• Title/Summary/Keyword: Long-term Prediction

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CT and MR Imaging Findings of Structural Heart Diseases Associated with Sudden Cardiac Death (급성 심장사와 관련된 구조적 심질환의 전산화단층촬영과 자기공명영상 소견)

  • Jong Sun Lee;Sung Min Ko;Hee Jung Moon;Jhi Hyun Ahn;Hyun Jung Kim;Seung Whan Cha
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.82 no.5
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    • pp.1163-1185
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    • 2021
  • Sudden cardiac death is an unexpected death originating from the heart that occurs within an hour of the onset of symptoms. The main cause of sudden cardiac death is arrhythmia; however, diagnosing underlying structural heart disease significantly contributes to predicting the long-term risk. Cardiovascular CT and MR provide important information for diagnosing and evaluating structural heart disease, enabling the prediction and preparation of the risk of sudden cardiac death. Therefore, we would like to focus on the various structural heart diseases that increase the risk of clinically-important sudden cardiac death and the importance of imaging findings.

Long-Term Science Goals with In Situ Observations at the Sun-Earth Lagrange Point L4

  • Dae-Young Lee;Rok-Soon Kim;Kyung-Eun Choi;Jungjoon Seough;Junga Hwang;Dooyoung Choi;Ji-Hyeon Yoo;Seunguk Lee;Sung Jun Noh;Jongho Seon;Kyung-Suk Cho;Kwangsun Ryu;Khan-Hyuk Kim;Jong-Dae Sohn;Jae-Young Kwak;Peter H. Yoon
    • Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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    • v.41 no.1
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    • pp.1-15
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    • 2024
  • The Korean heliospheric community, led by the Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute (KASI), is currently assessing the viability of deploying a spacecraft at the Sun-Earth Lagrange Point L4 in collaboration with National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The aim of this mission is to utilize a combination of remote sensing and in situ instruments for comprehensive observations, complementing the capabilities of the L1 and L5 observatories. The paper outlines longterm scientific objectives, underscoring the significance of multi-point in-situ observations to better understand critical heliospheric phenomena. These include coronal mass ejections, magnetic flux ropes, heliospheric current sheets, kinetic waves and instabilities, suprathermal electrons and solar energetic particle events, as well as remote detection of solar radiation phenomena. Furthermore, the mission's significance in advancing space weather prediction and space radiation exposure assessment models through the integration of L4 observations is discussed. This article is concluded with an emphasis on the potential of L4 observations to propel advancements in heliospheric science.

The cooperative regulatory effect of the miRNA-130 family on milk fat metabolism in dairy cows

  • Xiaofen Li;Yanni Wu;Xiaozhi Yang;Rui Gao;Qinyue Lu;Xiaoyang Lv;Zhi Chen
    • Animal Bioscience
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    • v.37 no.7
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    • pp.1289-1302
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    • 2024
  • Objective: There is a strong relationship between the content of beneficial fatty acids in milk and milk fat metabolic activity in the mammary gland. To improve milk quality, it is therefore necessary to study fatty acid metabolism in bovine mammary gland tissue. In adipose tissue, peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor gamma (PPARG), the core transcription factor, regulates the fatty acid metabolism gene network and determines fatty acid deposition. However, its regulatory effects on mammary gland fatty acid metabolism during lactation have rarely been reported. Methods: Transcriptome sequencing was performed during the prelactation period and the peak lactation period to examine mRNA expression. The significant upregulation of PPARG drew our attention and led us to conduct further research. Results: According to bioinformatics prediction, dual-luciferase reporter system detection, real-time quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction and Western blotting, miR-130a and miR-130b could directly target PPARG and inhibit its expression. Furthermore, triglyceride and oil red O staining proved that miR-130a and miR-130b inhibited milk fat metabolism in bovine mammary epithelial cells (BMECs), while PPARG promoted this metabolism. In addition, we also found that the coexpression of miR-130a and miR-130b significantly enhanced their ability to regulate milk fat metabolism. Conclusion: In conclusion, our findings indicated that miR-130a and miR-130b could target and repress PPARG and that they also have a functional superposition effect. miR-130a and miR-130b seem to synergistically regulate lipid catabolism via the control of PPARG in BMECs. In the long-term, these findings might be helpful in developing practical means to improve high-quality milk.

Prediction of a hit drama with a pattern analysis on early viewing ratings (초기 시청시간 패턴 분석을 통한 대흥행 드라마 예측)

  • Nam, Kihwan;Seong, Nohyoon
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.33-49
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    • 2018
  • The impact of TV Drama success on TV Rating and the channel promotion effectiveness is very high. The cultural and business impact has been also demonstrated through the Korean Wave. Therefore, the early prediction of the blockbuster success of TV Drama is very important from the strategic perspective of the media industry. Previous studies have tried to predict the audience ratings and success of drama based on various methods. However, most of the studies have made simple predictions using intuitive methods such as the main actor and time zone. These studies have limitations in predicting. In this study, we propose a model for predicting the popularity of drama by analyzing the customer's viewing pattern based on various theories. This is not only a theoretical contribution but also has a contribution from the practical point of view that can be used in actual broadcasting companies. In this study, we collected data of 280 TV mini-series dramas, broadcasted over the terrestrial channels for 10 years from 2003 to 2012. From the data, we selected the most highly ranked and the least highly ranked 45 TV drama and analyzed the viewing patterns of them by 11-step. The various assumptions and conditions for modeling are based on existing studies, or by the opinions of actual broadcasters and by data mining techniques. Then, we developed a prediction model by measuring the viewing-time distance (difference) using Euclidean and Correlation method, which is termed in our study similarity (the sum of distance). Through the similarity measure, we predicted the success of dramas from the viewer's initial viewing-time pattern distribution using 1~5 episodes. In order to confirm that the model is shaken according to the measurement method, various distance measurement methods were applied and the model was checked for its dryness. And when the model was established, we could make a more predictive model using a grid search. Furthermore, we classified the viewers who had watched TV drama more than 70% of the total airtime as the "passionate viewer" when a new drama is broadcasted. Then we compared the drama's passionate viewer percentage the most highly ranked and the least highly ranked dramas. So that we can determine the possibility of blockbuster TV mini-series. We find that the initial viewing-time pattern is the key factor for the prediction of blockbuster dramas. From our model, block-buster dramas were correctly classified with the 75.47% accuracy with the initial viewing-time pattern analysis. This paper shows high prediction rate while suggesting audience rating method different from existing ones. Currently, broadcasters rely heavily on some famous actors called so-called star systems, so they are in more severe competition than ever due to rising production costs of broadcasting programs, long-term recession, aggressive investment in comprehensive programming channels and large corporations. Everyone is in a financially difficult situation. The basic revenue model of these broadcasters is advertising, and the execution of advertising is based on audience rating as a basic index. In the drama, there is uncertainty in the drama market that it is difficult to forecast the demand due to the nature of the commodity, while the drama market has a high financial contribution in the success of various contents of the broadcasting company. Therefore, to minimize the risk of failure. Thus, by analyzing the distribution of the first-time viewing time, it can be a practical help to establish a response strategy (organization/ marketing/story change, etc.) of the related company. Also, in this paper, we found that the behavior of the audience is crucial to the success of the program. In this paper, we define TV viewing as a measure of how enthusiastically watching TV is watched. We can predict the success of the program successfully by calculating the loyalty of the customer with the hot blood. This way of calculating loyalty can also be used to calculate loyalty to various platforms. It can also be used for marketing programs such as highlights, script previews, making movies, characters, games, and other marketing projects.

A Study on the Prediction Model of Stock Price Index Trend based on GA-MSVM that Simultaneously Optimizes Feature and Instance Selection (입력변수 및 학습사례 선정을 동시에 최적화하는 GA-MSVM 기반 주가지수 추세 예측 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jong-sik;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.147-168
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    • 2017
  • There have been many studies on accurate stock market forecasting in academia for a long time, and now there are also various forecasting models using various techniques. Recently, many attempts have been made to predict the stock index using various machine learning methods including Deep Learning. Although the fundamental analysis and the technical analysis method are used for the analysis of the traditional stock investment transaction, the technical analysis method is more useful for the application of the short-term transaction prediction or statistical and mathematical techniques. Most of the studies that have been conducted using these technical indicators have studied the model of predicting stock prices by binary classification - rising or falling - of stock market fluctuations in the future market (usually next trading day). However, it is also true that this binary classification has many unfavorable aspects in predicting trends, identifying trading signals, or signaling portfolio rebalancing. In this study, we try to predict the stock index by expanding the stock index trend (upward trend, boxed, downward trend) to the multiple classification system in the existing binary index method. In order to solve this multi-classification problem, a technique such as Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis (MLOGIT), Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA) or Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) we propose an optimization model using Genetic Algorithm as a wrapper for improving the performance of this model using Multi-classification Support Vector Machines (MSVM), which has proved to be superior in prediction performance. In particular, the proposed model named GA-MSVM is designed to maximize model performance by optimizing not only the kernel function parameters of MSVM, but also the optimal selection of input variables (feature selection) as well as instance selection. In order to verify the performance of the proposed model, we applied the proposed method to the real data. The results show that the proposed method is more effective than the conventional multivariate SVM, which has been known to show the best prediction performance up to now, as well as existing artificial intelligence / data mining techniques such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and it is confirmed that the prediction performance is better than this. Especially, it has been confirmed that the 'instance selection' plays a very important role in predicting the stock index trend, and it is confirmed that the improvement effect of the model is more important than other factors. To verify the usefulness of GA-MSVM, we applied it to Korea's real KOSPI200 stock index trend forecast. Our research is primarily aimed at predicting trend segments to capture signal acquisition or short-term trend transition points. The experimental data set includes technical indicators such as the price and volatility index (2004 ~ 2017) and macroeconomic data (interest rate, exchange rate, S&P 500, etc.) of KOSPI200 stock index in Korea. Using a variety of statistical methods including one-way ANOVA and stepwise MDA, 15 indicators were selected as candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, trend classification, was classified into three states: 1 (upward trend), 0 (boxed), and -1 (downward trend). 70% of the total data for each class was used for training and the remaining 30% was used for verifying. To verify the performance of the proposed model, several comparative model experiments such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM were conducted. MSVM has adopted the One-Against-One (OAO) approach, which is known as the most accurate approach among the various MSVM approaches. Although there are some limitations, the final experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model, GA-MSVM, performs at a significantly higher level than all comparative models.

Prediction Model for Accumulation and Decline of Exchangeable Potassium in Upland Soil with Long-Term Application of Fertilizer Potassium (가리질비료(加里質肥料) 연용(連用) 고추재배(栽培) 밭토양(土壤)의 치환성가리함량(置換性加里含量) 변동양상(變動樣相) 예측방법(豫測方法))

  • Jung, Beung-Gan;Yoon, Jung-Hui;Hwang, Ki-Sung
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.342-346
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    • 1996
  • Field experiments were conducted to investigate the mode of changes in exchangeable K contents in the soil under the continued(for three years) application of different levels of K fertilizer(KCl) with and without application of conventional compost(CC) and chicken-dung derived compost (CDC) for red pepper cultivation at two field parcels with different exchageable K contents on Gopyong silty loamy soil. The application of KCl at standard rate for red-pepper resulted in the increase in exchangeable K in the soil after each harvest of the crop. while no application of K and the application of KCl at one half of the standard rate tended to lower the exchangeable K in top soil with the cultivation of the crop. The application of compost in addition to KCl ammplified the difference in exchangeable K in the soil before and after the harvest of each crop. An equation could resonably well predict the exchageable K content in top soil after the years of crop cultivation, under different treatments. were developed.

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Application of deep learning method for decision making support of dam release operation (댐 방류 의사결정지원을 위한 딥러닝 기법의 적용성 평가)

  • Jung, Sungho;Le, Xuan Hien;Kim, Yeonsu;Choi, Hyungu;Lee, Giha
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.spc1
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    • pp.1095-1105
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    • 2021
  • The advancement of dam operation is further required due to the upcoming rainy season, typhoons, or torrential rains. Besides, physical models based on specific rules may sometimes have limitations in controlling the release discharge of dam due to inherent uncertainty and complex factors. This study aims to forecast the water level of the nearest station to the dam multi-timestep-ahead and evaluate the availability when it makes a decision for a release discharge of dam based on LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) of deep learning. The LSTM model was trained and tested on eight data sets with a 1-hour temporal resolution, including primary data used in the dam operation and downstream water level station data about 13 years (2009~2021). The trained model forecasted the water level time series divided by the six lead times: 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, 18-hours, and compared and analyzed with the observed data. As a result, the prediction results of the 1-hour ahead exhibited the best performance for all cases with an average accuracy of MAE of 0.01m, RMSE of 0.015 m, and NSE of 0.99, respectively. In addition, as the lead time increases, the predictive performance of the model tends to decrease slightly. The model may similarly estimate and reliably predicts the temporal pattern of the observed water level. Thus, it is judged that the LSTM model could produce predictive data by extracting the characteristics of complex hydrological non-linear data and can be used to determine the amount of release discharge from the dam when simulating the operation of the dam.

Future Residential Forecasting and Recommendations of Housing Using STEEP-V Analysis (STEEP-V 방법론을 활용한 미래주거예측 및 대응방안)

  • An, Se-Yun;Lee, Sangho;Yoon, Jeong Joong;Kim, So-Yeon;Ju, Hannah;Kim, Sungwhan
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.230-240
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    • 2020
  • Recently, the social debate about the fourth industrial revolution has been actively developed, and it is predicted that the 4th Industrial Revolution will have a great influence on our society, cities, residential and industrial spaces. Especially, it is anticipated that the technological development of the 4th Industrial Revolution will cause a wide range of changes in residential style and culture. Therefore, it is necessary to grasp the direction of future change in advance and proactively respond to future tasks and strategies need. The purpose of this study is to predict the direction and characteristics of the mid - to long - term changes in future housing that will be brought about by the 4th Industrial Revolution and to define future social, spatial and technological impacts and issues and to find policy measures for them. STEEP (V) as a methodology for forecasting future has been used. It is a process of deriving technical and social issues by using Big Data. It collects various keywords and draws out key issues and summarizes social change patterns related to each core issue. The proposed strategy for future housing prediction and countermeasures can be used as a basic data for future directions of housing policy and suggests a process for deriving reasonable and reasonable results from multiple data sets rather than accurate prediction.

Characteristics of Autogenous Shrinkage for Concrete Containing Blast-Furnace Slag (고로슬래그를 함유한 콘크리트의 자기수축 특성)

  • Lee Kwang-Myong;Kwon Ki-Heon;Lee Hoi-Keun;Lee Seung-Hoon;Kim Gyu-Yong
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.16 no.5 s.83
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    • pp.621-626
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    • 2004
  • The use of blast-furnace slag (BFS) in making not only normal concrete but also high-performance concrete has several advantages with respect to workability, long-term strength and durability. However, slag concrete tends to show more shrinkage than normal concrete, especially autogenous shrinkage. High autogenous shrinkage would result in severe cracking if they are not controlled properly. Therefore, in order to minimize the shrinkage stress and to ensure the service life of concrete structures, the autogenous shrinkage behavior of concrete containing BFS should be understood. In this study, small prisms made of concrete with water-binder (cement+BFS) ratio (W/B) ranging from 0.27 to 0.42 and BFS replacement level of $0\%$, $30\%$, and $50\%$, were prepared to measure the autogenous shrinkage. Based on the test results, thereafter, material constants in autogenous shrinkage prediction model were determined. In particular, an effective autogenous shrinkage defined as the shrinkage that contributes to the stress development was introduced. Moreover, an estimation formula of the 28-day effective autogenous shrinkage was proposed by considering various W/B's. Test results showed that autogenous shrinkage increased with replacement level of BFS at the same W/B. Interestingly, the increase of autogenous shrinkage is dependent on the W/B at the same content of BFS; the lower W/B, the smaller increasing rate. In concluding, it is necessary to use the combination of other mineral admixtures such as shrinkage reducing admixture or to perform sufficient moisture curing on the construction site in order to reduce the autogenous shrinkage of BFS concrete.

Analyzing Spatial and Temporal Variation of Ground Surface Temperature in Korea (국내 지면온도의 시공간적 변화 분석)

  • Koo Min-Ho;Song Yoon-Ho;Lee Jun-Hak
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.39 no.3 s.178
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    • pp.255-268
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    • 2006
  • Recent 22-year (1981-2002) meteorological data of 58 Korea Meteorological Adminstration (KMA) station were analyzed to investigate spatial and temporal variation of surface air temperature (SAT) and ground surface temperature (GST) in Korea. Based on the KMA data, multiple linear regression (MLR) models, having two regression variables of latitude and altitude, were presented to predict mean surface air temperature (MSAT) and mean ground surface temperature (MGST). Both models showed a high accuracy of prediction with $R^2$ values of 0.92 and 0.94, respectively. The prediction of MGST is particularly important in the areas of geothermal energy utilization, since it is a critical parameter of input for designing the ground source heat pump system. Thus, due to a good performance of the MGST regression model, it is expected that the model can be a useful tool for preliminary evaluation of MGST in the area of interest with no reliable data. By a simple linear regression, temporal variation of SAT was analyzed to examine long-term increase of SAT due to the global warming and the urbanization effect. All of the KMA stations except one showed an increasing trend of SAT with a range between 0.005 and $0.088^{\circ}C/yr$ and a mean of $0.043^{\circ}C/yr$. In terms of meteorological factors controlling variation of GST, the effects of solar radiation, terrestrial radiation, precipitation, and snow cover were also discussed based on quantitative and qualitative analysis of the meteorological data.