• Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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• v.9 no.3
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• pp.196-203
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• 2010

Make-to-forecast production is a way to realize high customization and fast responsiveness. This study firstly investigates the effect of introducing a common component in a make-to-forecast production environment. The common component can eliminate a modification step, which is a major cost component in make-to-forecast production. It is illustrated, however, that introducing a versatile component that merely covers several variants is unattractive, and thus adding values to the common component is inevitable in this environment. Secondly, an order-matching rule under the condition that two partially overlapped delivery lead time intervals exist is proposed. The rule considers the effect of matching orders to units that can cover both intervals. An alternative re-matching rule is also developed and examined. Numerical experiments clarify that the proposed rule generally realizes higher contribution ratio and lower percentages of orphans and rejected orders. The proposed re-matching rule increases the average contribution ratio at the expense of increased orphans and order rejections.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.68-73
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• 2013

This study is to make a protype of forecast guidance for forecasters from analyzing the characteristics of Korea Fog. The trend of Korea fog showed the decline in the number of foggy days and the duration time, the gradient is -1.24days/year under 3 miles and -0.98days/year under 1 mile and -1.64hours/year under 3 miles and -3.18hours/year under 1 mile in duration time in 27 ROKAF base. To find the protype of inland and coastal forecast guidance, Daegu base as a representation of the inland base and Gangneung base as the representation of the coastal base were chosen. For Daegu base, the mixture of relative humidity, sky condition, and the position of high pressure were selected for the forecast guidance. For Gangneung base, pressure pattern, sea surface temperature, sea currents, and 850hPa temperature patterns were selected for the forecast guidance.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.38 no.2
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• pp.33-33
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• 2013

We are developing empirical space weather (solar flare, solar proton event, and geomagnetic storm) forecast models based on solar data. In this talk we will review our main results and recent progress. First, we have examined solar flare (R) occurrence probability depending on sunspot McIntosh classification, its area, and its area change. We find that sunspot area and its increase (a proxy of flux emergence) greatly enhance solar flare occurrence rates for several sunspot classes. Second, a solar proton event (S) forecast model depending on flare parameters (flare strength, duration, and longitude) as well as CME parameters (speed and angular width) has been developed. We find that solar proton event probability strongly depends on these parameters and CME speed is well correlated with solar proton flux for disk events. Third, we have developed an empirical storm (G) forecast model to predict probability and strength of a storm using halo CME - Dst storm data. For this we use storm probability maps depending on CME parameters such as speed, location, and earthward direction. We are also looking for geoeffective CME parameters such as cone model parameters and magnetic field orientation. We find that all superstorms (less than -200 nT) occurred in the western hemisphere with southward field orientations. We have a plan to set up a storm forecast method with a three-stage approach, which will make a prediction within four hours after the solar coronagraph data become available. We expect that this study will enable us to forecast the onset and strength of a geomagnetic storm a few days in advance using only CME parameters and the WSA-ENLIL model. Finally, we discuss several ongoing works for space weather applications.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.8
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• pp.1-12
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• 2021

Altman's Z-score is used to measure a company's financial health and to predict the probability that a company will collapse within 2 years. It is proven to be very accurate to forecast bankruptcy in a wide variety of contexts and markets. The goal of this study is to use Altman's Z-score model to forecast insolvency in non-financial publicly traded enterprises. Non-financial firms are a significant industry in Malaysia, and current trends of consolidation and long-term government subsidies make assessing the financial health of such businesses critical not just for the owners, but also for other stakeholders. The sample of this study includes 84 listed companies in the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange. Of the 84 companies, 52 are considered high risk, and 32 are considered low-risk companies. Secondary data for the analysis was gathered from chosen companies' financial reports. The findings of this study show that the Altman model may be used to forecast a company's financial collapse. It dispelled any reservations about the model's legitimacy and the utility of applying it to predict the likelihood of bankruptcy in a company. The findings of this study have significant consequences for investors, creditors, and corporate management. Portfolio managers may make better selections by not investing in companies that have proved to be in danger of failing if they understand the variables that contribute to corporate distress.

• Journal of information and communication convergence engineering
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• v.9 no.4
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• pp.369-374
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• 2011

Generally the neural network and the Fuzzy compensative algorithms are applied to forecast the time series for power demand with the characteristics of a nonlinear dynamic system, but, relatively, they have a few prediction errors. They also make long term forecasts difficult because of sensitivity to the initial conditions. In this paper, we evaluate the chaotic characteristic of electrical power demand with qualitative and quantitative analysis methods and perform a forecast simulation of electrical power demand in regular sequence, attractor reconstruction and a time series forecast for multi dimension using Lyapunov Exponent (L.E.) quantitatively. We compare simulated results with previous methods and verify that the present method is more practical and effective than the previous methods. We also obtain the hourly predictability of time series for power demand using the L.E. and evaluate its accuracy.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.41 no.1
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• pp.80.1-80.1
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• 2016

There are probabilistic forecast models for solar flare occurrence, which can be evaluated by various skill scores (e.g. accuracy, critical success index, heidek skill score, and true skill score). Since these skill scores assume that two types of forecast errors (i.e. false alarm and miss) are equal or constant, which does not take into account different situations of users, they may be unrealistic. In this study, we make an evaluation of a probabilistic flare forecast model [Lee et al., 2012] which use sunspot groups and its area changes as a proxy of flux emergence. We calculate daily solar flare probabilities from 2011 to 2014 using this model. The skill scores are computed through contingency tables as a function of forecast probability, which corresponds to the maximum skill score depending on flare class and type of a skill score. We use a value score with cost/loss ratio, relative importance between the two types of forecast errors. The forecast probability (y) is linearly changed with the cost/loss ratio (x) in the form of y=ax+b: a=0.88; b=0 (C), a=1.2; b=-0.05(M), a=1.29; b=-0.02(X). We find that the forecast model has an effective range of cost/loss ratio for each class flare: 0.536-0.853(C), 0.147-0.334(M), and 0.023-0.072(X). We expect that this study would provide a guideline to determine the probability threshold and the cost/loss ratio for space weather forecast.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.40 no.1
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• pp.84.2-84.2
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• 2015

There are probabilistic forecast models for solar flare occurrence, which can be evaluated by various skill scores (e.g. accuracy, critical success index, heidek skill score, true skill score). Since these skill scores assume that two types of forecast errors (i.e. false alarm and miss) are equal or constant, which does not take into account different situations of users, they may be unrealistic. In this study, we make an evaluation of a probabilistic flare forecast model (Lee et al. 2012) which use sunspot groups and its area changes as a proxy of flux emergence. We calculate daily solar flare probabilities from 1996 to 2014 using this model. Overall frequencies are 61.08% (C), 22.83% (M), and 5.44% (X). The maximum probabilities computed by the model are 99.9% (C), 89.39% (M), and 25.45% (X), respectively. The skill scores are computed through contingency tables as a function of forecast probability, which corresponds to the maximum skill score depending on flare class and type of a skill score. For the critical success index widely used, the probability threshold values for contingency tables are 25% (C), 20% (M), and 4% (X). We use a value score with cost/loss ratio, relative importance between the two types of forecast errors. We find that the forecast model has an effective range of cost/loss ratio for each class flare: 0.15-0.83(C), 0.11-0.51(M), and 0.04-0.17(X), also depending on a lifetime of satellite. We expect that this study would provide a guideline to determine the probability threshold for space weather forecast.

• Proceedings of the Korea Society for Simulation Conference
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• 2001.10a
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• pp.306-312
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• 2001

In this research, we are trying to develop a framework to evaluate the prevention program for Tsunami disaster based on the Multi-agent simulation model. Tsunami has arisen by the earthquake. It happened after flew minutes or few hours when it occurred. It is clear that Tsunami will come after earthquake and from seashore. If we prevent the damage by Tsunami, we should make people who is in the seashore and lived near the seaside escape from there. Moreover we must forecast the escape activity from Tsunami. Former research of this field, some researches try to forecast the escape activity as macro level. However, people who escape from Tsunami is differ from their physical ability and ability of information processing. It needs a more accuracy model to forecast the escape activity of them. Furthermore they make a decision step by step using the various information. Therefore escape activity from Tsunami will describe using an agent based model which can only treat the information processing of human being. In this paper, we develop the evacuation model from Tsunami disaster using the Multi agent based model. The purpose of this study is to analyze the human action pattern when Tsunami occurred, and to make an accurately assessment for damages by Tsunami. The Fujisawa city government is planning and operating the various prevention program far Tsunami. However nobody assess it, because they do not have any simulation models for Tsunami disaster. If they want to set an effective prevention program for Tsunami, they should have any kinds of simulation model. The results of this study are 1) To develop the Multi agent based evacuees escape activity model. 2) Assess the damage of Tsunami in Fujisawa-City.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.360-365
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• 2003

In this paper, GMDH(Croup Method of Data Handling) algorithm which is proved to be more excellent in efficiency and accuracy of practical use of data is applied to electric power demand forecasting. As a result, it became much easier to make a choice of input data and make an exact prediction based on a lot of data. Also, we considered both economy factors(GDP, export, import, number of employee, number of economically active population and consumption of oil) and climate factors(average temperature) when forecasting. We assumed target forecast period from first quarter 1999 to first quarter 2001, and suggested more accurate forecasting method of electric power demand by using 3-step computer simulation processes(first process for selecting optimum input period, second for analyzing time relation of input data and forecast value, and third for optimizing input data) for improvement of forecast precision. The proposed method can get 0.96 percent of mean error rate at target forecast period.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.57 no.4
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• pp.135-141
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• 2015

The objective of this study is to develop an early warning system for rainfall induced landslides. For this study, we suggested an analysis process using rainfall forecast data. 1) For a selected slope, safety factor with saturated depth was analyzed and safety factor threshold was established (warning FS threshold=1.3, alarm FS threshold=1.1). 2) If rainfall started, saturated depth and safety factor was calculated with rainfall forecast data, 3) And every hour after safety factor is compared with threshold, then warning or alarm can issued. In the future, we plan to make a early warning system combined with the in-situ inclinometer sensors.