• Title/Summary/Keyword: Long-Term Predictions

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Prediction of Concrete Temperature and Its Effects on Continuously Reinforcement Concrete Pavement Behavior at Early Ages (초기재령에서 연속철근콘크리트포장 거동에 콘크리트 온도의 영향과 예측)

  • Kim Dong-Ho;Choi Seong-Cheol;Won Moon-Cheol
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.8 no.2 s.28
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    • pp.55-62
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    • 2006
  • Transverse cracks in continuously reinforced concrete pavement (CRCP) occur at early ages due to temperature and moisture variations. The width and spacing of transverse cracks have a significant effect on pavement performance such as load transfer efficiency and punchout development. Also, crack widths in CRCP depend on 'zero-stress temperature,' which is defined as a temperature where initial concrete stresses become zero, as well as drying shrinkage of concrete. For good long-term performance of CRCP, transverse cracks need to be kept tight. To keep the crack widths tight throughout the pavement life, zero-stress temperature must be as low as practically possible. Thus, temperature control at early ages is a key component In ensuring good CRCP performance. In this study, concrete temperatures were predicted using PavePro, a concrete temperature prediction program, for a CRCP construction project, and those values were compared with actual measured temperatures obtained from field testing. The cracks were also surveyed for 12 days after concrete placement. Findings from this study can be summarized as follows. First, the actual maximum temperatures are greater than the predicted maximum temperature in the ranges of 0.2 to 4.5$^{\circ}C$. For accurate temperature predictions, hydration properties of cementitious materials such as activation energy and adiabatic constants, should be evaluated and accurate values be obtained for use as input values. Second, within 24 hours of concrete placement, temperatures of concrete placed in the morning are higher than those placed in the afternoon, and the maximum concrete temperature occurred in the concrete placed at noon. Finally, from the 12 days of condition survey, it was noted that the rate of crack occurrence in the morning placed section was 25 percent greater than that in the afternoon placed section. Based on these findings, it is concluded that maximum concrete temperature has a significant effect on crack development, and boner concrete temperature control is needed to ensure adequate CRCP performance.

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Prediction of a hit drama with a pattern analysis on early viewing ratings (초기 시청시간 패턴 분석을 통한 대흥행 드라마 예측)

  • Nam, Kihwan;Seong, Nohyoon
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.33-49
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    • 2018
  • The impact of TV Drama success on TV Rating and the channel promotion effectiveness is very high. The cultural and business impact has been also demonstrated through the Korean Wave. Therefore, the early prediction of the blockbuster success of TV Drama is very important from the strategic perspective of the media industry. Previous studies have tried to predict the audience ratings and success of drama based on various methods. However, most of the studies have made simple predictions using intuitive methods such as the main actor and time zone. These studies have limitations in predicting. In this study, we propose a model for predicting the popularity of drama by analyzing the customer's viewing pattern based on various theories. This is not only a theoretical contribution but also has a contribution from the practical point of view that can be used in actual broadcasting companies. In this study, we collected data of 280 TV mini-series dramas, broadcasted over the terrestrial channels for 10 years from 2003 to 2012. From the data, we selected the most highly ranked and the least highly ranked 45 TV drama and analyzed the viewing patterns of them by 11-step. The various assumptions and conditions for modeling are based on existing studies, or by the opinions of actual broadcasters and by data mining techniques. Then, we developed a prediction model by measuring the viewing-time distance (difference) using Euclidean and Correlation method, which is termed in our study similarity (the sum of distance). Through the similarity measure, we predicted the success of dramas from the viewer's initial viewing-time pattern distribution using 1~5 episodes. In order to confirm that the model is shaken according to the measurement method, various distance measurement methods were applied and the model was checked for its dryness. And when the model was established, we could make a more predictive model using a grid search. Furthermore, we classified the viewers who had watched TV drama more than 70% of the total airtime as the "passionate viewer" when a new drama is broadcasted. Then we compared the drama's passionate viewer percentage the most highly ranked and the least highly ranked dramas. So that we can determine the possibility of blockbuster TV mini-series. We find that the initial viewing-time pattern is the key factor for the prediction of blockbuster dramas. From our model, block-buster dramas were correctly classified with the 75.47% accuracy with the initial viewing-time pattern analysis. This paper shows high prediction rate while suggesting audience rating method different from existing ones. Currently, broadcasters rely heavily on some famous actors called so-called star systems, so they are in more severe competition than ever due to rising production costs of broadcasting programs, long-term recession, aggressive investment in comprehensive programming channels and large corporations. Everyone is in a financially difficult situation. The basic revenue model of these broadcasters is advertising, and the execution of advertising is based on audience rating as a basic index. In the drama, there is uncertainty in the drama market that it is difficult to forecast the demand due to the nature of the commodity, while the drama market has a high financial contribution in the success of various contents of the broadcasting company. Therefore, to minimize the risk of failure. Thus, by analyzing the distribution of the first-time viewing time, it can be a practical help to establish a response strategy (organization/ marketing/story change, etc.) of the related company. Also, in this paper, we found that the behavior of the audience is crucial to the success of the program. In this paper, we define TV viewing as a measure of how enthusiastically watching TV is watched. We can predict the success of the program successfully by calculating the loyalty of the customer with the hot blood. This way of calculating loyalty can also be used to calculate loyalty to various platforms. It can also be used for marketing programs such as highlights, script previews, making movies, characters, games, and other marketing projects.

Geochemical Modeling on Behaviors of Radionuclides (U, Pu, Pd) in Deep Groundwater Environments of South Korea (한국 심부 지하수 환경에서의 방사성 핵종(우라늄, 플루토늄, 팔라듐)의 지화학적 거동 모델링)

  • Jaehoon Choi;SunJu Park;Hyunsoo Seo;Hyun Tai Ahn;Jeong-Hwan Lee;Junghoon Park;Seong-Taek Yun
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.56 no.6
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    • pp.847-870
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    • 2023
  • The safe disposal of high-level radioactive waste requires accurate predictions of the long-term geochemical behavior of radionuclides. To achieve this, the present study was conducted to model geochemical behaviors of uranium (U), plutonium (Pu), and palladium (Pd) under different hydrogeochemical conditions that represent deep groundwater in Korea. Geochemical modeling was performed for five types of South Korean deep groundwater environment: high-TDS saline groundwater (G1), low-pH CO2-rich groundwater (G2), high-pH alkaline groundwater (G3), sulfate-rich groundwater (G4), and dilute (fresh) groundwater (G5). Under the pH and Eh (redox potential) ranges of 3 to 12 and ±0.2 V, respectively, the solubility and speciation of U, Pu, and Pd in deep groundwater were predicted. The result reveals that U(IV) exhibits high solubility within the neutral to alkaline pH range, even in reducing environment with Eh down to -0.2 V. Such high solubility of U is primarily attributed to the formation of Ca-U-CO3 complexes, which is important in both G2 located along fault zones and G3 occurring in granitic bedrocks. On the other hand, the solubility of Pu is found to be highly dependent on pH, with the lowest solubility in neutral to alkaline conditions. The predominant species are Pu(IV) and Pu(III) and their removal is predicted to occur by sorption. Considering the migration by colloids, however, the role of colloid formation and migration are expected to promote the Pu mobility, especially in deep groundwater of G3 and G5 which have low ionic strengths. Palladium (Pd) exhibits the low solubility due to the precipitation as sulfides in reducing conditions. In oxidizing condition, anionic complexes such as Pd(OH)3-, PdCl3(OH)2-, PdCl42-, and Pd(CO3)22- would be removed by sorption onto metal (hydro)oxides. This study will improve the understanding of the fate and transport of radionuclides in deep groundwater conditions of South Korea and therefore contributes to develop strategies for safe high-level radioactive waste disposal.