• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.309-318
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• 2010

The construction of asymptotic confidence intervals is considered for the difference of binomial proportions in two doubly sampled data subject to false-positive error. The coverage behaviors of several likelihood based confidence intervals and a Bayesian confidence interval are examined. It is shown that a hierarchical Bayesian approach gives a confidence interval with good frequentist properties. Confidence interval based on the Rao score is also shown to have good performance in terms of coverage probability. However, the Wald confidence interval covers true value less often than nominal level.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.63 no.2
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• pp.259-268
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• 2017

In this paper, the incremental nonlinear dynamic analysis is used to evaluate the seismic performance of steel moment frame structures. To this purpose, three special moment frame structure with 5, 10 and 15 stories are designed according to the Iran's national building code for steel structures and the provisions for design of earthquake resistant buildings (2800 code). Incremental Nonlinear Analysis (IDA) is performed for 15 different ground motions, and responses of the structures are evaluated. For the immediate occupancy and the collapse prevention performance levels, the probability that seismic demand exceeds the seismic capacity of the structures is computed based on FEMA350. Also, fragility curves are plotted for three high-code damage levels using HASUS provisions. Based on the obtained results, it is evident that increase in the height of the frame structures reduces the reliability level. In addition, it is concluded that for the design earthquake the probability of exceeding average collapse prevention level is considerably larger than high and full collapse prevention levels.9.

• Atmosphere
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.69-83
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• 2011

The synoptic condition of clear-air turbulence (CAT) events occurred over South Korea is investigated, using the Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System (RDAPS) data obtained from the Korea Meteorological Agency (KMA) and pilot reports (PIREPs) collected by Korea Aviation Meteorological Agency (KAMA) from 1 Dec. 2003 to 30 Nov. 2008. Throughout the years, strong subtropical jet stream exists over the South Korea, and the CAT events frequently occur in the upper-level frontal zone and subtropical jet stream regions where strong vertical wind shears locate. The probability of the moderate or greater (MOG)-level turbulence occurrence is higher in wintertime than in summertime, and high probability region is shifted northward across the jet stream in wintertime. We categorize the CAT events into three types according to their generation mechanisms: i) upper-level front and jet stream, ii) anticyclonically sheared and curved flows, and iii) breaking of mountain waves. Among 240 MOG-level CAT events reported during 2003-2008, 103 cases are related to jet stream while 73 cases and 25 cases are related to the anticyclonic shear flow and breaking of mountain wave, respectively.

• Proceedings of the IEEK Conference
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• 2006.06a
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• pp.265-266
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• 2006

In this paper, we propose an efficient rate control scheme based on the received power level to overcome a quality degradation of video under time varying channel condition caused by the movement of mobile devices. First, we statistically obtain the relation between the PLR and the received power level. With this information and the sequences of received power level, we calculate the transition probability for the Markov Channel Model. Then, with using Markov chain rule, we obtain the probability where the channel condition remains in a good state and finally find the efficient target bit rate by multiplying it by the offered bandwidth when the network access has begun. We use TMN8 to adjust the bit rate to our proposed outcome. Experimental results show that the proposed method can efficiently enhance the video quality and provide better PSNR performance than with only using TMN8 rate control method.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.437-446
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• 2000

THe drought analysis is performed by applications of truncation level method and conditional probability concept for hydrologic time series in Han river basin. The distributed trend of conditional probability is determined using kriging method for the time series. This study uses daily flowrate, monthly rainfall, and daily high temperature data sets. The daily flowrate data of 12 years(1986~1997) is used for the analysis. Also, the 14 years' data sets(1986~1999) for monthly rainfall and daily high temperature obtained from the National Weather Service of Korea are used in this study. In the cases of flowrate and rainfall data sets, the estimated value corresponding to the truncation level is decreased as the truncation level is increased but in the high temperature data, the value is increased as the truncation level is increased. The conditional probability varies according to the observations and sites. However, the distributed trend of drought is similar over the basin. As a result, the possibility of the drought is high in the middle and lower parts of Han river basin and thus it is recommended the distributed trend of drought be considered when the plan or measures for drought are established.

• Journal of Industrial Technology
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• v.3
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• pp.53-63
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• 1983

The probability of failure is used to analyze the reliability of three dimensional slope failure, instead of conventional factor of safety. The strength parameters are assumed to be normal variated and beta variated. These are interval estimated under the specified confidence level and maximum likelihood estimation. The pseudonormal and beta random variables are generated using the uniform probability transformation method according to central limit theorem and rejection method. By means of a Monte-Carlo Simulation, the probability of failure is defined as; Pf=M/N N : Total number of trials M : Total number of failures Some of the conclusions derived from the case study include; 1. Three dimensional factors of safety are generally much higher than 2-D factors of safety. However situations appear to exist where the 3-D factor of safety can be lower than the 2-D factor of safety. 2. The F3/F2 ratio appears to be quite sensitive to c and ${\phi}$ and to the shape of the 3-D shear surface and the slope but not to be to the unit weight of soil. 3. In cases that strength parameters are assumed to be normal variated and beta variated, the relationships between safety factor and the probability of failure are fairly consistent, regardless of the shape of the 3-D shear surface and the slope. 4. As the c-value is increased, the probability of failure for the same safety factor is increased and as the ${\phi}-value$ is increased, the probability of failure for the same safety factor is decreased.

• Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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• v.34 no.4
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• pp.251-258
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• 2020

Sewer deterioration models are needed to forecast the remaining life expectancy of sewer networks by assessing their conditions. In this study, the serious defect (or condition state 3) occurrence probability, at which sewer rehabilitation program should be implemented, was evaluated using four probability distribution functions such as normal, lognormal, exponential, and Weibull distribution. A sample of 252 km of CCTV-inspected sewer pipe data in city Z was collected in the first place. Then the effective data (284 sewer sections of 8.15 km) with reliable information were extracted and classified into 3 groups considering the sub-catchment area, sewer material, and sewer pipe size. Anderson-Darling test was conducted to select the most fitted probability distribution of sewer defect occurrence as Weibull distribution. The shape parameters (β) and scale parameters (η) of Weibull distribution were estimated from the data set of 3 classified groups, including standard errors, 95% confidence intervals, and log-likelihood values. The plot of probability density function and cumulative distribution function were obtained using the estimated parameter values, which could be used to indicate the quantitative level of risk on occurrence of CS3. It was estimated that sewer data group 1, group 2, and group 3 has CS3 occurrence probability exceeding 50% at 13th-year, 11th-year, and 16th-year after the installation, respectively. For every data groups, the time exceeding the CS3 occurrence probability of 90% was also predicted to be 27th- to 30th-year after the installation.

• Journal of information and communication convergence engineering
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• v.9 no.6
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• pp.666-670
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• 2011

In this paper, we propose a stable active contour based tracking method which utilizes the bimodal segmentation technique to obtain a background color diminished image frame. The proposed method overcomes the drawback of the Mansouri model which is liable to fall into a local minimum state when colors appear in the background that are similar to the target colors. The Mansouri model has been a foundation for active contour based tracking methods, since it is derived from a probability based interpretation. By stabilizing the model with the proposed speed function, the proposed model opens the way to extend probability based active contour tracking for practical applications.

• IE interfaces
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.127-133
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• 2012

This paper considers the preventive maintenance scheduling problem of the cluster tool which is one of the most important manufacturing equipments in the next-generation semiconductor production environment. We define a random process that expresses the successive amount of chemicals accumulating inside the tool. Based on the renewal theory, we find the expected value and probability distribution of the time that the amount of accumulated chemicals exceeds a predetermined level. For a given probability that the accumulated chemicals exceeds the predetermined level we present a method to obtain the number of chamber operations to perform the preventive maintenance of that chamber. In addition, a method to get the preventive maintenance schedule for the whole cluster tool is presented. A numerical example is provided to illustrate our method.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.46 no.3
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• pp.337-352
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• 2013

Seismic performance of critical facilities has been focused on the structural components over the past decade. However, most earthquake damages were observed to the nonstructural components during and after the earthquakes. The primary objective of this research was to develop the seismic fragility of the piping system incorporating the nonlinear Tee-joint finite element model in the full scale piping configuration installed in critical facilities. The procedure for evaluating fragility curves corresponding to the first damage state was considered the effects of the top floor acceleration sensitivities for 5, 10, 15, and 20 story linear RC and steel building systems subjected to 22 selected ground motions as a function of ground motion uncertainties. The result of this study revealed that the conditional probability of failure of the piping system on the top floor in critical facilities did not increase with increased level of story height and in fact, story level in buildings can tune the fragilities between the building and the piping system.