• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• 제40권4호
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• pp.1-22
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• 2018

We estimate three continuous-time stochastic volatility models following the approach by Aït-Sahalia and Kimmel (2007) to compare the Korean and US stock markets. To do this, the Heston, GARCH, and CEV models are applied to the KOSPI 200 and S&P 500 Index. For the latent volatility variable, we generate and use the integrated volatility proxy using the implied volatility of short-dated at-the-money option prices. We conduct MLE in order to estimate the parameters of the stochastic volatility models. To do this we need the transition probability density function (TPDF), but the true TPDF is not available for any of the models in this paper. Therefore, the TPDFs are approximated using the irreducible method introduced in Aït-Sahalia (2008). Among three stochastic volatility models, the Heston model and the CEV model are found to be best for the Korean and US stock markets, respectively. There exist relatively strong leverage effects in both countries. Despite the fact that the long-run mean level of the integrated volatility proxy (IV) was not statistically significant in either market, the speeds of the mean reversion parameters are statistically significant and meaningful in both markets. The IV is found to return to its long-run mean value more rapidly in Korea than in the US. All parameters related to the volatility function of the IV are statistically significant. Although the volatility of the IV is more elastic in the US stock market, the volatility itself is greater in Korea than in the US over the range of the observed IV.

• 한국산학기술학회논문지
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• 제13권7호
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• pp.2930-2936
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• 2012

본 연구에서는 2001년 1월부터 2010년 3월까지 한국증권시장에 상장된 365개 표본기업을 대상으로 기업의 소유구조가 주식수익률에 미치는 영향을 패널자료 분석방법을 이용하여 종합적으로 분석하였다. 실증분석결과, 주가수익률에 유의한 영향을 미치는 기업의 소유구조 변수는 기관투자자 지분율, 외국인 지분율인 것으로 나타났다. 기관투자자 지분율은 주식수익률과 양(+)의 유의한 영향을, 외국인지분율은 음(-)의 유의한 영향을 미치는 것으로 확인되었다. 이는 기관투자자들이 경영자를 효율적으로 감시 통제함으로써 대리인비용을 감소시켜 주식수익률을 높인 것으로 볼 수 있다. 한편 외국인투자자들은 기관투자자들과 달리 효율적 감시 통제를 하지 못하는 것으로 보인다. 본 연구에서 제시된 통제변수와 관련하여 기업규모가 커질수록, 장부가치/시장가치비율이 낮을수록, 순이익/주가비율이 높을수록 주식수익률이 높아지는 것으로 분석되었다.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제45권3호
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• pp.123-130
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• 2022

Pair trading is a statistical arbitrage investment strategy. Traditionally, cointegration has been utilized in the pair exploring step to discover a pair with a similar price movement. Recently, the clustering analysis has attracted many researchers' attention, replacing the cointegration method. This study tests a clustering-driven pair trading investment strategy in the Korean stock market. If a pair detected through clustering has a large spread during the spread exploring period, the pair is included in the portfolio for backtesting. The profitability of the clustering-driven pair trading strategies is investigated based on various profitability measures such as the distribution of returns, cumulative returns, profitability by period, and sensitivity analysis on different parameters. The backtesting results show that the pair trading investment strategy is valid in the Korean stock market. More interestingly, the clustering-driven portfolio investments show higher performance compared to benchmarks. Note that the hierarchical clustering shows the best portfolio performance.

• Journal of East Asia Management
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• 제3권1호
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• pp.25-40
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• 2022

This study investigates the effect of labor union and its power on information opacity. Given that the information opacity ultimately leads to the stock price crash, this study examines the relationship between labor unions and future stock price crash risk. Further, by assuming a strike by labor union as the actual power of the unionization in firms, whether labor union's power subrogated by the activity (i.e., a strike) makes a significant difference in the likelihood of future stock price crash between unionized firms is also examined. The work place survey data provided by Korea Labor Institute is used to test the hypotheses. The data is for the periods of 2004 - 2012 on firms listed on Korea Stock Exchange and KOSDAQ. The results show that while labor unionization has a positive impact on future stock price crash risk, on which labor union's power has a negative impact. This means that the existence of labor union itself might facilitate firm's information to be opaque by tolerating manager opportunism, while its power mitigates the managerial opportunism, which leads to lower future stock price crash risk. This study adds to the literature on the role of labor unions as nonfinancial stakeholders and its power in accounting environment, and also on the determinants of stock price crash. It is also valuable to examine the unions' role in terms of the economic consequences of both presence and power of the labor unions.

• 사물인터넷융복합논문지
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• 제8권1호
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• pp.1-10
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• 2022

본 연구는 IoT 관련 산업이 재무건전성을 확보하고, 코로나-19 종식 이후에 세계시장을 선점할 수 있는 기반을 마련하는데 목적이 있다. 이러한 연구를 통하여 IoT 관련 기업의 계량적 경영실태를 점검하였다. 또한, 주가변동과 관리종목 지정에 따른 재무비율의 관련성을 규명함으로써 기업의 부실에 선제적으로 대비하고자 하였다. 연구는 2019년부터 2020년까지 유가증권 시장에서 코스피와 코스닥에 상장되어 있는 502개의 기업으로 선정하였다. 통계분석 방법은 다중회귀분석, 차이분석, 로지스틱 회귀분석 등을 실시하였다. 연구 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 코로나-19 이전과 이후에 따라 IoT 기업의 회계정보가 주가에 반영되는 영향력은 다르게 존재한다는 것을 알 수 있었다. 둘째, 코로나 이전과 이후에 따른 IoT 기업의 기말주가에서 차이가 있는 것으로 나타났다. 셋째, 코로나-19 이후에 주가변동에 따른 재무비율은 다르게 존재한다는 것을 알 수 있었다. 넷째, 코로나-19 이후에 관리종목 지정에 따른 재무비율은 다르게 존재한다는 것을 알 수 있었다. 이러한 연구결과를 통하여 IoT 기업의 재무건전성을 확보하고, 코로나-19 종식 이후에 세계시장으로 도약할 수 있는 기반을 마련하기 위한 몇 가지 제언을 하였다. 이러한 연구의 결과를 통하여 IoT 기업의 성장을 유도하고, 변화하는 금융시장에서 재무건전성을 담보할 수 있는 미래시대의 데카콘 기업으로 성장하는데 기여하길 기대한다.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제36권4호
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• pp.123-129
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• 2013

The aim of this study is to design an intelligent pattern-based real-time trading system (PRTS) using rough set analysis of technical indicators, dynamic time warping (DTW), and genetic algorithm in stock futures market. Rough set is well known as a data-mining tool for extracting trading rules from huge data sets such as real-time data sets, and a technical indicator is used for the construction of the data sets. To measure similarity of patterns, DTW is used over a given period. Through an empirical study, we identify the ideal performances that were profitable in various market conditions.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권11호
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• pp.117-126
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• 2020

This paper is aimed to explore the co-movement capital market in Southeast Asia and analysis the correlation of conventional and Islamic Index in the regional and global equity. This research become necessary to represent the risk on the capital market and measure market performance, as investor considers the volatility before investing. The time series daily data use from April 2012 to April 2020 both conventional and Islamic stock index in Malaysia and Indonesia. This paper examines the dynamics of conditional volatilities and correlations between those markets by using Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (MGARCH). Our result shows that conventional or composite index in Malaysia less volatile than Islamic, but on the other hand, both drive correlation movement. The other output captures that Islamic Index in Indonesian capital market more gradual volatilities than the Composite Index that tends to be low in risk so that investors intend to keep the shares. Generally, the result shows a correlation in each country for conventional and the Islamic index. However, Internationally Indonesia and Malaysia composite and Islamic is low correlated. Regionally Indonesia's indices movement looks to be more correlated and it's similar to Malaysian Capital Market counterparts. In the global market distress condition, the diversification portfolio between Indonesia and Malaysia does not give many benefits.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권4호
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• pp.249-261
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• 2021

To tranquilize the devastating impact of unnecessary risk-taking behavior of banks towards the economy for maximizing their profits that usually arises due to widely known 'moral-hazard' problem originating from market competition and intensified by bank's limited liability, the banking system is strongly monitored across all countries of the world. The goal of controlling would become more feasible if there exist some self-discipline and motivations which could safeguard the banks' charter value through the mechanism of market discipline. Therefore, our study is aimed to scrutinize the relation between market discipline and charter value of local commercial banks that are registered on the Pakistan Stock Exchange by analyzing a balanced panel data from the year 2007 to 2019. Deposit growth, interbank deposits, and subordinate debt are taken as proxies to measure market discipline whereas Tobin's Q theory is applied for calculating the charter value. Generalized Least Square Regression with Fixed Effect Model is used for evaluation. The outcomes reveal that in the existence of control variables, all proxies of market discipline have a significant positive impact on bank charter value. Our research has important policy implications for monitoring and supervising financial intermediaries for their stability and soundness by offsetting the complications of moral-hazard in the financial systems.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권12호
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• pp.95-107
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• 2020

The study investigates the asymmetric effect of exchange rate changes on stock prices in Vietnam. We use the nonlinear autoregressive-distributed lag (ARDL) analysis for monthly data from 2001:01 to 2018:05, based on VN-Index stock price collected from Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HOSE); the nominal exchange rate is separated into currency depreciation and appreciation through a partial sum decomposition process. Asymmetry is estimated both in the long-run relationship and the short-run error correction mechanism. The research results show that the effect of exchange rate changes on stock prices is asymmetrical, both in the short run and in long run. Accordingly, the stock prices react to different levels to depreciation and appreciation. However, the currency appreciation affects a stronger transmission of stock prices when compared to the long-run currency depreciation. In the absence of asymmetry, the exchange rate only has a short-run impact on stock prices. This implies a symmetrical assumption that underestimates the impact of exchange rate changes on stock prices in Vietnam. This study points to an important implication for regulators in Vietnam. They should consider the relationship between exchange rate changes and stock prices in both the long run and the short run to manage the stock and foreign exchange market.

• 한국지능시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국지능시스템학회 2007년도 추계학술대회 학술발표 논문집
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• pp.283-286
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• 2007

This paper proposes a genetic algorithm (GA) approach to instance selection in case-based reasoning (CBR) for the prediction of Korea Stock Price Index (KOSPI). CBR has been widely used in various areas because of its convenience and strength in complex problem solving. Nonetheless, compared to other machine learning techniques, CBR has been criticized because of its low prediction accuracy. Generally, in order to obtain successful results from CBR, effective retrieval of useful prior cases for the given problem is essential. However, designing a good matching and retrieval mechanism for CBR systems is still a controversial research issue. In this paper, the GA optimizes simultaneously feature weights and a selection task for relevant instances for achieving good matching and retrieval in a CBR system. This study applies the proposed model to stock market analysis. Experimental results show that the GA approach is a promising method for instance selection in CBR.