• Title/Summary/Keyword: Life Estimation

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A Comparison of Reliability Factors of Software Reliability Model Following Lifetime Distribution Dependent on Pareto and Erlang Shape Parameters (파레토 및 어랑 형상모수에 의존한 수명분포를 따르는 소프트웨어 신뢰성 모형에 대한 신뢰도 특성요인 비교 연구)

  • Kim, Hee Cheul;Moon, Song Chul
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.71-80
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    • 2017
  • Software reliability is one of the most elementary and important problems in software development In order to find the software failure occurrence, the instantaneous failure rate function in the Poisson process can have a constant, incremental or decreasing tendency independently of the failure time. In this study, we compared the reliability performance of the software reliability model using the parameters of Pareto life distribution with the intensity decreasing pattern and the shape parameter of Erlang life distribution with the intensity increasing and decreasing pattern in the software product testing. In order to identify the software failure environment, the parametric estimation was applied to the maximum likelihood estimation method. Therefore, in this paper, we compare and evaluate software reliability by applying software failure time data. The reliability of the Erlang and Pareto life models is shown to be higher than that of the Pareto lifetime distribution model when the shape parameter is higher and the Erlang model is more reliable when the shape parameter is higher. Through this study, the software design department will be able to help the software design by applying various life distribution and shape parameters, and providing basic knowledge using software failure analysis.

Storage Life Estimation of Next Infrared Flare Material (차기 적외선 섬광제 저장수명 예측)

  • Back, Seungjun;Son, Youngkap;Kim, Namjin;Kwon, Taesoo
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.311-318
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    • 2016
  • This paper shows storage life estimation of next IR(infrared) flare material through accelerated degradation tests. Three temperature conditions for the accelerated degradation tests are 55, 65 and $75^{\circ}C$. Six performances of IR flare material are burning time, IR peak/continuous Intensity, total energy of near/mid-IR and color ratio, and they were measured after the tests. Storage life of the IR flare material was estimated through both analyzing the degradation data of those performances and applying distribution-based degradation models to the data. Over 30 years of storage life at $20^{\circ}C$ is estimated in terms of IR peak intensity with reliability 0.99 and confidence level 99 %. Additionally, 10 years of storage period at $21^{\circ}C$ would be equivalent to 68 days of accelerated test at $65^{\circ}C$ from the activation energy in Arrhenius model.

A Study on the Prediction of Fatigue Life in 2024-T3 Aluminium using X-ray Half-Value Breadth (X선 반가폭을 이용한 Al 2024-T3 합금의 피로수명예측에 관한 연구)

  • 조석수;김순호;주원식
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.145-152
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    • 2000
  • X-ray diffraction method detects change of crystal lattice distance under material surface using diffraction angle 2$\theta$. This technique can be applied to the behavior on slip band and micro crack due to material degradation. The relation between half-value breadth and number of cycle has three stages which constitute rapid decrease in initial number of cycles, slight decrease in middle number of cycles and rapid decrease in final number of cycles. The ratio of half-value breadth takes a constant value on B/B$_{0}$-N diagram with loading condition except early part of fatigue life. The ratio of half-value breadth B/B$_{0}$ with respect to number of cycle to failure N$_{f}$ has linear behavior on B/B$_{0}$-log N$_{f}$ diagram. Therefore, in this paper the estimation of fatigue life by average gradient method has much less estimated mean error than the estimation of fatigue life by log B/B$_{0}$-log N/N$_{f}$ relation.elation.ation.

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A Study on Improving Reliability of Durability Life Estimation for Excavator Fuel Tank Mounting Using Equivalent S-N Curve Method (등가 S-N 선도 모형에서의 굴착기 연료탱크 마운팅부 내구수명 예측 신뢰성 향상 방안 연구)

  • Lee, Sung-Won;Jeong, Jin-Wook;Kim, Seong-Jae
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Manufacturing Process Engineers
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    • v.20 no.5
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    • pp.17-26
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    • 2021
  • It is challenging to estimate the fatigue life of construction equipment consisting of a welded joint using field structure test owing to the uncertainty of the S-N curve. IIW recommends different S-N curves for various welded joint types. However, there is no way to define an appropriate curve considering complex design shape and strain gauge characteristics. This paper proposes an equivalent S-N curve method based on the relationship between IIW effective notch stress and virtual stress using finite element analysis. Moreover, a case study was conducted for the excavator fuel tank. The proposed method is expected to enhance accuracy and consistency in calculating the fatigue life for the welded structure of construction equipment.

A Study on the Mid-Long Term Direction for Development of Software Cost Estimation Guidelines (소프트웨어 사업대가기준 중장기 발전 방향에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Woo-Je;Kwon, Moon-Ju
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.139-155
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    • 2010
  • The purpose of this paper is to develop a framework of software cost estimation guidelines and to derive a mid-long term direction for development of the software cost estimation guidelines. In this paper, all the steps in the software life cycle are researched in the view of cost estimation, and current software cost estimation guidelines and models have been reviewed and analysed first. Second, a plan to separate unit cost per function point from standard procedure in current software cost estimation guidelines is presented to strengthen maket self-regulating function as a mid-long term developmental direction for software cost estimation guidelines. Third, construction of cost repository, making standard procedure for software cost estimation guidelines, development of various kinds of software cost estimation models, and a system for experts on software cost estimation are presented as the prerequisites for the future model framework of software cost estimation guidelines. Finally a roadmap for establishing the future model is proposed.

A Study on the Modeling of PoF Estimation for Probabilistic Risk Assessment based on Bayesian Method (확률론적 위험도평가를 위한 베이지안 기반의 파손확률 추정 모델링 연구)

  • Kim, Keun Won;Shin, Dae Han;Choi, Joo-Ho;Shin, KiSu
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.41 no.8
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    • pp.619-624
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    • 2013
  • To predict the probabilistic service life, statistical factors should be included to consider the uncertainty of parameters. Generally the probabilistic analysis is one of the common methods to account the uncertainty of parameters on the structural failure. In order to apply probabilistic analysis on the deterministic life analysis, it would be necessary to introduce Probability of Failure(PoF) and conduct risk assessment. In this work, we have studied probabilistic risk assessment of aircraft structures by using PoF approach. To achieve this goal, the Bayesian method was utilized to model PoF estimation since this method is known as the proper method to express the uncertainty of parameters. A series of proof tests were also conducted in order to verify the result of PoF estimation. The results from this efforts showed that the PoF estimation model can calculate quantitatively the value of PoF. Furthermore effectiveness of risk assessment approach for the aircraft structures was also demonstrated.

Improved Function Point Measurement Model for Software Size Estimation (소프트웨어 규모 산정을 위한 개선된 기능 점수 측정 모델)

  • Jung, In-Yong;Woo, Doug-Je;Park, Jin-Hyeong;Jeong, Chang-Sung
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.115-126
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    • 2009
  • A software size estimation has to be analyzed in the beginning of the software life-cycle and helpful to the prediction of its size and cost. The software cost has been calculated by estimating software size from the user's point of view since the function point method based on international standards was introduced for the estimation of software size in 2004. However, the current function point method is not easy to be exploited for unfamiliar user, and has a problem that it cannot estimate the proper size for software such as engineering software, scientific calculations and simulation with complicated internal computational logic. This paper presents an improved model which can simplify the existing function point measurement procedure, and perform the estimation of software size in easy and fast way at the initial stage of project. Moreover, it presents a mathematical weighted value calculation model which can solve the problem of the fixed complexity weighted value and reflect the characteristics of organization as its data is pilled up. Our evaluation shows that the presented model has advantage that it can measure the size more rapidly than the existing FPA methods and has more correlation with LOC.

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Problems in methodology for estimating cost of milk production and its improvement (우유생산비 조사 및 계산상의 문제점과 합리화방안 연구)

  • Chun, Ryong;Seo, Seong-Won;Park, Jong-Soo
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.227-242
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    • 2012
  • Accurate estimation of milk production cost is very important for dairy farmers in establishing strategies for business management (e.g. planning a program for milk production, deciding the size of business and investment, determining the milk price for sale). Since the estimated cost of milk production is used as an important index to determine the basal price of milk in Korea, there has been much interest and debate on the method used to estimate milk production cost among the stakeholder. This study was thus carried out to identify problems in the current methodology for estimating cost of milk production, and to find a better way to improve it. We propose several alternatives and better ways to improve the current method for estimating cost of milk production. Estimation of the income and cost per head should be based on the number of cattle converted to grown cows. Cost estimation per liter of milk should be made for both whole milk and 3.4% milk fat corrected milk. The value of purchased cows and raised replacement heifers should be the same as their market value. The productive life span of cows should be less 4 years, and the terminal or salvage value of cows needs to be 30 to 40% less than her initial value. When calculating depreciation of cows over the productive life span, however, the salvage value should be 0 or 1 Korean won. On calculating labor costs, the farm labor wage corresponding to the average wage of nonfarm industrial workers should be assumed. Beside of these, better estimation procedures for other items are also given. The proposed methods from this study should improve the accuracy of estimation of milk production cost and help to achieve consensus among the stakeholder.

DEVELOPMENT OF AN ACCELERATED LIFE TEST PROCEDURE FOR COOLING FAN MOTORS

  • Shin, W.G.;Lee, S.H.;Song, Y.S.
    • International Journal of Automotive Technology
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    • v.7 no.6
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    • pp.757-762
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    • 2006
  • Reliability of automotive parts has been one of the most interesting fields in the automotive industry. Especially, a small DC motor was issued because of the increasing adoption for passengers' safety and convenience. For several years, small DC motors have been studied and some problems of a life test method were found out. The field condition was not considered enough in the old life test method. It also needed a lot of test time. For precise life estimation and accelerated life test, new life test procedure was developed based on measured field condition. The vibration condition on vehicle and latent force on fan motor shaft were measured and correlated with each other. We converted the acceleration data into the load data and calculated the equivalent load from integrated value. We found the relationship which can be used for accelerated life test without changing the severity by using different loading factors.

Nonparametric Estimation of Bivariate Mean Residual Life Function under Univariate Censoring

  • Dong-Myung Jeong;Jae-Kee Song;Joong Kweon Sohn
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.133-144
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    • 1996
  • We, in this paper, propose a nonparametric estimator of bivariate mean residual life function based on Lin and Ying's (1993) bivariate survival function estimator of paired failure times under univariate censoring and prove the uniform consistency and the weak convergence result of this estimator. Through Monte Carlo simulation, the performances of the proposed estimator are tabulated and are illustrated with the skin grafts data.

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