• Title/Summary/Keyword: Life time prediction

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Extension Method of Association Rules Using Social Network Analysis (사회연결망 분석을 활용한 연관규칙 확장기법)

  • Lee, Dongwon
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.111-126
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    • 2017
  • Recommender systems based on association rule mining significantly contribute to seller's sales by reducing consumers' time to search for products that they want. Recommendations based on the frequency of transactions such as orders can effectively screen out the products that are statistically marketable among multiple products. A product with a high possibility of sales, however, can be omitted from the recommendation if it records insufficient number of transactions at the beginning of the sale. Products missing from the associated recommendations may lose the chance of exposure to consumers, which leads to a decline in the number of transactions. In turn, diminished transactions may create a vicious circle of lost opportunity to be recommended. Thus, initial sales are likely to remain stagnant for a certain period of time. Products that are susceptible to fashion or seasonality, such as clothing, may be greatly affected. This study was aimed at expanding association rules to include into the list of recommendations those products whose initial trading frequency of transactions is low despite the possibility of high sales. The particular purpose is to predict the strength of the direct connection of two unconnected items through the properties of the paths located between them. An association between two items revealed in transactions can be interpreted as the interaction between them, which can be expressed as a link in a social network whose nodes are items. The first step calculates the centralities of the nodes in the middle of the paths that indirectly connect the two nodes without direct connection. The next step identifies the number of the paths and the shortest among them. These extracts are used as independent variables in the regression analysis to predict future connection strength between the nodes. The strength of the connection between the two nodes of the model, which is defined by the number of nodes between the two nodes, is measured after a certain period of time. The regression analysis results confirm that the number of paths between the two products, the distance of the shortest path, and the number of neighboring items connected to the products are significantly related to their potential strength. This study used actual order transaction data collected for three months from February to April in 2016 from an online commerce company. To reduce the complexity of analytics as the scale of the network grows, the analysis was performed only on miscellaneous goods. Two consecutively purchased items were chosen from each customer's transactions to obtain a pair of antecedent and consequent, which secures a link needed for constituting a social network. The direction of the link was determined in the order in which the goods were purchased. Except for the last ten days of the data collection period, the social network of associated items was built for the extraction of independent variables. The model predicts the number of links to be connected in the next ten days from the explanatory variables. Of the 5,711 previously unconnected links, 611 were newly connected for the last ten days. Through experiments, the proposed model demonstrated excellent predictions. Of the 571 links that the proposed model predicts, 269 were confirmed to have been connected. This is 4.4 times more than the average of 61, which can be found without any prediction model. This study is expected to be useful regarding industries whose new products launch quickly with short life cycles, since their exposure time is critical. Also, it can be used to detect diseases that are rarely found in the early stages of medical treatment because of the low incidence of outbreaks. Since the complexity of the social networking analysis is sensitive to the number of nodes and links that make up the network, this study was conducted in a particular category of miscellaneous goods. Future research should consider that this condition may limit the opportunity to detect unexpected associations between products belonging to different categories of classification.

An Effect of the Self-Regulation Program for Hypertensives -Synthesis & testing of Orem and Bandura's theory- (본태성 고혈압 환자의 자가간호증진을 위한 자기조절 프로그램 효과 -Orem이론과 Bandura이론의 합성과 검증-)

  • Park, Young-Im;Hong, Yeo-Shin
    • Research in Community and Public Health Nursing
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.109-129
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    • 1994
  • Chronic health problems has become a major concern and challenge to the health care professionals today. Especially hypertension, one of the leading primary cause of death in Korea, is a typical chronic disease requiring adequate and continuous management. Though these hypertensives need to maintain desirable health practice by themselves for their life time, many previous studies indicated that most of the essential hypertensives have no specific symptoms and thus, reluctant to follow appropriate medical regimens causing the condition further aggravated and complicated. Self-care is an essential factor that keeps chronic patients in control of their health and wellness. Thus this study was conducted to identify the effect of the comprehensive self-regulation program as a nursing intervention on the promotion self-care performance and improvement in physical parameters of hypertensives. For this purpose, a one group quasi-experimental research with pre and post test design was used. The subjects of the study was consisted of thirty persons with mild or moderate essential hypertension from two companies in Cheong-ju city. The whole program was carried out from October, 1993 to February, 1994. The self-regulation program was consisted with group education on hypertension and self-care, self-regulation including the blood pressure self-monitoring and recording, recording of daily self-care activities, and encouraging and reinforcing self-efficacy through verbal persuation and enactive attainment. The subjects were asked to measure their own blood pressure by themselves twice per day and to record blood pressure and the daily self-care performance according to the instructions provided during the whole period of 9 weeks. The instruments used for data collection in this study were as follows : 1) Instruments used for measuring the knowledge about hypertension, multiple health locus of control, and perceived benifits and barriers were adapted from previous studies and modified by author to be fit for the subjects. 2) Self-efficacy scale and self-care performance record were developed by the author. 3) Physiological parameters included systolic / diastolic blood pressure, body weight, level of blood cholesterol, and 24hour ambulatory blood pressure. The post-experimental Cronbach's Alpha as the reliability test of scales were 0.703-0.897, an appropriate level of confidence. The effect of the program was analyzed by experimental stages ; the first week, the fifth week, and the ninth week since the experimental imput began. Data were analyzed by the SPSS PC+ program with paired t-test and t-test, repeated measure ANOVA, and pearson's correlation to de termine the effect of program. The results were as follows : 1) After the self-regulation program, scores on knowledge(t=-2.41, p=.011), perceived self-efficacy (F=5.60, p=.001), self-care performance(F=22.31, p=.0001) were significantly higher than those before the program. 2) After the program, both systolic and diastolic blood pressure were significantly lower than those before the program(F=10.89 -13.11, p=.0001). However in 24hour ambulatory blood pressure, systolic mean pressure was nearly significantly lower, but not in diastolic mean pressure. 3) After the program, the body weight was significant decresed(t=5.53, p=.0001), but the blood cholesterol level was not decreased significantly except in those cases with higher cholesterol level. 4) There were significant relationships between changes in self-care performance and diastolic pressure at 1st week (r=.3389, p=.033) and changes in self-care performance and systolic pressure at 9th week(r=.3651, p=.024). 5) There were significant relationship between perceived self-efficacy and self-care performance at 5th week(r=.5313, p=.001) and 9th week (r=.3026, p=.052). 6) After the program, internal health locus of control and perceived benefits did not show significant change, but perceived barriers was significantly lower than those before the program (t=3.57, p=.0001). From the above results, it can be concluded that 1) The self-regulation program is an effective nursing strategy to promote self-care performance of hypertensives and to lower the blood pressure. Thus this program can be recommended in the management of the hypertensives in workplaces and community settings. 2) The synthesis of Orem's self-care theory and Bandura's self-regulation & self-efficacy theory in this study was proved to enhance explanation and prediction of the change of self-care behavior. Thus the result of the study would contribute in development of the self-care theory and an expansion of practice-theory.

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The Impact of Milk Production Level on Profit Traits of Holstein Dairy Cattle in Korea (국내 Holstein종 젖소의 생산수준이 젖소의 수익형질에 미치는 효과)

  • Do, Changhee;Park, Suhun;Cho, Kwang-Hyun;Choi, Yunho;Choi, Taejeong;Park, Byungho;Yun, Hobaek;Lee, Donghee
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.55 no.5
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    • pp.343-349
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    • 2013
  • Data including 1,372,050 milk records pertaining to 438,019 cows from 1983 to 2011 collected during performance tests conducted by the National Livestock Cooperative Dairy Improvement Center were used to calculate milk income and profit of individuals and investigate the effects of production levels of early lactation (parity 1 and 2, respectively). Individuals with a moderate level of early lactation stayed longer in herds. Among parity 1, the 9,000 kg or higher group had a lower mean number of lactations than the overall mean of 3.13. The 7,000 kg or lower and 10,000 kg or higher groups had lower mean life time milking days than the overall mean of 1,076.8 days. Standard deviations of lifetime traits tended to decrease as production levels increased. For parity 2, the 11,000 kg or higher group had a lower mean number of lactation than the overall mean of 3.43. The lifetime milking days was highest in the 12,000 kg group (1,212.0 days), and generally smaller in the lower groups. Profit increased as the production level of groups increased for both parity 1 and 2. In groups with low production levels, profit of parity 1 was higher than that of parity 2, while the reverse was true in groups with high production levels. These results suggest that individuals in the low production groups had a greater likelihood to be culled due to reproductive or other problems. Furthermore, the accuracy of the prediction of lifetime profit of individuals with a milk yield of 305 days seems to be higher for parity 2 than parity 1; therefore, it is desirable to predict lifetime profit using the 305d milk yield of parity 2. In conclusion, breeding goals are based on many factors in functions for the estimation of profit; however, production levels during early lactation (parity 1 and 2) can be used as indicators of profit to extend profitability.

The Generation of Westerly Waves by Sobaek Mountains (소백산맥에 의한 서풍 파동 발생)

  • Kim, Jin wook;Youn, Daeok
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.24-34
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    • 2017
  • The westerly waves generation is described in the advanced earth science textbook used at high school as follows: as westerly wind approaches and blows over large mountains, the air flow shows wave motions in downwind side, which can be explained by the conservation of potential vorticity. However, there has been no case study showing the phenomena of the mesoscale westerly waves with observational data in the area of small mountains in Korea. And thus the wind speed and time persistency of westerly winds along with the width and length of mountains have never been studied to explain the generation of the westerly waves. As a first step, we assured the westerly waves generated in the downwind side of Sobaek mountains based on surface station wind data nearby. Furthermore, the critical or minimum wind velocity of the westerly wind over Sobaek mountains to generate the downwind wave were derived and calcuated tobe about $0.6m\;s^{-1}$ for Sobaek mountains, which means that the westerly waves could be generated in most cases of westerly blowing over the mountains. Using surface station data and 4-dimensional assimilation data of RDAPS (Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System) provided by Korea Meteorological Agency, we also analyzed cases of westerly waves occurrence and life cycle in the downwind side of Sobaek mountains for a year of 2014. The westerly waves occurred in meso-${\beta}$ or -${\gamma}$ scales. The westerly waves generated by the mountains disappeared gradually with wind speed decreasing. The occurrence frequency of the vorticity with meso-${\beta}$ scale got to be higher when the stronger westerly wind blew. When we extended the spatial range of the analysis, phenomena of westerly waves were also observed in the downwind side of Yensan mountains in Northeastern China. Our current work will be a study material to help students understand the atmospheric phenomena perturbed by mountains.

A prediction study on the number of emergency patients with ASTHMA according to the concentration of air pollutants (대기오염물질 농도에 따른 천식 응급환자 수 예측 연구)

  • Han Joo Lee;Min Kyu Jee;Cheong Won Kim
    • Journal of Service Research and Studies
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.63-75
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    • 2023
  • Due to the development of industry, interest in air pollutants has increased. Air pollutants have affected various fields such as environmental pollution and global warming. Among them, environmental diseases are one of the fields affected by air pollutants. Air pollutants can affect the human body's skin or respiratory tract due to their small molecular size. As a result, various studies on air pollutants and environmental diseases have been conducted. Asthma, part of an environmental disease, can be life-threatening if symptoms worsen and cause asthma attacks, and in the case of adult asthma, it is difficult to cure once it occurs. Factors that worsen asthma include particulate matter and air pollution. Asthma is an increasing prevalence worldwide. In this paper, we study how air pollutants correlate with the number of emergency room admissions in asthma patients and predict the number of future asthma emergency patients using highly correlated air pollutants. Air pollutants used concentrations of five pollutants: sulfur dioxide(SO2), carbon monoxide(CO), ozone(O3), nitrogen dioxide(NO2), and fine dust(PM10), and environmental diseases used data on the number of hospitalizations of asthma patients in the emergency room. Data on the number of emergency patients of air pollutants and asthma were used for a total of 5 years from January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2017. The model made predictions using two models, Informer and LTSF-Linear, and performance indicators of MAE, MAPE, and RMSE were used to measure the performance of the model. The results were compared by making predictions for both cases including and not including the number of emergency patients. This paper presents air pollutants that improve the model's performance in predicting the number of asthma emergency patients using Informer and LTSF-Linear models.

A Study on Web-based Technology Valuation System (웹기반 지능형 기술가치평가 시스템에 관한 연구)

  • Sung, Tae-Eung;Jun, Seung-Pyo;Kim, Sang-Gook;Park, Hyun-Woo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.23-46
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    • 2017
  • Although there have been cases of evaluating the value of specific companies or projects which have centralized on developed countries in North America and Europe from the early 2000s, the system and methodology for estimating the economic value of individual technologies or patents has been activated on and on. Of course, there exist several online systems that qualitatively evaluate the technology's grade or the patent rating of the technology to be evaluated, as in 'KTRS' of the KIBO and 'SMART 3.1' of the Korea Invention Promotion Association. However, a web-based technology valuation system, referred to as 'STAR-Value system' that calculates the quantitative values of the subject technology for various purposes such as business feasibility analysis, investment attraction, tax/litigation, etc., has been officially opened and recently spreading. In this study, we introduce the type of methodology and evaluation model, reference information supporting these theories, and how database associated are utilized, focusing various modules and frameworks embedded in STAR-Value system. In particular, there are six valuation methods, including the discounted cash flow method (DCF), which is a representative one based on the income approach that anticipates future economic income to be valued at present, and the relief-from-royalty method, which calculates the present value of royalties' where we consider the contribution of the subject technology towards the business value created as the royalty rate. We look at how models and related support information (technology life, corporate (business) financial information, discount rate, industrial technology factors, etc.) can be used and linked in a intelligent manner. Based on the classification of information such as International Patent Classification (IPC) or Korea Standard Industry Classification (KSIC) for technology to be evaluated, the STAR-Value system automatically returns meta data such as technology cycle time (TCT), sales growth rate and profitability data of similar company or industry sector, weighted average cost of capital (WACC), indices of industrial technology factors, etc., and apply adjustment factors to them, so that the result of technology value calculation has high reliability and objectivity. Furthermore, if the information on the potential market size of the target technology and the market share of the commercialization subject refers to data-driven information, or if the estimated value range of similar technologies by industry sector is provided from the evaluation cases which are already completed and accumulated in database, the STAR-Value is anticipated that it will enable to present highly accurate value range in real time by intelligently linking various support modules. Including the explanation of the various valuation models and relevant primary variables as presented in this paper, the STAR-Value system intends to utilize more systematically and in a data-driven way by supporting the optimal model selection guideline module, intelligent technology value range reasoning module, and similar company selection based market share prediction module, etc. In addition, the research on the development and intelligence of the web-based STAR-Value system is significant in that it widely spread the web-based system that can be used in the validation and application to practices of the theoretical feasibility of the technology valuation field, and it is expected that it could be utilized in various fields of technology commercialization.