• 사회경제평론
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• 제31권3호
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• pp.131-163
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• 2018

경제의 장기균형은 경제에 존재하는 모든 기업들이 '초과이윤 = 0'의 조건을 충족하는 상태이다. '다른 모든 변수들이 불변'(ceteris paribus)이라는 가정에 근거한 전통적 부분균형분석은 장기균형과 논리적으로 상충한다. '산업완결균형'(full industry equilibrium)은 전통적인 부분균형분석보다 포괄적인 부분균형의 틀 속에서 개별 산업의 장기균형을 다룬다. 산업완결균형에 대한 비교정태분석은 개별 기업/산업에 대하여 기존의 부분균형분석이 도출하는 결과들이 성립하지 않을 수 있음을 보인다. 본 논문은 산업완결균형의 배경과 의의를 소개한다. 이 과정에서 산업완결균형 분석과 1960-70년대의 자본논쟁이 갖는 유사점과 상이점을 논의하고, 산업완결균형 분석의 비판적 의의와 건설적 의의를 밝힌다.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권8호
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• pp.41-49
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• 2020

This study investigates the short-run and long-run causal behavior of the Philippine stock market index volatility under vector error correction environment. The variables were tested first for stationarity and then long-run equilibrium relationship. Moreover, an impulse response function was estimated to examine the extent of innovations in the independent variables in explaining the Philippine stock market index volatility. The results reveal that the volatility of the Philippine stock market index exhibit long-run equilibrium relationship with Peso-Dollar exchange rate, London Interbank Offered Rate, and crude oil prices. The short-run dynamics-based VECM estimates indicate that in the short-run, increases (i.e., depreciation) in Peso-Dollar exchange rate cause PSEI volatility to increase. As for the London Interbank Offered Rate, it causes increases in PSEI volatility in the short-run. The adjustment coefficients used with the long-run dynamics validates the presence of unidirectional causal long-run relationship from Peso-Dollar exchange rate, London Interbank Offered Rate, and crude oil prices to PSEI volatility, and bidirectional causal long-run relationship between PSEI volatility and London Interbank Offered Rate. The impulse response functions developed within the VECM framework demonstrate the positive and negative reactions of PSEI volatility to unanticipated Peso-Dollar exchange rate, London Interbank Offered Rate, and crude oil price shocks.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제9권6호
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• pp.245-252
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• 2022

This study examines the strength of the impact of fiscal policy tools on economic wellbeing as measured by per capita income in Malaysia from 1996 to 2020. The impact of fiscal policy instruments on economic wellness, represented by real income per capita, is measured using the autoregressive distributed lags model. The speed of adjustment from short-run disequilibrium to long-run equilibrium is also measured to assess the strength of the fiscal instruments' impact on per capita income. Empirical results exhibit the existence of co-integration relationships between per capita income, tax revenue, and government spending. The findings provide strong support for the presence of a long-run positive impact on government spending and a long-run negative impact of tax revenue on per capita income. The coefficient of ECT_t-1 indicates that deviations from a short-run disequilibrium to a long-run equilibrium from the current to the future period are corrected with a speed of 76% (equivalent to a duration of 1.5-2 years to return to equilibrium). The practical and policy implication of the results is fiscal instruments play a significant role, mainly in alleviating the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in the long run.

• 수산경영론집
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• 제29권2호
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• pp.77-96
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• 1998

Fisheries products in Korea generally go through three markets, namely the wholesale market at production site (Market A), the wholesale market at consumption site (Market B), and the retail market (Market C), from producers to end consumers. As the products move from Market A through Market B to Market C, the marginal gap of prices asked in these markets demonstrates an apparent relationship. The producers, middlemen, consumers, and governmental departments concerned may influence the marketing prices of fisheries products. This study employing the cointegration theory tries to investigate whether causality of the price-setting among these markets exists and, if any, what it is. The authors have focused their attention on fisheries markets in Pusan, analyzing the long-run equilibrium relationship and causality between the prices of hairtail and squid among markets at different levels. Data used in this study cover the period f개m August 1984 to December 1997 fer hairtail, and the period from May 1989 to December 1997 for squid. The main findings of the study may be summarized as follows: First, regardless of the price time-series of hairtail and squid in individual market, the first difference is necessary fur satisfying the stationary conditions since each time-series is a first integration. This means homogeneous integration of time-series, which is a requirement of the long-run equilibrium of prices at different markets, is satisfied. Second, the study of the long-run equilibrium relationship between the prices at Market A and Market B shows that a long-run equilibrium relationship does exist for selling prices of the two species at Market A and Market B. Third, the ECM (error correction model ) used here to describe the long- and short-run dynamics of price change demonstrates that, in the case of squid, the price change in Market A will lead to a corresponding price change in Market B in the long-run period. In the short-run, however, the price at Market H is not only influenced by the price change in Market A but influence the price at Market A as well, that is, the Prices between Market A and Market B have a feedback effect. It should be stressed that the limitation in data collection, which cover only two species of hairtail and squid, is likely to cause a sampling bias. Nonetheless, we may conclude that a dynamic relation in the formation of prices does exist in view of the transaction amount of species at different markets. It is believed that the conclusion drawn from this study would not only contribute to a long-lasted debate on the direction of causality of price-setting among academic circle and fishing community, but would provide a useful standard for the policy makers in charge of the price-setting of fisheries products as well.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제1권3호
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• pp.17-28
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• 2014

The paper deals with the impact of the product distribution and information technology sectors on energy resource use, carbon emissions and economic growth by examining the long-run equilibrium relationships and Granger causal relationships among these variables in South Korea. The quarterly time series data from the first quarter of 1970 to the third quarter of 2010 (163 observations) are collected and retrieved from the Bank of Korea database. The paper examines the long-run equilibrium relationships using cointegration techniques and Granger causality using vector error correction models. Test results indicate a long-run equilibrium relationship exists among these variables. In testing directional causality, both the product distribution and the information technology sectors show direct effects on economic growth but only marginal effects on carbon emissions.

• 해운물류연구
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• 제35권1호
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• pp.93-109
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• 2019

본 연구는 혼합주기모형을 해운경기 예측에 활용하기 위해 기존의 비선형 장기균형관계분석에서 통계적으로 유의한 요인들을 단기모형에 적용하였다. 가장 일반적인 단일변수(univariate) AR(1) 모형과 혼합주기모형으로부터 각각 표본외 예측을 실시하여 예측오차와 비교한 결과 혼합주기모형의 예측력이 AR(1) 모형보다 향상됨을 확인하였다. 이러한 실증분석은 새로운 고차원 혼합주기모형이 해운경기변동 예측에 유용한 모형임을 의미하며, 즉, 최근 다변수 시계열 자료가 주로 장기균형관계(long-run equilibrium)를 대상으로 하고 있는데, 고차주기와 같은 정보를 분석에 포함할 경우 단기 해운경기 분석모형의 예측력이 향상될 수 있음을 의미하는 분석결과이다.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제20권1호
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• pp.67-90
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• 2016

This paper provides an assessment of the potential economic impacts of the Vietnam-Korea free trade agreement on Vietnam, by using general equilibrium modeling. The results show that Vietnam-Korea FTA will increase aggregate welfare for both countries in the long run. The most important gains accrue from better allocation of resources consequent to trade liberalization. All the sectoral differences and changes are consistent with the trade profiles of the two countries, and the long-run results are more pronounced than those of the short-run. In comparison with other ASEAN countries, the CGE analysis suggests that Vietnam's agriculture exports to Korea would especially rise in the long run. However, there will be strong competition in this sector among ASEAN members. Thus, an earlier conclusion of a comprehensive FTA with Korea is expected to be a good strategy for Vietnam, so as to avoid the direct competition with ASEAN members in the future.

• 수산경영론집
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• 제40권2호
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• pp.105-126
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• 2009

This study applies the cointegration theory to analyse the causality of the prices between imported fisheries and domestic fisheries in distribution channel. We've focused on the prices of import, wholesale and retail about the frozen Alaska pollack, hairtail and croaker which take up high portion and are popular among most of the consumers. In process of analysis, the unit root test was adopted to find the stability of time series data prior to the cointegration test. If the time series data was found as stable one in unit root test, we should analyse the VAR model. If unstable, the cointegratioin test was adopeted to find the long-run equilibrium relationship between the data. When the long-run equilibrium relationship was found among the price of the import, wholesale and retail price, the VECM model was adoped. If not, the differenced VAR model was adopted. The main findings of this study could be summarized as follows ; First, according to the result of the analysis on VAR model, time series data of frozen Alaska pollack was found as stable and has causality relationship and close effect was existing among the import, wholesale and retail price. Second, the data of frozen hairtail was found as an unstable one in unit root test and the result of cointegration test showed the long-run equilibrium relationship at lag 1. From the results of VECM model, we could find that the coefficient of error correction is effective, and the sign is negative(-). It means that the existence of adjustment tendency to long-run equilibrium after a short-run deviation. But the short-run causality of the prices were not found except the price of wholesale. Third, according to the results of differenced VAR model, data from frozen croaker did not have the stability and long-run equilibrium. Moreover, it was found that the import price has a weak causality on the retail price. Because of having difficulties in collecting data, the result of this paper could not explain the relationship among the prices of import, wholesale and retail perfectly. However, it more or less contributed to a long-lasted debate on the direction of causality of price-setting in academic research and provided a useful guide for the policy makers in charge of the price-setting of fisheries products as well.

• 유통과학연구
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• 제10권9호
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• pp.5-11
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• 2012

Purpose - The objective of the paper is to explain both the price sensitivity of international tourists to South Korea and the price sensitivity of Korean tourists to international travel. The study examines long-run equilibrium relationships and Granger causal relationships between foreign exchange rates and inbound and outbound tourism demand in South Korea. Research design/ data / methodology - The study employs monthly time series data from January 1990 to September 2010. The paper examines the long-run equilibrium relationship using the Johansen cointegration test approach after unit root tests. The short-run Granger causality was tested using the vector error correction model with the Wald test. Results - Hypothesis 1 testing whether there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between exchange rates, inbound and outbound tourism demand is supported. Hypothesis 2 testing whether exchange rates lead to a change in touristarrivals and expenditure is not supported. Hypothesis 3 testing whether exchange rates lead to a change in tourist departures and expenditure is supported. Conclusions - The findings of this study show that the impacts of tourism price competitiveness are changing quite significantly with regard to destination competitiveness. In other words, the elasticity of tourism price over tourism demand has been moderated.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권11호
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• pp.759-768
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• 2020

The purpose of this study is to assess the state of competition in Nepalese banking over the period from 2010 to 2019. This study employs panel data and a non-structural Panzar-Rosse model to measure the degree of competition in the Nepalese banking industry. The first reduced-form equation is applied to gauge competition, and the second model is used to test the long-run equilibrium in the banking market. The finding reveals that the Nepalese banking market is equilibrium in the long-run. It implies that the factor prices do not affect ROA in the long-run. The result of the H-statistic shows that the Nepalese banking system is operating under the state of perfect competition and is shifted from monopolistic competition to perfect competition. The reduced-form model reveals that the interest income is positive and significantly affected by factor prices. Similarly, the macroeconomic variable GDP growth is positively related to interest income. On the contrary, the bank's specific factors risk and the number of bank branches are inversely associated with the regressand. The outcomes of the study may be advantageous to the policymakers, especially to Nepal Rastra Bank to implement monetary policy and M&A policy for the stability and growth of the financial system of Nepal.