• Title/Summary/Keyword: MSE for prediction

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A computational estimation model for the subgrade reaction modulus of soil improved with DCM columns

  • Dehghanbanadaki, Ali;Rashid, Ahmad Safuan A.;Ahmad, Kamarudin;Yunus, Nor Zurairahetty Mohd;Said, Khairun Nissa Mat
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.385-396
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    • 2022
  • The accurate determination of the subgrade reaction modulus (Ks) of soil is an important factor for geotechnical engineers. This study estimated the Ks of soft soil improved with floating deep cement mixing (DCM) columns. A novel prediction model was developed that emphasizes the accuracy of identifying the most significant parameters of Ks. Several multi-layer perceptron (MLP) models that were trained using the Levenberg Marquardt (LM) backpropagation method were developed to estimate Ks. The models were trained using a reliable database containing the results of 36 physical modelling tests. The input parameters were the undrained shear strength of the DCM columns, undrained shear strength of soft soil, area improvement ratio and length-to-diameter ratio of the DCM columns. Grey wolf optimization (GWO) was coupled with the MLPs to improve the performance indices of the MLPs. Sensitivity tests were carried out to determine the importance of the input parameters for prediction of Ks. The results showed that both the MLP-LM and MLP-GWO methods showed high ability to predict Ks. However, it was shown that MLP-GWO (R = 0.9917, MSE = 0.28 (MN/m2/m)) performed better than MLP-LM (R =0.9126, MSE =6.1916 (MN/m2/m)). This proves the greater reliability of the proposed hybrid model of MLP-GWO in approximating the subgrade reaction modulus of soft soil improved with floating DCM columns. The results revealed that the undrained shear strength of the soil was the most effective factor for estimation of Ks.

Prediction of Chest Deflection Using Frontal Impact Test Results and Deep Learning Model (정면충돌 시험결과와 딥러닝 모델을 이용한 흉부변형량의 예측)

  • Kwon-Hee Lee;Jaemoon Lim
    • Journal of Auto-vehicle Safety Association
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.55-62
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    • 2023
  • In this study, a chest deflection is predicted by introducing a deep learning technique with the results of the frontal impact of the USNCAP conducted for 110 car models from MY2018 to MY2020. The 120 data are divided into training data and test data, and the training data is divided into training data and validation data to determine the hyperparameters. In this process, the deceleration data of each vehicle is averaged in units of 10 ms from crash pulses measured up to 100 ms. The performance of the deep learning model is measured by the indices of the mean squared error and the mean absolute error on the test data. A DNN (Deep Neural Network) model can give different predictions for the same hyperparameter values at every run. Considering this, the mean and standard deviation of the MSE (Mean Squared Error) and the MAE (Mean Absolute Error) are calculated. In addition, the deep learning model performance according to the inclusion of CVW (Curb Vehicle Weight) is also reviewed.

Performance Comparison of LSTM-Based Groundwater Level Prediction Model Using Savitzky-Golay Filter and Differential Method (Savitzky-Golay 필터와 미분을 활용한 LSTM 기반 지하수 수위 예측 모델의 성능 비교)

  • Keun-San Song;Young-Jin Song
    • Journal of the Semiconductor & Display Technology
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.84-89
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    • 2023
  • In water resource management, data prediction is performed using artificial intelligence, and companies, governments, and institutions continue to attempt to efficiently manage resources through this. LSTM is a model specialized for processing time series data, which can identify data patterns that change over time and has been attempted to predict groundwater level data. However, groundwater level data can cause sen-sor errors, missing values, or outliers, and these problems can degrade the performance of the LSTM model, and there is a need to improve data quality by processing them in the pretreatment stage. Therefore, in pre-dicting groundwater data, we will compare the LSTM model with the MSE and the model after normaliza-tion through distribution, and discuss the important process of analysis and data preprocessing according to the comparison results and changes in the results.

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A study on applying random forest and gradient boosting algorithm for Chl-a prediction of Daecheong lake (대청호 Chl-a 예측을 위한 random forest와 gradient boosting 알고리즘 적용 연구)

  • Lee, Sang-Min;Kim, Il-Kyu
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.35 no.6
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    • pp.507-516
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    • 2021
  • In this study, the machine learning which has been widely used in prediction algorithms recently was used. the research point was the CD(chudong) point which was a representative point of Daecheong Lake. Chlorophyll-a(Chl-a) concentration was used as a target variable for algae prediction. to predict the Chl-a concentration, a data set of water quality and quantity factors was consisted. we performed algorithms about random forest and gradient boosting with Python. to perform the algorithms, at first the correlation analysis between Chl-a and water quality and quantity data was studied. we extracted ten factors of high importance for water quality and quantity data. as a result of the algorithm performance index, the gradient boosting showed that RMSE was 2.72 mg/m3 and MSE was 7.40 mg/m3 and R2 was 0.66. as a result of the residual analysis, the analysis result of gradient boosting was excellent. as a result of the algorithm execution, the gradient boosting algorithm was excellent. the gradient boosting algorithm was also excellent with 2.44 mg/m3 of RMSE in the machine learning hyperparameter adjustment result.

Development of Prediction Model of Chloride Diffusion Coefficient using Machine Learning (기계학습을 이용한 염화물 확산계수 예측모델 개발)

  • Kim, Hyun-Su
    • Journal of Korean Association for Spatial Structures
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.87-94
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    • 2023
  • Chloride is one of the most common threats to reinforced concrete (RC) durability. Alkaline environment of concrete makes a passive layer on the surface of reinforcement bars that prevents the bar from corrosion. However, when the chloride concentration amount at the reinforcement bar reaches a certain level, deterioration of the passive protection layer occurs, causing corrosion and ultimately reducing the structure's safety and durability. Therefore, understanding the chloride diffusion and its prediction are important to evaluate the safety and durability of RC structure. In this study, the chloride diffusion coefficient is predicted by machine learning techniques. Various machine learning techniques such as multiple linear regression, decision tree, random forest, support vector machine, artificial neural networks, extreme gradient boosting annd k-nearest neighbor were used and accuracy of there models were compared. In order to evaluate the accuracy, root mean square error (RMSE), mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and coefficient of determination (R2) were used as prediction performance indices. The k-fold cross-validation procedure was used to estimate the performance of machine learning models when making predictions on data not used during training. Grid search was applied to hyperparameter optimization. It has been shown from numerical simulation that ensemble learning methods such as random forest and extreme gradient boosting successfully predicted the chloride diffusion coefficient and artificial neural networks also provided accurate result.

Prediction of Wave Transmission Characteristics of Low Crested Structures Using Artificial Neural Network

  • Kim, Taeyoon;Lee, Woo-Dong;Kwon, Yongju;Kim, Jongyeong;Kang, Byeonggug;Kwon, Soonchul
    • Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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    • v.36 no.5
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    • pp.313-325
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    • 2022
  • Recently around the world, coastal erosion is paying attention as a social issue. Various constructions using low-crested and submerged structures are being performed to deal with the problems. In addition, a prediction study was researched using machine learning techniques to determine the wave attenuation characteristics of low crested structure to develop prediction matrix for wave attenuation coefficient prediction matrix consisting of weights and biases for ease access of engineers. In this study, a deep neural network model was constructed to predict the wave height transmission rate of low crested structures using Tensor flow, an open source platform. The neural network model shows a reliable prediction performance and is expected to be applied to a wide range of practical application in the field of coastal engineering. As a result of predicting the wave height transmission coefficient of the low crested structure depends on various input variable combinations, the combination of 5 condition showed relatively high accuracy with a small number of input variables defined as 0.961. In terms of the time cost of the model, it is considered that the method using the combination 5 conditions can be a good alternative. As a result of predicting the wave transmission rate of the trained deep neural network model, MSE was 1.3×10-3, I was 0.995, SI was 0.078, and I was 0.979, which have very good prediction accuracy. It is judged that the proposed model can be used as a design tool by engineers and scientists to predict the wave transmission coefficient behind the low crested structure.

Prediction Model on Delivery Time in Display FAB Using Survival Analysis (생존분석을 이용한 디스플레이 FAB의 반송시간 예측모형)

  • Han, Paul;Baek, Jun Geol
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.40 no.3
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    • pp.283-290
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    • 2014
  • In the flat panel display industry, to meet production target quantities and the deadline of production, the scheduler and dispatching systems are major production management systems which control the order of facility production and the distribution of WIP (Work In Process). Especially the delivery time is a key factor of the dispatching system for the time when a lot can be supplied to the facility. In this paper, we use survival analysis methods to identify main factors of the delivery time and to build the delivery time forecasting model. To select important explanatory variables, the cox proportional hazard model is used to. To make a prediction model, the accelerated failure time (AFT) model was used. Performance comparisons were conducted with two other models, which are the technical statistics model based on transfer history and the linear regression model using same explanatory variables with AFT model. As a result, the mean square error (MSE) criteria, the AFT model decreased by 33.8% compared to the statistics prediction model, decreased by 5.3% compared to the linear regression model. This survival analysis approach is applicable to implementing the delivery time estimator in display manufacturing. And it can contribute to improve the productivity and reliability of production management system.

A Study on the Establishment of Odor Management System in Gangwon-do Traditional Market

  • Min-Jae JUNG;Kwang-Yeol YOON;Sang-Rul KIM;Su-Hye KIM
    • Journal of Wellbeing Management and Applied Psychology
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.27-31
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    • 2023
  • Purpose: Establishment of a real-time monitoring system for odor control in traditional markets in Gangwon-do and a system for linking prevention facilities. Research design, data and methodology: Build server and system logic based on data through real-time monitoring device (sensor-based). A temporary data generation program for deep learning is developed to develop a model for odor data. Results: A REST API was developed for using the model prediction service, and a test was performed to find an algorithm with high prediction probability and parameter values optimized for learning. In the deep learning algorithm for AI modeling development, Pandas was used for data analysis and processing, and TensorFlow V2 (keras) was used as the deep learning library. The activation function was swish, the performance of the model was optimized for Adam, the performance was measured with MSE, the model method was Functional API, and the model storage format was Sequential API (LSTM)/HDF5. Conclusions: The developed system has the potential to effectively monitor and manage odors in traditional markets. By utilizing real-time data, the system can provide timely alerts and facilitate preventive measures to control and mitigate odors. The AI modeling component enhances the system's predictive capabilities, allowing for proactive odor management.

A New Approach to Load Shedding Prediction in GECOL Using Deep Learning Neural Network

  • Abusida, Ashraf Mohammed;Hancerliogullari, Aybaba
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.220-228
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    • 2022
  • The directed tests produce an expectation model to assist the organization's heads and professionals with settling on the right and speedy choice. A directed deep learning strategy has been embraced and applied for SCADA information. In this paper, for the load shedding expectation overall power organization of Libya, a convolutional neural network with multi neurons is utilized. For contributions of the neural organization, eight convolutional layers are utilized. These boundaries are power age, temperature, stickiness and wind speed. The gathered information from the SCADA data set were pre-handled to be ready in a reasonable arrangement to be taken care of to the deep learning. A bunch of analyses has been directed on this information to get a forecast model. The created model was assessed as far as precision and decrease of misfortune. It tends to be presumed that the acquired outcomes are promising and empowering. For assessment of the outcomes four boundary, MSE, RMSE, MAPE and R2 are determined. The best R2 esteem is gotten for 1-overlap and it was 0.98.34 for train information and for test information is acquired 0.96. Additionally for train information the RMSE esteem in 1-overlap is superior to different Folds and this worth was 0.018.

AutoML and Artificial Neural Network Modeling of Process Dynamics of LNG Regasification Using Seawater (해수 이용 LNG 재기화 공정의 딥러닝과 AutoML을 이용한 동적모델링)

  • Shin, Yongbeom;Yoo, Sangwoo;Kwak, Dongho;Lee, Nagyeong;Shin, Dongil
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.59 no.2
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    • pp.209-218
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    • 2021
  • First principle-based modeling studies have been performed to improve the heat exchange efficiency of ORV and optimize operation, but the heat transfer coefficient of ORV is an irregular system according to time and location, and it undergoes a complex modeling process. In this study, FNN, LSTM, and AutoML-based modeling were performed to confirm the effectiveness of data-based modeling for complex systems. The prediction accuracy indicated high performance in the order of LSTM > AutoML > FNN in MSE. The performance of AutoML, an automatic design method for machine learning models, was superior to developed FNN, and the total time required for model development was 1/15 compared to LSTM, showing the possibility of using AutoML. The prediction of NG and seawater discharged temperatures using LSTM and AutoML showed an error of less than 0.5K. Using the predictive model, real-time optimization of the amount of LNG vaporized that can be processed using ORV in winter is performed, confirming that up to 23.5% of LNG can be additionally processed, and an ORV optimal operation guideline based on the developed dynamic prediction model was presented.