• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.119-136
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• 2012

The goal of this study is to apply the IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) concept of vulnerability to climate change and verify the use of a combination of vulnerability index and fuzzy logic to flood vulnerability analysis and mapping in Seoul using GIS. In order to achieve this goal, this study identified indicators influencing floods based on literature review. We include indicators of exposure to climate(daily max rainfall, days of 80mm over), sensitivity(slope, geological, average DEM, impermeability layer, topography and drainage), and adaptive capacity(retarding basin and green-infra). Also, this research used fuzzy model for aggregating indicators, and utilized frequency ratio to decide fuzzy membership values. Results show that the number of days of precipitation above 80mm, the distance from river and impervious surface have comparatively strong influence on flood damage. Furthermore, when precipitation is over 269mm, areas with scare flood mitigation capacities, industrial land use, elevation of 16~20m, within 50m distance from rivers are quite vulnerable to floods. Yeongdeungpo-gu, Yongsan-gu, Mapo-gu include comparatively large vulnerable areas. This study improved previous flood vulnerability assessment methodology by adopting fuzzy model. Also, vulnerability map provides meaningful information for decision makers regarding priority areas for implementing flood mitigation policies.

• Journal of Fisheries and Marine Sciences Education
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• v.27 no.6
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• pp.1755-1763
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• 2015

The objective of this study is to empirically analyze the relationship between sea temperature and jellyfish blooms. Ever since the 2000s, jellyfish population has been dramatically increased, which brought negative influence on the national health and the fisheries activities. Jellyfish blooms have been recognized as an effect of climate change, but there has been no empirical evidence to support such relationship. In this paper, the relationship between sea temperature and jellyfish blooms has been analyzed by using the regional jellyfish monitoring data and coastal stationary observing data of National Institute of Fisheries Science. Since the dependant variable carries left censoring issues, we used the panel tobit model. Our results indicate that there are statistically significant positive relationship between sea temperature and jellyfish blooms.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.7 no.4
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• pp.443-450
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• 2016

The major greenhouse gases (GHGs) in agricultural sector are methane ($CH_4$), nitrous oxide ($N_2O$), carbon dioxide ($CO_2$). GHGs emissions are estimated by pertinent source category in a guideline book from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) such as methane from rice paddy, nitrous oxide from agricultural soil and crop residue burning. The methods for estimation GHGs emissions in agricultural sector are based on 1996 and 2006 IPCC guideline, 2000 and 2003 Good Practice Guidance. In general, GHG emissions were calculated by multiplying the activity data by emission factor. The total GHGs emission is $10,863Gg\;CO_2-eq$. from crop cultivation in agricultural sector in 2013. The emission is divided by the ratio of greenhouse gases that methane and nitrous oxide are 64% and 34%, respectively. Each gas emission according to the source categories is $7,000Gg\;CO_2-eq$. from rice paddy field, $3,897Gg\;CO_2-eq$. from agricultural soil, and $21Gg\;CO_2-eq$. from field burning, respectively. The GHGs emission in agricultural sector had been gradually decreased from 1990 to 2013 because of the reduction of cultivation. In order to compare with indirect emissions from agricultural soil, each emission was calculated using IPCC default factors (D) and country specific emission factors (CS). Nitrous oxide emission by CS applied in indirect emission, as nitrogen leaching and run off, was lower about 50% than that by D.

• Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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• v.29 no.3
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• pp.251-263
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• 2013

The surface ozone concentrations changes were investigated in response to climate change over the Korean peninsula for summertime using the global-regional one way coupled Integrated Climate and Air quality Modeling System (ICAMS). The future simulations were conducted under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B1 scenarios. The modeling system was applied for four 10-year simulations: 1996~2005 as a present-day case, 2016~2025, 2046~2055, and 2091~2100 as future cases. The results in this study showed that the mean surface ozone concentrations increased up to 0.5~3.3 ppb under the A2, but decreased by 0.1~10.9 ppb under the B1 for the future, respectively. However, its increases were lower than an increase of the average daily maximum 8-hour (DM8H) surface ozone concentrations which was projected to increase by 2.8~6.5 ppb under the A2. The DM8H surface ozone concentrations seem to be therefore far more affected by the climate and emissions changes than mean values. The probability of exceeding 60 ppb was projected to increase by 6~19% under the A2. In the case of B1, its changes were presented with an increase of 2.9% in the 2020s but no occurrence in the 2100s due to the effect of the reduced emissions. Future projection on surface ozone concentrations was generally shown to have almost the similar trend as the emissions of $NO_x$ and NMVOC.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.343-363
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• 2015

This study is to analyze the effects of climate change on national total factor productivity. Changes in temperature and rainfalls which are the representative climate variables are used as main factors to measure climate change. Not only average values of the variables but those highest values are used as independent variables in the model, in order to consider the characteristic pattern of recent climate change, the high volatilities. The OLS results are corresponding to previous literature that average temperature has a negative relationship with productivities while average rainfalls have a positive relationship. However, the results of panel analysis contradict the argument of the negative relationship between average temperature and productivities since human beings can adapt the climate change. Therefore adaptation capacity is important to forecast the effects of climate changes on economies.

• Journal of Wetlands Research
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.432-447
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• 2016

The increased frequency of drought and flood due to climate change was a global problem. In particular, drought was recognized as a serious environmental, ecological, social, and economic disaster. Therefore, it is necessary to study the measures to prevent it. In this study, we will estimate the meteorological drought index in the Han River Basin and analyze the impact of climate change on drought. The change of the meteorological drought occurrence due to climate change in the Han River separated by the common drought and severe drought was analyzed using the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The years 1973 - 2010 were selected for analysis in the current period. Using the scenario, we separated the future period (Target I: 2011 - 2039, Target II: 2040 - 2069, Target III : 2070 - 2099). The number of occurrences of less than -1.0 and -1.5 standard precipitation index were analyzed by SPI 3, 6, 12. Looking at the results, trends in rainfall in the Han River was expected to increase from the current figures, the occurrence of drought is predicted to decline in the future. However, the number of drought occurrence was analyzed to increase toward long-term drought. The number of severe drought occurrences was usually larger than the common drought estimated. Additional studies may be considered in addition to the agricultural drought, hydrological drought, socio-economic drought. This will be done by using efficient water management. The results can be used as a basis for future drought analysis of the Han River.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.57 no.4
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• pp.101-112
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• 2015

This study was conducted to predict greenhouse gas (GHG) emission from a radish field by future climate change scenario. A radish field located at Chuncheon-si Gangwon-do was selected, and A1B Special Report on Emission Scenario (SRES) of the IPCC (Intergovernmental panel on climate change) was applied to simulate the future potential climate change. Rainfall and temperature data were predicted to be increased by 8.4 % and 1.9 % in 2040s, 35.9 % and 27.0 % in 2060s, 19.2 % and 30.8 % in 2090s, respectively, compared to the climate data in 2010s. The $N_2O$, $CO_2$, and $CH_4$ emission were estimated to be increased by 0.4 up to 2.4 kg/ha/yr, by 500.5 up to 734.5 kg/ha/year, and by 29.4 up to 160.4 kg/ha/yr, which were resulted from the global warming potential (GWP) of 14.5~21.7 $CO_2$/ha/year caused by the amount changes of rainfall, temperature, manure amendment, and fertilizer applied in fields. One distinct feature of the study result was that the changes of $N_2O-N$, $CH_4-C$ and $CO_2-C$ with future potential climate change simulation were varied by soil texture. Therefore it was concluded that there is a need to apply appropriate amount of manure amendment needs and to consider soil texture as well.

• Journal of Wetlands Research
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.348-358
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• 2015

Impacts of climate change are being observed in the globe as well as the Korean peninsula. In the past 100 years, the average temperature of the earth rose about 0.75 degree in celsius, while that of Korean peninsula rose about 1.5 degree in celsius. The fifth Assessment Report of IPCC(Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change) predicts that the water pollution will be aggravated by change of hydrologic extremes such as floods and droughts and increase of water temperature (KMA and MOLIT, 2009). In this study, future runoff was calculated by applying climate change scenario to analyze the future water quality for each targe period (Obs : 2001 ~ 2010, Target I : 2011 ~ 2040, Target II : 2041 ~ 2070, Target III : 2071 ~ 2100) in Hongcheon river basin, Korea. In addition, The future water quality was analyzed by using multiple linear regression analysis and artificial neural networks after flow-duration curve analysis. As the results of future water quality prediction in Hongcheon river basin, we have known that BOD, COD and SS will be increased at the end of 21 century. Therefore, we need consider long-term water and water quality management planning and monitoring for the improvement of water quality in the future. For the prediction of more reliable future water quality, we may need consider various social factors with climate components.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.45-55
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• 2008

The impact on streamflow and groundwater recharge considering future potential climate and land use change was assessed using SLURP (Semi-distributed Land-Use Runoff Process) continuous hydrologic model. The model was calibrated and verified using 4 years (1999-2002) daily observed streamflow data for a $260.4km^2$ which has been continuously urbanized during the past couple of decades. The model was calibrated and validated with the coefficient of determination and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ranging from 0.8 to 0.7 and 0.7 to 0.5, respectively. The CCCma CGCM2 data by two SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) climate change scenarios (A2 and B2) of the IPCC (Intergovemmental Panel on Climate Change) were adopted and the future weather data was downscaled by Delta Change Method using 30 years (1977 - 2006, baseline period) weather data. The future land uses were predicted by CA (Cellular Automata)-Markov technique using the time series land use data of Landsat images. The future land uses showed that the forest and paddy area decreased 10.8 % and 6.2 % respectively while the urban area increased 14.2 %. For the future vegetation cover information, a linear regression between monthly NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) from NOAA/AVHRR images and monthly mean temperature using five years (1998 - 2002) data was derived for each land use class. The future highest NDVI value was 0.61 while the current highest NDVI value was 0.52. The model results showed that the future predicted runoff ratio ranged from 46 % to 48 % while the present runoff ratio was 59 %. On the other hand, the impact on runoff ratio by land use change showed about 3 % increase comparing with the present land use condition. The streamflow and groundwater recharge was big decrease in the future.

• Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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• v.43 no.3
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• pp.240-246
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• 2017

Objectives: This study was conducted to evaluate the vulnerability of the human health sector to $PM_{10}$ due to climate change in Incheon over the period of 2005-2014. Methods: Vulnerability to $PM_{10}$ consists of the three categories of climate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The indexes for climate exposure and sensitivity indicate positive effects, while adaptive capacity shows a negative effect on vulnerability to $PM_{10}$. The variables in each category were standardized by the rescaling method, and respective relative regional vulnerability was analyzed through the vulnerability index calculation formula of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Results: Regions with a high exposure index were the western and northern urban areas with industrial complexes adjacent to a highway, including Bupyong-gu and Seo-gu. Major factors determining the climate exposure index were the $PM_{10}$ concentration, days of $PM_{10}$ >= $100{\mu}g/m^3$, and $PM_{10}$ emissions. The regions showing a high sensitivity index were urban regions with high populations; these commonly had a high mortality rate for related diseases and vulnerable populations. Conclusions: This study is able to support regionally adjusted adaptation policies and the quantitative background of policy priority since it provides information on the regional health vulnerability to $PM_{10}$ due to climate change in Incheon.