• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.1-17
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• 2020

Purpose - Since China has been South Korea's biggest export destination, uncertainty shocks originating from it would influence South Korea's exports. This paper evaluates the effects of China's economic policy uncertainty on Korea's exports to explore the transmission channels. Design/methodology - Incorporating endogeneities and nonlinearities, this study employs a quarterly time-varying parameters vector autoregressive model to investigate the relationships between China's economic policy uncertainty and Korea's exports, where the overparameterization due to time-varying specifications is overcome by a novel stochastic model specification search framework. According to previous theoretical studies, this paper assesses two channels, demand shock channel and exchange rate channel, through which foreign uncertainty affects Korea's exports. This paper identifies the primary drivers of Korea's aggregate exports and analyzes the rationales for the time-variant impacts of China's economic policy uncertainty on Korea's exports to China. Findings - Our empirical results reveal that Korea's aggregate exports are less responsive to China's economic policy uncertainty shocks and significantly move together with global demand. In contrast, its bilateral exports to China are highly responsive in a negative and time-variant way. Moreover, Chinese investment is an important channel through which China's economic policy uncertainty affects Korea's exports to China after 2010. Further, the time-variant effects of China's economic policy uncertainty on Korea's exports to China are related to changes in China's foreign trade policies, global economic conditions, and China's degree of economic freedom. Originality/value - Few previous studies touch the effects of external uncertainty shocks on South Korea's exports. This paper attempts to fill this gap and explicitly investigate the impacts of China's economic policy uncertainty on Korea's exports from a time-varying perspective. As Korea is an export-oriented economy, this study provides insights for the Korean government to understand the transmissions of external uncertainty better.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.146-163
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• 2021

Purpose - This paper examines China's impact on Korea's ICT exports considering the direct competition channel, the production shift channel, and the indirect demand channel at once. This paper also takes China's economic rebalancing into account and discusses whether it makes any differences in the effect of the three channels. Design/methodology - To quantify the effect of the three channels, I constructed a linear panel regression model and estimated it with various estimation methods including the system GMM. China's exports toward the same destination as Korea's exports, Korea's exports toward China, and the third countries' exports toward China respectively reflect the three channels. China's GVC indicators are included as well to evaluate the effect of further China's economic rebalancing. Since the present paper has a greater interest in the effect of China rather than the determinant of bilateral trade, a (fixed effect) panel model becomes more appropriate than the gravity model because timeinvariant variables in the gravity model, such as the distance and the language, are eliminated during the estimation process. Findings - The estimation results indicate that Chinese ICT exports are complementary to Korea's ICT exports in general. However, when markets are considered in subgroups, China's ICT exports could have a negative effect in the long run, especially for SITC75 and SITC76 markets, implying a possible competitive threat of China. The production shift effect turns significant during China's economic rebalancing in the markets for the advanced economies and the SITC76 product. China's indirect demand channel is also in effect significantly for the advanced economy and SITC75 commodities during China's economic rebalancing periods. In addition, this paper shows that China's transition toward upstream in the global value chain could have a positive impact on Korea's ICT exports, especially at the Asian market. Originality/value - The contribution of this paper is threefold. First, it focuses on the ICT industry for which Korea increasingly depends on China and China becomes a global hub of the GVC. Second, this paper quantitatively studies three channels in a model in contrast to the literature which mostly examines those channels separately and pays less attention to the GVC aspect. Third, by utilizing relatively recent data from the period of 2001-2017, this paper discusses whether China's economic rebalancing affects the three channels.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.27 no.5
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• pp.153-166
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• 2023

Purpose - This research empirically analyzes the influence of economic policy uncertainty and free trade agreements (FTAs) on bilateral trade volumes between Korea and its trading partners. The study investigates whether fluctuations in the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPUI) for both Korea and its trading partners significantly impact trade volumes and whether the implementation of FTAs mitigates these effects. Design/methodology - The study employs dynamic panel data analysis using the system generalized method of moments (system GMM) estimation method to achieve its research objectives. It utilizes country-month-level panel data, including the EPUI, trade volume between Korea and its trading partner countries, and other pertinent variables. The use of system GMM allows for the control of potential endogeneity issues and the incorporation of country-specific and time-specific effects. Findings - The analysis yields significant results regarding the impact of economic policy uncertainty on Korea's exports and imports, particularly before the implementation of FTAs. An increase in the EPUI of trading partners leads to a notable increase in Korea's exports to them. Conversely, an increase in Korea's EPUI negatively affects its imports from trading partners. However, post-FTA implementation, the influence of each country's EPUI on trade volume is neutralized, with no significant difference observed. Originality/value - This research contributes to the existing literature by providing empirical evidence on the interaction effects between economic policy uncertainty and FTAs on bilateral trade volumes. The study's uniqueness lies in its examination of how FTAs mitigate the impact of economic uncertainty on trade relations between countries. The findings underscore the importance of trade agreements as mechanisms to address economic risks and promote international trade relations. In a world where global market uncertainties persist, these insights can aid policymakers in Korea and other countries in enhancing their trade cooperation strategies and navigating challenges posed by evolving economic landscapes.

• The Southeast Asian review
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.41-76
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• 2017

This paper analyses the market shares and the export similarity indexes (ESI) of Korea, Japan and China in ASEAN, and then identifies the determinants of Korea's exports to ASEAN countries using single equation cointegration approaches, such as fully modified OLS (FMOLS), dynamic OLS (DOLS), and canonical cointegration regression (CCR). Various regression results are as follows: As expected, Korea's real exports tend to increase as importing country's GDP grows. The competing third country's currency depreciation affects Korea's exports differently from country to country. Most notably, it doesn't significantly affect Korean exports in Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand. These results suggest that bilateral or third country exchange rates are not that important or decisive factors to determine Korea's exports to ASEAN countries in the long-run while economic growth in ASEAN countries matters most.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.1-13
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• 2019

Purpose - This paper empirically investigates the competition effect of exports between Korea and China in their common-export markets considering market sophistication. Modern market sophistication includes an importing country's aggregate demand for products of high quality, design, novelty, eco-friendliness, and even IPR protection. Using an empirical analysis to identify the demand for product quality across countries, this paper estimates the effects of market sophistication on the competition between Korean exports and Chinese products. Design/Methodology - Our empirical model considers the relationship between an importing country's consumer sophistication and the export competition between Korea and China. This study employs the existing theoretical framework to identify the aggregate demand for product quality across countries. Using a quite direct measurement (the consumer sophistication index, our analysis investigates the differential effects of Korea's export market sophistication, particularly in markets where Korean exports are in competition with similar Chinese products. Findings - Our main findings can be summarized as follows: the negative effects of the export competition between Korea and China on Korea's exports are stronger in third markets where consumers are less sophisticated while the effects are not as pronounced in markets where consumers are more sophisticated. This result, however, best applies to differentiated goods which significantly vary in product quality. Originality/value - Existing studies focus on the supply side of production and make the assumption that the market preference for export quality is identical across countries. This paper attempts to evaluate the export competition between Korea and China from the demand-side perspective. This area of trade studies is underexplored both empirically and in theory, although the issue has long been important to Korean and world trade.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.11
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• pp.145-155
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• 2021

This study examines the export competitiveness of four major natural rubber exporters in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) region and investigates the factors affecting bilateral natural rubber export. This study utilized the revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) to measure export competitiveness. Next, this study employed the gravity model using the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimation to analyze the factors affecting bilateral export from the four major natural rubber exporters to 46 countries in the region. The analysis is conducted by using annual data from 2001 till 2018. The findings showed that all four major exporters maintained their export competitiveness. Indonesia and Vietnam notably exhibited increasing trends in the early 2000s. Besides, the market share for Malaysia and Vietnam have increased from 2013 to 2015 with the BRI implementation in 2013. In addition, this study discovered that non-tariff measures (NTM) have a positive and significant impact on the bilateral export of natural rubber. The overall findings strongly indicate that the natural rubber export has increased post BRI announcement. The outcome highlighted the benefits of BRI implementation on the natural rubber export. This study is the first attempt to apply the gravity model on the natural rubber exports within the BRI region.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.37-59
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• 2021

Purpose - Although models of innovation and exporting dominate recent studies of relations between innovation and access to foreign markets, relations between innovation and foreign direct investment (FDI) are less explored. This is especially true of relations between types of innovation and FDI. We fill that gap in the literature with empirical evidence that clarifies whether firms enter foreign markets through exports or FDI. Design/methodology - In order to assess the role of innovation in firms' international engagement strategies, we develop research hypotheses and present new empirical evidence on firms' choice of entry - exports and FDI - based on firm-level data. Findings - Our empirical results suggest that the impact of product innovation is more significant in transition from being a purely domestic firm to an exporter, while process innovation more significantly affect transition from being an exporter to a multinational enterprise. Our results also support 'self-selection into FDI' rather than 'learning-by-performing FDI' in the relationship between innovation and firms' overseas expansion. Originality/value - Recent literature on the relationship between innovation and firms' participation in foreign markets is dominated by models of innovation and export behavior. However, foreign direct investment by multinational enterprises may also be associated with firms' innovative activities. We first analyze how product and process innovations influence firms' choices to initiate exports or FDI.

• International Commerce and Information Review
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.213-228
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• 2005

China is our second largest trade partner and the biggest country of our investment. For this reason, the Korea active strategy for coping with China's changes is very critical at the current point in time due to the economic structure of Korea dependent on exports. This essay is aimed at studying the Foreign Trade Administration System of China and selecting Korea's prospective exports-imports to China. The purpose of this, essay is to help Korean trading corporation to understand the difference between Korea and China in foreign trade administration in order to promote bilateral trade between Korea and China.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.47 no.2
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• pp.31-46
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• 2022

The purpose of this study is to measure the degree of discrepancies in the bilateral trade data between South Korea and its five major trade partners and to identify the key factors causing the discrepancies. By analyzing statistics based on the CIF/FOB ratio estimation and taking into consideration the trade flow via Hong Kong, the study finds that the discrepancies in South Korea's trade data with the US, Vietnam, and Japan are insignificant. In case of Hong Kong, however, the value of South Korea's import from Hong Kong is extensively inconsistent with Hong Kong's export to South Korea(i.e. the mirror data) while the value of South Korea's export to Hong Kong generally corresponds to its mirror data. Such discrepancies are caused by differences in recording re-exports, which are often found in the trade flow via entrepôt economics including Hong Kong. Meanwhile, discrepancies in reported bilateral trade flows between South Korea and People's Republic of China(PRC) remain relatively marginal. The discrepancy of statistics between South Korea as the exporter and PRC as the importer is mainly caused by the trade flow via Hong Kong. On the other hand, the discrepancy of statistics between South Korea as the importer and PRC as the exporter is assumably due to the differences in attribution of trade partners.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.41-74
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• 2007

This paper aims to assess the effectiveness of Korea's official development assistance (ODA) in terms of improvement in per capita gross domestic product (GDP) of aid recipients, and promotion of Korea's exports and outward foreign direct investments (FDI) to ODA recipients. The assessment has also been done for different groups of aid recipient countries divided by their regional location, income level, and economic freedom. For this purpose, this paper empirically tests the effectiveness of bilateral grants and loans for 163 aid recipient countries during the period of 1990 to 2003. Results show that ODA from Korea had not been able to explain the variations in aid recipient countries' growth in per capita GDP. Provision of aid promoted outward FDI to aid recipient countries during the entire period considered. With respect to exports, provision of aid had facilitated Korea's exports to aid recipient countries, except for the period of 2000~2003. On the basis of the findings, recommendations for future aid policy have been made.