• Title/Summary/Keyword: Lotka-Volterra

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Forecasting Next Generation Technology Using Lotka-Volterra Competition Model and Factors for Technology Substitution (기술대체 영향요인과 Lotka-Volterra 경쟁 모형을 이용한 차세대 기술 예측)

  • Kim, Hyein;Jeong, Yujin;Yoon, Byungun
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.1262-1287
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    • 2017
  • Recently, forecasting for next-generation technologies have influenced the competitiveness of companies. However, in previous studies, only extract factors influencing the adoption of technology have been investigated. Also, there are few researches on the importance of each decision factors or the competition between technologies. In this research, Lotka-Volterra model is used to confirm the technological competition in the new technology choice timing when the competition is intensified due to the emergence of new technologies. For purpose of this study, estimate the LVC model based on the data of the past competition and then derived the factors affecting the technology of competition and substitution from the literature survey. After that, we confirmed the factor value between the past and the present technology competition. The difference between the factor values derived from the previous step is used to revise the model estimated from the past data base. At this stage, regression analysis is used to derive the importance of each factor and use it as the weight. Through the correction model, the competitiveness is identified through 1:1 comparison with competition candidate technology and existing dominant design technology. In this research, we quantitatively propose the possibility that a specific technology can become a dominant design in the next generation, based on the difference in factor values and importance. This results will help the company's R&D strategy and decision making.

A Study on Forecasting the Demand of WCDMA Mobile Phones (WCDMA 이동통신 단말기 수요예측에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Sang-Hoon;Lee, Byoung-Chul;Kim, Yun-Bae;Kim, Jae-Bum
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.153-160
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    • 2006
  • The demand of domestic mobile service has been explosively increasing. The forthcoming WCDMA, which open in 2006, is also a key technology in the mobile service market. The WCDMA service needs HSPDA phones which will be evolved to HSDPA. In the aspect of drawing up management strategy, practical researches about forecasting the demands of new mobile phones are necessary. In this paper, we provide the modified the Lotka-volterra model as a forecasting model, which is concerned with effects of phone prices and performance.

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Permanence of a Three-species Food Chain System with Impulsive Perturbations

  • Baek, Hunki;Lee, Hung-Hwan
    • Kyungpook Mathematical Journal
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    • v.48 no.3
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    • pp.503-514
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    • 2008
  • We investigate a three-species food chain system with Lotka-Volterra functional response and impulsive perturbations. In [23], Zhang and Chen have studied the system. They have given conditions for extinction of lowest-level prey and top predator and considered the local stability of lower-level prey and top predator eradication periodic solution. However, they did not give a condition for permanence, which is one of important facts in population dynamics. In this paper, we establish the condition for permanence of the three-species food chain system with impulsive perturbations. In addition, we give some numerical examples.

Forecasting Model of Container Transshipment Traffic Volume in Northeast Asia (동북아시아 환적물동량 예측모델 연구)

  • Lee, Byoung-Chul;Kim, Yun-Bae
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.297-303
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    • 2011
  • Major ports in Northeastern Asia engage in fierce competition to attract transshipment traffic volume. Existing time series analyses for analyzing port competition relationships examine the types of competition and relations through the signs of coefficients in cointegration equations using the transshipment traffic volume results. However, there are cases for which analyzing competing relationships is not possible based on the results of the transshipment traffic volume data differences and limitations in the forecasting of traffic volume. Accordingly, we used the Lotka-Volterra (L-V) model,also known as the ecosystem competitive relation model, to analyze port competition relations for the long-term forecast of South Korean transshipment traffic volume.

Researches in 1900's on cooperative population dynamics (협력형 개체 수 동역학에 대한 1900년대 연구)

  • Chang, Jeongwook;Shim, Seong-A
    • Journal for History of Mathematics
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.167-177
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    • 2020
  • Cooperative behavior may seem contrary to the notion of natural selection and adaptation, but is widely observed in nature, from the genetic level to the organism. The origin and persistence of cooperative behavior has long been a mystery to scientists studying evolution and ecology. One of the important research topics in the field of evolutionary ecology and behavioral ecology is to find out why cooperation is maintained over time. In this paper we take a historical overview of mathematical models representing cooperative relationships from the perspective of mathematical biology, which studies population dynamics between interacting biological groups, and analyze the mathematical characteristics and meanings of these cooperative models.

Comparison of a Microbiological Model Simulation with Microcosm Data

  • Lee, Jae-Young;Tett, Paul;Jones, Ken
    • Journal of the korean society of oceanography
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.222-233
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    • 2004
  • Using nitrogen as the limiting nutrient, the default version of a microplankton-detritus model linked chlorophyll concentration to the autotroph nitrogen. However, phosphorus dynamics were added to simulate the results of a microcosm experiment. Using standard parameter values with a single value of microheterotroph fraction in the microplankton taken from the observed range, the best simulation successfully captured the main features of the time-courses of chlorophyll and particulate organic carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus, with root-mean-square error equivalent to 29% of particulate concentration. A standard version of microbiological model assumes complete internal cycling of nutrient elements; adding a term for ammonium and phosphate excretion by microheterotrophs did not significantly improve predictions. Relaxing the requirement for constant microheterotroph fraction resulted in an autotroph-heterotroph model AH, with dynamics resembling those of a Lotka-Volterra predator-prey system. AH fitted the microcosm data worse than did MP, justifying the suppression of Lotka-Volterra dynamics in MP. The paper concludes with a discussion of possible reasons for the success of the simple bulk dynamics of MP in simulating microplankton behaviour.

A Nonlinear Theory for the Lotka-Volterra Model with an External lnput

  • Mino Yang;Sangyoub Lee;Seong Keun Kim;Kook Joe Shin;Moon Hee Ryu;Song Hi Lee;Dong J. Lee
    • Bulletin of the Korean Chemical Society
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    • v.13 no.5
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    • pp.560-565
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    • 1992
  • A new perturbation theory called the star expansion method is used to obtain an approximate nonlinear solution of the Lotka-Volterra model under the influence of some kinds of external input. The effects of nonlinearity, amplitude and frequency of the external input on the chemical oscillations in the model are evaluated by taking specific values for the model parameters, and the results are discussed in detail.

Forecasting of ADSL vs VDSL; by Using Lotka-Volterra Competition (LVC) Model

  • Cho, Byung-sun;Cho, Sang-Sup
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.213-227
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    • 2003
  • 초고속 인터넷 서비스는 사용자수의 증가와 더불어 고객의 다양한 욕구 즉 인터넷 방송, 주문형비디오(VOD)서비스, 원격교육, 고화질 TV 등 대용량의 멀티미디어 서비스에 대한 욕구가 폭발적으로 증가하고 있다. 이러한 욕구를 충족하기 위해서는 현재의 초고속 인터넷서비스로서는 속도에 대한 한계에 부딪치게 되어 통신사업자들은 새로운 기술 또는 여러 가지 기술적 대안들을 추구하고 있다. 2002년부터 시작하여 2003년 이후에는 멀티미디어 수요의 증가에 따라 ADSL을 대체하는 기술로 VDSL이 등장하여 매년 꾸준한 신규가입자 수요가 발생하고 있으나, 통신사업자들은 각각의 망 특성, 시장위치, 전략적 필요성 둥에 의해 상용화를 적극 검토,추진하고 있으나 각각 전개하는 방식은 조금씩 다르다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 통신사업자들의 가입자망 진화 전략에 대해 살펴 본 다음 Lot3n-Volterra Competition (LVC) 모델을 이용 ADSL 과 VDSL 두 기술간의 상호 경쟁 및 대체를 통해 어떻게 진화 되어가는지를 살펴보았다. 대표적인 통신사업자인 KT는 막강한 자금력을 바탕으로 시장 확대 및 경쟁사와의 차별화를 위해 VDSL 서비스 조기도입을 서두르고 있고, 하나로는 자금의 열세로 인한 ADSL 투자비를 회수 할때까지 VDSL 서비스를 연기하고 있는 실정이다. ADSL과 VDSL 두 기술의 관계는 Lotka-Volterra Competition (LVC) 모델을 이용한 시뮬레이션 결과를 통해 빠른 속도와 비슷한 가격대의 VDSL이 침략자(predator)로 기존 시장 지배자인 ADSL을 사냥감(prey)으로 빠른 속도로 대체해 나가는 것을 알 수 있었다.

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An estimation method for stochastic reaction model (확률적 방법에 기반한 화학 반응 모형의 모수 추정 방법)

  • Choi, Boseung
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.813-826
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    • 2015
  • This research deals with an estimation method for kinetic reaction model. The kinetic reaction model is a model to explain spread or changing process based on interaction between species on the Biochemical area. This model can be applied to a model for disease spreading as well as a model for system Biology. In the search, we assumed that the spread of species is stochastic and we construct the reaction model based on stochastic movement. We utilized Gillespie algorithm in order to construct likelihood function. We introduced a Bayesian estimation method using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods that produces more stable results. We applied the Bayesian estimation method to the Lotka-Volterra model and gene transcription model and had more stable estimation results.

Competition and Cooperation Dynamics between Gwangyang Port and Major Container Ports in Northeast Asia (광양항과 동북아 주요 컨테이너항만간 경협 추세분석)

  • Park, Byung-In
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.85-101
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    • 2015
  • This study formulates a development strategy for Gwangyang port through the analysis of its competition with other major Northeast Asian ports. A revised BCG matrix is applied to estimate the change in competition between the major ports in Northeast Asia and the Lotka-Volterra model is used for the competitor analysis. The growing competitive power and influence of Chinese ports, continued competitive advantage of Busan port, diminishing competitiveness of Gwangyang and Incheon ports, and disappearing competitive position of Japanese ports in Northeast Asia are all confirmed. In addition, according to the relationship between Gwangyang port and other major Northeast Asian ports from 2007 to 2014, Gwangyang port has changed to a predatory from a win/win relation with Busan port and has maintained its predatory relationship with Hong Kong port in terms of transshipment cargoes. Moreover, Gwangyang port has formed predatory relationships with Shanghai and Ningbo ports, a pure competitive relation with Tianjin port, and a win/win relation with Qingdao and Dalian ports. Overall, predatory relationships between Gwangyang port and other Northeast Asia ports increased from 2007 to 2014. The counterstrategies for Gwangyang port to address this situation include establishing cooperative relations and continuing the win/win relationships with cooperative ports.