• Title/Summary/Keyword: Key Distribution System

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Improving Human Activity Recognition Model with Limited Labeled Data using Multitask Semi-Supervised Learning (제한된 라벨 데이터 상에서 다중-태스크 반 지도학습을 사용한 동작 인지 모델의 성능 향상)

  • Prabono, Aria Ghora;Yahya, Bernardo Nugroho;Lee, Seok-Lyong
    • Database Research
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.137-147
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    • 2018
  • A key to a well-performing human activity recognition (HAR) system through machine learning technique is the availability of a substantial amount of labeled data. Collecting sufficient labeled data is an expensive and time-consuming task. To build a HAR system in a new environment (i.e., the target domain) with very limited labeled data, it is unfavorable to naively exploit the data or trained classifier model from the existing environment (i.e., the source domain) as it is due to the domain difference. While traditional machine learning approaches are unable to address such distribution mismatch, transfer learning approach leverages the utilization of knowledge from existing well-established source domains that help to build an accurate classifier in the target domain. In this work, we propose a transfer learning approach to create an accurate HAR classifier with very limited data through the multitask neural network. The classifier loss function minimization for source and target domain are treated as two different tasks. The knowledge transfer is performed by simultaneously minimizing the loss function of both tasks using a single neural network model. Furthermore, we utilize the unlabeled data in an unsupervised manner to help the model training. The experiment result shows that the proposed work consistently outperforms existing approaches.

A Study on the Franchise Business Environment and its Strategy in United Kingdom (영국 프랜차이즈 사업 환경과 진출 전략에 관한 연구)

  • Jang, Han-Byul;Lee, Sang-Youn
    • The Korean Journal of Franchise Management
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.39-54
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    • 2012
  • Franchise system in Korea has been developed in different way compared with American way of franchising based on mutual contract and intellectual property context. Korean franchising is mostly based on product distribution franchise concept rather than business format franchise in which franchisor makes revenue sources from providing their products as much as possible thru group purchasing and logistics rather than receiving royalty. Many franchise enterprises from Korea drive to enter into global franchise market based on the successful performance of Korean way of franchising. Korean enterprises are required to prepare completely for research and survey regarding local culture, custom, way of life and legal matters etc. when entering into global franchise market to gain a substantial performance. CaffeBene recently entered into American franchise business with success, and many other Korean franchise enterprises have a deep interest in proceeding with global franchise business modeling CaffeBene case. There is no Korean franchise enterprise in United Kingdom in which service franchise area in particular with personal service is considered to become a promising and potential franchise business and many people show a great interest in Oriental foods and beverages with well-being trend. Korean franchise enterprises have now access to United Kingdom easier because IT industry including internet of the country have been developed by leaps and bounds since London Olympic in 2012. The purpose of this study is to suggest key success factors and basic strategy such as situation analysis, selecting business format, and marketing strategy for successful launching of franchise business in United Kingdom.

A Study on the Buyer's Decision Making Models for Introducing Intelligent Online Handmade Services (지능형 온라인 핸드메이드 서비스 도입을 위한 구매자 의사결정모형에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Jong-Won;Yang, Sung-Byung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.119-138
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    • 2016
  • Since the Industrial Revolution, which made the mass production and mass distribution of standardized goods possible, machine-made (manufactured) products have accounted for the majority of the market. However, in recent years, the phenomenon of purchasing even more expensive handmade products has become a noticeable trend as consumers have started to acknowledge the value of handmade products, such as the craftsman's commitment, belief in their quality and scarcity, and the sense of self-esteem from having them,. Consumer interest in these handmade products has shown explosive growth and has been coupled with the recent development of three-dimensional (3D) printing technologies. Etsy.com is the world's largest online handmade platform. It is no different from any other online platform; it provides an online market where buyers and sellers virtually meet to share information and transact business. However, Etsy.com is different in that shops within this platform only deal with handmade products in a variety of categories, ranging from jewelry to toys. Since its establishment in 2005, despite being limited to handmade products, Etsy.com has enjoyed rapid growth in membership, transaction volume, and revenue. Most recently in April 2015, it raised funds through an initial public offering (IPO) of more than 1.8 billion USD, which demonstrates the huge potential of online handmade platforms. After the success of Etsy.com, various types of online handmade platforms such as Handmade at Amazon, ArtFire, DaWanda, and Craft is ART have emerged and are now competing with each other, at the same time, which has increased the size of the market. According to Deloitte's 2015 holiday survey on which types of gifts the respondents plan to buy during the holiday season, about 16% of U.S. consumers chose "homemade or craft items (e.g., Etsy purchase)," which was the same rate as those for the computer game and shoes categories. This indicates that consumer interests in online handmade platforms will continue to rise in the future. However, this high interest in the market for handmade products and their platforms has not yet led to academic research. Most extant studies have only focused on machine-made products and intelligent services for them. This indicates a lack of studies on handmade products and their intelligent services on virtual platforms. Therefore, this study used signaling theory and prior research on the effects of sellers' characteristics on their performance (e.g., total sales and price premiums) in the buyer-seller relationship to identify the key influencing e-Image factors (e.g., reputation, size, information sharing, and length of relationship). Then, their impacts on the performance of shops within the online handmade platform were empirically examined; the dataset was collected from Etsy.com through the application of web harvesting technology. The results from the structural equation modeling revealed that the reputation, size, and information sharing have significant effects on the total sales, while the reputation and length of relationship influence price premiums. This study extended the online platform research into online handmade platform research by identifying key influencing e-Image factors on within-platform shop's total sales and price premiums based on signaling theory and then performed a statistical investigation. These findings are expected to be a stepping stone for future studies on intelligent online handmade services as well as handmade products themselves. Furthermore, the findings of the study provide online handmade platform operators with practical guidelines on how to implement intelligent online handmade services. They should also help shop managers build their marketing strategies in a more specific and effective manner by suggesting key influencing e-Image factors. The results of this study should contribute to the vitalization of intelligent online handmade services by providing clues on how to maximize within-platform shops' total sales and price premiums.

Study on the effect of small and medium-sized businesses being selected as suitable business types, on the franchise industry (중소기업적합업종선정이 프랜차이즈산업에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Kang, Chang-Dong;Shin, Geon-Chel;Jang, Jae Nam
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.1-23
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    • 2012
  • The conflict between major corporations and small and medium-sized businesses is being aggravated, the trickle down effect is not working properly, and, as the controversy surrounding the effectiveness of the business limiting system continues to swirl, the plan proposed to protect the business domain of small and medium-sized businesses, resolve polarization between these businesses and large corporations, and protect small family run stores is the suitable business type designation system for small and medium-sized businesses. The current status of carrying out this system of selecting suitable business types among small and medium-sized businesses involves receiving applications for 234 items among the suitable business types and items from small and medium-sized businesses in manufacturing, and then selecting the items of the consultative group by analyzing and investigating the actual conditions. Suitable business type designation in the service industry will involve designation with priority on business types that are experiencing social conflict. Three major classifications of the service industry, related to the livelihood of small and medium-sized businesses, will be first designated, and subsequently this will be expanded sequentially. However, there is the concern that when designated as a suitable business type or item, this will hinder the growth motive for small to medium-sized businesses, and designation all cause decrease in consumer welfare. Also it is highly likely that it will operate as a prior regulation, cause side-effects by limiting competition systematically, and also be in violation against the main regulations of the FTA system. Moreover, it is pointed out that the system does not sufficiently reflect reverse discrimination factor against large corporations. Because conflict between small to medium sized businesses and large corporations results from the expansion of corporations to the service industry, which is unrelated to their key industry, it is necessary to introduce an advanced contract method like a master franchise or local franchise system and to develop local small to medium sized businesses through a franchise system to protect these businesses and dealers. However, this method may have an effect that contributes to stronger competitiveness of small to medium sized franchise businesses by advancing their competitiveness and operational methods a step further, but also has many negative aspects. First, as revealed by the Ministry of Knowledge Economy, the franchise industry is contributing to the strengthening of competitiveness through the economy of scale by organizing existing individual proprietors and increasing the success rate of new businesses. It is also revealed to be a response measure by the government to stabilize the economy of ordinary people and is emphasized as a 'useful way' to revitalize the service industry and improve the competitiveness of individual proprietors, and has been involved in contributions to creating jobs and expanding the domestic market by providing various services to consumers. From this viewpoint, franchises fit the purpose of the suitable business type system and is not something that is against it. Second, designation as a suitable business type may decrease investment for overseas expansion, R&D, and food safety, as well negatively affect the expansion of overseas corporations that have entered the domestic market, due to the contraction and low morale of large domestic franchise corporations that have competitiveness internationally. Also because domestic franchise businesses are hard pressed to secure competitiveness with multinational overseas franchise corporations that are operating in Korea, the system may cause difficulty for domestic franchise businesses in securing international competitiveness and also may result in reverse discrimination against these overseas franchise corporations. Third, the designation of suitable business type and item can limit the opportunity of selection for consumers who have up to now used those products and can cause a negative effect that reduces consumer welfare. Also, because there is the possibility that the range of consumer selection may be reduced when a few small to medium size businesses monopolize the market, by causing reverse discrimination between these businesses, the role of determining the utility of products must be left ot the consumer not the government. Lastly, it is desirable that this is carried out with the supplementation of deficient parts in the future, because fair trade is already secured with the enforcement of the franchise trade law and the best trade standard of the Fair Trade Commission. Overlapping regulations by the suitable business type designation is an excessive restriction in the franchise industry. Now, it is necessary to establish in the domestic franchise industry an environment where a global franchise corporation, which spreads Korean culture around the world, is capable of growing, and the active support by the government is needed. Therefore, systems that do not consider the process or background of the growth of franchise businesses and harm these businesses for the sole reason of them being large corporations must be removed. The inhibition of growth to franchise enterprises may decrease the sales of franchise stores, in some cases even bankrupt them, as well as cause other problems. Therefore the suitable business type system should not hinder large corporations, and as both small dealers and small to medium size businesses both aim at improving competitiveness and combined growth, large corporations, small dealers and small to medium sized businesses, based on their mutual cooperation, should not include franchise corporations that continue business relations with them in this system.

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The Contribution of Innovation Activity to the Output Growth of Emerging Economies: The Case of Kazakhstan

  • Smagulova, Sholpan;Mukasheva, Saltanat
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.10 no.7
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    • pp.33-41
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of this study is to analyse the state of the energy industry and to determine the efficiency of its functioning on the basis of energy conservation principle and application of innovative technologies aimed at improving the ecological modernisation of agricultural sectors of Kazakhstan. The research methodology is based on an integrated approach of financial and economic evaluation of the effectiveness of the investment project, based on calculation of elasticity, total costs and profitability, as well as on comparative, graphical and system analysis. The current stage is characterised by widely spread restructuring processes of electric power industry in many countries through introduction of new technical installations of energy facilities and increased government regulation in order to enhance the competitive advantage of electricity market. Electric power industry features a considerable value of creating areas. For example, by providing scientific and technical progress, it crucially affects not only the development but also the territorial organisation of productive forces, first of all the industry. In modern life, more than 90% of electricity and heat is obtained by Kazakhstan's economy by consuming non-renewable energy resources: different types of coal, oil shale, oil, natural gas and peat. Therefore, it is significant to ensure energy security, as the country faces a rapid fall back to mono-gas structure of fuel and energy balance. However, energy resources in Kazakhstan are spread very unevenly. Its main supplies are concentrated in northern and central parts of the republic, and the majority of consumers of electrical power live in the southern and western areas of the country. However, energy plays an important role in the economy of industrial production and to a large extent determines the level of competitive advantage, which is a promising condition for implementation of energy-saving and environmentally friendly technologies. In these circumstances, issues of modernisation and reforms of this sector in Kazakhstan gain more and more importance, which can be seen in the example of economically sustainable solutions of a large local monopoly company, significant savings in capital investment and efficiency of implementation of an investment project. A major disadvantage of development of electricity distribution companies is the prevalence of very high moral and physical amortisation of equipment, reaching almost 70-80%, which significantly increases the operating costs. For example, while an investment of 12 billion tenge was planned in 2009 in this branch, in 2012 it is planned to invest more than 17 billion. Obviously, despite the absolute increase, the rate of investment is still quite low, as the total demand in this area is at least more than 250 billion tenge. In addition, industrial infrastructure, including the objects of Kazakhstan electric power industry, have a tangible adverse impact on the environment. Thus, since there is a large number of various power projects that are sources of electromagnetic radiation, the environment is deteriorated. Hence, there is a need to optimise the efficiency of the organisation and management of production activities of energy companies, to create and implement new technologies, to ensure safe production and provide solutions to various environmental aspects. These are key strategic factors to ensure success of the modern energy sector of Kazakhstan. The contribution of authors in developing the scope of this subject is explained by the fact that there was not enough research in the energy sector, especially in the view of ecological modernisation. This work differs from similar works in Kazakhstan in the way that the proposed method of investment project calculation takes into account the time factor, which compares the current and future value of profit from the implementation of innovative equipment that helps to bring it to actual practise. The feasibility of writing this article lies in the need of forming a public policy in the industrial sector, including optimising the structure of energy disbursing rate, which complies with the terms of future modernised development of the domestic energy sector.

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A Study on the New Branding and Customer Integration of the M&A Process : Focused on the Brand Name and Membership System of Two Companies (인수합병 과정의 브랜드 및 고객 통합에 관한 연구 : 백화점의 브랜드 네임 및 회원 통합을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Gyu-Bae
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.10 no.6
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    • pp.27-37
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    • 2012
  • Many studies have focused on the importance of organizational integration when companies try to achieve growth through mergers and acquisitions (M&A). However, there has been little research that focuses on the new branding or customer base integration of the M&A process, despite the fact that this integration is very important for achieving M&A goals and business performance in industries such as retail. The purpose of this study is to provide an M&A case study of the retail industry, focused especially on the new branding and customer integration of two department stores. This study examined key integration processes in terms of brand name and membership systems of both companies by examining how the merged company achieved its new branding and the integration of its membership systems. The methodology of this research is the case study, which is used in both normative and empirical studies for distribution research in Korea. This research analyzes the case of both new branding and customer membership systems of the two companies. The new branding initiatives of this case centered on decision making including brand extension and brand naming. The customer membership integration of the two companies is analyzed on the basis of the customer reward programs that include both financial and service rewards. This study shows the success factors of new branding and customer integration in the M&A process in terms of achieving marketing goals and business performance as follows: First, companies should identify the integration areas by analyzing the brand and membership of both companies and make a balanced decision for both the customer and company. Second, the goals of new branding and membership integration in the M&A process should not emphasize business efficiency from a short-term perspective but rather should consider brand power and business synergy from a long-term perspective. Third, the post-merger integration process of the brand or customer areas requires not only the organized execution of integration tasks but also follow-up programs for changes in business strategy and marketing-related programs to realize the synergy effects of integrated organization. Although this study provides a detailed review and analysis of the new branding and customer integration processes in post-merger integration and in identifying the primary decision-making areas of these processes, there are some limitations requiring further research that may overcome or compensate for these limitations. The suggested future research areas are as follows: First, since this research is a case study of only one M&A, it makes few theoretical contributions such as new propositions or theories or possibilities for generalization. This limitation can be overcome through further research using multiple cases, which may lead to new propositions. Second, the methodology of this study lacks sufficient rigor in terms of its analytic approach because this case study was developed and analyzed descriptively. Further research is needed to compensate for these limitations, such as using a theory-based approach or comparative analysis approach that makes case analysis more systematic.

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Construction of Event Networks from Large News Data Using Text Mining Techniques (텍스트 마이닝 기법을 적용한 뉴스 데이터에서의 사건 네트워크 구축)

  • Lee, Minchul;Kim, Hea-Jin
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.183-203
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    • 2018
  • News articles are the most suitable medium for examining the events occurring at home and abroad. Especially, as the development of information and communication technology has brought various kinds of online news media, the news about the events occurring in society has increased greatly. So automatically summarizing key events from massive amounts of news data will help users to look at many of the events at a glance. In addition, if we build and provide an event network based on the relevance of events, it will be able to greatly help the reader in understanding the current events. In this study, we propose a method for extracting event networks from large news text data. To this end, we first collected Korean political and social articles from March 2016 to March 2017, and integrated the synonyms by leaving only meaningful words through preprocessing using NPMI and Word2Vec. Latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) topic modeling was used to calculate the subject distribution by date and to find the peak of the subject distribution and to detect the event. A total of 32 topics were extracted from the topic modeling, and the point of occurrence of the event was deduced by looking at the point at which each subject distribution surged. As a result, a total of 85 events were detected, but the final 16 events were filtered and presented using the Gaussian smoothing technique. We also calculated the relevance score between events detected to construct the event network. Using the cosine coefficient between the co-occurred events, we calculated the relevance between the events and connected the events to construct the event network. Finally, we set up the event network by setting each event to each vertex and the relevance score between events to the vertices connecting the vertices. The event network constructed in our methods helped us to sort out major events in the political and social fields in Korea that occurred in the last one year in chronological order and at the same time identify which events are related to certain events. Our approach differs from existing event detection methods in that LDA topic modeling makes it possible to easily analyze large amounts of data and to identify the relevance of events that were difficult to detect in existing event detection. We applied various text mining techniques and Word2vec technique in the text preprocessing to improve the accuracy of the extraction of proper nouns and synthetic nouns, which have been difficult in analyzing existing Korean texts, can be found. In this study, the detection and network configuration techniques of the event have the following advantages in practical application. First, LDA topic modeling, which is unsupervised learning, can easily analyze subject and topic words and distribution from huge amount of data. Also, by using the date information of the collected news articles, it is possible to express the distribution by topic in a time series. Second, we can find out the connection of events in the form of present and summarized form by calculating relevance score and constructing event network by using simultaneous occurrence of topics that are difficult to grasp in existing event detection. It can be seen from the fact that the inter-event relevance-based event network proposed in this study was actually constructed in order of occurrence time. It is also possible to identify what happened as a starting point for a series of events through the event network. The limitation of this study is that the characteristics of LDA topic modeling have different results according to the initial parameters and the number of subjects, and the subject and event name of the analysis result should be given by the subjective judgment of the researcher. Also, since each topic is assumed to be exclusive and independent, it does not take into account the relevance between themes. Subsequent studies need to calculate the relevance between events that are not covered in this study or those that belong to the same subject.

Development and Performance Evaluation of an Animal SPECT System Using Philips ARGUS Gamma Camera and Pinhole Collimator (Philips ARGUS 감마카메라와 바늘구멍조준기를 이용한 소동물 SPECT 시스템의 개발 및 성능 평가)

  • Kim, Joong-Hyun;Lee, Jae-Sung;Kim, Jin-Su;Lee, Byeong-Il;Kim, Soo-Mee;Choung, In-Soon;Kim, Yu-Kyeong;Lee, Won-Woo;Kim, Sang-Eun;Chung, June-Key;Lee, Myung-Chul;Lee, Dong-Soo
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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    • v.39 no.6
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    • pp.445-455
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    • 2005
  • Purpose: We developed an animal SPECT system using clinical Philips ARGUS scintillation camera and pinhole collimator with specially manufactured small apertures. In this study, we evaluated the physical characteristics of this system and biological feasibility for animal experiments. Materials and Methods: Rotating station for small animals using a step motor and operating software were developed. Pinhole inserts with small apertures (diameter of 0.5, 1.0, and 2.0 mm) were manufactured and physical parameters including planar spatial resolution and sensitivity and reconstructed resolution were measured for some apertures. In order to measure the size of the usable field of view according to the distance from the focal point, manufactured multiple line sources separated with the same distance were scanned and numbers of lines within the field of view were counted. Using a Tc-99m line source with 0.5 mm diameter and 12 mm length placed in the exact center of field of view, planar spatial resolution according to the distance was measured. Calibration factor to obtain FWHM values in 'mm' unit was calculated from the planar image of two separated line sources. Te-99m point source with i mm diameter was used for the measurement of system sensitivity. In addition, SPECT data of micro phantom with cold and hot line inserts and rat brain after intravenous injection of [I-123]FP-CIT were acquired and reconstructed using filtered back protection reconstruction algorithm for pinhole collimator. Results: Size of usable field of view was proportional to the distance from the focal point and their relationship could be fitted into a linear equation (y=1.4x+0.5, x: distance). System sensitivity and planar spatial resolution at 3 cm measured using 1.0 mm aperture was 71 cps/MBq and 1.24 mm, respectively. In the SPECT image of rat brain with [I-123]FP-CIT acquired using 1.0 mm aperture, the distribution of dopamine transporter in the striatum was well identified in each hemisphere. Conclusion: We verified that this new animal SPECT system with the Phlilps ARGUS scanner and small apertures had sufficient performance for small animal imaging.

Recent Progress in Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Research : A Review of Papers Published in the Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering in 2012 (설비공학 분야의 최근 연구 동향 : 2012년 학회지 논문에 대한 종합적 고찰)

  • Han, Hwataik;Lee, Dae-Young;Kim, Sa Ryang;Kim, Hyun-Jung;Choi, Jong Min;Park, Jun-Seok;Kim, Sumin
    • Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.346-361
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    • 2013
  • This article reviews the papers published in the Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering during 2012. It is intended to understand the status of current research in the areas of heating, cooling, ventilation, sanitation, and indoor environments of buildings and plant facilities. The conclusions are as follows : (1) The research works on thermal and fluid engineering have been reviewed as groups of fluid machinery, pipes and valves, fuel cells and power plants, ground-coupled heat pumps, and general heat and mass transfer systems. Research issues are mainly focused on new and renewable energy systems, such as fuel cells, ocean thermal energy conversion power plants, and ground-coupled heat pump systems. (2) Research works on the heat transfer area have been reviewed in the categories of heat transfer characteristics, pool boiling and condensing heat transfer, and industrial heat exchangers. Researches on heat transfer characteristics included the results for natural convection in a square enclosure with two hot circular cylinders, non-uniform grooved tube considering tube expansion, single-tube annular baffle system, broadcasting LED light with ion wind generator, mechanical property and microstructure of SA213 P92 boiler pipe steel, and flat plate using multiple tripping wires. In the area of pool boiling and condensing heat transfer, researches on the design of a micro-channel heat exchanger for a heat pump, numerical simulation of a heat pump evaporator considering the pressure drop in the distributor and capillary tubes, critical heat flux on a thermoexcel-E enhanced surface, and the performance of a fin-and-tube condenser with non-uniform air distribution and different tube types were actively carried out. In the area of industrial heat exchangers, researches on a plate heat exchanger type dehumidifier, fin-tube heat exchanger, an electric circuit transient analogy model in a vertical closed loop ground heat exchanger, heat transfer characteristics of a double skin window for plant factory, a regenerative heat exchanger depending on its porous structure, and various types of plate heat exchangers were performed. (3) In the field of refrigeration, various studies were executed to improve refrigeration system performance, and to evaluate the applicability of alternative refrigerants and new components. Various topics were presented in the area of refrigeration cycle. Research issues mainly focused on the enhancement of the system performance. In the alternative refrigerant area, studies on CO2, R32/R152a mixture, and R1234yf were performed. Studies on the design and performance analysis of various compressors and evaporator were executed. (4) In building mechanical system research fields, twenty-nine studies were conducted to achieve effective design of mechanical systems, and also to maximize the energy efficiency of buildings. The topics of the studies included heating and cooling, HVAC system, ventilation, renewable energy systems, and lighting systems in buildings. New designs and performance tests using numerical methods and experiments provide useful information and key data, which can improve the energy efficiency of buildings. (5) In the fields of the architectural environment, studies for various purposes, such as indoor environment, building energy, and renewable energy were performed. In particular, building energy-related researches and renewable energy systems have been mainly studied, reflecting interests in global climate change, and efforts to reduce building energy consumption by government and architectural specialists. In addition, many researches have been conducted regarding indoor environments.

Modeling and mapping fuel moisture content using equilibrium moisture content computed from weather data of the automatic mountain meteorology observation system (AMOS) (산악기상자료와 목재평형함수율에 기반한 산림연료습도 추정식 개발)

  • Lee, HoonTaek;WON, Myoung-Soo;YOON, Suk-Hee;JANG, Keun-Chang
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.21-36
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    • 2019
  • Dead fuel moisture content is a key variable in fire danger rating as it affects fire ignition and behavior. This study evaluates simple regression models estimating the moisture content of standardized 10-h fuel stick (10-h FMC) at three sites with different characteristics(urban and outside/inside the forest). Equilibrium moisture content (EMC) was used as an independent variable, and in-situ measured 10-h FMC was used as a dependent variable and validation data. 10-h FMC spatial distribution maps were created for dates with the most frequent fire occurrence during 2013-2018. Also, 10-h FMC values of the dates were analyzed to investigate under which 10-h FMC condition forest fire is likely to occur. As the results, fitted equations could explain considerable part of the variance in 10-h FMC (62~78%). Compared to the validation data, the models performed well with R2 ranged from 0.53 to 0.68, root mean squared error (RMSE) ranged from 2.52% to 3.43%, and bias ranged from -0.41% to 1.10%. When the 10-h FMC model fitted for one site was applied to the other sites, $R^2$ was maintained as the same while RMSE and bias increased up to 5.13% and 3.68%, respectively. The major deficiency of the 10-h FMC model was that it poorly caught the difference in the drying process after rainfall between 10-h FMC and EMC. From the analysis of 10-h FMC during the dates fire occurred, more than 70% of the fires occurred under a 10-h FMC condition of less than 10.5%. Overall, the present study suggested a simple model estimating 10-h FMC with acceptable performance. Applying the 10-h FMC model to the automatic mountain weather observation system was successfully tested to produce a national-scale 10-h FMC spatial distribution map. This data will be fundamental information for forest fire research, and will support the policy maker.