• 전기학회논문지
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• 제64권9호
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• pp.1276-1280
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• 2015

Among the various statistical factors for South Korea, the population has been steadily decreased by lower birthrate. Nevertheless, the number of household is constantly increasing amid population aging and single life style. In general, residential electricity use is more the result of the number of household than the population. Therefore, residential electricity consumption is expected to be far higher for decades to come. The existing long-term load forecasting, however, do not necessarily reflect the growth of single and two-member households. In this respect, this paper proposes the long-term load forecasting for residential users considering the effect of changes of the housing type, and in the case study the changes of the residential load pattern is analyzed for accurate long-term load forecasting.

• 의료ㆍ복지 건축 : 한국의료복지건축학회 논문집
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• 제12권1호
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• pp.17-26
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• 2006

The demand for long-term care is continuously on the rise as number of elders among the population increases. Due to the rapid growing demand for long-term care in Korea, there have been discussions for the introduction of new long-term care system into Korean society. The purpose of this study in to analyze changes of elderly care facilities in Japan after the beginning of long-term care system in 2000. The functional and architectural changes of Japanese facilities were researched to be used as references for predicting changes in Korean facilities. In Japan, after the execution of long term care system, the alterative aspect of facilities is divided into some categories; in sum, the change of environment for long term care, the effort to spread specialized facilities in a whole community, and the tendency to complex a variety of function of facilities such as an facility for home care service, and the like.

• 한국화재소방학회논문지
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• 제32권5호
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• pp.105-111
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• 2018

본 연구에서는 소방청의 119 구급서비스 통계연보와 통계청의 인구동향조사 및 장래추계인구를 활용하여 저출산 고령화와 같은 인구 변동이 미래의 구급 이송 서비스 이용에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 우리나라의 인구는 2031년 정점에 이룬 후 인구 감소가 시작될 것으로 추계되나 70세 이상 노인 인구는 계속 증가할 것으로 전망하고 있다. 본 연구 결과에 따르면, 인구 변동을 반영한 이송률, 즉 인구 1,000명 당 이송 환자 수는 최근 추이와 비교해 큰 폭의 변화는 없으나 70세 이상 노인 인구에 대한 구급 서비스는 기하급수적으로 늘어날 전망이다. 따라서 저출산, 고령화에 따른 인구 변동은 구급 서비스의 양적, 질적 변화를 수반하게 되며, 장기적인 관점에서의 대응이 요구된다. 특히 고령화에 따른 구급 서비스의 효과적 대응은 물론 인구 변화에 따른 기존 관할 영역의 조정과 인력, 자원의 재배치 등이 고려되어야 할 것이다.

• 수산해양기술연구
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• 제46권4호
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• pp.392-405
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• 2010

The population of small yellow croaker, Larimichthys polyactis, in the Yellow and East China Seas has decreased significantly since the mid 1970s. Several management measures have been introduced to conserve it, but population size remains low. To rebuild this population, it is now necessary to consider more effective management methods based on the stock assessment. To determine long-term population changes, fishery and biological data collected over 34 years (1969-2002) were analysed. Yearly fish length compositions were analysed for the time periods 1968 through 1970, 1978 through 1982, and 1993 through 2002; and catch data was available from 1969 to 2002. Annual population sizes were calculated based on length composition, the relationship between total length and body weight, and total landings. Analyses showed that since the 1970s, average size of harvested fish decreased; the proportion of less mature fish (smaller than the 50% maturity length, 19cm) in catches has increased and the estimated biomass has decreased significantly. Consequently, the main management recommendation is that juvenile fish need to be better protected to allow the rebuilding of resources to a more sustainable population level. This will require fish size limit, permissible mesh size, and closed area and season regulations.

• Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• 제47권4호
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• pp.264-271
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• 2023

Environmental crises caused by climate change and human-induced disturbances have become urgent challenges to the sustainability of human beings. These issues can be addressed based on a data-driven understanding and forecasting of ecosystem responses to environmental changes. In this study, we introduce a long-term ecological monitoring system in Korean Long-Term Ecological Research (KLTER), and a plan for the Korean Ecological Observatory Network (KEON). KLTER has been conducted since 2004 and has yielded valuable scientific results. However, the KLTER approach has limitations in data integration and coordinated observations. To overcome these limitations, we developed a KEON plan focused on multidisciplinary monitoring of the physiochemical, meteorological, and biological components of ecosystems to deepen process-based understanding of ecosystem functions and detect changes. KEON aims to answer nationwide and long-term ecological questions by using a standardized monitoring approach. We are preparing three types of observatories: two supersites depending on the climate-vegetation zones, three local sites depending on the ecosystem types, and two mobile deployment platforms to act on urgent ecological issues. The main observation topics were species diversity, population dynamics, biogeochemistry (carbon, methane, and water cycles), phenology, and remote sensing. We believe that KEON can address environmental challenges and play an important role in ecological observations through partnerships with international observatories.

• 경영과학
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• 제25권3호
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• pp.27-43
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• 2008

This study analyzes the changes of Gyeongju local society because of setting up low and intermediate level radioactive waste disposal site by using urban dynamics model. Specifically, after examining 'Gyeongju Long-Term Development Plan' announced in 2007, I establish the number of industries, population, gross local product, residents' income, and the long term employment condition as essential change-causing factors in Gyeongju local society based on the Big3 government project, and forecast it by using 'Gyeongju long-Term Development Plan' and all sorts of statistical data. In this stage, I assume 3 scenarios(basic, optimistic, and pessimistic view) to estimate the changes of local society more exquisitely, and scenarios are composed through mediation about variables of a growth rate and an inflow or outflow rate. The result shows that Gyeonaju local society would have growing changes by 2020. The essential change-causing factors are as follows. The case of population is estimated that it starts going down at the level of approximately 270 thousand by 2009, starts going up continuously after 2009, the year of completion of low and intermediate level radioactive waste disposal site, and increases from the level of about 300 thousand as minimum to 340 thousand as maximum in 2020. The estimates of other cases are made that the number of Industries has about 10 thousand increases, gross local product has almost 6 trillion increases, nominal gross national income doubles, as well as residences have approximately 280 thousand increases, and also made that employment condition also improves continuously, and diffusion ratio of house starts going up but the amount of supplies is a little bit insufficient in the long view.

• 보건행정학회지
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• 제34권3호
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• pp.249-260
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• 2024

연구배경: 대한민국은 고령화가 심화됨에 따라 노인 의료비용 및 장기요양 비용이 점차 증가하고 있다. 그동안 장기요양 이용 시 의료비용이 절감된다는 연구결과가 대부분이었다. 그렇지만, 기존 연구는 연구대상 및 기간에 제한점이 있어 결과를 일반화하기에 다소 어려움이 있었다. 본 연구는 이전 연구의 제한점을 해소한 후 장기요양군과 일반노인군 간 실제적인 의료비용 추이를 검토하고자 하였다. 방법: 이 연구는 2015년 전 국민을 대상으로 층화추출하여 표본을 구축하였다. 그리고 장기요양군과 일반노인군을 1:1 성향점수매칭하여 최종 연구대상자 15,114명을 선정하였다(집단별 7,557명). 의료비용을 주요 결과지표로 활용하여 장기요양의 순효과를 분석하고 장기요양급여비용을 포함한 비용분석을 수행하였다. 결과: 장기요양이용 후 장기요양군은 일반노인군에 비해 월별 인당 전체 의료비용이 56,459원 감소하였다. 그렇지만, 상급종합병원과 종합병원의 의료비용은 증가하였고 요양병원 비용이 90,687원 감소하였다. 장기요양급여비용까지 포함한다면, 관련 비용은 948,038원 증가하였다. 결론: 장기요양군은 일반노인군에 비해 급성기 병원 관련 의료비용이 높은 것으로 나타났으며, 이는 장기요양군이 더 많은 의료서비스를 요구함을 의미한다. 장기요양군의 의료 중증도 심화를 낮추기 위해 체계적이고 종합적인 지역사회-의료기관-장기요양기관 연계가 필요하다. 그리고 선제적으로 장기요양 진입을 예방하기 위해 중장년층 건강습관 관리방안을 강화하는 제도 마련이 필요하다.

• 한국사회복지학
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• 제46권
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• pp.37-59
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• 2001

This paper investigates the long-term social changes and the emerging issues in social insurance that such changes will entail, It does not attempt to resolve the conflict between neo-liberal reforms and neo-corporalist reforms. Nor does it confine itself to proposing the options to secure the financial stability of social insurance schemes. The aim of this paper lies in anticipating various problems that result from social development, analyzing the impacts of these problems on social insurance schemes, and delineating the solutions to these problems. This paper is comprised of three parts. First, it describes the expected long-term changes in society and the ensuing problems. Second, it asks whether these problems can be solved with increased public expenditures. For this purpose, an analysis of the trend in the expenditures by welfare states is attempted. Third, it summarizes the issues in social insurance and presents the possible solutions to the problems. In the chapter that deals with social changes and social problems, various aspects are reviewed, including the globalization process, the development of It industries, the uncertainty in the classification of incomes, the widening gap in earnings due to the bio-economy, and the relation between social insurance schemes and the tax system. It is concluded that there are limits to the role that increased public expenditures can play to solve the social problems. This paper argues for a structural change in the social insurance system. In every social insurance scheme, the state should foe-us its effect on the provision of basic protection against social risks for the whole population. At the same time, the state should improve the financial stability of the scheme and avoid large-scale deficits.

• 한국유기농업학회지
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• 제15권3호
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• pp.291-307
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• 2007

The objective of this article is to examine the structure of the composition of the population in rural area for the last 45 years, and to forecast mid and long term structure of the population in the near future. Moreover, forecast has been done whether the rapid increase by the inflow of foreigners has any offset on the structural change in rural population. According to the research result, the rural area is experiencing a rapid decrease in population, a rapid increase in the percentage of the aged, and foreigners. To resolve the problematic situation mentioned above, some effective counterplan has to be considered by all agencies concerned.

• Ocean Science Journal
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• 제41권4호
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• pp.211-219
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• 2006

A comparison was made of population of the economically important cockle Anadara (=Scapharca) broughtoni (Bivalvia, Arcidae) inhabiting different areas of the Razdolnaya River estuary at the head of Amurskii Bay (Peter the Great Gulf, East Sea). Also, changes in cockle population density and structure, as well as in cockle growth rates during the last 20 years were studied. In all years of investigation, the morphometrical parameters and growth rates of cockles were smaller at the sites located close to the River mouth than farther down-estuary. The differences can be attributed to higher concentration of suspended particulate matter, decreased salinity and water temperature, as well as a longer exposure to these unfavorable environmental factors at sites located close to the River mouth, compared to farther sites. For two decades, cockle population density had decreased by almost 30 times at some sites in the River estuary. The main reason for this population decline is commercial over-fishing of the cockle. Besides, for the last 20 years, linear parameters of the cockles in the population decreased approximately by 30% and weight parameters, almost two times. Cockle growth rates also decreased for this period. Evidently, these facts are due to the damaging effect of dredging.