• 제목/요약/키워드: Lifetime prediction model

검색결과 79건 처리시간 0.024초

전동차 인버터 구동용 전해콘덴서의 신뢰도예측과 수명 연구 (A Study on the Reliability Prediction and Lifetime of the Electrolytic Condenser for EMU Inverter)

  • 한재현;배창한;구정서
    • 한국안전학회지
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    • 제29권1호
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    • pp.7-14
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    • 2014
  • Inverter module, which feeds the converted power to the traction motor for EMU. Consists of the power semiconductors with their gate drive unit(GDU)s and the control computer for driving, voltage, current and speed controls. Electrolytic condenser, connected to the gate drive unit and a core component to drive the power semiconductor, has problems such as reduction in lifetime and malfunction caused by electrical and mechanical characteristic changes from heat generation during high speed switching for generation of stable power. In this study, To check the service life of electrolytic condenser, the test was carried out in two ways. First, In the case of accelerated life testing of condenser, the Arrhenius model is a way of life testing. Another way is to analyze the reliability of the failure data by the method of parametric data analysis. Eventually, life time by accelerated life test than a method of failure data analysis(Weibull distribution) was found to be slightly larger output.

Statistical analysis on the fluence factor of surveillance test data of Korean nuclear power plants

  • Lee, Gyeong-Geun;Kim, Min-Chul;Yoon, Ji-Hyun;Lee, Bong-Sang;Lim, Sangyeob;Kwon, Junhyun
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제49권4호
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    • pp.760-768
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    • 2017
  • The transition temperature shift (TTS) of the reactor pressure vessel materials is an important factor that determines the lifetime of a nuclear power plant. The prediction of the TTS at the end of a plant's lifespan is calculated based on the equation of Regulatory Guide 1.99 revision 2 (RG1.99/2) from the US. The fluence factor in the equation was expressed as a power function, and the exponent value was determined by the early surveillance data in the US. Recently, an advanced approach to estimate the TTS was proposed in various countries for nuclear power plants, and Korea is considering the development of a new TTS model. In this study, the TTS trend of the Korean surveillance test results was analyzed using a nonlinear regression model and a mixed-effect model based on the power function. The nonlinear regression model yielded a similar exponent as the power function in the fluence compared with RG1.99/2. The mixed-effect model had a higher value of the exponent and showed superior goodness of fit compared with the nonlinear regression model. Compared with RG1.99/2 and RG1.99/3, the mixed-effect model provided a more accurate prediction of the TTS.

The Energy Efficient for Wireless Sensor Network Using The Base Station Location

  • Baral, Shiv Raj;Song, Young-Il;Jung, Kyedong;Lee, Jong-Yong
    • International Journal of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • 제7권1호
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    • pp.23-29
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    • 2015
  • Energy constraints of wireless sensor networks are an important challenge. Data Transmission requires energy. Distance between origin and destination has an important role in energy consumption. In addition, the location of base station has a large impact on energy consumption and a specific method not proposed for it. In addition, a obtain model for location of base station proposed. Also a model for distributed clustering is presented by cluster heads. Eventually, a combination of discussed ideas is proposed to improve the energy consumption. The proposed ideas have been implemented over the LEACH-C protocol. Evaluation results show that the proposed methods have a better performance in energy consumption and lifetime of the network in comparison with similar methods.

온도상태에 따른 신축관 이음의 수명예측에 관한 연구 (A Study for Lifespan Prediction of Expansion by Temperature Status)

  • 오정수;이봉수
    • 한국산학기술학회논문지
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    • 제19권10호
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    • pp.424-429
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    • 2018
  • 본 연구에서는 플랜트 설비 부품류 중 충격에 취약한 신축관 이음을 대상으로 수충격 발생 시 신축관 이음의 신축량을 유압식 액추에이터의 작동데이터로 적용하여 진동내구 시험을 수행하였다. 진동내구 시험 시 내구수명의 가속 요소로 신축관 내부의 온도상태를 가정하고 온도상태를 $30^{\circ}C$부터 $50^{\circ}C$$65^{\circ}C$로 가속화한 진동내구 시험을 진행하였다. 각 조건별 온도상태별 수명데이터들은 아레니우스 모델식을 따른다고 가정하고 각 수명데이터를 선형화하여 선형식의 상수값과 활성화 에너지 계수를 유도하였다. 또한 유도된 모델식으로부터 $85^{\circ}C$ 경우의 예측 수명과 $85^{\circ}C$ 온도상태에서의 시험 수명결과와 비교를 통해 작은 편차 범위내에서 유도된 모델식의 유효성을 검증하였다. 한편, 시험 중과 시험 후 발견된 신축관의 고장모드에서는 누수 및 벨로우즈 부 내부 슬리부의 이탈과 내부변형 등을 확인할 수 있었다. 향후 본 연구는 진동내구 수명의 가속요인인 온도상태 외 압력상태 등 다양한 수명변수를 적용한 복합수명예측 모델식을 개발하고 검증할 예정이다.

Service life prediction of chloride-corrosive concrete under fatigue load

  • Yang, Tao;Guan, Bowen;Liu, Guoqiang;Li, Jing;Pan, Yuanyuan;Jia, Yanshun;Zhao, Yongli
    • Advances in concrete construction
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    • 제8권1호
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    • pp.55-64
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    • 2019
  • Chloride corrosion has become the main factor of reducing the service life of reinforced concrete structures. The object of this paper is to propose a theoretical model that predicts the service life of chloride-corrosive concrete under fatigue load. In the process of modeling, the concrete is divided into two parts, microcrack and matrix. Taking the variation of mcirocrack area caused by fatigue load into account, an equation of chloride diffusion coefficient under fatigue load is established, and then the predictive model is developed based on Fick's second law. This model has an analytic solution and is reasonable in comparison to previous studies. Finally, some factors (chloride diffusion coefficient, surface chloride concentration and fatigue parameter) are analyzed to further investigate this model. The results indicate: the time to pit-to-crack transition and time to crack growth should not be neglected when predicting service life of concrete in strong corrosive condition; the type of fatigue loads also has a great impact on lifetime of concrete. In generally, this model is convenient to predict service life of chloride-corrosive concrete with different water to cement ratio, under different corrosive condition and under different types of fatigue load.

Fatigue life prediction for radial truck tires using a global-local finite element method

  • Jeong, Kyoung Moon;Beom, Hyeon Gyu;Kim, Kee-Woon;Cho, Jin-Rae
    • Interaction and multiscale mechanics
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    • 제4권1호
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    • pp.35-47
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    • 2011
  • A global-local finite element modeling technique is employed in this paper to predict the fatigue life of radial truck tires. This paper assumes that a flaw exists inside the tire, in the local model. The local model uses an FEM fracture analysis in conjunction with a global-local technique in ABAQUS. A 3D finite element local model calculates the energy release rate at the belt edge. Using the analysis of the local model, a study of the energy release rate is performed in the crack region and used to determine the crack growth rate analysis. The result considers how different driving conditions contribute to the detrimental effects of belt separation in truck tire failure. The calculation of the total mileage on four sizes of radial truck tires has performed on the belt edge separation. The effect of the change of belt width design on the fatigue lifetime of tire belt separation is discussed.

CalTOX 모델을 이용한 대산 석유화학단지의 활동단계에 따른 벤젠 흡입 노출평가 (Prediction of Inhalation Exposure to Benzene by Activity Stage Using a Caltox Model at the Daesan Petrochemical Complex in South Korea)

  • 이진헌;이민우;박창용;박상현;송영호;김옥;신지훈
    • 한국환경보건학회지
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    • 제48권3호
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    • pp.151-158
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    • 2022
  • Background: Chemical emissions in the environment have rapidly increased with the accelerated industrialization taking place in recent decades. Residents of industrial complexes are concerned about the health risks posed by chemical exposure. Objectives: This study was performed to suggest modeling methods that take into account multimedia and multi-pathways in human exposure and risk assessment. Methods: The concentration of benzene emitted at industrial complexes in Daesan, South Korea and the exposure of local residents was estimated using the Caltox model. The amount of human exposure based on inhalation rate was stochastically predicted for various activity stages such as resting, normal walking, and fast walking. Results: The coefficient of determination (R2) for the CalTOX model efficiency was 0.9676 and the root-mean-square error (RMSE) was 0.0035, indicating good agreement between predictions and measurements. However, the efficiency index (EI) appeared to be a negative value at -1094.4997. This can be explained as the atmospheric concentration being calculated only from the emissions from industrial facilities in the study area. In the human exposure assessment, the higher the inhalation rate percentile value, the higher the inhalation rate and lifetime average daily dose (LADD) at each activity step. Conclusions: Prediction using the Caltox model might be appropriate for comparing with actual measurements. The LADD of females was higher ratio with an increase in inhalation rate than those of males. This finding would imply that females may be more susceptible to benzene as their inhalation rate increases.

이차원 고객충성도 세그먼트 기반의 고객이탈예측 방법론 (A Methodology of Customer Churn Prediction based on Two-Dimensional Loyalty Segmentation)

  • 김형수;홍승우
    • 지능정보연구
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    • 제26권4호
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    • pp.111-126
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    • 2020
  • CRM의 하위 연구 분야로 진행되었던 고객이탈예측은 최근 비즈니스 머신러닝 기술의 발전으로 인해 빅데이터 기반의 퍼포먼스 마케팅 주제로 더욱 그 중요도가 높아지고 있다. 그러나, 기존의 관련 연구는 예측 모형 자체의 성능을 개선시키는 것이 주요 목적이었으며, 전체적인 고객이탈예측 프로세스를 개선하고자 하는 연구는 상대적으로 부족했다. 본 연구는 성공적인 고객이탈관리가 모형 자체의 성능보다는 전체 프로세스의 개선을 통해 더 잘 이루어질 수 있다는 가정하에, 이차원 고객충성도 세그먼트 기반의 고객이탈예측 프로세스 (CCP/2DL: Customer Churn Prediction based on Two-Dimensional Loyalty segmentation)를 제안한다. CCP/2DL은 양방향, 즉 양적 및 질적 로열티 기반의 고객세분화를 시행하고, 고객세그먼트들을 이탈패턴에 따라 2차 그룹핑을 실시한 뒤, 이탈패턴 그룹별 이질적인 이탈예측 모형을 독립적으로 적용하는 일련의 이탈예측 프로세스이다. 제안한 이탈예측 프로세스의 상대적 우수성을 평가하기 위해 기존의 범용이탈예측 프로세스와 클러스터링 기반 이탈예측 프로세스와의 성능 비교를 수행하였다. 글로벌 NGO 단체인 A사의 협력으로 후원자 데이터를 활용한 분석과 검증을 수행했으며, 제안한 CCP/2DL의 성능이 다른 이탈예측 방법론보다 우수한 성능을 보이는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 이탈예측 프로세스는 이탈예측에도 효과적일 뿐만 아니라, 다양한 고객통찰력을 확보하고, 관련된 다른 퍼포먼스 마케팅 활동을 수행할 수 있는 전략적 기반이 될 수 있다는 점에서 연구의 의의를 찾을 수 있다.

Prescreening of Environmental Conditions for Prediction of Severe Operation Condition of Offshore Structures

  • Lim, Dong-Hyun;Kim, Yonghwan;Kim, Taeyoung
    • Journal of Advanced Research in Ocean Engineering
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    • 제1권4호
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    • pp.252-267
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    • 2015
  • Offshore structures might encounter several environmental and operating conditions during their lifetime of several decades. In order to predict the dynamic behavior of offshore structures, several simulation cases should be considered to deal with all the combinations of ocean environments and operating conditions. Because a sophisticated time-domain coupled dynamic analysis requires an extremely large amount of computational time to handle all the possible cases, an efficient preliminary process to prescreen the probability of severe environmental conditions can be helpful in downsizing the number of simulation cases and computational effort. In this study, a prescreening procedure to reduce the number of environmental conditions for dynamic analyses of offshore structures is proposed. For the efficiency of the procedure, frequency-domain theories were adopted to estimate the platform offset, using quasi-static analyses in line tension prediction. The results were validated by comparing with those of dynamic analysis coupled between platform and mooring lines, and reasonable agreement was observed. In addition, the characteristics of environmental conditions classified to be severe to the system were investigated through the application of the developed prescreening scheme to several actual environmental conditions.

철도차량 차체 가스용접 이음재의 가속수명예측과 신뢰도 평가 (Reliability Assessment and Accelerated Life Prediction of Gas Welded Joint in the Rail Road Car Body (1. Plug and Ring Type))

  • 백승엽
    • Journal of Welding and Joining
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    • 제28권1호
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    • pp.77-85
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    • 2010
  • Stainless steel sheets are widely used as the structure material for the railroad cars and the commercial vehicles. These kinds structures used stainless steel sheets are commonly fabricated by using the gas welding. Gas welding is very important and useful technology in fabrication of a railroad car and vehicles structure.However fatigue strength of the gas welded joints is considerably lower than parent metal due to stress concentration at the weld, fatigue strength evaluation of gas welded joints are very important to evaluate the reliability and durability of railroad cars and to establish a criterion of long life fatigue design. In this paper, $({\Delta}{\sigma}_a)_R-N_f$ curve were obtained by fatigue tests. Using these results, the accelerated life test(ALT) was conducted. From the experimental results, an acceleration model was derived and acceleration factors are estimated. So it is intended to obtain the useful information for the fatigue lifetime of plug and ring gas welded joints and data analysis by statistic reliability method, to save time and cost, and to develop optimum accelerated life prediction plans.