. Six events of them were used as test data and two events for verification. In order to make an analysis the Levengerg-Marquart method was used to estimate the best parameter for the Neural Network model. The structure of the model was composed of five types of models by varying the number of hidden layers and the number of nodes of hidden layers. Moreover, a logarithmic-sigmoid varying function was used in first and second hidden layers, and a linear function was used for the output. As a result of applying Neural Networks models for the five models, the N10-6model was considered suitable when there is one hidden layer, and the Nl0-9-5model when there are two hidden layers. In addition, when all the Neural Network models were reviewed, the Nl0-9-5model, which has two hidden layers, gave the most preferable results in an actual hydro-event.