• Title/Summary/Keyword: Long-run parameter

Search Result 24, Processing Time 0.026 seconds

Parameter Estimation of Tank Model by Data Interval and Rainfall Factors for Dry Season (건기 실측간격, 강우인자에 따른 탱크모형 매개변수 추정)

  • Park, Chae Il;Baek, Chun Woo;Jun, Hwan Don;Kim, Joong Hoon
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
    • /
    • v.22 no.5
    • /
    • pp.856-864
    • /
    • 2006
  • For estimating the minimum discharge to maintain a river, low flow analysis is required and long term runoff records are needed for the analysis. However, runoff data should be estimated to run a hydrologic model for ungaged river basin. For the reason, parameter estimation is crucial to simulate rainfall-runoff events for those basins using Tank model. In this study, only runoff data recorded for dry season are used for parameter estimation, which is different to other methods based on runoff data recorded for wet and dry seasons. The Harmony Search algorithm is used to determine the optimum parameters for Tank model. The coefficient of determination ($R^2$) is served as the objective function in the Harmony Search. In cases that recorded data are insufficient, the recording interval is changed and Empirical CDF is adopted to analyze the estimated parameters. The suggested method is applied to Yongdam dam, Soyanggang dam, Chungju dam and Seomjingang dam basins. As results, the higher $R^2s$ are obtained when the shorter recording interval, the better recorded data quality, and the more rainfall events recorded along with certain rainfall amount is. Moreover, when the total rainfall is higher than the certain amount, $R^2$ is high. Considering the facts found from this study for the low flow analysis, it is possible to estimate the parameters for Tank model properly with the desired confidence level.

Influence of Joint Distribution of Wave Heights and Periods on Reliability Analysis of Wave Run-up (처오름의 신뢰성 해석에 대한 파고_주기결합분포의 영향)

  • Lee Cheol-Eung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
    • /
    • v.17 no.3
    • /
    • pp.178-187
    • /
    • 2005
  • A reliability analysis model f3r studying the influence of joint distribution of wave heights and periods on wave un-up is presented in this paper. From the definition of failure mode related to wave run-up, a reliability function may be formulated which can be considered uncertainties of water level. In particular, the reliability analysis model can be directly taken into account statistical properties and distributions of wave periods by considering wave period in the reliability function to be a random variable. Also, variations of wave height distribution conditioned to mean wave periods can be taken into account correctly. By comparison of results of additional reliability analysis using extreme distributions with those resulted from joint distribution of wave height and periods, it is found that probabilities of failure evaluated by the latter is larger than those by the former. Although the freeboard of sloped-breakwater structures can be determined by extreme distribution based on the long-term measurements, it may be necessary to investigate additionally into wave run-up by using the present reliability analysis model formulated to consider joint distribution of a single storm event. In addition, it may be found that the effect of spectral bandwidth parameter on reliability index may be little, but the effect of wave height distribution conditioned to mean wave periods is straightforward. Therefore, it may be confirmed that effects of wave periods on the probability of failure of wave run-up may be taken into account through the conditional distribution of wave heights. Finally, the probabilities of failure with respect to freeboard of sloped-breakwater structures can be estimated by which the rational determination of crest level of sloped-breakwater structures may be possible.

A Study on the Effects of Training Programs at Franchise Organization (프랜차이즈 조직에 있어서 교육훈련의 성과에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Gyeong-Cho
    • The Korean Journal of Franchise Management
    • /
    • v.4 no.1
    • /
    • pp.55-71
    • /
    • 2013
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the effects of satisfaction or dissatisfaction of a franchise organization training program on its achievements. For the training program variables, it takes a motivation, a role perception, and a customer directivity as independent variables, and satisfaction or dissatistaction as a parameter. Also, it regards operation capability improvements, satisfaction of the job, and a will for a long-time employment as a dependent variable, then it presents the results by using SPSS/PC+ statistics methods. The results shows that satisfaction of training programs affect the long-time employment a lot. Therefore, for a long-run growth of the franchise organization, it is important to carry out proper training programs. The introduction(part I) contains the subject proposal and the purpose of the study, and theological background(part II) shows the definition and quality of a franchise organization, and some expectations from training programs such as motivations, role perceptions, and customer directivity. Also, part III presents the study model, hypothesis, and analyzing methods. For the last, part IV shows the verification of statistic results, then part V presents the conclusion.

A Study on Thinning Planning of Pinus koraiensis Stand(I) (잣나무 인공림(人工林)의 간벌계획(間伐計劃)에 관한 연구(硏究)(I))

  • Choi, In-Hwa;Seo, Ok-Ha
    • Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
    • /
    • v.13 no.1
    • /
    • pp.66-80
    • /
    • 1997
  • Pinus koraiensis is one of the major speciese which have been recently planted for ten years and consists of 31% of total plantation. Presently young stand less than 30 years consists of 87% of total forest, but tending thinning of it is hardly carried out and the desirable direction for the thinning is not established yet. The objective of the study is to introduce the optimum thinning plan and thinning method through the long-run experiment of tending thinning for the Pinus koraiensis stand. The experiments carry out to interprete its growth model on the subject of two thinning experimental plots and yield table of Pinus koraiensis. As the basic step for understanding the thinning process, a theoretical growth model which is suitable to express the growth process is required. For that purpose, three growth functions (Mitscherlich, 4 parameter Richards, 3 parameter Richards) are applied to the diameter growth of the sample trees which are taken in the two plots. The results show that 3 parameter Richards is the most suitable. It is also verified that the diameter growth, the height growth, and the decrease in the number of stocks can be estimated by this function. To estimate the growth change of single tree, growth model including parameter h which is related to the occupation area of single tree are introduced. The parameter h can be estimated by using the data of the diameter growth obtained from the established experimental plots. Therefore, if both verification and modification of the usefulness of the model suggested is made, equations which tell about the thinning effects could be drived by estimating the growth process of single tree in advance.

  • PDF

An Efficient Visualization Method for Interactive Volume Rendering (대화식 볼륨 렌더링을 지원하는 효율적인 가시화 방법)

  • Kim, Tae-Young
    • Journal of the Korea Computer Graphics Society
    • /
    • v.8 no.1
    • /
    • pp.1-11
    • /
    • 2002
  • In order to widely use volume rendering technology in practical fields, a user should be able to control the classification parameter interactively and extract a meaningful information easily from the 3D data as fast as it can be. Previous work on an accelerating volume rendering reconstructs an isotropic volume from an anisotropic one and classifies in pre-processing time and then renders the classified volume rapidly in run time. But, this traditional step may result in long pre-processing time and no real-time feedback. In this paper, we present an efficient classification and rendering method that allows a user to set the opacity transfer function interactively at rendering time on a personal computer without special-purpose hardware.

  • PDF

Paradox in collective history-dependent Parrondo games (집단 과거 의존 파론도 게임의 역설)

  • Lee, Ji-Yeon
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
    • /
    • v.22 no.4
    • /
    • pp.631-641
    • /
    • 2011
  • We consider a history-dependent Parrondo game in which the winning probability of the present trial depends on the results of the last two trials in the past. When a fraction of an infinite number of players are allowed to choose between two fair Parrondo games at each turn, we compare the blind strategy such as a random sequence of choices with the short-range optimization strategy. In this paper, we show that the random sequence of choices yields a steady increase of average profit. However, if we choose the game that gives the higher expected profit at each turn, surprisingly we are not supposed to get a long-run positive profit for some parameter values.

An Analysis for the Structural Variation in the Unemployment Rate and the Test for the Turning Point (실업률 변동구조의 분석과 전환점 진단)

  • Kim, Tae-Ho;Hwang, Sung-Hye;Lee, Young-Hoon
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
    • /
    • v.18 no.2
    • /
    • pp.253-269
    • /
    • 2005
  • One of the basic assumptions of the regression models is that the parameter vector does not vary across sample observations. If the parameter vector is not constant for all observations in the sample, the statistical model is changed and the usual least squares estimators do not yield unbiased, consistent and efficient estimates. This study investigates the regression model with some or all parameters vary across partitions of the whole sample data when the model permits different response coefficients during unusual time periods. Since the usual test for overall homogeneity of regressions across partitions of the sample data does not explicitly identify the break points between the partitions, the testing the equality between subsets of coefficients in two or more linear regressions is generalized and combined with the test procedure to search the break point. The method is applied to find the possibility and the turning point of the structural change in the long-run unemployment rate in the usual static framework by using the regression model. The relationships between the variables included in the model are reexamined in the dynamic framework by using Vector Autoregression.

A Developmont of Numerical Mo del on the Estimation of the Log-term Run-off for the Design of Riverheads Works -With Special Reference to Small and Medium Sijed Catchment Areas- (제수원공 설계를 위한 장기간 연속수수량 추정모형의 개발 - 중심유역을 중심으로)

  • 엄병현
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
    • /
    • v.29 no.4
    • /
    • pp.59-72
    • /
    • 1987
  • Although long-term runoff analysis is important as much as flood analysis in the design of water works, the technological level of the former is relatively lower than that of the latter. In this respect, the precise estimation model for the volume of successive runoff should he developed as soon as possible. Up to now, in Korea, Gajiyama's formula has been widely used in long-term runoff analysis, which has many problems in applying in real situation. On the other hand, in flood analysis, unit hydrograph method has been exclusively used. Therefore, this study aims at trying to apply unit hydrograph method in long-term runoff analysis for the betterment of its estimation. Four test catchment areas were selected ; Maesan area in Namlum river as a representative area of Han river system, Cheongju area in Musim river as one of Geum river system, Hwasun area in Hwasun river as one of Yongsan river system, and Supyung area in Geum river as one of Nakdong river system. In the analysis of unit hydrograph, seperation of effective rainfall was carried out firstly. Considering that effective rainfall and moisture condition of catchrnent area are inside and outside of a phenomenon respectively and the latter is not considered in the analysis, Initial base flow(qb)was selected as an index of moisture condition. At the same time, basic equation(Eq.7) was established, in which qb can take a role as a parameter in relating between cumulative rainfall(P) and cumulative loss of rainfall(Ld). Based on the above equation, computer program for estimation model of qbwas seperately developed according to the range of qb, Developed model was applied to measured hydrographs and hyetographs for total 10 years in 4 test areas and effective rainfall was estimated. Estimation precision of model was checked as shown in Tab- 6 and Fig.8. In the next stage, based on the estimated effective rainfall(R) and runoff(Qd), a runoff distribution ratio was calculated for each teat area using by computerised least square method and used in making unit hydrographs in each test area. Significance of induced hydrographs was tested by checking the relative errors between estimated and measured runoff volume(Tab-9, 10). According to the results, runoff estimation error by unit hydrograph itself was merely 2 or 3 %, but other 2 or 3 % of error proved to be transferred error in the seperation of effective rainfall. In this study, special attentioning point is that, in spite of different river systems and forest conditions of test areas, standardized unit hydrographs for them have very similar curve shape, which can be explained by having similar catchinent characteristics such as stream length, catchinent area, slope, and vegetation intensity. That fact should be treated as important factor ingeneralization of unit hydrograph method.

  • PDF

A STUDY ON THE PARAMETER ESTIMATION OF SNYDER-TYPE SYNTHETIC UNIT-HYDROGRAPH DEVELOPMENT IN KUM RIVER BASIN

  • Jeong, Sang-man;Park, Seok-Chae;Lee, Joo-Heon
    • Water Engineering Research
    • /
    • v.2 no.4
    • /
    • pp.219-229
    • /
    • 2001
  • Synthetic unit hydrograph equations for rainfall run-off characteristics analysis and estimation of design flood have long and quite frequently been presented, the Snyder and SCS synthetic unit hydrograph. The major inputs to the Snyder and SCS synthetic unit hydrograph are lag time and peak coefficient. In this study, the methods for estimating lag time and peak coefficient for small watersheds proposed by Zhao and McEnroe(1999) were applied to the Kum river basin in Korea. We investigated lag times of relatively small watersheds in the Kum river basin in Korea. For this investigation the recent rainfall and stream flow data for 10 relatively small watersheds with drainage areas ranging from 134 to 902 square kilometers were gathered and used. 250 flood flow events were identified along the way, and the lag time for the flood events was determined by using the rainfall and stream flow data. Lag time is closely related with the basin characteristics of a given drainage area such as channel length, channel slope, and drainage area. A regression analysis was conducted to relate lag time to the watershed characteristics. The resulting regression model is as shown below: ※ see full text (equations) In the model, Tlag is the lag time in hours, Lc is the length of the main river in kilometers and Se is the equivalent channel slope of the main channel. The coefficient of determinations (r$^2$)expressed in the regression equation is 0.846. The peak coefficient is not correlated significantly with any of the watershed characteristics. We recommend a peak coefficient of 0.60 as input to the Snyder unit-hydrograph model for the ungauged Kum river watersheds

  • PDF

A Comparative Study of Global Economic Models for Climate Change Policy: A Structural and Technological Analysis (기후변화 글로벌 경제모형의 구조 및 기술적 변화에 따른 비교 분석)

  • Hong, Jong Ho;Kim, Changhun
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
    • /
    • v.20 no.3
    • /
    • pp.419-457
    • /
    • 2011
  • This study aims at understanding the characteristics of global economic models, which are widely used for climate change policy analysis. A literature review study was conducted in order to derive general features of top-down models such as CGE and bottom-up/hybrid models such as GTEM. Furthermore, a structural analysis was carried out by applying parameter and structural components from other models to a particular model to observe the potential differences in outcomes. Literature review shows that bottom-up or hybrid models generally have higher level of reduction potentials than top-down models in the long run. This contradicts the conclusion presented by IPCC, and raises the need for more rigorous investigation through structural analysis. Structural analysis of EPPA model indicates that the structural component of the energy sector in a particular model is the most influential factor in predicting baseline emissions and reduction potentials. This includes the structure among energy, capital, and labor inputs, and the substitution elasticities within the energy bundle. Technology bundle can establish the conclusions from literature review, and change in Armington elasticities do not significantly affect the outcome in aggregate.

  • PDF