• Title/Summary/Keyword: Long term change

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Overview of Long-tern Electricity Demand Forecasting Mechanism for National Long-term Electricity Resource Planning (전력수급기본계획 수립위한 장기 전력수요 예측절차)

  • Kim, Wan-Soo;Jeon, Byung-Kyu
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.59 no.9
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    • pp.1581-1586
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    • 2010
  • Korea Power Exchange has successfully performed the Long-term Electricity Demand Forecasting. Recently there is a lot of change in electricity industry sector; the national master-plan for green gas emission reducing, rise of smart-grid, and new trend of electricity consumption, and it is becoming painful challenging for demand forecasting. In new circumstance the demand forecasting is required more flexible and more accurate.

Change of Subalpine Coniferous Forest Area over the Last 20 Years (아고산 침엽수림 분포 면적의 20년간 변화 분석)

  • Kim, Eun-Sook;Lee, Ji-Sun;Park, Go-Eun;Lim, Jong-Hwan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.108 no.1
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    • pp.10-20
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to identify the long-term area changes in the subalpine coniferous forests in Korea in order to understand the changes in the subalpine forest ecosystems vulnerable to climate change. We analyzed 20 years of time-series Landsat satellite images (mid 1990s, mid 2010s) for change detection of coniferous forests and compared with the long term changes of climate information to identify their relationship in the study area. As a result, the area of coniferous forests in the study region decreased by 25% over 20 years. The regions with largest changes are Seoraksan, Baegunsan-Hambaeksan-Jangsan, Jirisan, and Hallasan. The region with the largest decrease in area was Baegunsan (reduced area: 542 ha), and the region with large decrease in area and the largest rate of decrease was Hallasan (rate of decrease: 33.3%). As the Jeju region has the most rapid temperature rise, it is projected that Hallasan is the most vulnerable forest ecosystem affected by climate change. The result of this study shows that from a long-term perspective the overall coniferous forests in the subalpine region are declining, but the trend varies in each region. This national and long-term information on the change of coniferous forests in the subalpine region can be utilized as baseline data for the detailed survey of endangered subalpine coniferous trees in the future.

The Extraction Process of Durative Persuasive System Design Characteristics for Healthcare-related Mobile Applications

  • Zhang, Chao;Wan, Lili
    • International journal of advanced smart convergence
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.18-29
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    • 2019
  • In the field of Human-Computer Interaction design, persuasive design has gradually been applied to the system development and design process, especially for mobile application design. However, most mobile applications have hitherto a very short using lifecycle. Especially, design features with long-term persuasive effectiveness remain to be further researched and developed. In this study, we focused on investigating and identifying the durative persuasive design characteristics through a data mining process and evaluating the durative effectiveness through a long-term observation process. Total five hundred healthcare-related mobile applications were selected from Apple iTunes Store and a mixed method was conducted to extract the most common persuasive design characteristics. Based on the results of extraction, a representative healthcare-related mobile application was selected as experimental subject. Total one hundred and twenty participants were observed during a six-months experiment and the monitoring data of app usage of all participants was collected once a week. According to the evaluation model for behavior change identification process, participants with habit formation features were proved to have a significant long-term perception level for ten persuasive design characteristics. Further interview research was performed to investigate the participant's long-term perceptions on those characteristics for the purpose of identifying the durative persuasions. The results indicated that a long-term durative effectiveness can be observed and healthcare-related apps designed with those characteristics could have durative effectiveness. This study may contribute to the improvement of future mobile application designs in user experience and durative persuasion, as well as bringing future benefits for both mobile application developers and users.

The Impact of Long-term Care Insurance on Medical Utilization and Medical Cost in South Korea (노인장기요양보험 서비스 이용에 따른 의료이용 및 의료비 지출 양상의 변화)

  • Kang, Hee-Jin;Jang, Suhyun;Jang, Sunmee
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.389-399
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    • 2022
  • Background: This study aimed to analyze changes in medical utilization and cost before and after long-term care (LTC) implementation. Methods: We used the National Health Information Database from National Health Insurance Service. The participants were selected who had a new LTC grade (grade 1-5) for 2015. Medical utilization was analyzed before and after LTC implementation. Segmented regression analysis of interrupted time series was conducted to evaluate the overall effect of the LTC implementation on medical costs. Results: The total number of participants was 41,726. A major reason for hospitalization in grade 1 was cerebrovascular diseases, and dementia was the top priority in grade 5. The proportion of hospitalization in grade 1 increased sharply before LTC implementation and then decreased. In grade 5, it increased before LTC implementation, but there was no significant difference after LTC implementation. As for medical cost, in grades 1 to 4, the total cost increased sharply before the LTC implementation, but thereafter, changes in level and trend tended to decrease statistically, and for grade 5, immediately after LTC implementation, the level change was decreasing, but thereafter, the trend change was increasing. Conclusion: Long-term care grades showed different medical utilization and cost changes. Long-term care beneficiaries would improve their quality of life by adequately resolving their medical needs by their grades.

Tunnel-Lining Analysis in Consideration of Seepage and Rock Mass Behavior (투수 및 암반거동을 고려한 터널 라이닝의 거동 분석)

  • Kong, Jung-Sik;Choi, Joon-Woo;Nam, Seok-Woo;Lee, In-Mo
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.26 no.5C
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    • pp.359-368
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    • 2006
  • After construction, time-variant seepage and long-term underground motion are representative factors to understand the abnormal behavior of tunnels. In this study, numerical models have been developed to analyze the behavior of tunnels associated with seepage and long-term underground motion. Possible scenarios have been investigated to establish causes-and-results mechanisms. Various parameters such as permeability of tunnel filter, seepage condition, water table, long-term rock mass load, size of damaged zone due to excessive blasting have been investigated. These are divided into two sub-parts depending on the tunnel type and major loading mechanisms depending on the types. For the soft ground tunnels, the behavior associated with seepage conditions has been studied and the effect of permeability change in tunnel-filter and the effect of water-table change which are seldom measurable are investigated in detail. For the rock mass tunnels, tunnel behavior associated with the visco-plastic behavior of rock mass has been studied and the long-term rock mass loads as a result of relaxation and creep have been considered.

Fully Implantable Deep Brain Stimulation System with Wireless Power Transmission for Long-term Use in Rodent Models of Parkinson's Disease

  • Heo, Man Seung;Moon, Hyun Seok;Kim, Hee Chan;Park, Hyung Woo;Lim, Young Hoon;Paek, Sun Ha
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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    • v.57 no.3
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    • pp.152-158
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    • 2015
  • Objective : The purpose of this study to develop new deep-brain stimulation system for long-term use in animals, in order to develop a variety of neural prostheses. Methods : Our system has two distinguished features, which are the fully implanted system having wearable wireless power transfer and ability to change the parameter of stimulus parameter. It is useful for obtaining a variety of data from a long-term experiment. Results : To validate our system, we performed pre-clinical test in Parkinson's disease-rat models for 4 weeks. Through the in vivo test, we observed the possibility of not only long-term implantation and stability, but also free movement of animals. We confirmed that the electrical stimulation neither caused any side effect nor damaged the electrodes. Conclusion : We proved possibility of our system to conduct the long-term pre-clinical test in variety of parameter, which is available for development of neural prostheses.

Discharge Capacity of Prefabricated Vertical Drain Confined In-Clay Under Long-Term Conditions (연직배수재 타설 후 장기간 경과된 지반의 통수성능)

  • Jeong, Sang-Guk
    • Journal of the Korean Geosynthetics Society
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.239-249
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    • 2018
  • Typically, soft clay improvement is carried out using installation of PVD and surcharge method. According to circumstances, installed PVD has left for a long time due to the change in construction schedule. Therefore, for simulation of this kind of condition, discharge capacity tests were carried out under a series of temperature condition (30, 35, $40^{\circ}C$). The results indicated that under water confinement, the discharge capacities significantly reduced with elapsed time. And, the empirical equation by Miura and Chai (2000) was used for estimating the long-term in-clay discharge capacity. Based on the test results, it is recommended that in term of long-term discharge capacity, Miura and Chai's equation and reliability evaluation using discharge capacity tests under a series of temperature condition may be used.

Estimation of Future Long-Term Riverbed Fluctuations and Aggregate Extraction Volume Using Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study of the Nonsan River Basin (기후변화시나리오를 이용한 미래 장기하상변동 및 골재 채취량 산정: 논산천을 사례로)

  • Dae Eop Lee;Min Seok Kim;Hyun Ju Oh
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.57 no.2
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    • pp.107-117
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    • 2024
  • The objective of this study is to estimate riverbed fluctuations and the volume of aggregate extraction attributable to climate change. Rainfall-runoff modeling, utilizing the SWAT model based on climate change scenarios, as well as long-term riverbed fluctuation modeling, employing the HEC-RAS model, were conducted for the Nonsan River basin. The analysis of rainfall-runoff and sediment transport under the SSP5-8.5 scenario for the early part of the future indicates that differences in annual precipitation may exceed 600 mm, resulting in a corresponding variation in the basin's sediment discharge by more than 30,000 tons per year. Additionally, long-term riverbed fluctuation modeling of the lower reaches of the Nonsan Stream has identified a potential aggregate extraction area. It is estimated that aggregate extraction could be feasible within a 2.455 km stretch upstream, approximately 4.6 to 6.9 km from the confluence with the Geum River. These findings suggest that the risk of climate crises, such as extreme rainfall or droughts, could increase due to abnormal weather conditions, and the increase in variability could affect long-term aggregate extraction. Therefore, it is considered important to take into account the impact of climate change in future long-term aggregate extraction planning and policy formulation.

Studies on the Change of Components with Long-Term Storage of paddy (장기저장 미곡의 성분변화 특성)

  • 김영수
    • The Korean Journal of Food And Nutrition
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.409-414
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    • 1999
  • In order to investigate the changes of rice qualities during 4 years storage of paddy stored in ware-house of normal temperature condition. Temperature in warehouse was changed more than 3$0^{\circ}C$ under the influence of average temperature outside of a warehouse. Water content of paddy was not increased over 15% But as average temperature in warehouse was gone up 18$^{\circ}C$ from June to September every years it was supposed that these periods were to be deterioration of rice quality. On investigation of change in paddy it was supposed that these periods were to be deterioration of rice quality. On investigation of change in paddy components during the long term storage, reducing, sugar, amylose, crude protein were increased 0.24%, 19.23%, 7.02% at enterance time to 0.5%, 20.31% 7.46% 4 years later respectively. Max viscosity final visocity and set back value by amylograph were increased 449B,U 610B.U, 161B.U to 493B.U, 715B,U 222B.U but breakdown was decreased 125B.U to 76B.U with the increase of storage period. Gel consistency of rice stored was decreased 44.7mm at enterance time to 39,9mm 4years later. Fatty acid was increased remarkably 4.5KOHmg/100g to 24.4KOHmg/100g. Germination ratio and germ activity of paddy during long-term storage were decreased 97%, 100% to 0%, 0.4% respectively, With the increase of storage period contaminated paddy by molds increased and its by bacteria decreas-ed.

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Long-Term Trend of Surface Wind Speed in Korea: Anemometer Height Adjustment (한반도 지상 풍속의 장기 추세 분석: 풍속계 고도 보정)

  • Choi, Yeong-Ju;Park, Chang-Hyun;Son, Seok-Woo;Lee, Jae-Won;Hong, Dong-Chan
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.101-112
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    • 2021
  • The long-term trend of surface wind speed in Korea is examined for 31 KMA weather stations from 1985 to 2019. Most stations, except Daegwallyeong, have several times of anemometer height changes from tens of centimeters to several meters. To minimize such height change effect on long-term wind trend, the present study adjusts anemometer height in each station to the standard height of 10 m using the power-law wind profile. This adjustment results in non-negligible trend change. For instance, the increasing surface wind speed at Suwon station, which has six times of anemometer height changes in a range of 0.8 m to 20 m, is weakened up to 67% and becomes statistically insignificant. Likewise, the decreasing trend at Andong station, with three times of anemometer height changes in a range of 10 m to 15.5 m, is weakened up to 66%. A similar weakening in long-term trend is observed in most stations regardless of positive and negative trends. However, due to the cancellation between weakened negative trends and weakened positive trends, the station-averaged wind speed trend in Korea does not change much. This result suggests that anemometer height adjustment is crucial for evaluating local wind speed trend but its impact on nation-wide wind speed trend is rather minor.