• 제목/요약/키워드: Long-run trend

검색결과 51건 처리시간 0.032초

DDA(Doha Development Agenda) 환경협상동향과 환경분쟁 예방 방안 (A Study on Trend of the DDA Environmental Negotiation and Measures to Settle Environmental Dispute)

  • 조석홍
    • 한국중재학회지:중재연구
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    • 제14권1호
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    • pp.185-211
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    • 2004
  • It is a common and prevailing Construction that recent environmental problems such as earth's warmer climate and depletion of ozone layers can never be solved by the efforts of any one nation. That is why the international conventions have been held more often lately in order to discuss the matter of environment protection and there has been increased tendency of using economic activities of any nation especially their international trades as means for achieving the purpose of environment protection. Furthermore, there is an ample possibility for the advanced countries to use the regulatory restrictions for environment protection as an another measure of none-tariff barrier against countries including Korea which has high dependence on international trade with not very high technological capability of environment protection. Some of the developed countries have recently moved toward the creation of a new system of international regulatory measures on world trade in the name of Environment Protection. They Plan to impose strict control over the process and technology of production of good they are importing from other country. However, ever though the international regulatory measures, in a short term, could play a negative role on our trade capability, they could, in the long run, also play a role of helping hands if we usefully work out positive countermeasures as a result of hand-working government supported by industry and all the society as a whole.

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소득주도성장 패러다임은 여전히 유효한가? (Is the Paradigm of Income-led Growth Still Valid?)

  • 주상영
    • 사회경제평론
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    • 제31권3호
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    • pp.1-27
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    • 2018
  • 본 연구에서는 문재인 정부 출범 후 1년 간 실시된 소득주도 성장정책을 평가하고 소득주도성장의 외연확장 과제를 모색해 보았다. 분수효과를 확대하고 낙수효과를 복원하며, 증세 규모를 뛰어넘는 재정의 확대가 필요함을 강조하였다. 그러나 한국경제가 여전히 풀기 어려운 두 가지 난제는, 인구감소에 따른 저성장의 기본 추세를 되돌리기 어렵다는 점과 한국 특유의 독과점 구조가 고착되어 자원배분의 경화현상이 치유하기 힘들 정도로 악화되었다는 점이다. 소득주도성장론에 입각한 정책이 분배를 조금 개선하는 정도의 노력에 머무른다면 그 효과는 제한적일 것이다. 진정으로 패러다임 전환을 원한다면 소득주도성장의 취지를 살리는 동시에 광범위한 개혁 과제에 도전해야 한다.

The Impact of Financial Integration on Monetary Policy Independence: The Case of Vietnam

  • TRAN, Ha Hong;LE, Thao Phan Thi Dieu;NGUYEN, Vinh Thi Hong;LE, Dao Thi Anh;TRINH, Nam Hoang
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제8권2호
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    • pp.791-800
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    • 2021
  • Along with the trend of financial globalization, Vietnam has undergone a process of increasing financial integration. The great capital inflow poses a problem for the monetary policy's ability to follow a planned target during the changes in the global financial markets. This paper aims to examine the impact of financial integration on monetary policy independence in Vietnam and investigate the role of foreign exchange reserves on this relationship. The research borrows from Mundell-Fleming's Trilemma theory. The results show that increasing financial integration reduces the independence of monetary policy in the short term, and foreign exchange reserves have not shown an apparent role in Vietnam. In addition, increasing exchange rate stability has a negative impact on the independence of monetary policy, but it has an impact on growing market confidence and partly supporting the management process of monetary policy in the short term. Therefore, in the long run, Vietnam needs to allow exchange rate flexibility more, but there should not be sudden changes; the size of foreign exchange reserves should be strengthened to facilitate the implementation of an independent monetary policy with an obvious impact in the context of an increasing scale of international capital flows in the future.

지방공사 의료원의 수익성 관련요인 분석 (Analysis on the Relating Factors of Profitability of Korean Public Corporation Medical Centers(KPCMCs))

  • 문재우;박재산
    • 한국병원경영학회지
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    • 제9권2호
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    • pp.102-127
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    • 2004
  • The objective of this study is to analyze a current trend of and relating factors on profitability of the Korean Public Corporation Medical Centers(KPCMCs, hereinafter, hospitals) in Korea. There are 34 hospitals in Korea as of 2004. Among these hospitals some are red ink hospitals, others are black inks in terms of profitability. Data were collected by Korea Health Industry Development Institute(KHIDI) Statistics for Hospital Management 2000-2002 and Ministry of Health and Welfare(MOHW) financial data of public hospitals which was planned to coordinate public health care services roadmap in the long run. The samples are 32 hospitals. Profitability was measured in the aspect of profit rate with normal profit to total assets, and normal profit to gross revenues as dependent variables in respective. Independent variables were classified by general factors, i.e., location, intern/resident training, period of opening, number of beds, and managerial factors(current ratio, fixed ratio, liability to total assets, total assets turnover, personnel costs, materials cost, administrative cost), and finally factors related to patient treatment(average length of stay, bed occupancy rate, admission ratio of outpatients). The methods of analysis are correlation and multiple regression analysis. This study shows firstly, a lot of hospitals are optimal current ratio. Hospitals in upper 100% current ratio are 81.2%. And the personnel cost in total costs are high. Secondly, the trend of normal profit to gross revenues of hospitals are deteriorating gradually. And lastly, as a result of multiple regression analysis, the factors had on significant effect on normal profit to total assets are fixed ratio(+), liability to total assets(-), bed occupancy rate(+), admissions of outpatients(+), etc. And the factors had on significant effect on normal profit to gross revenues are current ration(+), fixed ratio(+), personnel cost(-), administrative expenses(-), admissions of outpatients(+), etc. In conclusion, to improve the profitability of hospitals, the efforts to reduce personnel cost and average length of stay might be needed. And also beds utilization rate need to be increased.

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기후변화를 고려한 GIS 자료 기반의 금강유역 수문기상시계열 특성 분석 (A Hydrometeorological Time Series Analysis of Geum River Watershed with GIS Data Considering Climate Change)

  • 박진혁;이근상;양정석;김세원
    • Spatial Information Research
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    • 제20권3호
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    • pp.39-50
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    • 2012
  • 본 연구는 금강유역을 대상으로 과거 약 30년간의 기상 수문시계열자료들을 수집해 다양한 통계분석을 수행하여 기후변화의 영향을 정량적으로 파악하고자 하였다. 기상자료로 금강유역 기상관측소 8개소의 37개년(1973~2009)의 기온, 강수량, 상대습도 자료를 수집하였고, 하천수위자료는 수위자료와 수위-유량관계곡선의 신뢰성 문제, 이후 수행될 장기유출분석을 고려하여 공주, 규암 수위관측소의 36개년(1973~2008)의 자료를 이용하였다. 수집된 자료의 평균, 표준편차, 왜곡도, 변동계수를 산출하여 연 계절별로 수문기상인자의 경년변화를 파악한 결과 기상인자 중 강수량의 변동성이 가장 크게 나타나 경년별 변화가 큰 것으로 분석되었다. 수문학적 지속성 분석을 위해 Run 검정, Turning Point 검정, Anderson Exact검정을 이용하여 시계열자료에 주기성이 있는지 분석한 결과 기온과 강수는 무작위성, 상대습도, 하천수위는 지속성을 가지는 인자로 분석되었고 지하수위는 관측소별, 기간별로 무작위성과 지 속성이 혼재되어 있는 것으로 나타났다. 또한, 경향성 분석을 위해 단순 선형 회귀분석과 Mann-Kendall 검정법을 이용한 결과 기온은 연 계절 모두 증가경향이 나타났고, 강수량은 여름에만 증가경향이 나타났으며, 상대습도는 뚜렷한 감소경향을 보였다. 본 연구의 결과는 기후변화로 인해 발생될 수 있는 수자원의 영향을 평가하고 미래 물 관리 적응기술 개발 및 계획 수립을 위한 자료로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 사료된다.

FTA가 유가공업에 미치는 영향과 원유 수급 전망 (The Effect on Dairy Industry of FTA and the Raw Milk Demand and Supply Outlook)

  • 신승열;김현중;최세균
    • Journal of Dairy Science and Biotechnology
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    • 제22권2호
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    • pp.131-141
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    • 2004
  • The FTA(Free Trade Agreements) are loading the world trade liberalization. Entering into FTA with Chile on 1 Apr 2004, Korea is trying to tie with Singapore and Japan in FTA. It also has a long-term plan for free-trading with China, USA, ASEAN, Canada and India. The portion of the dairy products imported from Chile, Japan and Singapore is under 1% of total dairy product imports. However, in the long run the conclusion of FTA with dairy product exporting countries such as USA, Australia, New Zealand and Netherlands will give a big impact on the dairy industry with abrupt increment in dairy product imports. Especially, whole and skim milk powder imports which are imported on the high tariff rate expect to increase. Furthermore mixed milk powder(Food preparations of goods and other whey powders) imports which domestic price is higher than world market also will dramatically increase. The milk powder stocks have increased since 2002. That made the government carry out some policies. Those include slaughtering milking cow(2002) and terminating the dairy farm enterprise and decreasing in milk production(2003). Also the case of artificial insemination by a Hanwoo fertilized egg has increased with the rise of Hanwoo farm price in 2003. By those reason, it is forecasted that the downward trend in the number of cow will be continued in 2004. It is also forecasted that the raw milk production in 2004 will decrease 4.4% compared to last year due to decreasing in the number of milking cow and raw milk collecting quota.

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조선 전용 GIS와 안벽 시뮬레이터를 이용한 후행 중일정 최적화 (An Optimization of Process Planning around Quays based on the Yard Customized GIS and the Simulator)

  • 유원선;황호진;박창규
    • 대한조선학회논문집
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    • 제52권2호
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    • pp.97-103
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    • 2015
  • This paper has focused on the middle term process planning around quays based on the prefixed long-term plan of the product mixed ships. Recently, the order rate of high add-value ships in domestic shipyards has been sharply increased and the spending time at quays is accordingly on an increasing trend. For proper and practical process planning related to quays, it has to be closely connected with a long-term plan and product calendar, erection network and result of ship allocation around quays. Moreover, it is also required to include the integrated consideration of the whole process of a yard, each ship, and each team respectively. The most distinguishing feature of this study is that it would run on the ship allocation simulator and GIS framework in order not to be limited to the specific one yard and the readers can figure out the optimization formulation containing the work load leveling and a different approach from PERT/CPM. The proposed approach reflected all requirements from the department of process planning and management in a shipyard, and the analysis of the results has explained its performance of the optimization result with the examples of total 43 ships under construction from 2008 to 2013.

경포호에서 수질변수들의 장기적인 변화 (Long-term Variations of Water Quality Parameters in Lake Kyoungpo)

  • 곽성진;발데브;최광순;허우명
    • 생태와환경
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    • 제48권2호
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    • pp.95-107
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    • 2015
  • 경포호에서 수질 변수들의 장기적인 경향을 파악하기 위하여 1998년부터 2013년까지 매년 3월부터 11월까지 2개월에 1회씩 3개 지점에서 조사된 15가지 수질변수들과 강우량자료를 이용하였으며, Mann-Kendall test, Sen's slope estimator 및 linear regression을 적용 분석하였다. 계절 변화 분석에는 Mann-Kendall test 및 Sen's slope estimator만 이용하였다. 분석결과 염분, 투명도 및 영양염류 (총인, 용존무기인, 총질소, 질산성 질소, 암모니아성 질소)의 변수들만 통계학적으로 유의적인 경향을 보였다. 선형회귀 분석에서는 염분 (표층과 심층의 전 지점)과 투명도 (지점 1)만이 통계학적으로 유의적인 증가 경향을 나타냈으나, 비모수법에 의한 분석에서는 염분과 투명도 모두 전 지점에서 통계학적으로 유의적인 증가 경향을 보였다. 통계학적으로 유의적인 감소 경향을 보인 수질변수들은 선형회귀분석에서는 용존산소 (표층 지점 1, 심층 지점 2와 3), 총인(지점 1과 2), 용존무기인, 총질소, 질산성 질소 및 암모니아성 질소, 비모수법에 의한 분석에서는 용존산소 (심층 전지점), 총인, 용존무기인, 총질소, 질산성 질소 및 암모니아성 질소였다. 계절적인 경향을 분석한 결과 봄에는 염분, 탁도, 투명도 및 부유물질 (SS), 여름에는 염분, 투명도, 질산성 질소 및 부유물질, 가을에는 수온, 염분, 투명도 및 부유물질 만이 증가하는 경향을 보였으며 이들 변수들이 계절에 따라 다소 차이를 보이는 것으로 나타났다. 특히 봄과 여름에 비해서 가을철에 Mann-Kendall test 및 Sen's Slope estimator에 의해 유의적인 경향을 나타낸 수질변수들이 많았다. 가장 강한 증가 경향을 보인 것은 염분이었으며 봄보다는 여름과 가을에 뚜렷하였다. 투명도도 염분과 유사한 특성을 보였다. 강우량은 조사기간 동안 전체적으로 감소하는 경향을 보였다. 경포호에서 영양염류의 유의적인 감소경향은 그동안 강릉시에서 추진해온 석호 복원사업 및 해수유통 (수중 보철거) 등과 관련이 있는 것으로 판단되나 정확한 원인 규명을 위해서는 보다 면밀한 조사가 수반되어야 할 것으로 사료된다.

노동력수급의 요인분석과 전망 (An Empirical Analysis of The Determinants and Long-term Projections for The Demand and Supply of Labor force)

  • 김중수
    • 한국인구학
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    • 제9권1호
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    • pp.41-53
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    • 1986
  • The purpose of this paper is two-fold. One is to investigate the determinants of the demand supply of labor, and another is to project long-term demand and supply of labor. The paper consists of three parts. In the first part, theoretical models and important hypotheses are discussed: for the case of a labor supply model, issues regarding discouraged worker model, permanent wage hypothesis, and relative wage hypothesis are examined and for the case of a demand model, issues regarding estimating an employment demand equation within the framework of an inverted short-run produc- tion function are inspected. Particularly, a theoretical justification for introducing a demographic cohort variable in a labor supply equation is also investigated. In the second part, empirical results of the estimated supply and demand equations are analyzed. Supply equations are specified differently between primary and secondary labor force. That is, for the case of primary labor force groups including males aged 25 and over, attempts are made to explain the variations in participation behavior within the framework of a neo-classical economics oriented permanent wage hypothesis. On the other hand, for the case of females and young male labor force, variations in participation rates are explained in terms of a relative wage hypothesis. In other words, the participation behavior of primary labor force is related to short-rum business fluctuations, while that of secondary labor force is associated with intermediate swings of business cycles and demographic changes in the age structure of population. Some major findings arc summarized as follows. (1) For the case of males aged 14~19 and 2O~24 groups and females aged 14∼19, the effect of schhool enrollment rate is dominant and thus it plays a key role in explaining the recent declining trend of participation rates of these groups. (2) Except for females aged 20∼24, a demographic cohort variable, which captures the impact of changes in the age structure on participation behavior, turns out to show positive and significant coefficients for secondary labor force groups. (3) A cyclical variable produce significant coefficients for prime-age males and females reflecting that as compared to other groups the labor supply behavior of these groups is more closely related to short-run cyclical variations (4) The wage variable, which represents a labor-leisure trade-off turns out to yield significant coefficients only for older age groups (6O and over) for both males and females. This result reveals that unlike the experiences of other higer-income nations, the participation decision of the labor force of our nation is not highly sensitive with respect to wage changes. (5)The estimated result of the employment demand equation displays that given that the level of GNP remains constant the ability of the economy to absord labor force has been declining;that is, the elasticity of GNP with respect to labor absorption decreasre over time. In the third part, the results of long-term projections (for the period of 1986 and 1995) for age-sex specific participation rates are discussed. The participation rate of total males is anticipated to increase slightly, which is contrary to the recent trend of declining participation rates of this group. For the groups aged 25 and below, the participation rates are forecast to decline although the magnitude of decrease is likely to shrink. On the other hand, the participation rate of prime- age males (25 to 59 years old) is predicted to increase slightly during 1985 and 1990. For the case of females, except for 20∼24 and 25∼34 age groups, the participation rates are projected to decrease: the participation rates of 25∼34 age group is likely to remain at its current level, while the participation rate of 20∼24 age group is expected to increase considerably in the future (specifi- cally, from 55% in 1985 to 61% in 1990 and to 69% in 1995). In conclusion, while the number of an excess supply of labor will increase in absolute magnitude, its size as a ratio of total labor force is not likely to increase. However, the age composition of labor force is predicted to change; that is, the proportion of prime-age male and female labor force is projected to increase.

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Chemical and Microbiological Quality, Capillary Electrophoresis Pattern, and Rennet Coagulation of UHT-treated and Irradiated Milk

  • Ham, Jun-Sang;Shin, Ji-Hye;Noh, Young-Bae;Jeong, Seok-Geun;Han, Gi-Sung;Chae, Hyun-Seok;Yoo, Young-Mo;Ahn, Jong-Nam;Lee, Wan-Kyu;Jo, Cheo-Run
    • Food Science and Biotechnology
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    • 제17권1호
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    • pp.58-65
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    • 2008
  • To see the possibility of irradiation as an alternative to ultra high temperature (UHT) sterilization, the quality characteristics of milk were analyzed. Milk treated by UHT ($135^{\circ}C$ for 4 sec) and irradiation at higher than 3 kGy showed no viable counts after 7 days of storage at $4^{\circ}C$. The contents of certain amino acids of milk, such as Arg, Asp, Glu, Ile, Leu, Lys, Pro, Ser, Thr, and Tyr, were lower in irradiated groups at 10 kGy than in UHT-treated one, but no difference was observed between irradiated milks at less than 5 kGy and UHT. The capillary electrophoresis (CE) patterns of the milk irradiated at 10 kGy showed a similar trend to the raw milk, low temperature long time (LTLT, $63^{\circ}C$ for 30 min), and high temperature short time (HTST, $72^{\circ}C$ for 15 sec) treated. However, the CE pattern of UHT-treated milk was different. Rennet coagulation test agreed with the CE results, showing that all milk samples were coagulated by rennet addition except for UHT-treated milk after 1 hr. These results suggest that irradiation of milk reduce the content of individual amino acids but it may not induce severe conformational change at a protein level when compared with UHT treatment.