• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.82 no.3
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• pp.271-282
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• 2022

The active learning surrogate model based on adaptive sampling strategy is increasingly popular in reliability analysis. However, most of the existing sampling strategies adopt the trial and error method to determine the size of the Monte Carlo (MC) candidate sample pool which satisfies the requirement of variation coefficient of failure probability. It will lead to a reduction in the calculation efficiency of reliability analysis. To avoid this defect, a new method for determining the optimal size of the MC candidate sample pool is proposed, and a new structural reliability analysis method combining polynomial chaos-based Kriging model (PC-Kriging) with adaptive sampling region is also proposed (PCK-ASR). Firstly, based on the lower limit of the confidence interval, a new method for estimating the optimal size of the MC candidate sample pool is proposed. Secondly, based on the upper limit of the confidence interval, an adaptive sampling region strategy similar to the radial centralized sampling method is developed. Then, the k-means++ clustering technique and the learning function LIF are used to complete the adaptive design of experiments (DoE). Finally, the effectiveness and accuracy of the PCK-ASR method are verified by three numerical examples and one practical engineering example.

• Spatial Information Research
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• v.14 no.1 s.36
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• pp.29-41
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• 2006

Geostatistical data are obtained only at selected sites even though they are potentially available at any location In a continuous surface. Therefore it is necessary to estimate the unknown values at unsampled locations based on observations. In this study we compared the accuracy of 5 spatial interpolation methods: local trend surface, IDW, RBF, ordinary kriging, universal kriging. These interpolation methods were applied to annual rainfall data. As the results of validation tests, universal kriging with gaussian variogram model showed the best accuracy in comparison with other interpolation methods. In the case of kriging, the predicted values were more accurate and within a more narrow range than other methods. In contrast with kriging, local trend surface analysis, IDW and RBF showed the wide range of predicted values and abrupt changes between neighbors.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.71-84
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• 2017

Radon, which enters the interior environment from soil, rocks, and groundwater, is a radioactive gas that poses a serious risk to humans. Indoor radon concentrations are measured to investigate the risk of radon gas exposure and reliable radon concentration mapping is then performed for further analysis. In this study, we compared the predictive performance of various univariate kriging algorithms, including ordinary kriging and three nonlinear transform-based kriging algorithms (log-normal, multi-Gaussian, and indicator kriging), for mapping radon concentrations with an asymmetric distribution. To compare and analyze the predictive performance, we carried out jackknife-based validation and analyzed the errors according to the differences in the data intervals and sampling densities. From a case study in South Korea, the overall nonlinear transform-based kriging algorithms showed better predictive performance than ordinary kriging. Among the nonlinear transform-based kriging algorithms, log-normal kriging had the best performance, followed by multi-Gaussian kriging. Ordinary kriging was the best for predicting high values within the spatial pattern. The results from this study are expected to be useful in the selection of kriging algorithms for the spatial prediction of data with an asymmetric distribution.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.18 no.6
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• pp.595-603
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• 2019

A modified model combining Kriging and Monte Carlo method (MC) is proposed for probabilistic estimation of tunnel face stability in this paper. In the model, a novel uniform design is adopted to train the Kriging, instead of the existing active learning function. It has advantage of avoiding addition of new training points iteratively, and greatly saves the computational time in model training. The kinematic approach of limit analysis is employed to define the deterministic computational model of face failure, in which the Hoek-Brown failure criterion is introduced to account for the nonlinear behaviors of rock mass. The trained Kriging is used as a surrogate model to perform MC with dramatic reduction of calls to actual limit state function. The parameters in Hoek-Brown failure criterion are considered as random variables in the analysis. The failure probability is estimated by direct MC to test the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed probabilistic model. The influences of uncertainty level, correlation relationship and distribution type of random variables are further discussed using the proposed approach. In summary, the probabilistic model is an accurate and economical alternative to perform probabilistic stability analysis of tunnel face excavated in spatially random Hoek- Brown media.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.252-260
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• 2010

The point rainfall measurements need to be converted to the areal rainfall by means of mean areal precipitation (MAP) estimation methods. And it is not appropriate to evaluate the areal rainfall with constant drift because of the geomorphological influences to rainfall field. Non-stationarity should be applied to the estimation of the areal rainfall, therefore, to consider these effects. Kriging methods with special functional would be a suitable tool in this case. Generalized covariance Kriging method is the most developed one among different Kriging methods. From this point of view this study performs the analysis of its applicability to distributed runoff model. For these purpose, distributed rainfall was created by Thiessen and Kriging method. And distributed rainfall of each method was applied into HyGIS-GRM. The result of applying, Runoff was different in the rainfall data form. Therefore, To apply Kriging method with physical meaning is that it is the useful method as distributed rainfall-runoff model.

• Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.211-218
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• 2007

In this study, vertical electrical sounding (VES) data and ordinary kriging are used to identify the alluvial depth of each area that Korea Resources Corporation (KORES) conducted groundwater survey at Miryang area in Gyeongsangnam-do and Pocheon area in Gyeonggi-do from 2003 to 2004. To verify the applicability of VES data to ordianry kriging, regression analysis of VES data versus drillhole data is conducted. Comparing the alluvial depth distributions using ordinary kriging with existing drillhole data, the result shows that the depth distributions are reasonably depicted along with the topography and the basin. So, the ordinary kriging of VES data is useful to identify the alluvial depth distributions.

• Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.101-111
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• 2004

In order to guarantee the stability of a tunnel and its optimum design, it is very important to obtain enough ground investigation data. In realty, however, it is not the case due to the limitation of measuring spatially distributed data and economical reasons. Especially, there are regions where drilling is impossible due to civil appeal and mountainous topology, and it is also difficult to estimate rock mass classes quantitatively with only geophysical exploration data. In this study, therefore, 3 dimensional multiple indicator kriging (3D-MI kriging), which can incorporate geophysical exploration data and drill core data off a tunnel center line, is proposed to cope with such problems. To this end, two dimensional mutiple indicator kriging, which is one of the geostatistical techniques, is extended for three dimensional analysis. Also, the proposed 3D-MI kriging was applied to determine the rock mass classes by RMR system for the design of a Kyungbu express rail way tunnel.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.30 no.8 s.251
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• pp.985-992
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• 2006

Many methods for reliability analysis have been studied and one of them, a moment method, has the advantage that it doesn't require sensitivities of performance functions. The moment method for reliability analysis requires the first four moments of a performance function and then Pearson system is used for the probability of failure where the accuracy of the probability of failure greatly depends on that of the first four moments. But it is generally impossible to assess them analytically for multidimensional functions, and numerical integration is mainly used to estimate the moment. However, numerical integration requires many function evaluations and in case of involving finite element analyses, the calculation of the first fo 따 moments is very time-consuming. To solve the problem, this research proposes a new method of approximating the first four moments based on kriging metamodel. The proposed method substitutes the kriging metamodel for the performance function and can also evaluate the accuracy of the calculated moments adjusting the approximation range. Numerical examples show the proposed method can approximate the moments accurately with the less function evaluations and evaluate the accuracy of the calculated moments.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.138-147
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• 2010

As inaccurate traffic volume prediction may result in inadequate transportation planning and design, traffic volume prediction based on traffic volume data is very important in spatial decision making processes such as transportation planning and operation. In order to improve the accuracy of traffic volume prediction, recent studies are using the geostatistical approach called kriging and according to their reports, the method shows high predictability compared to conventional methods. Thus, this study estimated traffic volume data for St. Louis in the State of Missouri, USA using the kriging method, and tested its accuracy by comparing the estimates with actual measurements. In addition, we suggested a new method for enhancing the accuracy of prediction by the kriging method. In the new method, we estimated traffic volume data: first, by applying anisotropy, which is a characteristic of traffic volume data appearing in determining variogram factors; and second, by performing co-kriging analysis using interstate highway, which is in a high spatial correlation with traffic volume data, as a secondary variable. According to the results of the analysis, the analysis applying anisotropy showed higher accuracy than the kriging method, and co-kriging performed on the application of anisotropy produced the most accurate estimates.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.17 no.10
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• pp.4587-4590
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• 2016

Background: In many countries gastric cancer has the highest incidence among the gastrointestinal cancers and is the second most common cancer in Iran. The aim of this study was to identify and map high risk gastric cancer regions at the county-level in Iran. Methods: In this study we analyzed gastric cancer data for Iran in the years 2003-2010. Area-to-area Poisson kriging and Besag, York and Mollie (BYM) spatial models were applied to smoothing the standardized incidence ratios of gastric cancer for the 373 counties surveyed in this study. The two methods were compared in term of accuracy and precision in identifying high risk regions. Result: The highest smoothed standardized incidence rate (SIR) according to area-to-area Poisson kriging was in Meshkinshahr county in Ardabil province in north-western Iran (2.4,SD=0.05), while the highest smoothed standardized incidence rate (SIR) according to the BYM model was in Ardabil, the capital of that province (2.9,SD=0.09). Conclusion: Both methods of mapping, ATA Poisson kriging and BYM, showed the gastric cancer incidence rate to be highest in north and north-west Iran. However, area-to-area Poisson kriging was more precise than the BYM model and required less smoothing. According to the results obtained, preventive measures and treatment programs should be focused on particular counties of Iran.