• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.26 no.6
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• pp.1019-1032
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• 2013

The accurate prediction of future mortality is an important issue due to recent rapid increases in life expectancy. An accurate estimation and prediction of mortality is important to future welfare policies. The optimal selection of a mortality model is important to estimate and predict mortality; however, the period of time series data used is also an important issue. It is essential to understand that the time series data for mortality is short in Korea and the data before 1982 is incomplete. This paper divides the time series of Korean mortality into two sets to compare the parameter estimates of the LC model and LC model with a cohort effect by the period of data used. A modeling and prediction of the mortality index and cohort effect index as well as the evaluation of future life expectancy is conducted. Finally, some suggestions are proposed for the future prediction of mortality.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.31 no.4
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• pp.427-446
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• 2018

Korea will have a super-aged society within only 30 years according to the United Nations' definition of an aging society and the statistics on Korea's Population projections (2016), indicates that Korea has the fastest ageing speed in the world. There is a lack of data on long-term time-series data on death as related to pension and welfare policies compared to the rapid rate of aging. This paper estimates life expectancy over 245 years (from 1955 to 2200) through past and future forecasts as well as compares the expected life expectancy of the synthetic cohort and the real cohort. In addition, an international comparisons were made to understand the level of aging in Korea. Estimates of the back-projection period were compared with previous studies and the LC model to improve accuracy and objectivity. In addition, the predictions after 2016 reflected the declined mortality rate effect of Korea using the LC-ER model. The results showed an increase in life expectancy of about 30 years over 60 years (1955-2015) with an expected life expectancy of the real cohort over the second century (1955-2155) higher than the synthetic cohort. The comparative advantage of life expectancy of real cohorts was confirmed to be a common trend among comparative countries. In addition, Japan and Korea have a higher life expectancy and starting from 85 to 90 years old, all comparative countries show that the growth rate for the life expectancy of synthetic and real cohorts is less than previous years.