• Title/Summary/Keyword: Long-term strategy

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Data collection strategy for building rainfall-runoff LSTM model predicting daily runoff (강수-일유출량 추정 LSTM 모형의 구축을 위한 자료 수집 방안)

  • Kim, Dongkyun;Kang, Seokkoo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.10
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    • pp.795-805
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    • 2021
  • In this study, after developing an LSTM-based deep learning model for estimating daily runoff in the Soyang River Dam basin, the accuracy of the model for various combinations of model structure and input data was investigated. A model was built based on the database consisting of average daily precipitation, average daily temperature, average daily wind speed (input up to here), and daily average flow rate (output) during the first 12 years (1997.1.1-2008.12.31). The Nash-Sutcliffe Model Efficiency Coefficient (NSE) and RMSE were examined for validation using the flow discharge data of the later 12 years (2009.1.1-2020.12.31). The combination that showed the highest accuracy was the case in which all possible input data (12 years of daily precipitation, weather temperature, wind speed) were used on the LSTM model structure with 64 hidden units. The NSE and RMSE of the verification period were 0.862 and 76.8 m3/s, respectively. When the number of hidden units of LSTM exceeds 500, the performance degradation of the model due to overfitting begins to appear, and when the number of hidden units exceeds 1000, the overfitting problem becomes prominent. A model with very high performance (NSE=0.8~0.84) could be obtained when only 12 years of daily precipitation was used for model training. A model with reasonably high performance (NSE=0.63-0.85) when only one year of input data was used for model training. In particular, an accurate model (NSE=0.85) could be obtained if the one year of training data contains a wide magnitude of flow events such as extreme flow and droughts as well as normal events. If the training data includes both the normal and extreme flow rates, input data that is longer than 5 years did not significantly improve the model performance.

In-House Subcontracting and Industrial Relations in Japanes Steel Industry (일본 철강산업의 사내하청과 노사관계)

  • Oh, Haksoo
    • Korean Journal of Labor Studies
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.107-156
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    • 2018
  • This article examines the history of the in - house subcontracting and the stabilization of labor - management relations in the steel industry in Japan. The ratio of in-house subcontract workers among steel workers has increased steadily until the mid-2000s, and about 70% in case of the largest company. In-house subcontracting was used as a strategy of the company to increase the quantity flexibility of employment and to save labor costs. The in-house subcontracting company needed company-specialized skills, and the internal labor market was formed because the rate of full-time workers was high and the turnover rate was low. The in-house subcontractor introduced long-term business relationship with the steel factory by introducing the equipment and materials necessary for the performance of the work, and the factory implemented the productivity improvement policy of the in-house subcontractor, and the win-win relationship between the factory and in-house subcontractor was developed. The trade union did not oppose the idea that the expansion of in-house subcontracting contributed to corporate profits, the stability of employment of the members and maintenance of their working conditions. Since 2000, the steel factory has pursued the transformation of in - house subcontractors into subsidiaries, which has been supported by capital relations. By the way, since the mid-2000s, there has been an increase in the number of regular workers' employment. The major factors are as follows: more strengthened compliance with laws and regulations, the higher quality request of customers, stricter keeping of deadlines, and problem in recruiting of workers at in-house subcontract companies. The wage gap between the factory and in - house subcontracting was less at company B than at company S, and the wage level of in - house subcontracting was about 90% of the factory at company B. The relatively small gap at company B seems to be due to the union's movement of narrowing the gap, low market dominance and unfavorable labor market. The internal labor market has been formed in the in-house subcontracting, and the wage gap is not large, and the possibility of labor disputes is low. Industrial relations are stable in the in-house subcontract company as well as the factory. The stabilization of labor-management relations in the steel industry in Korea is required to reduce the wage gap between the factory and in-house subcontract enterprises by raising productivity and expanding the internal labor market at in-house subcontract enterprises.

Development Strategy for New Climate Change Scenarios based on RCP (온실가스 시나리오 RCP에 대한 새로운 기후변화 시나리오 개발 전략)

  • Baek, Hee-Jeong;Cho, ChunHo;Kwon, Won-Tae;Kim, Seong-Kyoun;Cho, Joo-Young;Kim, Yeongsin
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.55-68
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    • 2011
  • The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) has identified the causes of climate change and come up with measures to address it at the global level. Its key component of the work involves developing and assessing future climate change scenarios. The IPCC Expert Meeting in September 2007 identified a new greenhouse gas concentration scenario "Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP)" and established the framework and development schedules for Climate Modeling (CM), Integrated Assessment Modeling(IAM), Impact Adaptation Vulnerability(IAV) community for the fifth IPCC Assessment Reports while 130 researchers and users took part in. The CM community at the IPCC Expert Meeting in September 2008, agreed on a new set of coordinated climate model experiments, the phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5), which consists of more than 30 standardized experiment protocols for the shortterm and long-term time scales, in order to enhance understanding on climate change for the IPCC AR5 and to develop climate change scenarios and to address major issues raised at the IPCC AR4. Since early 2009, fourteen countries including the Korea have been carrying out CMIP5-related projects. Withe increasing interest on climate change, in 2009 the COdinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment(CORDEX) has been launched to generate regional and local level information on climate change. The National Institute of Meteorological Research(NIMR) under the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) has contributed to the IPCC AR4 by developing climate change scenarios based on IPCC SRES using ECHO-G and embarked on crafting national scenarios for climate change as well as RCP-based global ones by engaging in international projects such as CMIP5 and CORDEX. NIMR/KMA will make a contribution to drawing the IPCC AR5 and will develop national climate change scenarios reflecting geographical factors, local climate characteristics and user needs and provide them to national IAV and IAM communites to assess future regional climate impacts and take action.

Comparative Analysis of Fracture Angulation between Parallel Pinning and Plate Fixation Techniques in the Management of 5th Metacarpal Fractures (제 5 수지 중수골 골절에서 평행 핀 또는 플레이트 고정술 이후 골절각 변화에 대한 비교 연구)

  • Lee, Myungchul;Shin, Hyojung;Choi, Hyungon;Kim, Jeenam;Shin, Donghyeok
    • Archives of Hand and Microsurgery
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.230-238
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    • 2018
  • Purpose: Metacarpal fractures are common injuries of the hand. They are treated using closed reduction (CR) or open reduction (OR) techniques. The management strategy depends on fracture site characteristic and fixation methods. In this study, we evaluated pre- and postoperative fracture angulation, when metacarpal fractures bad been treated using two different techniques: CR with parallel transverse pinning and OR with plate fixation. Methods: Forty-six patients undergoing anatomic reduction to treat extra-articular metacarpal fractures were recruited. They were included in one of two therapeutic groups: Group 1, CR with parallel transverse pinning (n=21); Group 2, OR with plate fixation (n=25). Fracture angulation values have been measured on pre- and postoperative radiologic images. Values were compared between pre- and postoperative states, and between corresponding measurements of each group. Results: All extra-articular metacarpal fractures were successfully treated without wound related complications or the limit of joint motion. Both groups demonstrated adequate reduction at immediate postoperative period (postoperative angulation of group 1, $20^{\circ}{\pm}7^{\circ}$; group 2, $19^{\circ}{\pm}5^{\circ}$). During the observation at follow-up period, Group 1 exhibited slight recurrence (follow-up angulation of group 1, $24^{\circ}{\pm}10^{\circ}$). Nonetheless, Group 2 showed adequate reduction state in both immediate postoperative and long-term follow-up periods (follow-up angulation of group 2, $18^{\circ}{\pm}6^{\circ}$). Conclusion: Extra-articular metacarpal fractures were successfully restored without functional complications. CR with parallel transverse pinning method exhibited recurrence after pin removal, which necessitates cautious postoperative exercise and monitoring.

Prediction of a hit drama with a pattern analysis on early viewing ratings (초기 시청시간 패턴 분석을 통한 대흥행 드라마 예측)

  • Nam, Kihwan;Seong, Nohyoon
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.33-49
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    • 2018
  • The impact of TV Drama success on TV Rating and the channel promotion effectiveness is very high. The cultural and business impact has been also demonstrated through the Korean Wave. Therefore, the early prediction of the blockbuster success of TV Drama is very important from the strategic perspective of the media industry. Previous studies have tried to predict the audience ratings and success of drama based on various methods. However, most of the studies have made simple predictions using intuitive methods such as the main actor and time zone. These studies have limitations in predicting. In this study, we propose a model for predicting the popularity of drama by analyzing the customer's viewing pattern based on various theories. This is not only a theoretical contribution but also has a contribution from the practical point of view that can be used in actual broadcasting companies. In this study, we collected data of 280 TV mini-series dramas, broadcasted over the terrestrial channels for 10 years from 2003 to 2012. From the data, we selected the most highly ranked and the least highly ranked 45 TV drama and analyzed the viewing patterns of them by 11-step. The various assumptions and conditions for modeling are based on existing studies, or by the opinions of actual broadcasters and by data mining techniques. Then, we developed a prediction model by measuring the viewing-time distance (difference) using Euclidean and Correlation method, which is termed in our study similarity (the sum of distance). Through the similarity measure, we predicted the success of dramas from the viewer's initial viewing-time pattern distribution using 1~5 episodes. In order to confirm that the model is shaken according to the measurement method, various distance measurement methods were applied and the model was checked for its dryness. And when the model was established, we could make a more predictive model using a grid search. Furthermore, we classified the viewers who had watched TV drama more than 70% of the total airtime as the "passionate viewer" when a new drama is broadcasted. Then we compared the drama's passionate viewer percentage the most highly ranked and the least highly ranked dramas. So that we can determine the possibility of blockbuster TV mini-series. We find that the initial viewing-time pattern is the key factor for the prediction of blockbuster dramas. From our model, block-buster dramas were correctly classified with the 75.47% accuracy with the initial viewing-time pattern analysis. This paper shows high prediction rate while suggesting audience rating method different from existing ones. Currently, broadcasters rely heavily on some famous actors called so-called star systems, so they are in more severe competition than ever due to rising production costs of broadcasting programs, long-term recession, aggressive investment in comprehensive programming channels and large corporations. Everyone is in a financially difficult situation. The basic revenue model of these broadcasters is advertising, and the execution of advertising is based on audience rating as a basic index. In the drama, there is uncertainty in the drama market that it is difficult to forecast the demand due to the nature of the commodity, while the drama market has a high financial contribution in the success of various contents of the broadcasting company. Therefore, to minimize the risk of failure. Thus, by analyzing the distribution of the first-time viewing time, it can be a practical help to establish a response strategy (organization/ marketing/story change, etc.) of the related company. Also, in this paper, we found that the behavior of the audience is crucial to the success of the program. In this paper, we define TV viewing as a measure of how enthusiastically watching TV is watched. We can predict the success of the program successfully by calculating the loyalty of the customer with the hot blood. This way of calculating loyalty can also be used to calculate loyalty to various platforms. It can also be used for marketing programs such as highlights, script previews, making movies, characters, games, and other marketing projects.

Exploring Science Teacher Agency as Agent of Change: The Case of Distance Learning Practice Due to COVID-19 (변화의 주체로서 과학 교사의 행위주체성 탐색 -COVID-19에 따른 원격 수업 실행 사례를 중심으로-)

  • Lee, Hyekeoung;Kim, Heui-Baik
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.41 no.3
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    • pp.237-250
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    • 2021
  • Teachers play a key role in designing a students' learning experience. Teachers are asked to interpret the context in which they are located and to adjust their practice to fit circumstantial needs based on their teacher agency. In this study, we explore the emergence of teacher agency in distance learning caused by COVID-19 and we analyze factors shaping the teacher agency. For this purpose, we interviewed six secondary science teachers who practiced distance learning in 2020. Semi-constructed interviews and their artifacts were collected and analyzed. This study shows that teacher agency is captured when they respond to circumstantial change and modify their practice to achieve their professional purpose or adjust their practice in space for maneuvering or keep their practice consistent. This study also analyzes the factors that affect the emergence of teacher agency in two dimensions. One is individual and the other is contextual. In the individual dimension, educational values shaped by his/her experiences and short/long-term goals for the future support the emergence of teacher agency. In the contextual dimension, there are collaborative and flexible culture shared by the community, co-operation within the teacher community, and material support. On the other hand, in the individual dimension, the teachers' sense of their role, and no reflection for own practice constrain the emergence of teacher agency, and in the contextual dimension, performativity discourse and strong requirement without guidance constrain the emergence of teacher agency. We suggest an effective lens for establishing a strategy that support teachers' professional practice and the emergence of teacher agency.

Hydrograph Separation and Flow Characteristic Analysis for Observed Rainfall Events during Flood Season in a Forested Headwater Stream (산지계류에 있어서 홍수기의 강우사상에 대한 유출수문곡선 분리 및 특성 분석)

  • Nam, Sooyoun;Chun, Kun-Woo;Lee, Jae Uk;Kang, Won Seok;Jang, Su-Jin
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.54 no.1
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    • pp.49-60
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    • 2021
  • We examined the flow characteristics by direct runoff and base flow in a headwater stream during observed 59 rainfall events of flood season (June~September) from 2017 to 2020 yrs. Total precipitation ranged from 5.0 to 400.8 mm, total runoff ranged from 0.1 to 176.5 mm, and runoff ratio ranged from 0.1 to 242.9% during the rainfall events. From hydrograph separation, flow duration in base flow (139.3 days) was tended to be longer than direct runoff (78.3 days), while the contribution of direct runoff in total runoff (54.2%) was greater than base flow (45.8%). The total amount and peak flow of direct runoff and base flow had the highest correlation (p<0.05) with total precipitation and duration of rain among rainfall and soil moisture conditions. Dominant rainfall events for the total amount and peak flow of base flow were generated under 5.0~200.4 and 10.5~110.5 mm in total precipitation. However, when direct runoff occurred as dominant rainfall events, total amount and peak flow were increased by 267.4~400.8 and 169.0~400.8 mm in total precipitation. Therefore, the unique aspects of our study design permitted us to draw inferences about flow characteristic analysis with the contribution of base flow and/or direct runoff in the total runoff in a headwater stream. Furthermore, it will be useful for the long-term strategy of effective water management for integrated surface-groundwater in the forested headwater stream.

The Relationship Between Viewing Value and Viewing Satisfaction According to the Factors for Viewing Dance Performances (무용공연 관람요인에 따른 관람가치와 관람만족 관계)

  • Baek, U-Young;Cho, Dong-Min;Lee, Sang-Ho
    • Journal of Korea Entertainment Industry Association
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.237-250
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between the performance factors of dance performance and the intention to revisit the audience, and to investigate the structural relationship between viewing satisfaction and viewing value. For data processing, SPSS Ver. 21.0 and AMOS Ver. The program of 21.0 was used. Structural relationships were analyzed using a two-step approach, and the significance of the effects was verified using bootstrapping. In addition, a full mediating effect and a partial mediating effect were presented using the three-step regression analysis mediating effect. The results of the study are as follows. First, it was found that the viewing factors influenced the viewing satisfaction and the viewing value. Second, it was found that viewing satisfaction had an intention to revisit and influenced the viewing value. It was also found that the viewing value had an effect on the intention to revisit. Third, in the relationship between the viewing factors of the dance performance and the viewing value, it was found that the viewing satisfaction had a partial mediating effect. Fourth, it was found that the attendance factor of the dance performance was not related to the intention to revisit. However, it was found that the satisfaction of viewing and the value of viewing had a complete mediating effect in relation to the viewing factors of dance performances and the intention to revisit. Through these studies, the dance performance should overcome the inherent limitations of space-time limitations and present basic data for establishing a mid- to long-term marketing strategy that can respond quickly.

A Convergent and Combined Activation Plan for Exercise Rehabilitation in the Era of the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4차 산업혁명시대에 운동재활분야의 융·복합적 활성화 방안)

  • Cho, Kyoung-Hwan
    • Journal of Korea Entertainment Industry Association
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    • v.14 no.8
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    • pp.407-426
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study was to make convergent and combined analysis of the sport industry and exercise rehabilitation in the era of New Normal based on the Fourth Industrial Revolution and devise a comprehensive plan for future activation. For this purpose, literature review was performed mainly by analyzing the environment of the sport industry in the New Normal era based on the Fourth Industrial Revolution and by carrying out convergent and combined analysis of the sport industry to present a convergent and combined activation plan for exercise rehabilitation comprehensively as follows: First, it is necessary to make a strategy of promoting exercise rehabilitation in convergent and combined ways at the sport industry level. This means development of a convergent and combined exercise rehabilitation-tourism-ICT model as well as a convergent and combined exercise rehabilitation-ICT model through collaboration among ministries, including those of health and sports. Second, it is necessary to convert into a convergent and combined way of thinking and extend and reinforce educational competitiveness in the area of exercise rehabilitation. That is, it is necessary to refine the education and training systems for reinforcing personal ICT competence of exercise rehabilitation majors and relevant ones and provide convergent and combined business commencement education. Third, it is necessary to make different types of research and development by applying practical, convergent and combined skills based on the industrial field to exercise rehabilitation and relevant areas. Efforts should be made to overcome any risk in the era of New Normal and support business commencement with convergent and combined skills for exercise rehabilitation. Fourth, it is necessary to make mid- and long-term clusters where exercise rehabilitation and relevant businesses can be accumulated. This means building an industrial hub and complex for exercise rehabilitation and requires making an R&D-based cluster with industrial-academic-governmental collaboration, maximizing the synergy effects with local infrastructures, and fulfilling the function of realizing a spontaneous profit-generating structure.

Evaluating the Capping Effects of Dredged Materials on the Contaminated Sediment for Remediation and Restoration of the West Sea-Byeong Dumping Site (서해병 폐기물 배출해역 오염퇴적물의 정화·복원을 위한 준설토 피복 효과 평가)

  • Kang, Dong Won;Lee, Kwang Sup;Kim, Young Ryun;Choi, Ki-young;Kim, Chang-joon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.212-223
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    • 2022
  • For the remediation and restoration of contaminated sediment at the West Sea-Byeong dumping site, dredged materials was dumped in 2013, 2014, 2016, and 2017. The physicochemical properties and benthic fauna in surface sediments of the capping area (5 stations) and natural recovery area (2 stations) were analyzed annually from 2014 to 2020 to evaluate the capping effect of the dredged materials. The natural recovery area had a finer sediment with a mean particle size of 5.91-7.64 Φ, while the sediment in the capping area consisted of coarse-grained particles with a mean particle size of 1.47-3.01 Φ owing to the capping effect of dredged materials. Considering that the contents of organic matters (COD, TOC, and TN) and heavy metals in the capping area are approximately 50 % lower (p<0.05) than that in the natural recovery area, it is judged that there is a capping effect of dredged materials. As a result of analyzing macrobenthic assemblages, the number of species and ecological indices of the capping area were significantly lower than that of the natural recovery area (p<0.05). The number of species and ecological indices at the capping area were increased for the first four years after the capping in 2013 and 2014 and then tended to decrease thereafter. It is presumed that opportunistic species, which have rapid growth and short lifetime, appeared dominantly during the initial phase of capping, and the additory capping in 2016 and 2017 caused re-disturbance in the habitat environment. In the natural recovery and capping areas, Azti's Marine Biotic Index (AMBI) was evaluated as a fine healthy status because it maintained the level of 2nd grades (Good), whereas Benthic Pollution Index (BPI) remained at the 1st and 2nd grade. Therefore, capping of dredged materials for remediation of contaminated sediment in the dumping site has the effect of reducing the pollution level. However, in terms of the benthic ecosystem, it is recommended that the recovery trend should be monitored long-term. Additionally, it is necessary to introduce an adaptive management strategy when expanding the project to remediate the contaminated sediment at the dumping area in the future.