• Title/Summary/Keyword: Loss Models

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Classify and Quantify Cumulative Impact of Change Orders On Productivity Using ANN Models

  • Lee, Min-Jae
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.6 no.5 s.27
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    • pp.69-77
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    • 2005
  • Change is inevitable and is a reality of construction projects. Most construction contracts include change clauses and allowing contractors an equitable adjustment to the contract price and duration caused by change. However, the actions of a contractor can cause a loss of productivity and furthermore can result in disruption of the whole project because of a cumulative or ripple effect. Because of its complicated nature, it becomes a complex issue to determine the cumulative impact (ripple effect) caused by single or multiple change orders. Furthermore, owners and contractors do not always agree on the adjusted contract price for the cumulative Impact of the changes. A number of studies have attempted to quantify the impact of change orders on project costs and schedule. Many of these attempted to develop regression models to quantify the loss. However, regression analysis has shortcomings in dealing with many qualitative or noisy input data. This study develops ANN models to classify and quantify the labor productivity losses that are caused by the cumulative impact of change orders. The results skew that ANN models give significantly improved performance compared to traditional statistical models.

RECENT UPDATES TO NRC FUEL PERFORMANCE CODES AND PLANS FOR FUTURE IMPROVEMENTS

  • Geelhood, Kenneth
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.43 no.6
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    • pp.509-522
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    • 2011
  • FRAPCON-3.4a and FRAPTRAN 1.4 are the most recent versions of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) steady-state and transient fuel performance codes, respectively. These codes have been assessed against separate effects data and integral assessment data and have been determined to provide a best estimate calculation of fuel performance. Recent updates included in FRAPCON-3.4a include updated material properties models, models for new fuel and cladding types, cladding finite element analysis capability, and capability to perform uncertainty analyses and calculate upper tolerance limits for important outputs. Recent updates included in FRAPTRAN 1.4 include: material properties models that are consistent with FRAPCON-3.4a, cladding failure models that are applicable for loss-of coolant-accident and reactivity initiated accident modeling, and updated heat transfer models. This paper briefly describes these code updates and data assessments, highlighting the particularly important improvements and data assessments. This paper also discusses areas of improvements that will be addressed in upcoming code versions.

Fragility-based rapid earthquake loss assessment of precast RC buildings in the Marmara region

  • Ali Yesilyurt;Oguzhan Cetindemir;Seyhan O. Akcan;Abdullah C. Zulfikar
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.88 no.1
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    • pp.13-23
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    • 2023
  • Seismic risk assessment studies are one of the most crucial instruments for mitigating casualties and economic losses. This work utilizes fragility curves to evaluate the seismic risk of single-story precast buildings, which are generally favored in Marmara's organized industrial zones. First, the precast building stock in the region has been categorized into nine sub-classes. Then, seven locations in the Marmara region with a high concentration of industrial activities are considered. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessments were conducted for both the soil-dependent and soil-independent scenarios. Subsequently, damage analysis was performed based on the structural capacity and mean fragility curves. Considering four different consequence models, 630 sub-class-specific loss curves for buildings were obtained. In the current study, it has been determined that the consequence model has a significant impact on the loss curves, hence, average loss curves were computed for each case investigated. In light of the acquired results, it was found that the loss ratio values obtained at different locations within the same region show significant variation. In addition, it was observed that the structural damage states change from serviceable to repairable or repairable to unrepairable. Within the scope of the study, 126 average loss functions were presented that could be easily used by non-experts in earthquake engineering, regardless of structural analysis. These functions, which offer loss ratios for varying hazard levels, are valuable outputs that allow preliminary risk assessment in the region and yield sensible outcomes for insurance activities.

Analysis of Rainfall-Runoff Characteristic at Mountainous Watershed Using GeoWEPP and SWAT Model (GeoWEPP과 SWAT 모델을 이용한 산지 유역 강우-유출량 특성 분석)

  • Kim, Jisu;Kim, Minseok;Kim, Jin Kwan;Oh, Hyun-Joo;Woo, Choongshik
    • Journal of The Geomorphological Association of Korea
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.31-44
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    • 2021
  • Due to recent climate change, continuous soil loss is occurring in the mountainous watershed. The development of geographic information systems allows the spatial simulation of soil loss through hydrological models, but more researches applied to the mountain watershed areas in Korea are needed. In this study, prior to simulating the soil loss characteristics of the mountainous watershed, the field monitoring and the SWAT and GeoWEPP models were used to simulate and analyze the rainfall and runoff characteristics in the mountainous watershed area of Jirisan National Park. As a result of monitoring, runoff showed a characteristic of a rapid response as rainfall increased and decreased. In the simulation runoff results of calibrated SWAT models, R2, RMSE and NSE was 0.95, 0.03, and 0.95, respectively. The runoff simulation results of the GeoWEPP model were evaluated as 0.89, 0.30, and 0.83 for R2, RMSE, and NSE, respectively. These results, therefore, imply that the runoff simulated through SWAT and GeoWEPP models can be used to simulate soil loss. However, the results of the two models differ from the parameters and base flow of actual main channel, and further consideration is required to increase the model's accuracy.

End-to-End Quality of Service Constrained Routing and Admission Control for MPLS Networks

  • Oulai, Desire;Chamberland, Steven;Pierre, Samuel
    • Journal of Communications and Networks
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.297-305
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    • 2009
  • Multiprotocol label switching (MPLS) networks require dynamic flow admission control to guarantee end-to-end quality of service (QoS) for each Internet protocol (IP) traffic flow. In this paper, we propose to tackle the joint routing and admission control problem for the IP traffic flows in MPLS networks without rerouting already admitted flows. We propose two mathematical programming models for this problem. The first model includes end-to-end delay constraints and the second one, end-to-end packet loss constraints. These end-to-end QoS constraints are imposed not only for the new traffic flow, but also for all already admitted flows in the network. The objective function of both models is to minimize the end-to-end delay for the new flow. Numerical results show that considering end-to-end delay (or packet loss) constraints for all flows has a small impact on the flow blocking rate. Moreover, we reduces significantly the mean end-to-end delay (or the mean packet loss rate) and the proposed approach is able to make its decision within 250 msec.

Burning Characteristics of Wood-based Materials using Cone Calorimeter and Inclined Panel Tests

  • Park, Joo-Saeng;Lee, Jun-Jae
    • Journal of the Korean Wood Science and Technology
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    • v.30 no.3
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    • pp.18-25
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    • 2002
  • Research to discuss the fire performance of materials requires tools for measuring their burning characteristics and validated fire growth models to predict fire behavior of the materials under specific tire scenarios using the measured properties as input for the models. In this study, burning characteristics such as time to ignition, weight loss rate, flame spread, heat release rate, total heat evolved, and effective heat of combustion for four types of wood-based materials were evaluated using the cone calorimeter and inclined panel tests. Time to ignition was affected by not only surface condition and specific gravity of the tested materials but also the type and magnitude of heat source. Results of weight loss rate, measured by inclined panel tests, indicated that heat transfer from the contacted flame used as the heat source into the inner part of the specimen was inversely proportional to specific gravity of material. Flame spread was closely related with ignition time at the near part of burning zone. Under constant and severe external heat flux, there was little difference in weight loss rate and total heat evolved between four types of wood-based panels. More applied heat flux caused by longer ignition time induced a higher first peak value of heat release rate. Burning characteristics data measured in this study can be used effectively as input for fire growth models to predict the fire behavior of materials under specific fire scenarios.

Intensity measure-based probabilistic seismic evaluation and vulnerability assessment of ageing bridges

  • Yazdani, Mahdi;Jahangiri, Vahid
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.379-393
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study is to first evaluate the seismic behavior of ageing arch bridges by using the Intensity Measure - based demand and DCFD format, which is referred to as the fragility-hazard format. Then, an investigation is performed for their seismic vulnerability. Analytical models are created for bridges concerning different features and these models are subjected to Incremental Dynamic Analysis (IDA) analysis using a set of 22 earthquake records. The hazard curve and results of IDA analysis are employed to evaluate the return period of exceeding the limit states in the IM-based probabilistic performance-based context. Subsequently, the fragility-hazard format is used to assess factored demand, factored capacity, and the ratio of the factored demand to the factored capacity of the models with respect to different performance objectives. Finally, the vulnerability curves are obtained for the investigated bridges in terms of the loss ratio. The results revealed that decreasing the span length of the unreinforced arch bridges leads to the increase in the return period of exceeding various limit states and factored capacity and decrease in the displacement demand, the probability of failure, the factored demand, as well as the factored demand to factored capacity ratios, loss ratio, and seismic vulnerability. Finally, it is derived that the probability of the need for rehabilitation increases by an increase in the span length of the models.

Machine-Learning Based Optimal Design of A Large-leakage High-frequency Transformer for DAB Converters (누설 인덕턴스를 포함한 DAB 컨버터용 고주파 변압기의 머신러닝 활용한 최적 설계)

  • Eunchong, Noh;Kildong, Kim;Seung-Hwan, Lee
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Power Electronics
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.507-514
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    • 2022
  • This study proposes an optimal design process for a high-frequency transformer that has a large leakage inductance for dual-active-bridge converters. Notably, conventional design processes have large errors in designing leakage transformers because mathematically modeling the leakage inductance of such transformers is difficult. In this work, the geometric parameters of a shell-type transformer are identified, and finite element analysis(FEA) simulation is performed to determine the magnetization inductance, leakage inductance, and copper loss of various shapes of shell-type transformers. Regression models for magnetization and leakage inductances and copper loss are established using the simulation results and the machine learning technique. In addition, to improve the regression models' performance, the regression models are tuned by adding featured parameters that consider the physical characteristics of the transformer. With the regression models, optimal high-frequency transformer designs and the Pareto front (in terms of volume and loss) are determined using NSGA-II. In the Pareto front, a desirable optimal design is selected and verified by FEA simulation and experimentation. The simulated and measured leakage inductances of the selected design match well, and this result shows the validity of the proposed design process.

Analysis of Powertrain Efficiency for Input Split Type Hybrid Electric Vehicle considering Planetary-gear Efficiency (유성기어 효율을 고려한 입력분기 기반 하이브리드 전기자동차의 동력전달 효율 해석)

  • Kim, Jeongmin
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Automotive Engineers
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    • v.23 no.5
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    • pp.508-514
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    • 2015
  • In this paper, the powertrain efficiency is analyzed for the input split type hybrid electric vehicle. For considering the powertrain loss, the power loss models of planetary gear and motor are applied. And, the mathematic equations of powertrain speed and torque are found by using the lever analogy. With the above models and equations, the powertrain efficiency is analyzed for the 0 to 180 km/h vehicle velocity range. From the analysis results, it is found that the transmission efficiency with the power loss of planetary gear is smaller maximum 2.1% than the transmission efficiency without the power loss of planetary gear.

Theoretical Modeling of the Internal Power Flow and Absorption Loss of the Air Mode Based on the Proposed Poynting Vector Analysis in Top-emitting Organic Light-emitting Diodes

  • Kim, Jiyong;Kim, Jungho;Kim, Kyoung-Youm
    • Journal of the Korean Physical Society
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    • v.73 no.11
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    • pp.1663-1674
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    • 2018
  • We propose the Poynting vector analysis of the air mode in a top-emitting organic light-emitting diode (OLED) by combining the transfer matrix method and dipole source term. The spatial profiles of the time-averaged optical power flow of the air mode are calculated inside and outside the multilayer structure of the OLED with respect to the thickness of the semi-transparent top cathode and capping layer (CPL). We elucidate how the micro-cavity effect controlled by the thickness variation of the semi-transparent top cathode or CPL affects the internal optical power and absorption loss inside the OLED multilayer and the external optical power coupled into the air. When the calculated absorption loss and external power obtained by the proposed Poynting vector and currently-used point dipole models are compared, two calculation results are identical, which demonstrates the validity of the two models.