• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.64 no.9
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• pp.1276-1280
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• 2015

Among the various statistical factors for South Korea, the population has been steadily decreased by lower birthrate. Nevertheless, the number of household is constantly increasing amid population aging and single life style. In general, residential electricity use is more the result of the number of household than the population. Therefore, residential electricity consumption is expected to be far higher for decades to come. The existing long-term load forecasting, however, do not necessarily reflect the growth of single and two-member households. In this respect, this paper proposes the long-term load forecasting for residential users considering the effect of changes of the housing type, and in the case study the changes of the residential load pattern is analyzed for accurate long-term load forecasting.

• Journal of The Korea Institute of Healthcare Architecture
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.17-26
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• 2006

The demand for long-term care is continuously on the rise as number of elders among the population increases. Due to the rapid growing demand for long-term care in Korea, there have been discussions for the introduction of new long-term care system into Korean society. The purpose of this study in to analyze changes of elderly care facilities in Japan after the beginning of long-term care system in 2000. The functional and architectural changes of Japanese facilities were researched to be used as references for predicting changes in Korean facilities. In Japan, after the execution of long term care system, the alterative aspect of facilities is divided into some categories; in sum, the change of environment for long term care, the effort to spread specialized facilities in a whole community, and the tendency to complex a variety of function of facilities such as an facility for home care service, and the like.

• Fire Science and Engineering
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• v.32 no.5
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• pp.105-111
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• 2018

Based on the Statistical Yearbook of 119 Emergency Medical Services in 2017 (National Fire Agency, 2018) and Population Projection by Province: 2015~2045 (Statistics Korea, 2017), this study analyzed the effects of population changes, such as low fertility and aging on the use of ambulance services in the future. The population of Korea is expected to decline after peaking in 2031, but the number of elderly people aged over 70 is expected to continue to increase. The rates of emergency ambulance transport (REAT, the number of patients transferred per 1,000 inhabitants) are not changed significantly, compared to the recent trends, but the ambulance services for elderly over 70 years of age will increase exponentially. Therefore, the population changes due to low fertility and aging is accompanied by a quantitative and qualitative change in ambulance services, and from the long term perspectives, it is necessary to consider not only the effective response of ambulance services due to aging, but also the adjustment of existing jurisdictions due to population changes and the relocation of manpower and resources.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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• v.46 no.4
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• pp.392-405
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• 2010

The population of small yellow croaker, Larimichthys polyactis, in the Yellow and East China Seas has decreased significantly since the mid 1970s. Several management measures have been introduced to conserve it, but population size remains low. To rebuild this population, it is now necessary to consider more effective management methods based on the stock assessment. To determine long-term population changes, fishery and biological data collected over 34 years (1969-2002) were analysed. Yearly fish length compositions were analysed for the time periods 1968 through 1970, 1978 through 1982, and 1993 through 2002; and catch data was available from 1969 to 2002. Annual population sizes were calculated based on length composition, the relationship between total length and body weight, and total landings. Analyses showed that since the 1970s, average size of harvested fish decreased; the proportion of less mature fish (smaller than the 50% maturity length, 19cm) in catches has increased and the estimated biomass has decreased significantly. Consequently, the main management recommendation is that juvenile fish need to be better protected to allow the rebuilding of resources to a more sustainable population level. This will require fish size limit, permissible mesh size, and closed area and season regulations.

• Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.47 no.4
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• pp.264-271
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• 2023

Environmental crises caused by climate change and human-induced disturbances have become urgent challenges to the sustainability of human beings. These issues can be addressed based on a data-driven understanding and forecasting of ecosystem responses to environmental changes. In this study, we introduce a long-term ecological monitoring system in Korean Long-Term Ecological Research (KLTER), and a plan for the Korean Ecological Observatory Network (KEON). KLTER has been conducted since 2004 and has yielded valuable scientific results. However, the KLTER approach has limitations in data integration and coordinated observations. To overcome these limitations, we developed a KEON plan focused on multidisciplinary monitoring of the physiochemical, meteorological, and biological components of ecosystems to deepen process-based understanding of ecosystem functions and detect changes. KEON aims to answer nationwide and long-term ecological questions by using a standardized monitoring approach. We are preparing three types of observatories: two supersites depending on the climate-vegetation zones, three local sites depending on the ecosystem types, and two mobile deployment platforms to act on urgent ecological issues. The main observation topics were species diversity, population dynamics, biogeochemistry (carbon, methane, and water cycles), phenology, and remote sensing. We believe that KEON can address environmental challenges and play an important role in ecological observations through partnerships with international observatories.

• Korean Management Science Review
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.27-43
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• 2008

This study analyzes the changes of Gyeongju local society because of setting up low and intermediate level radioactive waste disposal site by using urban dynamics model. Specifically, after examining 'Gyeongju Long-Term Development Plan' announced in 2007, I establish the number of industries, population, gross local product, residents' income, and the long term employment condition as essential change-causing factors in Gyeongju local society based on the Big3 government project, and forecast it by using 'Gyeongju long-Term Development Plan' and all sorts of statistical data. In this stage, I assume 3 scenarios(basic, optimistic, and pessimistic view) to estimate the changes of local society more exquisitely, and scenarios are composed through mediation about variables of a growth rate and an inflow or outflow rate. The result shows that Gyeonaju local society would have growing changes by 2020. The essential change-causing factors are as follows. The case of population is estimated that it starts going down at the level of approximately 270 thousand by 2009, starts going up continuously after 2009, the year of completion of low and intermediate level radioactive waste disposal site, and increases from the level of about 300 thousand as minimum to 340 thousand as maximum in 2020. The estimates of other cases are made that the number of Industries has about 10 thousand increases, gross local product has almost 6 trillion increases, nominal gross national income doubles, as well as residences have approximately 280 thousand increases, and also made that employment condition also improves continuously, and diffusion ratio of house starts going up but the amount of supplies is a little bit insufficient in the long view.

• Health Policy and Management
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• v.34 no.3
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• pp.249-260
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• 2024

Background: The Republic of Korea's aging population escalates medical and long-term care costs. While prior research has suggested that long-term care might reduce these costs, these studies had limitations in their subjects and duration, making it difficult to generalize the results. This study aims to evaluate cost changes between the long-term care group and the general older adults group after addressing these limitations. Methods: A cohort was derived from the 2015 national population using stratified sampling. Subsequently, 15,114 individuals (7,557 in each group) were identified through 1:1 propensity score matching. The study employed a difference-in-differences analysis to explore variances in medical costs and long-term care benefits post-utilization of long-term care services. Results: Compared to the general older adults group, the long-term care group experienced a reduction in monthly per capita total medical costs by 56,459 Korean won (KRW). Although costs at tertiary and general hospitals increased, those related to long-term care hospitals decreased by 90,687 KRW. Including long-term care benefits, overall expenditures increased by 948,038 KRW. Conclusion: The analysis reveals that the long-term care group faces higher medical costs in acute care than the general older adults group, emphasizing a greater need for medical services within this group. To meet the increasing medical demands of the long-term care group, a collaborative strategy linking community resources, healthcare, and long-term care facilities is imperative. Additionally, developing and implementing preventive health habit management strategies for middle-aged and older adults is essential to diminish the future requirement for long-term care.

• Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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• v.46
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• pp.37-59
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• 2001

This paper investigates the long-term social changes and the emerging issues in social insurance that such changes will entail, It does not attempt to resolve the conflict between neo-liberal reforms and neo-corporalist reforms. Nor does it confine itself to proposing the options to secure the financial stability of social insurance schemes. The aim of this paper lies in anticipating various problems that result from social development, analyzing the impacts of these problems on social insurance schemes, and delineating the solutions to these problems. This paper is comprised of three parts. First, it describes the expected long-term changes in society and the ensuing problems. Second, it asks whether these problems can be solved with increased public expenditures. For this purpose, an analysis of the trend in the expenditures by welfare states is attempted. Third, it summarizes the issues in social insurance and presents the possible solutions to the problems. In the chapter that deals with social changes and social problems, various aspects are reviewed, including the globalization process, the development of It industries, the uncertainty in the classification of incomes, the widening gap in earnings due to the bio-economy, and the relation between social insurance schemes and the tax system. It is concluded that there are limits to the role that increased public expenditures can play to solve the social problems. This paper argues for a structural change in the social insurance system. In every social insurance scheme, the state should foe-us its effect on the provision of basic protection against social risks for the whole population. At the same time, the state should improve the financial stability of the scheme and avoid large-scale deficits.

• Korean Journal of Organic Agriculture
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.291-307
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• 2007

The objective of this article is to examine the structure of the composition of the population in rural area for the last 45 years, and to forecast mid and long term structure of the population in the near future. Moreover, forecast has been done whether the rapid increase by the inflow of foreigners has any offset on the structural change in rural population. According to the research result, the rural area is experiencing a rapid decrease in population, a rapid increase in the percentage of the aged, and foreigners. To resolve the problematic situation mentioned above, some effective counterplan has to be considered by all agencies concerned.

• Ocean Science Journal
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• v.41 no.4
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• pp.211-219
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• 2006

A comparison was made of population of the economically important cockle Anadara (=Scapharca) broughtoni (Bivalvia, Arcidae) inhabiting different areas of the Razdolnaya River estuary at the head of Amurskii Bay (Peter the Great Gulf, East Sea). Also, changes in cockle population density and structure, as well as in cockle growth rates during the last 20 years were studied. In all years of investigation, the morphometrical parameters and growth rates of cockles were smaller at the sites located close to the River mouth than farther down-estuary. The differences can be attributed to higher concentration of suspended particulate matter, decreased salinity and water temperature, as well as a longer exposure to these unfavorable environmental factors at sites located close to the River mouth, compared to farther sites. For two decades, cockle population density had decreased by almost 30 times at some sites in the River estuary. The main reason for this population decline is commercial over-fishing of the cockle. Besides, for the last 20 years, linear parameters of the cockles in the population decreased approximately by 30% and weight parameters, almost two times. Cockle growth rates also decreased for this period. Evidently, these facts are due to the damaging effect of dredging.