• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.12
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• pp.683-692
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• 2020

The primary purpose of the study is to investigate the volatility spillovers from global economic policy uncertainty and macroeconomic factors to the Islamic stock market returns. The study focuses on the Islamic stock indices of emerging economies including Indonesia, Malaysia, and Turkey. The Macroeconomic factors are industrial production, consumer price index, exchange rate. EGARCH model is employed for investigation of volatility spillovers. The results show that the global economic policy uncertainty has a significant spillover effect only on the returns of Turkish Islamic stock index. Similarly, the shocks in macroeconomic factors have little influence on the volatility of Islamic indices returns. The volatility of Indonesian and the Turkish Islamic stock indices returns is not influenced from the fluctuations in macroeconomic factors. However, there is significant volatility spillover only from industrial production to the returns of Malaysian Islamic index. The results suggest that the Islamic stock markets are less likely to influence from the global economic policies and macroeconomic factors. The stability of Islamic stocks provide opportunity for diversification of portfolios, particularly in stressed market conditions. The major price factors of Islamic markets could be firms' specific factors or investors' behaviors. The findings are helpful for policy makers and investors in formulating policies and portfolios.

• Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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• 2005.11a
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• pp.537-557
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• 2005

The estimate on volatility of stock price is related with optimum of portfolio and Important for allocation of capital asset. If the volatility of stock price is varied according to macroeconomic variables on monetary policy and industrial production, it will assist capital asset to allocate. This paper is related with stock market volatilities on macroeconomic variables in U.S. and Europe, Korea. And, it Is pertain to vary in time of this variables. Thus, this paper is related with volatilities of monetary and physical macroeconomic variables on basis of statistics. And, it is ranged front capital investment to portfolio allocation. Also, this paper takes out of sample forecast and study more after this. In case Germany, France, Italy and the Netherlands, the relative importance of monetary policy and Industrial production Is different from these countries. In case Italy and the Netherlands, monetary policy is primary factor at stabilizing for volatility of stock price. In case Korea, increasing monetary policy and industrial production is positively affected stock market. It is that the positive effect of stock price is caused by mollifying monetary policy and economic growth. Specially, this conclusion is similar to US. In Korea, gradual increase in monetary and industrial production is necessary to stability of stock market. It is different to previous results on basis of increasing stock price of money in long period.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.52-64
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• 2019

The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of macroeconomic variables on air passenger demand and provide useful information to airport managers and policymakers. Therefore, using the quarterly macroeconomic indicators from 2002 to 2017, the relationship with air passenger demand was demonstrated by multiple regression analysis. In the previous studies, they used GDP, Korea Treasury Bond, KOSPI index, USD/KRW Exchange Rate, and WTI Crude Oil Price variables. In this study, we used the Coincident Composite Index, Employment Rate, Consumer Sentiment Index, and Private Consumption Rate used as additional variables. It has confirmed that if the consumption of research results expands or the economic environment is right, it will affect the increase in international passengers. In other words, it confirmed that the overall economic situation acts as the main factor determining air passenger demand. It confirmed that the economic environment at the past has a significant impact on air passenger demand.

• Land and Housing Review
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• v.12 no.4
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• pp.41-59
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• 2021

This study reviews theoretical considerations and past studies about real estate prices, macroeconomic variables, and real estate policies. Monthly data from January 2003 to June 2021 are used, and a VEC model, the most widely used multivariate time series analysis method, is employed for analysis. Through the model, the effects of macroeconomic variables and real estate regulatory policies on real estate prices in Seoul are analyzed. Findings are summarized as follows. First, macroeconomic variables such as money supply and interest rates do not have a significant impact on Seoul's apartment prices. Due to the high demand for housing and insufficient supply, there is a demand for buying a home regardless of macroeconomic booms or recessions. Second, tax and financial regulatory policies have an initial impact on the rise in apartment prices in Seoul, and their influence diminishes over time. Third, anti-speculation zones are expected to decrease apartment prices through the suppression of demand. However, these zones cause a rise in apartment prices. This could be understood as a lock-in effect due to the strengthening of capital gains tax. Fourth, the price ceiling did not decrease apartment prices. These findings propose that, in Seoul, where demand is high and supply is insufficient, the supply of high-quality and sufficient housing should be prioritized over various regulations such as tax regulations, financial regulations, anti-speculation zones, and price caps. Moreover, the findings provide an implication that city-specific real estate policies should be implemented for Seoul rather than regulation-oriented approaches in public policy.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.10
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• pp.297-303
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• 2021

The performance of the retail industry in a country, which simultaneously reflects the demand for retail space, is significantly influenced by the macroeconomic environment of said country. However, in the case of Malaysia, studies regarding this issue are limited. Therefore, this paper aims to identify the macroeconomic determinants of the demand for retail space in shopping centers in Malaysia through the study of six variables: per capita income, private expenditure, inflation rate, interest rate, total population, and the number of tourists arrival. The nexus between these variables and the demand for retail space in shopping centers were examined by cointegration and causality tests, and regression analysis using quarterly data for the period 1993Q1 to 2016Q4. The results from bivariate cointegration tests indicate that inflation rate, interest rates, population size, and the number of tourists arrival have significant long-run relationships with the demand for retail space of Malaysian shopping centers. Meanwhile, the Granger causality tests show that only population size can cause the demand for shopping centers' retail space. Finally, the results from the regression analysis revealed that income per capita, private expenditure, interest rates, and population are the variables that significantly influence the demand for the retail space of the Malaysian shopping centers.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.74-83
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• 2017

The recently introduced public rental housing REITs was just different the business structure from the existing public rental housing system and the basic supply system is the same. So the ownership conversion for public house over 10 years rental duration is possible after half of the obligated rental duration according to the agreement between lessor and lessee. However rental business operators are likely to have a negative attitude to the early ownership conversion because of less expected profit. Thus, there is a need for an analysis of proper early ownership conversion moment that can achieve public purposes while ensuring the profitability of public rental housing REITs. In this study, the characteristics of the ownership conversion rights that can lessee to exercise considered to be options. Also the nature of 'REITs', 'public rental housing REITs' is considered to be affected by the macroeconomic variables. Thus, this study analyzed the value for ownership conversion in the public rental housing REITs according to real option scenarios reflecting macroeconomic variables. As a result, according to the change of the variation rate of the macroeconomic variables, it was found that with adjustable early ownership conversion time using the DCF(Discounted Cash Flow) model. Therefore, it is possible to ensure profitability of early ownership conversion by predicting the variation of variables.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.23 no.3
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• pp.118-137
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• 2019

Purpose - As global trade disputes intensify and global trade uncertainty increases due to the prevailing trade protectionism all over the world, mega-FTAs such as the RCEP and CPTPP are suggested as strategic trade policy options for export-driven small open economies, such as Korea. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of Korea's mega-FTA participation and the induced implications for the Korean economy. Design/methodology - We use a multi-region, multi-sector global CGE model, and investigate the different effects of both the US-China and US-EU trade wars on the relative changes in GDP, welfare, and trade under different trade policy regimes; (i) Korea does not participate in any mega-FTA, (ii) Korea participates in the RCEP, and (iii) Korea participates in the CPTPP. Findings - We show, among others, that though industrial effects might be largely varied, the overall enlarging of free trade zones through multilateral mega-FTA participation may contribute significantly to the macroeconomic soundness and stability of Korea, even when global trade protectionism prevails. Under RCEP and CPTPP trade regimes, Korea's GDP may increase even when the global trade environment deteriorates as trade wars occur and intensify between the US and China, or between the US and EU. It is also estimated that RCEP participation increases Korea's GDP, welfare (measured in equivalent variation), and total trade by 1.12%, $1.09 billion, and 2.54%, respectively, while CPTPP participation increases them by 0.19%, $0.92 billion, and 0.13%, respectively. Originality/value - Existing studies usually focus on the direct impacts of mega-FTA participation on macroeconomic variables such as GDP, welfare, and trade, and do not consider the possible buffer effects of a mega-FTA when the global trade environment worsens. In this paper, we analyze and quantify not only the direct impacts of RCEP and CPTPP on the main macroeconomic variables but also the possible buffer effects of the RCEP and CPTPP in the cases of the US-China and US-EU trade wars.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.201-211
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• 2021

This study aims to analyze the determinants of macroeconomic and institutional stability on the development of the global sukuk market by controlling the effects of population. This study uses panel data namely GDP per-capita, exchange rate, and inflation as the proxies for macroeconomic stability sourced from the World Development Index, and six dimensions of Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) as institutional proxies sourced from WGI-World Bank. To make robust the relationship between macroeconomics and institutional on the global sukuk market, the population (POP) variable was included as a control variable. The development of sukuk uses a proxy for sukuk issuance in the International Islamic Financial Market, for the annual period from 2002-2017. The data was analyzed using the General Method of Moment, and the results show that by controlling the population effects that proved to be significant, GDP per-capita and the rule of law have a significant impact on the development of sukuk, especially when incorporating population effects as control variables, whereby further ascertaining the effect of each macroeconomic-stability variable and institutional stability on sukuk development, especially inflation, found not to affect sukuk development. These results also confirm the previous findings, whereby inflation remains controllable at a certain level for economic development.

• Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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• 2006.04a
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• pp.471-484
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• 2006

The focus of analysis is effect on Non-electrical Machinery and Equipment of Macroeconomic variables through long-term and short-term periods. Also, this paper is related with implication on steady growth possibility of Non-electrical Machinery and Equipment. The period of variables is from 1985 to April in 2005. In case of not-available data is treated as missing figures. As spatial scope, these data are Non-electrical Machinery and Equipment on the basis of KSIC. In case of items, it composes MTI 1&3 digit of Korea International Trade Association (KITA), on the basis of HSK & classification of Korea Machinery industries. According to Granger causality test, yield of Cooperate Bond and export amount of Machinery have a meaning at statistical Confidence level of 10%. In case of index of the unit cost of export and export amount of Machinery, they have an interactive Granger cause. In yen dollar exchange rate and export amount of Machinery, former variable gives an unilateral Granger cause to latter that.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.28 no.6
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• pp.1471-1479
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• 2017

The variability of trade price index of apartment influences on the various aspect, especially economics, social phenomenon, industry, and culture of the country. In this article, the autoregressive error (ARE) model has been considered for analyzing the monthly trading price index of apartment data. About 16 years of the monthly data have been used from September 2001 to May 2017. In the ARE model, six macroeconomic variables are used as the explanatory variables for the rade price index of apartment. The six explanatory variables are mortgage rate, oil import price index, consumer price index, KOSPI stock index, GDP, and GNI. The result has shown that trading price index of apartment explained about 76% by the mortgage rate, and KOSPI stock index.