• The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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• v.16 no.6
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• pp.1239-1248
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• 2021

In this paper, we present FDNN algorithm to perform prediction based on academic understanding. In order to apply prediction based on academic understanding rather than data-dependent prediction to deep learning, we constructed algorithm based on mathematical and hydrology. We construct a model that predicts flow rate of a river as an input of precipitation, and measure the model's performance through K-fold cross validation.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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• v.1 no.2 s.2
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• pp.93-101
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• 2001

The objective of this study is to derive a shrinkage correction formula that considers temperature effect and to develop a methodology for the improved prediction of the long-term behavior of the FCM bridges by considering seasonal temperature variations in-situ. Thereby, current formulation were performed by using the actual experimental shrinkage data including seasonal temperature variation. The investigation of the long-term behavior of the FCM bridge was performed on the construction site in order to decide applicability of the shrinkage formula Numerical results by the general method indicates inaccurate values of total strain when considering real strain, whereas the applied method demonstrates a good agreement in the resultant strain. In consequently, the applied method will improve the prediction of the long-term deformation of the FCM Bridges.

• Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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• v.4 no.2
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• pp.52-66
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• 2008

It has been a growing concern about reusing Sudokwon landfill 2nd site and other sanitary landfills located around the metropolitan areas. In this paper, settlement characteristics of Sudokwon landfill 2nd site were studied by analyzing the data collected over the period of six years. Three equations are combined in order to modeling the long-term settlement behavior of refuse landfill caused by mechanical secondary composition and secondary composition caused by the decomposition of biodegradable refuse. It is suggested that mechanical secondary composition is linear with respect to the logarithm of time. The models proposed by hyperbolic method and Gibson & Lo model, power creep law are considered to be suitable for the long-term prediction value of Sudokwon landfill 2nd site. The fifteen-year-period prediction value of hyperbolic method and Gibson & Lo model is considerably different from that of power creep law model. The average settlement for Block I in Sudokwon 2nd site is approximately 3.9m with 4 steps of final landfill stages.

• ETRI Journal
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• v.45 no.2
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• pp.329-337
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• 2023

For safe last-mile autonomous robot delivery services in complex environments, rapid and accurate collision prediction and detection is vital. This study proposes a suitable neural network model that relies on multiple navigation sensors. A light detection and ranging technique is used to measure the relative distances to potential collision obstacles along the robot's path of motion, and an accelerometer is used to detect impacts. The proposed method tightly couples relative distance and acceleration time-series data in a complementary fashion to minimize errors. A long short-term memory, fully connected layer, and SoftMax function are integrated to train and classify the rapidly changing collision countermeasure state during robot motion. Simulation results show that the proposed method effectively performs collision prediction and detection for various obstacles.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2000.10a
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• pp.523-523
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• 2000

We have developed a method to build time series prediction models by Genetic Programming (GP). Our proposed CP includes two new techniques. One is the parameter optimization algorithm, and the other is the new mutation operator. In this paper, the sunspot prediction experiment by our proposed CP was performed. The sunspot prediction is good benchmark, because many researchers have predicted them with various kinds of models. We make three experiments. The first is to compare our proposed method with the conventional methods. The second is to investigate about the relation between a model-building period and prediction precision. In the first and the second experiments, the long-term data of annual sunspots are used. The third is to try the prediction using monthly sunspots. The annual sunspots are a mean of the monthly sunspots. The behaviors of the monthly sunspot cycles in tile annual sunspot data become invisible. In the long-term data of the monthly sunspots, the behavior appears and is complicated. We estimate that the monthly sunspot prediction is more difficult than the annual sunspot prediction. The usefulness of our method in time series prediction is verified by these experiments.

• The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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• v.18 no.6
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• pp.1143-1150
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• 2023

The global climate crisis and the implementation of low-carbon policies have led to a growing interest in renewable energy and a growing number of related industries. Among them, solar power is attracting attention as a representative eco-friendly energy that does not deplete and does not emit pollutants or greenhouse gases. As a result, the supplement of solar power facility is increasing all over the world. However, solar power is easily affected by the environment such as geography and weather, so accurate solar power forecast is important for stable operation and efficient management. However, it is very hard to predict the exact amount of solar power using statistical methods. In addition, the conventional prediction methods have focused on only short- or long-term prediction, which causes to take long time to obtain various prediction models with different prediction horizons. Therefore, this study utilizes a many-to-many structure of a recurrent neural network (RNN) to integrate short-term and long-term predictions of solar power generation. We compare various RNN-based very short- and long-term prediction methods for solar power in terms of MSE and R² values.

• Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.193-199
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• 2011

In the past annual recycling obligation rate calculation of Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) system, it was difficult to operate the system efficiently, because responsible producers passively participated in the scheme only bent on achieving annual obligation without long-term plan. Thus, a new scheme of long-term recycling obligation rate began to be established every five year from 2008 in order to give the basis for the notice of annual specific operation standard and recycling obligation, thereby helping responsible producers to make a preparation with a plan and giving expectation of active operation of the scheme. However, in the operation of long-term recycling target program, while the development of prediction models and the evaluation for existing items has been conducted in various ways, applications for a new target items and the evaluation are quite insufficient. Therefore, in this study, problems in implementing long-term recycling goal of new target items will be examined, and more objective and rational long-term recycling rate calculation and the operation standard will be proposed. Thus, the long-term recycling target will play a role as a pacemaker to steadily improve the recycling performance of target items, and responsible producers will be expected to increase the achievement with the realistic capacity.

• Korean Circulation Journal
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• v.53 no.9
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• pp.621-631
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• 2023

Background and Objectives: The morphology-voltage-P-wave duration (MVP) electrocardiography (ECG) risk score is a newly defined scoring system that has recently been used for atrial fibrillation (AF) prediction. The aim of this study was to evaluate the ability of the MVP ECG risk score to predict AF in patients with an implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) and heart failure with reduced ejection fraction in long-term follow-up. Methods: The study used a single-center, and retrospective design. The study included 328 patients who underwent ICD implantation in our hospital between January 2010 and April 2021, diagnosed with heart failure. The patients were divided into low, intermediate and high-risk categories according to the MVP ECG risk scores. The long-term development of atrial fibrillation was compared among these 3 groups. Results: The low-risk group included 191 patients, the intermediate-risk group 114 patients, and the high-risk group 23 patients. The long-term AF development rate was 12.0% in the low-risk group, 21.9% in the intermediate risk group, and 78.3% in the high-risk group. Patients in the high-risk group were found to have 5.2 times higher rates of long-term AF occurrence compared to low-risk group. Conclusions: The MVP ECG risk score, which is an inexpensive, simple and easily accessible tool, was found to be a significant predictor of the development of AF in the long-term follow-up of patients with an ICD with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction. This risk score may be used to identify patients who require close follow-up for development and management of AF.

• Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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• v.24 no.6
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• pp.97-102
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• 2010

This paper deals with the variability of short term creep rupture time based on previous creep rupture tests and the statistical methodology of the creep life prediction. The results of creep tests performed using constant uniaxial stresses at 600, 650, and $700^{\circ}C$ elevated temperatures were used for a statistical analysis of the inter-specimen variability of the short term creep rupture time. Even under carefully controlled identical testing conditions, the observed short-term creep rupture time showed obvious inter-specimen variability. The statistical aspect of the short term creep rupture time was analyzed using a Weibull statistical analysis. The effect of creep stress on the variability of the creep rupture time was decreased with an increase in the stress level. The effect of the temperature on the variability also decreased with increasing temperature. A long term creep life prediction method that considers this statistical variability is presented. The presented method is in good agreement with the Lason-Miller Parameter (LMP) life prediction method.

• Journal of Power System Engineering
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.63-70
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• 2009

This paper discusses the influence on long-tenn predictions of the ship response in ocean by using the Global Wave Statistics data, GWS, and wave information from the remote sensing satellites. GWS's standard scatter diagrams of significant wave height and zero-crossing wave period are suggested to be corrected to a round number of 0.01/1000 fitted with a statistical analytic model of the conditional lognormal distribution for zero-crossing wave period. The GEOSAT satellite data are utilized which presented by I. R. Young and G. J. Holland (1996, named as GEOSAT data). At first, qualities of this data are investigated, and statistical characteristic trends are studied by means of applying known probability distribution functions. The wave height data of GEOSAT are compared to the data observed onboard merchant ships, the data observed by measure instrument installed on the ocean-going container ship and so on. To execute a long-tenn prediction of ship response, joint probability functions between wave height and wave period are introduced, therefore long-term statistical predictions are executed by using the functions.